市场对后期走势看法分歧较大，主要一个点，则在于钢厂亏损，市场普遍认为下跌阻力较大。所以当前 基本面最突出的矛盾点，在于 "高成本"与"弱需求"之间的激烈博弈。焦煤、铁矿石等原材料价格持续 高位运行，使多数钢厂陷入亏损境地。这从成本端封杀了钢材价格深跌的空间，构成了市场的"硬底"。 然而，疲软的需求无法顺畅消化并传导高成本，导致成本支撑更多表现为"抗跌"而非"促涨"，市场陷入 上下两难的震荡格局。 短期来看，市场已步入典型的行业淡季运行模式，随着盘面的阶段性达到高位，市场目前缺乏打破僵局 的强力驱动。随着期货主力合约换月，前期基于宏观预期或政策憧憬拉涨的目标已基本达到，盘面继续 上攻缺乏新的题材。无论是供给侧的生产调整，还是需求侧的淡季现实，均无法提供足够的炒作热情。 市场心态将从之前的"追涨"转向"谨慎"与"兑现" 。从现货角度，短期内，钢材价格大概率将维持震荡格 局。下方有高成本带来的亏损支撑，跌价空间有限；上方则受制于日益强化的淡季需求约束和持续累积 的库存压力，上涨动力不足。市场将进入一个以时间换空间、等待新变量出现的阶段。 个人认为，面对当前"上有顶、下有底"的震荡市，市场参与者的操作策略应侧重于风险 ...

Market Strategy - The recent market rebound does not change the overall oscillating pattern, and it is advised to continue with a low-buying strategy [2] - The current tension in Sino-Japanese relations is a major factor restraining risk appetite, suggesting a cautious approach towards technology growth sectors [2][6] - The real estate market has been underperforming since the policy release last September, and any short-term price increases may not be sustainable without stronger policy support [2][6] Sector Strategy - The technology growth sector is sensitive to risk appetite, and a cautious approach is recommended in the current environment [2] - The cyclical consumer manufacturing sector may gain market consensus as it presents moderate risk characteristics [2] - The real estate sector requires significant fiscal policy support, such as mortgage interest subsidies, to boost market confidence [2][6] Defense and Military Industry - Recent U.S. arms sales to Japan may accelerate China's equipment development, given the increasing uncertainty in the Asia-Pacific region [2] - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in defense and military sectors due to the geopolitical climate [2]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: TWO BETA Model **Model Construction Idea**: This model is designed to identify and recommend sectors or themes with strong momentum, focusing on technology-related sectors and specific themes like military and Hong Kong automotive industries[2][3][10]. **Model Construction Process**: The report does not provide detailed steps or formulas for the construction of the TWO BETA model. However, it is used to track and recommend sectors based on their relative performance and momentum trends[2][3][10]. **Model Evaluation**: The model continues to recommend technology sectors, military themes, and Hong Kong automotive themes, indicating its focus on identifying upward trends in these areas[2][3][10]. - **Model Name**: Industry Allocation Model **Model Construction Idea**: This model aims to recommend sectors based on medium-term perspectives, focusing on sectors undergoing a turnaround or showing resilience in current market conditions[2][3][10]. **Model Construction Process**: The report does not provide detailed steps or formulas for the construction of the industry allocation model. It is used to identify sectors like innovative drugs in Hong Kong, new consumption themes, and financial sectors in Hong Kong[2][3][10]. **Model Evaluation**: The model highlights sectors with potential for recovery or sustained growth, such as Hong Kong innovative drugs, new consumption, and financial sectors, which are deemed to have intact trends[2][3][10]. - **Model Name**: Timing System **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses the distance between short-term and long-term moving averages to determine the market's overall environment and timing signals[1][9][13]. **Model Construction Process**: 1. Define the short-term moving average (20-day) and long-term moving average (120-day) for the Wind All A Index. 2. Calculate the distance between the two moving averages: $ \text{Distance} = \frac{\text{Short-term MA} - \text{Long-term MA}}{\text{Long-term MA}} $ - Short-term MA (20-day): 5130 - Long-term MA (120-day): 5075 - Distance: 1.09% 3. Interpret the signal: If the absolute value of the distance is less than 3%, the market is considered to be in a consolidation phase[1][9][13]. **Model Evaluation**: The model indicates that the market remains in a consolidation phase, with the short-term moving average above the long-term moving average, suggesting a lack of strong directional trends[1][9][13]. Backtesting Results of Models - **TWO BETA Model**: No specific backtesting results or quantitative metrics are provided in the report[2][3][10]. - **Industry Allocation Model**: No specific backtesting results or quantitative metrics are provided in the report[2][3][10]. - **Timing System**: - Short-term MA: 5130 - Long-term MA: 5075 - Distance: 1.09% - Absolute distance remains below 3%, confirming the market's consolidation phase[1][9][13]. Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: None explicitly mentioned in the report. Backtesting Results of Factors - **Factors**: No specific factors or their backtesting results are provided in the report.

Group 1 - The market is currently experiencing a rapid rotation of sectors, with a volatile pattern persisting and trading volume not showing significant increase, indicating a focus on existing stocks [1] - Short-term market conditions are expected to remain volatile, with attention on external tariff changes and the pace of domestic policy implementation [1] - A series of major financial policies are anticipated to be announced during the Lujiazui Forum from June 18 to 19, which may support market expectations and highlight structural opportunities [1] Group 2 - The market is likely to exhibit index fluctuations in June, with large-cap and quality indices expected to outperform [2] - The current economic fundamentals are relatively stable, with no significant decline in exports due to external changes, and domestic demand policies are still building momentum [2] - The financing demand from enterprises remains weak, and capital expenditure continues to trend downward, suggesting that strategies based on cash flow and ROE may gain traction [2]