投顾发展 | 投顾晨报 反弹不改震荡格局，继续逢低布局 朝闻道 20251126 市场策略 反弹不改震荡格局，继续逢低布局 风格策略 科技成长且战且退，中盘蓝筹先手布局 风险提示 消费复苏不及预期、供给侧减量政策落地不及预期、货币政策超预期收紧、地产逆周期政策不及预期、军 品订单和收入确认不及预期。 报告发布日期 2025 年 11 月 26 日 江韶军 执业证书编号：S0860525090001 jiangshaojun@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 行业策略 房地产：政策预期再起 主题策略 国防军工：我国装备建设或将提速，关注新质战斗力 防守策略生效，布局窗口将现：朝闻道 20251124 2025-11-23 震荡依旧，逢低布局：朝闻道 20251121 2025-11-20 震荡整固看风格，中盘蓝筹谋先机：朝闻 道 20251119 2025-11-18 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 ⚫ 近期市场企稳反弹，符合我们上期"布局窗口将现"的预判，但市场并未出现量价 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: TWO BETA Model **Model Construction Idea**: This model is designed to identify and recommend sectors or themes with strong momentum, focusing on technology-related sectors and specific themes like military and Hong Kong automotive industries[2][3][10]. **Model Construction Process**: The report does not provide detailed steps or formulas for the construction of the TWO BETA model. However, it is used to track and recommend sectors based on their relative performance and momentum trends[2][3][10]. **Model Evaluation**: The model continues to recommend technology sectors, military themes, and Hong Kong automotive themes, indicating its focus on identifying upward trends in these areas[2][3][10]. - **Model Name**: Industry Allocation Model **Model Construction Idea**: This model aims to recommend sectors based on medium-term perspectives, focusing on sectors undergoing a turnaround or showing resilience in current market conditions[2][3][10]. **Model Construction Process**: The report does not provide detailed steps or formulas for the construction of the industry allocation model. It is used to identify sectors like innovative drugs in Hong Kong, new consumption themes, and financial sectors in Hong Kong[2][3][10]. **Model Evaluation**: The model highlights sectors with potential for recovery or sustained growth, such as Hong Kong innovative drugs, new consumption, and financial sectors, which are deemed to have intact trends[2][3][10]. - **Model Name**: Timing System **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses the distance between short-term and long-term moving averages to determine the market's overall environment and timing signals[1][9][13]. **Model Construction Process**: 1. Define the short-term moving average (20-day) and long-term moving average (120-day) for the Wind All A Index. 2. Calculate the distance between the two moving averages: $ \text{Distance} = \frac{\text{Short-term MA} - \text{Long-term MA}}{\text{Long-term MA}} $ - Short-term MA (20-day): 5130 - Long-term MA (120-day): 5075 - Distance: 1.09% 3. Interpret the signal: If the absolute value of the distance is less than 3%, the market is considered to be in a consolidation phase[1][9][13]. **Model Evaluation**: The model indicates that the market remains in a consolidation phase, with the short-term moving average above the long-term moving average, suggesting a lack of strong directional trends[1][9][13]. Backtesting Results of Models - **TWO BETA Model**: No specific backtesting results or quantitative metrics are provided in the report[2][3][10]. - **Industry Allocation Model**: No specific backtesting results or quantitative metrics are provided in the report[2][3][10]. - **Timing System**: - Short-term MA: 5130 - Long-term MA: 5075 - Distance: 1.09% - Absolute distance remains below 3%, confirming the market's consolidation phase[1][9][13]. Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: None explicitly mentioned in the report. Backtesting Results of Factors - **Factors**: No specific factors or their backtesting results are provided in the report.

Group 1 - The market is currently experiencing a rapid rotation of sectors, with a volatile pattern persisting and trading volume not showing significant increase, indicating a focus on existing stocks [1] - Short-term market conditions are expected to remain volatile, with attention on external tariff changes and the pace of domestic policy implementation [1] - A series of major financial policies are anticipated to be announced during the Lujiazui Forum from June 18 to 19, which may support market expectations and highlight structural opportunities [1] Group 2 - The market is likely to exhibit index fluctuations in June, with large-cap and quality indices expected to outperform [2] - The current economic fundamentals are relatively stable, with no significant decline in exports due to external changes, and domestic demand policies are still building momentum [2] - The financing demand from enterprises remains weak, and capital expenditure continues to trend downward, suggesting that strategies based on cash flow and ROE may gain traction [2]