（文华综合） 美国政府关门而推迟至周二才发布的美国9月经济数据显示零售销售和通胀降温，支持美联储在12月降 息。 国际铜研究组织（ICSG）称在最新月度中指出，全球精炼铜市场9月出现5.1万吨缺口，而8月尚有4.1万 吨盈余。 伦敦金属交易所（LME）三个月期铜上涨1.8%，报每吨11,025美元，为10月30日以来高位，因疲软的美 国数据提高了美联储12月降息的预期，且市场预期供应短缺。 ...

Group 1 - LME copper prices reached a two-week high, supported by a weaker dollar and a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran [1][3] - On June 24, LME three-month copper rose by $1.50, or 0.02%, closing at $9,669.00 per ton, with an intraday high of $9,760.50 [1][2] - The market is experiencing a significant outflow of copper from LME registered warehouses, with a 65% reduction in inventory since mid-February, now at 94,675 tons, the lowest since August 2023 [3] Group 2 - The current copper market is characterized by tight supply, as evidenced by the premium of $151 per ton for spot copper contracts over three-month copper, down from $280 the previous day [3] - The International Copper Study Group reported a global refined copper market shortage of 38,000 tons in April, contrasting with a surplus of 12,000 tons in March [3] - Other metals showed mixed performance, with LME three-month aluminum down by $9.50, or 0.37%, while lead increased by $16, or 0.8% [2][4]

Group 1 - U.S. wheat futures are rising due to escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict and drought conditions threatening supply [1] - Brazil's soybean exports for June are projected to decrease, raising concerns about potential supply shortages in the soybean market [1]