知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 | 纯不 -苯乙烯目报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 张晓珍 Z0003135 2026年1月30日 | | | | | | | 上游价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 单位 | 1月29日 | 1月28日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | | 布伦特原油(3月) | 70.71 | 68.40 | 2.31 | 3.4% | | | 美元/桶 WTI原油 (3月) | 65.42 | 63.21 | 2.21 | 3.5% | | | CFR日本石脑油 | રેત્રેસ | 585 | 11 | 1.9% | | | CFR东北亚乙烯 | 700 | 700 | 0 | 0.0% | | | CFR中国纳本 | 781 | 763 | 18 | 2.4% | 美元/吨 | | 纯本-石脑油 | 185 | 178 | 7 | 3.9% | | | 乙烯-石脑油 | 104 | 115 | -11 | -9.6% | | | 纯苯(中石 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, it is recommended to take profit on the heavy oil crack spread and go long on crude oil at dips within the shale oil break - even cost range [3] - For methanol, considering its low current valuation and improved future outlook, there is limited downside. With geopolitical expectations from Iran, it is feasible to go long at dips [4] - For urea, due to open import windows and expected start - up recovery at the end of January, it is advisable to short on rallies [7] - For rubber, the chemical sector is short - term strong. Rubber has weak seasonality, so beware of RU price drops. Adopt a neutral approach, trade short - term on the market, and go short if RU2605 breaks below 16000. Partially build a position for buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [13] - For PVC, in the context of strong domestic supply and weak demand, with poor fundamentals, short - term factors support it, but in the medium - term, short on rallies is the main strategy [16] - For pure benzene and styrene, as styrene non - integrated profits have been significantly repaired, it is time to gradually take profit [19] - For polyethylene, with OPEC+ plans and inventory changes, although PE valuation has room to decline, there is support for the price. In the seasonal off - season, the overall demand is weak [22] - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand, with high inventory pressure, wait for the supply - surplus pattern to change in the first quarter of next year. Go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at dips [25] - For PX, it is expected to maintain a stock - building pattern before the maintenance season. In the medium - term, there are opportunities to go long following crude oil at dips [28] - For PTA, it is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - building stage. There is a risk of processing fee correction in the short - term, but there is room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. Look for opportunities to go long at dips [31] - For ethylene glycol, the industry is facing high inventory and high - load pressure. Without further domestic production cuts, the valuation is expected to be compressed [34] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures rose 16.80 yuan/barrel, or 3.69%, to 472.50 yuan/barrel; related refined oil futures also had significant increases. US EIA weekly data showed changes in crude oil and refined product inventories, such as a 2.29 - million - barrel draw in commercial crude oil inventories to 423.75 million barrels [2] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Take profit on the heavy oil crack spread and go long on crude oil at dips within the shale oil break - even cost range [3] Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in different regions had different changes, with the main futures contract rising 29.00 yuan/ton to 2352 yuan/ton, and MTO profit changing by 17 yuan [4] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Given its low current valuation and improved future outlook, with geopolitical expectations from Iran, it is feasible to go long at dips [4] Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot price changes varied, with the overall basis at - 67 yuan/ton, and the main futures contract rising 18 yuan/ton to 1817 yuan/ton [6] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Due to open import windows and expected start - up recovery at the end of January, short on rallies [7] Rubber - **Market Information**: The chemical sector showed a volatile rebound. There were different views on natural rubber from bulls and bears. As of January 22, 2026, tire enterprise operating rates and rubber inventories were reported. Spot prices of some rubber products also changed [10][11][12] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The chemical sector is short - term strong. Rubber has weak seasonality, so beware of RU price drops. Adopt a neutral approach, trade short - term on the market, and go short if RU2605 breaks below 16000. Partially build a position for buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [13] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 18 yuan to 4895 yuan, with changes in spot prices, basis, 5 - 9 spread, etc. Cost - end prices and production and demand - end data also changed, such as a decline in overall production rate and an increase in social inventory [15] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the context of strong domestic supply and weak demand, with poor fundamentals, short - term factors support it, but in the medium - term, short on rallies is the main strategy [16] Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: There were changes in the prices and spreads of pure benzene and styrene, as well as changes in upstream and downstream operating rates and port inventories. For example, the upstream operating rate of pure benzene decreased by 1.23% to 69.63%, and the port inventory of styrene increased by 0.71 million tons to 10.06 million tons [18] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: As styrene non - integrated profits have been significantly repaired, it is time to gradually take profit [19] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract of polyethylene rose 82 yuan/ton to 7049 yuan/ton, with changes in spot prices, basis, upstream operating rates, and inventory. The upstream operating rate increased by 1.23% to 81.56%, and production enterprise inventory decreased by 4.51 million tons [21] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With OPEC+ plans and inventory changes, although PE valuation has room to decline, there is support for the price. In the seasonal off - season, the overall demand is weak [22] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract of polypropylene rose 92 yuan/ton to 6870 yuan/ton, with changes in spot prices, basis, upstream operating rates, and inventory. The upstream operating rate decreased slightly by 0.01% to 76.61%, and various inventories decreased [23] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the context of weak supply and demand, with high inventory pressure, wait for the supply - surplus pattern to change in the first quarter of next year. Go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at dips [25] PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract fell 12 yuan to 7380 yuan, with changes in CFR price, basis, 3 - 5 spread, etc. PX and PTA operating rates and inventory data were also reported. For example, China's PX operating rate increased by 0.3% to 89.2% [27] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to maintain a stock - building pattern before the maintenance season. In the medium - term, there are opportunities to go long following crude oil at dips [28] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 38 yuan to 5332 yuan, with changes in spot prices, basis, 5 - 9 spread, etc. PTA and downstream operating rates and inventory data were reported. The downstream operating rate decreased by 1.7% to 84.7% [30] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - building stage. There is a risk of processing fee correction in the short - term, but there is room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. Look for opportunities to go long at dips [31] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 13 yuan to 3957 yuan, with changes in spot prices, basis, 5 - 9 spread, etc. Supply - and demand - end operating rates and inventory data were reported. The supply - end operating rate increased by 1.4% to 74.4%, and the port inventory increased by 6.3 million tons [33] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industry is facing high inventory and high - load pressure. Without further domestic production cuts, the valuation is expected to be compressed [34]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current geopolitical situation in Latin America does not provide sufficient bullish support for overall oil prices, but the valuation of heavy - oil products will be significantly increased. The valuation of heavy - oil products is upgraded to overweight, and the crack spreads of asphalt or fuel oil are expected to have upward momentum [2]. - The current valuation of methanol is low, and its outlook for the coming year is marginally improving with limited downside. Despite short - term negative pressure, the recent geopolitical instability in Iran has brought certain geopolitical expectations, making it feasible to go long on dips [4]. - The current situation of the domestic - foreign price difference has opened the import window. Coupled with the expectation of increased production at the end of January, negative expectations for the urea fundamentals are approaching, so it is advisable to take profits on rallies [6]. - For rubber, a neutral approach is currently adopted, with a temporary wait - and - see attitude. It is recommended to partially close the hedging position of buying RU2605 and selling RU2609 [13]. - For PVC, the comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a historically low level, with relatively small short - term valuation pressure. However, the reduction in supply is limited, and production is at a historical high. Domestic demand is entering the off - season, and the demand side is under pressure. Although the Indian BIS policy has been revoked and no anti - dumping duties are expected, there is still off - season pressure. Overall, the supply - demand imbalance persists, and a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended in the medium term before significant production cuts in the industry [15]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is currently moderately low, with a large upward repair space for valuation. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant. The production of styrene is increasing, and its port inventory is continuously decreasing. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [19]. - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in the first quarter of 2026, and the oil price may have bottomed out. The spot price of polyethylene is rising, and the downward space for PE valuation still exists. The overall inventory is expected to decline from a high level, providing support for prices. In the long term, it is advisable to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [22]. - For polypropylene, the EIA monthly report predicts a slight reduction in global oil inventories, and the supply glut may ease. There are no capacity expansion plans in the first half of 2026, and the pressure on the supply side will be relieved. In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. The price of the futures contract is expected to bottom out after the supply glut situation changes in the first quarter of next year [25]. - For PX, the current PX load remains high, and there are many maintenance activities for downstream PTA. Before the maintenance season, PX is expected to maintain a slight inventory - building pattern. Although the valuation has increased significantly, the supply - demand situation of both PX and downstream PTA will be strong next year. Attention should be paid to the risk of price corrections in the short term, and opportunities to go long on dips should be considered in the medium term [28]. - For PTA, the supply side will maintain a high level of maintenance in the short term, and the polyester fiber profit is under pressure. The load of the industry will gradually decline due to the off - season. After a short - term inventory reduction, PTA is expected to enter an inventory - building period during the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the risk of price corrections in the short term, and opportunities to go long on dips should be considered in the medium term [31]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load of the industry is still relatively high. Although the expected import volume in January will decline, the decline is limited, and the port inventory - building cycle will continue. In the medium term, there is an expectation of further profit compression and production reduction under the pressure of new capacity. The valuation is currently moderately low compared to the same period in previous years. In the absence of further production cuts in China, the valuation is expected to be compressed [33]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures contract closed down 14.80 yuan/barrel, a 3.39% decline, at 421.70 yuan/barrel. The main futures contracts of related refined oil products also declined: high - sulfur fuel oil closed down 29.00 yuan/ton, a 1.18% decline, at 2427.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil closed down 65.00 yuan/ton, a 2.20% decline, at 2891.00 yuan/ton. European ARA weekly data showed that gasoline inventory increased by 1.38 million barrels to 10.52 million barrels, a 15.07% increase; diesel inventory decreased by 0.12 million barrels to 14.61 million barrels, a 0.81% decrease; fuel oil inventory increased by 0.37 million barrels to 7.06 million barrels, a 5.60% increase; naphtha inventory decreased by 0.83 million barrels to 4.63 million barrels, a 15.18% decrease; aviation kerosene inventory decreased by 0.36 million barrels to 7.82 million barrels, a 4.43% decrease; the overall refined oil inventory increased by 0.44 million barrels to 44.64 million barrels, a 1.00% increase [1]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The spot prices in different regions showed changes: Jiangsu changed by 5 yuan/ton, Lunan by - 15 yuan/ton, Henan by 10 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia by - 20 yuan/ton [3]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot prices in different regions had the following changes: Shandong changed by 0 yuan/ton, Henan by 10 yuan/ton, Hebei by - 10 yuan/ton, Hubei by 0 yuan/ton, Jiangsu by 0 yuan/ton, Shanxi by 0 yuan/ton, and Northeast China by 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at - 68 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 19 yuan/ton, at 1768 yuan/ton [5]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price fluctuated within a narrow range. The bulls of natural rubber RU were optimistic due to seasonal expectations and demand expectations, believing that the weather and the current situation of rubber plantations in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, might limit rubber production growth, and the seasonality of rubber usually turns bullish in the second half of the year, with improved demand expectations in China. The bears were pessimistic due to weak demand, believing that the macro - economic outlook was uncertain, demand was in the seasonal off - season, and the expected postponement of EUDR and the supply benefits might be less than expected. The tire operating rate showed marginal deterioration. As of December 25, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 62.20%, 2.46 percentage points lower than the previous week and 0.02 percentage points lower than the same period last year, with slower shipments and higher inventory pressure. The operating rate of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 73.74%, 0.98 percentage points higher than the previous week but 5.05 percentage points lower than the same period last year, with slower shipping rhythms and higher inventory pressure. As of December 21, 2025, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 118.2 million tons, a 3 - million - ton increase from the previous month, a 2.5% increase; the total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 77.4 million tons, a 3.4% increase; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 40.8 million tons, a 1% increase; the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 50.92 (+1.5) million tons. In the spot market, the price of Thai standard mixed rubber was 14800 (+150) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1875 (+20) US dollars, STR20 mixed was 1875 (+20) US dollars, Jiangsu and Zhejiang butadiene was 8650 (+200) yuan, and North China butadiene rubber was 11050 (+50) yuan [9][10][11]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell by 41 yuan to 4764 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4480 (- 20) yuan/ton, the basis was - 284 (+11) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 131 (+3) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was reported at 2325 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 820 (0) yuan/ton, the price of ethylene was 745 (0) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 690 (- 13) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 78.6%, a 1.4% increase from the previous period; among them, the calcium carbide method was 78.4%, a 0.1% decrease, and the ethylene method was 79.3%, a 5% increase. The overall downstream operating rate was 44.5%, a 0.9% decrease. The in - factory inventory was 30.9 million tons (+0.3), and the social inventory was 106.3 million tons (+0.3) [14]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: In terms of fundamentals, the cost of pure benzene in East China was 5323 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27.5 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 5406 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27.5 yuan/ton; the pure benzene basis was - 83.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 29.5 yuan/ton. In the spot - futures market, the spot price of styrene was 6950 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 6739 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52 yuan/ton; the basis was 211 yuan/ton, an increase of 102 yuan/ton; the BZN spread was 142.87 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.25 yuan/ton; the profit of non - integrated EB plants was - 71.275 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.725 yuan/ton; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the upstream operating rate was 70.7%, a 1.57% increase; the inventory at Jiangsu ports was 13.88 million tons, a decrease of 0.05 million tons. On the demand side, the weighted operating rate of the three S products was 42.24%, a 1.77% increase; the operating rate of PS was 59.40%, a 4.90% increase; the operating rate of EPS was 52.56%, a 0.76% increase; the operating rate of ABS was 69.40%, a 0.70% decrease [18]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: Fundamentally, the closing price of the main contract was 6449 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan/ton; the spot price was 6435 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton; the basis was - 14 yuan/ton, an increase of 58 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 84.2%, a 0.36% increase. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises was 37.07 million tons, a decrease of 8.79 million tons from the previous week, and the inventory of traders was 2.76 million tons, a decrease of 0.49 million tons from the previous week. The average downstream operating rate was 41.15%, a 0.68% decrease. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 47 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan decrease from the previous week [21]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: Fundamentally, the closing price of the main contract was 6330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton; the spot price was 6300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis was - 30 yuan/ton, an increase of 18 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 76.69%, a 0.16% decrease. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises was 49.07 million tons, a decrease of 4.26 million tons from the previous week; the inventory of traders was 17.72 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons from the previous week; the port inventory was 6.63 million tons, a decrease of 0.24 million tons from the previous week. The average downstream operating rate was 52.76%, a 0.48% decrease. The LL - PP spread was 119 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan decrease from the previous week [23][24]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract fell by 50 yuan to 7210 yuan, the PX CFR price fell by 9 US dollars to 884 US dollars, and the basis was - 54 yuan (- 29) after conversion according to the central parity of the RMB. The 3 - 5 spread was - 2 yuan (+4). The operating rate of PX in China was 90.6%, a 2.4% increase; the operating rate in Asia was 80.9%, a 1.4% increase. Domestically, Fujia Dahua restarted and expanded its capacity. The operating rate of PTA was 78.1%, a 5.6% increase; Dushan Energy and Zhongtai restarted, and Weilian Chemical increased its production. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 43.3 million tons of PX to China in December, a 4.2 - million - ton increase from the same period last year. In terms of inventory, the inventory at the end of November was 402 million tons, a 5 - million - ton decrease from the previous month. In terms of valuation and cost, PXN was 357 US dollars (+2), South Korea's PX - MX was 146 US dollars (+3), and the naphtha crack spread was 90 US dollars (+1) [27]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell by 64 yuan to 5046 yuan, the East China spot price fell by 65 yuan to 5030 yuan, the basis was - 49 yuan (- 3), and the 5 - 9 spread was 90 yuan (- 10). The operating rate of PTA was 78.1%, a 5.6% increase; Dushan Energy and Zhongtai restarted, and Weilian Chemical increased its production. The downstream operating rate was 90.8%, a 0.4% increase; Hengyi's 55 - million - ton chemical fiber and China Resources' 30 - million - ton bottle - grade chip restarted, while Yisheng's 25 - million - ton bottle - grade chip, Hengyi's 55 - million - ton filament, and Sanfangxiang's 50 - million - ton bottle - grade chip were under maintenance. The terminal texturing operating rate decreased by 5% to 74%, and the loom operating rate decreased by 1% to 59%. In terms of inventory, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on December 26 was 205.5 million tons, a 5.2 - million - ton decrease from the previous month. In terms of valuation and cost, the spot processing fee of PTA decreased by 13 yuan to 336 yuan, and the futures processing fee decreased by 31 yuan to 316 yuan [30]. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell by 71 yuan to 3732 yuan, the East China spot price fell by 41 yuan to 3640 yuan, the basis was - 126 yuan (+15), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 90 yuan (+3). On the supply side, the operating rate of ethylene glycol was 73.7%, a 0.4% increase; among them, the operating rate of syngas - based production was 75.9%, a 1.4% decrease, and the operating rate of ethylene - based production was 72.5%, a 1.5% increase. Among the syngas - based plants, Tianye's plant resumed operation after an accidental shutdown, Huayi restarted, and Henan Coal Industry replaced the catalyst; among the petrochemical plants, Far East Union restarted; overseas, the plant of Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China, shut down. The downstream operating rate was 90.8%, a 0.4% increase

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet increasing significantly, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently, it's advisable to wait and see, waiting for a decline in OPEC exports when oil prices fall for verification [3]. - For methanol, after the bullish factors are realized, the market will enter a short - term consolidation. There are still pressures on the port, and the fundamentals have some pressure. It is expected to be sorted out at a low level, and it is recommended to wait and see [6]. - For urea, the overall supply - demand situation has improved. With support from export policies and costs, the downside space is limited. It is expected to build a bottom in a range. At low prices, consider going long on dips [10]. - For rubber, currently hold a neutral view, recommend short - term operations, and hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [15]. - For PVC, the domestic supply is strong and demand is weak, and the fundamentals are poor. In the short - term, there is a rebound driven by sentiment. In the medium - term, the idea is to short on rallies before significant production cuts in the industry [17]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to low, and there is a large space for valuation repair. Before the first quarter of next year, consider going long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [20]. - For polyethylene, the long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. Consider going long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [23]. - For polypropylene, under the background of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. It may be supported when the oversupply situation on the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [25]. - For PX, it is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [28]. - For PTA, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips in the expected trading [30]. - For ethylene glycol, there is a risk of a rebound due to unexpected maintenance. The supply - demand pattern needs significant production cuts to improve [32]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures rose 10.50 yuan/barrel, or 2.46%, to 437.90 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil rose 46.00 yuan/ton, or 1.91%, to 2458.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil rose 73.00 yuan/ton, or 2.51%, to 2982.00 yuan/ton. European ARA weekly data showed that gasoline inventory increased by 0.94 million barrels to 10.16 million barrels, diesel inventory decreased by 0.27 million barrels to 14.70 million barrels, etc. The total refined oil inventory increased by 0.67 million barrels to 45.89 million barrels [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently wait and see [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu decreased by 11 yuan/ton, in Lunan by 5 yuan/ton, etc. The main futures contract rose 7 yuan/ton to 2155 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit was - 378 yuan [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the bullish factors are realized, the market will enter a short - term consolidation. It is expected to be sorted out at a low level, and it is recommended to wait and see [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong remained unchanged, in Henan rose 10 yuan/ton, etc. The main futures contract rose 1 yuan/ton to 1698 yuan/ton, and the overall basis was - 8 yuan/ton [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overall supply - demand situation has improved. With support from export policies and costs, the downside space is limited. At low prices, consider going long on dips [10]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices were oscillating weakly. Rubber winter - storage buying demand is a bullish factor. As of December 18, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 64.66%, and that of semi - steel tires was 72.76%. The total social inventory of natural rubber in China was 115.2 tons, and the inventory in Qingdao was 49.42 tons. Spot prices of some rubber products declined [12][13][14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Currently hold a neutral view, recommend short - term operations, and hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [15]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 61 yuan to 4591 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4340 yuan/ton. The overall operating rate was 77.4%, and the downstream operating rate was 45.4%. Factory and social inventories decreased [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic supply is strong and demand is weak, and the fundamentals are poor. In the short - term, there is a rebound driven by sentiment. In the medium - term, the idea is to short on rallies before significant production cuts in the industry [17]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China rose 35 yuan/ton to 5315 yuan/ton, and the spot price of styrene rose 100 yuan/ton to 6550 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 69.13%, and the three - S weighted operating rate on the demand side was 40.60% [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to low, and there is a large space for valuation repair. Before the first quarter of next year, consider going long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6240 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 82.34%. Production enterprise inventory increased by 1.72 tons, and the downstream average operating rate was 42.45% [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. Consider going long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6119 yuan/ton, down 94 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 78.05%. Production enterprise inventory increased by 0.07 tons, and the downstream average operating rate was 53.8% [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Under the background of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. It may be supported when the oversupply situation on the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [25]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract rose 188 yuan to 7258 yuan. The PX CFR rose 26 dollars to 892 dollars. The Chinese load was 88.1%, and the Asian load was 78.9%. PTA load was 73.2%. In the first and middle of December, South Korea's PX exports to China were 28.3 tons [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [28]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 158 yuan to 5040 yuan. The spot price in East China rose 135 yuan to 4885 yuan. The PTA load was 73.2%, and the downstream load was 91.2%. Social inventory decreased by 1.9 tons [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips in the expected trading [30]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 3 yuan to 3735 yuan. The spot price in East China fell 20 yuan to 3613 yuan. The supply - side load was 72%, and the downstream load was 91.2%. Port inventory increased by 3 tons [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There is a risk of a rebound due to unexpected maintenance. The supply - demand pattern needs significant production cuts to improve [32].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - Given the unclear outcome of the US - Iran negotiation, lack of clear OPEC production increase data, and the support from shale oil, it's not advisable to chase short positions even if the negotiation is successful. Short - term, it's better to stay on the sidelines for crude oil [1]. - For methanol, considering the ample supply and weak macro - environment, there may be a further decline. One - sided trading can focus on short positions on rallies, and for cross - variety trading, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the 09 - contract PP - 3MA spread [3]. - For urea, with high supply and lukewarm demand, the price is expected to have no obvious trend. One - sided trading is recommended to stay on the sidelines [5]. - For rubber, it shows a strong - side oscillation. Short - term long or neutral thinking is recommended, with short - term operations and quick in - and - out. Also, pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [9][11]. - For PVC, although the inventory decline is fast in the short - term, due to the expectation of strong supply and weak demand, the price is expected to oscillate weakly, but beware of the rebound if the weak export expectation is not realized [13]. - For polyethylene, the short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven to supply - driven decline. With no new capacity planned in June, the price may oscillate [15]. - For polypropylene, with planned capacity release in June and the approaching of the seasonal off - season, the price is expected to be bearish in June [16]. - For PX, the maintenance season is ending, the de - stocking is expected to slow down in June, and it will re - enter the de - stocking cycle in the third quarter. The price is expected to oscillate at the current valuation level [18]. - For PTA, it will continue to de - stock, and the processing fee is supported. The absolute price is expected to oscillate at the current valuation level [19][20]. - For ethylene glycol, the industry is in the de - stocking stage, but there is a risk of valuation correction as the maintenance season on the supply side is ending [21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - WTI主力原油期货收涨0.51美元，涨幅0.81%，报63.25美元；布伦特主力原油期货收涨0.38美元，涨幅0.59%，报65.29美元；INE主力原油期货收跌4.50元，跌幅0.96%，报463.7元 [6]. - 新加坡油品周度数据显示，汽油库存累库0.08百万桶至13.10百万桶，环比累库0.62%；柴油库存去库0.69百万桶至9.24百万桶，环比去库6.91%；燃料油库存累库0.24百万桶至22.58百万桶，环比累库1.09%；总成品油去库0.36百万桶至44.92百万桶，环比去库0.80% [6]. Methanol - 6月5日09合约跌11元/吨，报2259元/吨，现货涨8元/吨，基差+51 [3]. - 供应端开工见底回升至同期高位，企业利润高位回落，预计短期供应维持高位；需求端港口MTO装置开工回到高位，传统需求开工回升，需求小幅好转，港口累库慢价格偏强，内地供增需弱价格走低，港口与内地价差扩大 [3]. Urea - 6月5日09合约跌52元/吨，报1722元/吨，现货跌10元/吨，基差+111 [5]. - 供应维持高位，日产持续走高；需求端复合肥夏季肥结束，企业开工回落，对尿素需求减少，企业预收订单回落，库存累至同期高位，盘面价格下跌 [5]. Rubber - NR和RU偏强震荡 [9]. - 多头认为东南亚尤其是泰国的天气、橡胶林现状和政策可能助于减产；空头认为宏观预期转差，需求平淡处于季节性淡季，高价会刺激新增供应，减产幅度可能不及预期 [10]. - 截至6月5日，山东轮胎企业全钢胎开工负荷为63.45%，较上周走低1.33个百分点，较去年同期走高2.56个百分点；半钢胎企业开工负荷为73.49%，较上周走低4.39个百分点，较去年同期走低6.75个百分点，海外新接订单不佳 [11]. - 截至6月1日，中国天然橡胶社会库存128万吨，环比下降2.8万吨，降幅2.1%；深色胶社会总库存为76.3万吨，环比下降3.4%；浅色胶社会总库存为51.7万吨，环比降0.1% [11]. PVC - PVC09合约下跌87元，报4747元，常州SG - 5现货价4680元/吨，基差 - 67元/吨，9 - 1价差 - 67元/吨 [13]. - 成本端持稳，本周整体开工率78.2%，环比上升2%；需求端下游开工46.2%，环比下降0.8%；厂内库存38.5万吨，社会库存59.8万吨，均有下降 [13]. - 企业利润压力大，检修季接近尾声，后续产量预期回升，有装置投产预期；下游开工疲弱转淡季，出口签单转弱，成本端电石下跌，估值支撑减弱，短期预计偏弱震荡 [13]. Polyolefins Polyethylene - 期货价格下跌，加拿大阿尔伯塔大火弥补OPEC + 7月增产41.1万桶计划量，现货价格无变动，PE估值向上空间有限 [15]. - 二季度供应端新增产能大，供应承压；上中游库存去库对价格支撑有限，季节性淡季需求端农膜订单递减，开工率震荡下行，6月无新增产能投产计划，价格或维持震荡 [15]. - 主力合约收盘价7034元/吨，下跌15元/吨，现货7125元/吨无变动，基差91元/吨，走强15元/吨；上游开工76.52%，环比下降1.10%；生产企业库存51.77万吨，环比累库3.57万吨，贸易商库存5.83万吨，环比累库0.01万吨；下游平均开工率39.2%，环比下降0.10%；LL9 - 1价差29元/吨，环比缩小2元/吨 [15]. Polypropylene - 期货价格下跌，加拿大阿尔伯塔大火弥补OPEC + 7月增产41.1万桶计划量，现货价格上涨但跌幅小于PE [16]. - 6月供应端有220万吨计划产能投放，需求端下游开工率随塑编订单见顶后或季节性震荡下行，预计6月价格偏空 [16]. - 主力合约收盘价6911元/吨，下跌37元/吨，现货7120元/吨，上涨5元/吨，基差209元/吨，走强42元/吨；上游开工78.31%，环比上涨0.65%；生产企业库存60.51万吨，环比累库5.18万吨，贸易商库存14.76万吨，环比累库1.15万吨，港口库存6.64万吨，环比累库0.15万吨；下游平均开工率50.29%，环比下降0.43%；LL - PP价差123元/吨，环比扩大22元/吨 [16]. Polyester PX - PX09合约下跌38元，报6540元，PX CFR下跌5美元，报820美元，按人民币中间价折算基差252元，9 - 1价差182元 [18]. - 中国负荷82.1%，环比上升4.1%；亚洲负荷72%，环比上升2.6%；辽阳石化、中海油惠州等装置重启或提负荷，海外部分装置有重启和检修 [18]. - 5月韩国PX出口中国30.3万吨，同比下降8.7万吨；4月底库存451万吨，月环比下降17万吨；PXN为263美元，石脑油裂差87美元 [18]. - 检修季结束，6月去库放缓，三季度因PTA新装置投产重新进入去库周期，终端纺服出口预期偏强，聚酯库存低，原料端负反馈压力小，短期估值升至中性偏高水平，预计震荡 [18]. PTA - PTA09合约下跌26元，报4644元，华东现货下跌20元/吨，报4845元，基差216元，9 - 1价差138元 [19]. - PTA负荷79.7%，环比上升3.3%，部分装置重启或推后；下游负荷91.3%，环比下降0.4%，部分装置有减产或重启；终端加弹负荷下降2%至80%，织机负荷下降1%至68% [19]. - 5月30日社会库存（除信用仓单）220.8万吨，环比去库9.4万吨；现货加工费上涨8元，至389元，盘面加工费下跌1元，至354元 [19]. - 供给端处于检修季，需求端聚酯化纤库存压力小，预期持续去库，加工费有支撑，绝对价格预计震荡 [19][20]. Ethylene Glycol - EG09合约下跌9元，报4283元，华东现货上涨8元，报4425元，基差130元，9 - 1价差31元 [21]. - 供给端负荷60%，环比上升0.2%，部分装置有检修和重启；海外部分装置重启；下游负荷91.3%，环比下降0.4%，部分装置有减产或重启；终端加弹负荷下降2%至80%，织机负荷下降1%至68% [21]. - 进口到港预报10.8万吨，华东出港6月4日0.77万吨，出库下降，港口库存62.1万吨，去库6.6万吨；石脑油制利润为 - 362元，国内乙烯制利润 - 455元，煤制利润1177元；成本端乙烯持平，榆林坑口烟煤末价格上涨 [21]. - 产业处于去库阶段，终端出口偏强，聚酯化纤库存压力小，但估值修复大，供给端检修季结束，有估值回调风险 [21].