2025 年 09 月 27 日 宏观研究团队 低基数与反内卷共振修复利润 ——兼评 8 月企业利润数据 hening@kysec.cn 何宁（分析师） 陈策（分析师） chence@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522110002 证书编号：S0790524020002 事件：2025 年 1-8 月全国规上工企利润累计同比 0.9%，前值-1.7%；营业收入累 计同比 2.3%，前值 2.3%。 低基数叠加统一大市场纵深推进，工业企业景气度边际回升 1、8 月工企营收小幅改善、利润增速显著转正。测算 8 月营收当月同比约 2.3%、 较前值改善了 1.2 个百分点；利润当月同比则明显回升了 21.9 个百分点至 20.4%， 连续 3 个月边际改善。拆分来看（利润增速=工业增加值*PPI*利润率同比），三 因子对 8 月利润增速的贡献分别为+5.6、-3.2、+17.7 个百分点。价（PPI）的负 贡献见底回升，利（利润率同比）由负贡献大幅转为正贡献。分类型来看，8 月 国企利润改善较快，明显好于私营和股份制工企。 2、低基数叠加统一大市场纵深推进，利润率同比回升。8 月工业企业每百元营 收构成中 ...

Core Viewpoint - Indonesia, as the largest archipelagic country in Southeast Asia, faces significant social unrest driven by wealth disparity and political challenges, which presents both risks and opportunities for investment and business development [5][6][9]. Group 1: Economic Landscape - Indonesia's GDP per capita in 2023 is approximately $4,940.55, indicating a moderately high-income level, but the country struggles to achieve the desired 8% annual GDP growth rate, currently hovering around 5% [9]. - In 2023, Indonesia attracted $220.5 billion in foreign investment, with Singapore, China, and Hong Kong being the top three sources. Notably, a significant portion of Singapore's investments is attributed to Chinese enterprises [9][22]. - The government aims for Indonesia to become the fifth-largest economy globally by 2045, reflecting a long-term vision for economic growth [7]. Group 2: Social Issues and Wealth Disparity - The wealth gap in Indonesia is stark, with the richest 10% controlling 30-35% of the national income, while the poorest 40% hold only about 15% [11]. - The poverty rate in Indonesia is reported at 68.3% based on a typical poverty line, indicating a significant portion of the population remains economically marginalized [12]. - The political structure has historically contributed to this inequality, with a highly centralized government that has struggled to effectively distribute resources and power [13][14]. Group 3: Business Environment and Opportunities - The Indonesian government has implemented policies to enhance the business environment, such as the Omnibus Law, which simplifies investment regulations and offers tax incentives in free trade zones [25]. - Chinese enterprises have played a crucial role in Indonesia's economic development, particularly in sectors like nickel processing, infrastructure, and e-commerce, significantly impacting local job creation and economic stability [22][23][25]. - The rise of fintech and e-commerce, driven by investments from Chinese companies, has transformed the payment landscape in Indonesia, promoting cashless transactions and enhancing consumer engagement [25]. Group 4: Infrastructure Development - Infrastructure development is critical for Indonesia's economic growth, with ongoing projects like the Jakarta-Bandung high-speed railway symbolizing significant investment in connectivity [22]. - The need for improved communication networks has led to substantial investments from companies like Huawei and ZTE, which are establishing a robust telecommunications infrastructure [22]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The balance between social unrest and economic development will be pivotal for Indonesia's future, as the country navigates its path towards becoming a more integrated and prosperous economy [26][27]. - The presence of Chinese businesses in Indonesia is seen as both a risk and an opportunity, shaping the country's economic landscape amid ongoing social challenges [27].

Core Viewpoint - The profit growth rate continues to recover, but it is more related to a low base, and current cost pressures remain high [3][9][57] Group 1: Profit and Revenue Analysis - In July, industrial profits showed a month-on-month increase of 3.3 percentage points to -1.1%, driven by cost and expense rate improvements [3][9] - The cumulative profit year-on-year decreased by 1.7%, while revenue growth was 2.3%, slightly down from the previous month's 2.5% [2][8] - The cost rate for the consumer manufacturing chain remains at a historical high of 84.2%, with the petrochemical and metallurgy chains also experiencing increases [3][9][57] Group 2: Industry-Specific Insights - The consumer manufacturing sector saw a significant decline in revenue growth, with a year-on-year drop of 2.6 percentage points to 6.2% in July [4][23] - The automotive industry's revenue growth fell sharply by 7.9 percentage points to 4.1% compared to the previous month [4][23] - In contrast, the petrochemical and metallurgy sectors experienced slight improvements in revenue, with increases of 1.1 and 1.2 percentage points, respectively [4][23] Group 3: Cost and Inventory Trends - The overall cost pressure for industrial enterprises remains high, with accounts receivable turnover rates showing no significant improvement [29][26] - Actual inventory growth saw a slight rebound, with upstream and midstream inventories performing better [44][59] - The nominal inventory decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 2.4%, while actual inventory increased by 0.3 percentage points to 7.6% [59][44] Group 4: Future Outlook - The ongoing cost pressures are primarily due to downstream "involution" investments, leading to rigid cost increases [29][58] - There is an expectation for a long-term trend of profit recovery, supported by continuous domestic demand recovery, although attention should be paid to the negative impact of upstream price surges on profitability [29][58]

Profit and Revenue Trends - In July, industrial enterprises' cumulative revenue increased by 2.3% year-on-year, down from 2.5% in the previous month[7] - Cumulative profit showed a decline of 1.7% year-on-year, slightly improved from a decline of 1.8% previously[7] - The profit growth rate in July rebounded by 3.3 percentage points to -1.1%[3] Cost and Profitability Analysis - Cost and expense rates contributed significantly to profit recovery, with costs up by 9.8 percentage points to 5.9% and expenses up by 0.5 percentage points to -1.6%[3] - The cost rate's impact on profit year-on-year decreased by 16.8 percentage points to -10.9% in July 2024 compared to the previous month[3] - The profit margin for industrial enterprises improved, with July's profit rising by 2.8 percentage points to -1.5%[28] Sector Performance - The automotive sector experienced a significant profit decline of 113.7 percentage points to -17.1% in July, indicating high volatility in specific industries[14] - Revenue growth in the consumer manufacturing sector fell sharply, with a year-on-year decline of 2.6 percentage points to 6.2%[21] - The petrochemical and metallurgy sectors showed slight revenue improvements, with increases of 1.1 and 1.2 percentage points to 0.2% and 2.7%, respectively[21] Inventory and Receivables - The inventory growth rate for industrial enterprises slightly increased, with nominal inventory down by 0.7 percentage points to 2.4%[39] - Accounts receivable as a percentage of total assets rose to 14.6%, indicating prolonged collection cycles[23] - Actual inventory growth improved by 0.3 percentage points to 7.6%, particularly in upstream and midstream sectors[39]

Core Viewpoint - The profit growth rate continues to recover, but it is largely due to a low base effect, and current cost pressures remain high [3][9][57] Group 1: Profit and Cost Analysis - In July, industrial profits showed a month-on-month increase of 3.3 percentage points to -1.1%, driven by cost and expense rate improvements [3][9] - The cost rate for the consumer manufacturing chain remains at a historical high of 84.2%, while the petrochemical and metallurgy chains also saw increases in cost rates to 85.9% and 86.8% respectively [3][9][57] - Other gains and short-term fluctuations in specific industries significantly constrained monthly profits, particularly in the automotive sector, which experienced a dramatic profit growth decline of 113.7 percentage points to -17.1% [3][18][57] Group 2: Revenue Trends - July revenue showed signs of weakening, particularly in the consumer manufacturing sector, with actual revenue growth declining by 2.6 percentage points to 6.2% year-on-year [4][23][58] - The automotive industry's revenue growth fell by 7.9 percentage points to 4.1%, while the petrochemical and metallurgy sectors experienced slight improvements [4][23][58] Group 3: Future Outlook - Current cost pressures for industrial enterprises remain significant, necessitating ongoing monitoring of the effects of the "anti-involution" policy [4][29][58] - The long-term trend of profit recovery for enterprises is expected to continue, supported by a gradual easing of rigid cost pressures and ongoing recovery in domestic demand [4][29][58] Group 4: Regular Tracking - Industrial enterprise profits have shown a recovery, primarily due to improvements in operating profit margins, with July profits increasing by 2.8 percentage points to -1.5% [5][59] - Revenue growth for industrial enterprises has declined, with significant drops in sectors such as instruments and automobiles, where revenue fell by 9.7% and 7.9% respectively [5][59] - Actual inventory growth has slightly rebounded, particularly in the upstream and midstream sectors, with nominal inventory decreasing by 0.7 percentage points to 2.4% [5][59][44]

Group 1: Inflation and Policy Response - The core focus of July's policy is on "anti-involution," with multiple departments addressing the phenomenon of market "involution" [2][11] - The expected inflation rates for July are projected at -3.1% for PPI and 0% for CPI, indicating weak price performance despite rising commodity prices [2][11] - The increase in commodity prices is driven by expectations of supply contraction, but excess supply in downstream sectors limits the transmission of price increases from upstream to downstream [2][24] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Industrial production remains resilient, with July's industrial value added expected to be around 6.4%, despite a decline in new orders [4][61] - The PMI production index indicates that production is still expanding, with notable increases in sectors like general equipment and black metal rolling [4][55] - The supply situation is characterized by a divergence, where production is better than demand, contrary to market expectations of significant supply contraction [4][48] Group 3: Demand Structure - Demand is showing signs of differentiation, with weak goods demand but stronger service demand, leading to a projected slight decline in actual GDP to 4.9% for July [6][73] - Export performance is expected to exceed expectations in July due to the residual effects of "export grabbing," but there are concerns about a potential decline in exports in September [6][73] - The consumer market is experiencing a potential decline in goods consumption due to a "subsidy gap" in the "old-for-new" program, while service consumption is expected to improve due to increased travel activity [8][89] Group 4: Investment Trends - Investment performance is mixed, with real estate and manufacturing investments likely to decline, while infrastructure and service sector investments may see improvement [8][102] - The acceleration of special bond issuance is expected to support infrastructure investment, with asphalt construction rates showing an upward trend [8][102] - The manufacturing sector faces downward pressure due to the nearing end of equipment renewal demand, while real estate investment is likely to continue weakening [8][102] Group 5: Economic Outlook - The main logic of economic operation in July revolves around "price increases," but the sustainability of these increases is relatively weak due to supply-side production increases and weak demand [9][112] - The overall economic indicators suggest a nominal GDP growth of 3.9% and an actual GDP growth of 4.9% for July, reflecting the current economic conditions [9][112]

Group 1: Inflation and Policy - The core focus of July's policy is on "anti-involution," with multiple departments addressing the phenomenon of market "involution" [2][11] - The expected PPI and CPI for July are projected to be -3.1% and 0% respectively, indicating weak price performance despite rising expectations of inflation due to supply constraints [2][11] - The "anti-involution" policy aims to regulate low-price disorderly competition and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity [2][11] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Supply has not significantly contracted, with industrial production showing resilience and exports recovering, leading to an expected industrial value-added growth of around 6.4% in July [4][5] - The PMI production index remains above the expansion threshold, indicating that supply has not experienced substantial contraction [4][5] - The production indices for sectors with strong price increases, such as metallurgy, have shown significant growth, while sectors like petrochemicals and consumer manufacturing have faced declines [4][5][55] Group 3: Demand Structure - Demand is showing structural differentiation, with weak goods demand but stronger service demand, leading to an expected slight decline in actual GDP growth to 4.9% in July [6][73] - Exports are expected to rise to around 6.8% in July, driven by a low base effect and the residual impact of "export grabbing" [6][73] - The consumer market is experiencing a potential decline in goods consumption due to a "window period" for subsidies, while service consumption is expected to improve due to increased travel and dining activities [8][89] Group 4: Investment Trends - Investment performance is mixed, with real estate and manufacturing investments likely to decline, while infrastructure and service sector investments may improve [8][102] - The acceleration of special bond issuance is expected to support infrastructure investment, with asphalt construction rates showing an increase [8][102] - Manufacturing investment faces downward pressure as equipment renewal demand approaches its peak, while real estate investment is likely to continue weakening [8][102] Group 5: Economic Outlook - The main logic of economic operation in July revolves around "price increases," but supply-side production is increasing while demand remains weak, suggesting limited sustainability of price increases [9][112] - The expected nominal GDP growth for July is projected at 3.9%, with actual GDP growth at 4.9% [9][112]

Core Viewpoints - The profit growth in June is primarily attributed to improved cost pressures and a rebound in revenue's contribution to profit year-on-year. The profit margin improved as cost pressures eased, with the profit rate rising by 4.6 percentage points to -4.4% [3][8][55] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to limit the downward space for profits, as it helps alleviate cost pressures and supports the recovery of domestic demand [4][24][56] Revenue and Profit Analysis - In June, industrial enterprises' revenue growth increased by 0.8 percentage points to 1.6% year-on-year, with significant contributions from the instrumentation, automotive, and petroleum coal processing sectors, which saw increases of 7.2, 4.2, and 3.6 percentage points respectively [5][34][57] - The actual revenue growth for the consumer manufacturing chain rose by 1 percentage point to 8.8% due to strong export support, while the coal and metallurgy chains experienced a decline in revenue growth, falling by 0.3 percentage points to -0.9% [4][20][56] Cost Structure and Inventory - The cost rate for industrial enterprises in June was 85.2%, down 32.3 basis points year-on-year, with significant reductions in the petrochemical chain's cost rate, which fell by 37.5 basis points to -0.1% [3][13][55] - Actual inventory growth saw a slight increase, with nominal inventory declining by 0.4 percentage points to 3.1% year-on-year, while actual inventory rose by 0.3 percentage points to 7.3% [42][57] Future Outlook - The ongoing "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to enhance capacity utilization and improve corporate profitability, alongside a continuous recovery in domestic demand, indicating a long-term upward trend in corporate profits [4][24][56] - Attention should be paid to the potential negative impact of "super-inflation" in upstream prices on corporate profitability, as downstream sectors face dual pressures from rigid and elastic costs [4][24][56]

Group 1: Export Indicators - In July, foreign trade port cargo volume increased by 8.9% year-on-year, indicating potential short-term improvement in actual export volume[1] - Container throughput from China to Vietnam surged to over 60%, while shipments to the U.S. declined, with a drop to -7% by July 20[1][15] - The U.S. container booking volume from China has remained low, showing a year-on-year decrease of -16.9% since late June[1][15] Group 2: Price and Freight Rate Trends - The CCFI composite index fell for three consecutive weeks in July, down 4.8% compared to the end of June, with significant declines in rates for the U.S. West Coast routes[2][18] - The relative freight rates for Southeast Asia and East-West Africa routes have increased, indicating better export performance to emerging markets compared to the U.S.[2][24] Group 3: Production and Export Correlation - In July, production indicators for exports rose by 0.5 percentage points, with significant contributions from the consumption and metallurgy chains[3][4] - The production growth rate for key industrial products aligns closely with export delivery value growth, suggesting a resilient export outlook[3][4] Group 4: Macroeconomic Indicators - Processing trade imports rose by 3.3% in June, suggesting a potential export increase of around 8% in July[5] - The Yiwu small commodity export price index remains high, supporting the expectation of increased cross-border commodity export growth in July[5] Group 5: Risks and Future Outlook - There are concerns about a potential decline in export figures after September due to signs of weakening in strong-performing export sectors[6] - New export orders in the metallurgy and consumption chains have shown a downward trend, which may indicate a decrease in export readings by the end of Q3[6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article suggests that July's export indicators show signs of improvement, particularly in exports to emerging countries, with a marginal increase of 8% in foreign trade port cargo volume since July [2][8][112] - The foreign trade port container throughput in July 2025 increased by 8.9% year-on-year, indicating a potential short-term improvement in actual export volume [2][8][112] - The container cargo volume from China to Vietnam rose significantly, reaching over 60% year-on-year, while the volume to the United States declined [2][13][112] Group 2 - Container shipping rates have been declining since July, with the CCFI composite index dropping 4.8% over three weeks, reflecting various factors including export demand and shipping capacity [3][21][113] - The relative price changes in shipping routes indicate better export performance to emerging countries compared to the U.S., with the price ratio of Southeast Asia and East-West Africa routes increasing [3][32][113] Group 3 - Production indicators suggest a rebound in export-related production, particularly in the consumption and metallurgy chains, with a 0.5% increase in export production indicators in July [4][5][114] - The external sales of crude steel and polyester filament maintained positive growth, indicating resilience in related industries [4][5][114] Group 4 - Processing trade imports, which lead exports by about one month, increased by 3.3% in June, suggesting a potential rise in exports in July to around 8% [6][92][100] - The Yiwu small commodity export price index remains high, supporting higher growth rates in cross-border exports to Europe and the UK [6][95][100] Group 5 - Overall, the July export production index increased by 0.5 percentage points, indicating a continuation of export improvement [5][85][115] - The weighted year-on-year growth of production indicators related to foreign trade aligns well with actual export performance, suggesting a positive outlook for July exports [5][85][115]