1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is affected by the geopolitical situation between the US and Iran. The conflict has led to significant fluctuations in commodity prices, and the market is in a state of high uncertainty. The end - conflict signals released by both sides have a certain impact on market sentiment, but the actual supply and demand fundamentals also play important roles in price trends [2][9][93]. - Different industries have different supply - demand situations. For example, in the metals industry, some metals are affected by supply disruptions in the Middle East, while others are influenced by changes in domestic production and demand. In the agricultural products industry, factors such as planting area, harvest progress, and downstream demand affect prices. In the energy - chemical industry, the conflict in the Middle East has a significant impact on the supply and cost of raw materials [24][70][93]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Daily Selections - **Tin**: With the US and Iran expressing the willingness to end the conflict, market risk appetite has recovered, and tin prices are expected to be strong in the short term. Supply has improved significantly, and demand is gradually recovering. It is recommended to buy long positions [2][35]. - **Soda Ash**: Cost support has weakened, and soda ash is oscillating downward. The short - term supply - demand pattern is supply - strong and demand - weak, but the downward space is expected to be limited, with the SA605 contract referring to the range of 1150 - 1250 [3][117]. - **Rebar**: Raw materials are strong, supporting the steel price center. The supply and demand are seasonally rising, and the steel price's upward drive mainly comes from the raw material side [4][53]. - **Live Pigs**: Spot support is limited, and capacity pressure suppresses the far - month contracts. The short - term price may be boosted by second - fattening sentiment, but there is a possibility of further decline [5][74]. 3.2 Macro - finance - **Stock Index Futures**: The Asia - Pacific market is down, and the Q2 style tends to focus on fundamental verification. It is recommended to wait and see [6][8]. - **Precious Metals**: The leaders of the US and Iran have expressed the will to end the war, the US dollar has fallen, and precious metals have rebounded significantly. In the short term, gold may have a technical repair, and silver may also have a band - trading opportunity. Platinum and palladium are in a state of shock and consolidation [9][12]. 3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Iran's intention to end the war has led to a rebound in copper prices. The supply - demand fundamentals have improved slightly, and the medium - and long - term copper supply - demand contradiction logic has not changed significantly. It is recommended to wait and see, with the main contract focusing on the pressure at 97000 - 98000 [14][18]. - **Alumina**: Warehouse receipts are continuously accumulating, and the market is running weakly. The industry is in a state of over - capacity, and the price is expected to fluctuate around the cost line. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy at high prices [19][21]. - **Aluminum**: The expectation of production cuts in the Middle East is fermenting, and the price is hitting the 25000 mark. The short - term core operating range is expected to be 24000 - 26000, and long positions are recommended to be held [22][24]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price is strongly supported by the price of primary aluminum, and the upward and downward spaces are limited. The short - term price operating range is expected to be 23000 - 24500 [25][26]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices have rebounded, and spot transactions are average. The supply - demand cycle is weak, and the smelting cost will support the zinc price. It is recommended to take a low - buying strategy on dips [27][30]. - **Tin**: Similar to the analysis in the daily selection, tin prices are expected to be strong in the short term, and it is recommended to buy long positions [31][35]. - **Nickel**: The market is oscillating, and the Indonesian export tax policy is still uncertain. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 134000 - 140000 [36][38]. - **Stainless Steel**: Cost support is strengthening, and the market is maintaining a strong - oscillating trend. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 14200 - 14800, and a mid - term low - buying strategy is recommended [38][41]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply expectations are uncertain, and the market has fallen significantly. The short - term market may adjust, and it is recommended to wait and see and conduct short - term range operations [42][45]. - **Polysilicon**: The market is oversupplied, and the futures are oscillating downward. It is recommended to wait and see [46][47]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Production control has not been achieved, and the futures are falling. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 8000 - 9000, and strategies such as short - selling at high prices or long - buying at low prices can be considered [48][51]. 3.4 Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Raw material prices support the steel price center. Supply and demand are seasonally rising, and the steel price's upward drive mainly comes from the raw material side [52][53]. - **Iron Ore**: Short - term shipments have declined, and the supply - demand pattern has improved. The main contract is expected to oscillate at a high level in the range of 780 - 830 [54][56]. - **Coking Coal**: Auction transactions have declined, and the market is affected by geopolitical risks. It is recommended to wait and see, with the 2605 contract referring to the range of 1050 - 1250 [57][59]. - **Coke**: The spot price increase is about to be implemented, and the market is following the trend of coking coal. It is recommended to wait and see, with the 2605 contract referring to the range of 1600 - 1800 [60][63]. - **Silicon Iron**: It is necessary to pay attention to the change in settlement electricity prices, and the market is in a tight - balance state. It is recommended to conduct range operations in the range of 5800 - 6200 [64][65]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Production cuts have been implemented, and the cost support of manganese ore may weaken. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the range of 5700 - 6800 [67][69]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The US soybean planting intention has been slightly increased, and the domestic soybean meal spot market is pessimistic. The future supply pressure will increase, and the soybean meal lacks effective support [70][72]. - **Live Pigs**: Similar to the analysis in the daily selection, spot support is limited, and capacity pressure suppresses the far - month contracts [73][74]. - **Corn**: The bottom support is strong, and the decline is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to the subsequent policy release [75][77]. - **Sugar**: The spot trading is average, and the market is maintaining a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [78][80]. - **Cotton**: The USDA report shows an increase in the US cotton planting area, and domestic downstream enterprises are cautious in restocking. It is necessary to focus on the actual orders of downstream enterprises, the change in the new - season planting area, and the weather in the main production areas [80][82]. - **Eggs**: Terminal sales are slow, and egg prices are generally falling. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation and a weak trend [83][84]. - **Oils**: Indonesia's plan to promote B50 in July has boosted the oil market. Palm oil may rise in the short term, soybean oil is affected by the increase in US soybean planting area, and rapeseed oil is following the international oil market and maintaining a wide - range oscillation [85][87]. - **Jujubes**: The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is expected to oscillate and fall to build a bottom. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8500 - 9500 [88][89]. - **Apples**: The Tomb - sweeping Festival stocking is less than expected, and the price is continuing to weaken. The 05 contract is supported by low inventory, and the 10 contract is affected by the weather expectation of the new - season flowering period [90][91]. 3.6 Energy - Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The US and Iran have sent signals to cool down the conflict, and oil prices are running weakly. The short - term may be in a weak - oscillation pattern, but the supply shortage still exists, and it is necessary to pay attention to the negotiation progress and the navigation situation of the Bab el - Mandeb Strait [92][93]. - **PX**: Affected by the geopolitical situation, PX is oscillating at a high level. The short - term supply and demand are weak, but the overall supply - demand in April is expected to be tight, and it is recommended to wait and see [94][95]. - **PTA**: Similar to PX, it is oscillating at a high level. The 4 - month inventory is expected to accumulate, and the demand may drag down the raw materials. It is recommended to pay attention to the oil price trend [96][97]. - **Short - fiber**: It has limited self - driving force and follows the raw materials. It is recommended to pay attention to the restoration of the passage of the Strait of Hormuz and the cost transmission of downstream products [98]. - **Bottle - grade PET**: The supply is expected to be tight in April, and the processing fee is expected to be strong. It is recommended to take the same strategy as PTA [99][101]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply will decrease significantly in the second quarter, and the inventory will be significantly reduced. It still has the potential to rise, but attention should be paid to the risk of a decline after a rise [102]. - **Pure Benzene**: It is oscillating at a high level following the oil price. The supply is expected to decrease, and the supply - demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to wait and see [103]. - **Styrene**: Similar to pure benzene, it is oscillating at a high level following the oil price. The supply - demand has weakened, but it is still relatively tight. It is recommended to take the same strategy as pure benzene [104][105]. - **LLDPE**: The market is falling, and the basis is strengthening. The supply is expected to shrink, and the price has support at the bottom. It is expected to oscillate in a wide range [106]. - **PP**: Upstream production cuts are increasing, and the 05 contract has significantly reduced inventory. It is recommended to go long on the 09 contract on dips [107]. - **Methanol**: The market shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern. It is recommended to reduce long positions [108]. - **Caustic Soda**: The export expectation has been fulfilled, and the market has returned to the fundamentals. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [109][110]. - **PVC**: The chemical market sentiment has subsided, and the price is adjusting. The short - term may be weakly adjusted, and attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation and the actual production suspension rhythm of the devices [111][112]. - **Urea**: There is no strong unilateral driving force, and the price is running in a range. It is recommended to pay attention to the downstream demand and policy dynamics, with the main contract referring to the range of 1830 - 1900 [113]. - **Soda Ash**: Cost support has weakened, and it is oscillating downward. It is recommended to hold short positions [114][117]. - **Glass**: Cost support has weakened, and it is approaching the previous low. It is recommended to hold short positions [114][118]. - **Natural Rubber**: The US and Iran have released signals to end the conflict, and rubber prices are rising. It is recommended to wait and see, with the operating range expected to be 16000 - 17500 [119][121]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The situation in the Middle East is fluctuating, and BR is oscillating at a high level. It still has the potential to rise before the oil transportation in the Middle East is restored, but attention should be paid to the risk of a decline after a rise [121][123]. 3.7 Container Shipping to Europe - The off - season cargo - collection is under pressure, and the overall market is weakly oscillating. The 04 contract is oscillating widely around the spot price center, and the 06 contract is expected to oscillate widely following the geopolitical situation. It is recommended to operate in the range and pay attention to risks [123][125].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, recommend a bearish strategic allocation, widen the Platts north - south different oil - type spread before Libya's mid - year production increase, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. - For methanol, suggest taking profits at high prices and widening the MTO profit at low prices [5]. - For urea, suggest a short - selling allocation, and expect short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches the extreme [8]. - For rubber, suggest flexible trading, taking profits on butadiene rubber out - of - the - money call options, starting to allocate put options, and continuing to hold the long NR main contract and short RU2609 position [14]. - For PVC, although the short - term fundamentals do not fully reflect the supply shock, the narrative logic turns to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which may offset the negative impact of the cancellation of export tax rebates [18]. - For pure benzene and styrene, due to the continuous geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [21]. - For polyethylene, wait for the marginal increase in the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and then short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract reverse spread at high prices [24]. - For polypropylene, in the short term, geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and in the long term, the contradiction shifts from the cost side to the production mismatch [28]. - For PX, although the short - term increase is large, the valuation is expected to rise as the raw - material shortage logic further develops [30]. - For PTA, it is difficult to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is expected to be difficult to rise, but PXN may rise significantly [33]. - For ethylene glycol, the inventory is expected to decline, but the short - term increase is large, so be aware of risks [36]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures closed down 22.40 yuan/barrel, a decline of 2.94%, at 740.60 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 175.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.79%, at 4446.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 221.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 4.11%, at 5159.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Recommend a bearish strategic allocation, widen the Platts north - south different oil - type spread before Libya's mid - year production increase, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. 3.2 Methanol - **Market Information**: The main contract changed by 159.00 yuan/ton, reported at 3229 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by 104 yuan [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Suggest taking profits at high prices and widening the MTO profit at low prices [5]. 3.3 Urea - **Market Information**: In the spot market, Shandong, Henan, and Northeast China had no price changes; Hubei decreased by 10 yuan/ton; Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan/ton; Shanxi increased by 20 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 8 yuan/ton, reported at 1874 yuan/ton [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Suggest a short - selling allocation, and expect short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches the extreme [8]. 3.4 Rubber - **Market Information**: Butadiene was strong in the spot market due to import demand from Japan and South Korea. As of March 26, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 69.26%, up 0.04 percentage points from last week and 1.17 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 77.10%, down 0.07 percentage points from last week and 5.52 percentage points from the same period last year. The export orders declined, and the tire inventory pressure increased. As of March 22, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.36 million tons, a decrease of 0.4 million tons, a decline of 0.3%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 921,000 tons, an increase of 0.1%. The total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 439,000 tons, a decrease of 1% [10][12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Suggest flexible trading, taking profits on butadiene rubber out - of - the - money call options, starting to allocate put options, and continuing to hold the long NR main contract and short RU2609 position [14]. 3.5 PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 198 yuan, reported at 5353 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5220 (- 230) yuan/ton, the basis was - 133 (- 32) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 106 (+ 2) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 80.9%, up 0.8% month - on - month; the calcium carbide method was 85.2%, up 0.5% month - on - month; the ethylene method was 70.7%, up 1.5% month - on - month. The overall downstream operating rate was 46%, up 4.3% month - on - month. The in - plant inventory was 339,000 tons (- 27,000 tons), and the social inventory was 1.374 million tons (+ 3,000 tons) [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the short - term fundamentals do not fully reflect the supply shock, the narrative logic turns to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which may offset the negative impact of the cancellation of export tax rebates [18]. 3.6 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost - side East China pure benzene was 8940 yuan/ton, with no change. The closing price of the pure benzene active contract was 8790 yuan/ton, with no change. The pure benzene basis was 150 yuan/ton, an increase of 272 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 10750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton; the closing price of the styrene active contract was 10597 yuan/ton, a decrease of 192 yuan/ton; the basis was 153 yuan/ton, an increase of 42 yuan/ton; the BZN spread was - 49.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33.5 yuan/ton; the EB non - integrated plant profit was - 268.6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 230 yuan/ton; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 69.95%, a decrease of 0.51%. The Jiangsu port inventory was 168,400 tons, an increase of 59,000 tons. The demand - side three - S weighted operating rate was 40.67%, a decrease of 0.27%. The PS operating rate was 51.40%, a decrease of 0.20%, the EPS operating rate was 63.27%, an increase of 2.27%, and the ABS operating rate was 62.60%, a decrease of 4.50% [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Due to the continuous geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [21]. 3.7 Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 8614 yuan/ton, a decrease of 190 yuan/ton. The spot price was 8700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 225 yuan/ton. The basis was 86 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 74.57%, a decrease of 1.41% month - on - month. The production enterprise inventory was 587,900 tons, an increase of 19,600 tons month - on - month, and the trader inventory was 56,300 tons, an increase of 1,500 tons month - on - month. The downstream average operating rate was 40%, an increase of 2.41% month - on - month. The LL5 - 9 spread was 149 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan/ton [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait for the marginal increase in the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and then short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract reverse spread at high prices [24]. 3.8 Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 9103 yuan/ton, a decrease of 166 yuan/ton. The spot price was 9300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The basis was 197 yuan/ton, an increase of 116 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 67.65%, a decrease of 2.72% month - on - month. The production enterprise inventory was 499,700 tons, a decrease of 96,500 tons month - on - month, the trader inventory was 177,800 tons, a decrease of 15,840 tons month - on - month, and the port inventory was 69,600 tons, a decrease of 2,300 tons month - on - month. The downstream average operating rate was 46.36%, an increase of 0.65% month - on - month. The LL - PP spread was - 489 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton. The PP5 - 9 spread was 366 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan/ton [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the short term, geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and in the long term, the contradiction shifts from the cost side to the production mismatch [28]. 3.9 PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract fell 140 yuan, reported at 9700 yuan, and the 5 - 7 spread was 18 yuan (+ 20). The Chinese PX load was 84%, a decrease of 0.6% month - on - month; the Asian load was 72.7%, a decrease of 2.1% month - on - month. Some plants restarted or shut down. The PTA load was 81.8%, an increase of 1% month - on - month. In March, South Korea's PX exports to China were 311,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28,000 tons. The inventory at the end of February was 4.8 million tons, an increase of 160,000 tons month - on - month. The PXN was 120 US dollars (- 11), the South Korean PX - MX was 112 US dollars (- 3), and the naphtha crack spread was 364 US dollars (- 4) [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the short - term increase is large, the valuation is expected to rise as the raw - material shortage logic further develops [30]. 3.10 PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 84 yuan, reported at 6684 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 96 yuan (+ 4). The PTA load was 81.8%, an increase of 1% month - on - month. The downstream load was 86.8%, a decrease of 0.8% month - on - month. The social inventory on March 27 was 2.8 million tons, an increase of 69,000 tons month - on - month. The on - disk processing fee increased by 8 yuan to 321 yuan [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is difficult to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is expected to be difficult to rise, but PXN may rise significantly [33]. 3.11 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 141 yuan, reported at 5218 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 116 yuan (- 9). The ethylene glycol load was 65.8%, a decrease of 0.6% month - on - month. The downstream load was 86.8%, a decrease of 0.8% month - on - month. The import arrival forecast was 117,000 tons, and the East China departure on March 30 was 12,000 tons. The port inventory was 1.075 million tons, an increase of 36,000 tons month - on - month. The naphtha - based production profit was - 3137 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit was - 2727 yuan, and the coal - based production profit was 1176 yuan. The cost - side ethylene rose to 1500 US dollars, and the Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal powder price rebounded to 690 yuan [35]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The inventory is expected to decline, but the short - term increase is large, so be aware of risks [36].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, recommend a short - term bearish strategic allocation, widen the spread of different oil grades in the Platts market before Libya's mid - year production increase, and short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread and INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. - For methanol, consider that it already includes the current geopolitical premium, suggest taking profits at high prices and widening the MTO profit at low prices [4]. - For urea, expect high production in the first quarter. With supply and demand both strong, suggest short - selling at high prices, and there may be short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches an extreme [7]. - For rubber, the market is volatile. Suggest flexible trading, gradually taking profits on butadiene rubber, and holding the position of buying NR and shorting RU2609 [10][13]. - For PVC, in the short term, the price may rise before the Iran issue is resolved, but be cautious of short - term large increases [16][17]. - For pure benzene and styrene, due to geopolitical conflicts, suggest staying on the sidelines as the non - integrated profit of styrene has been repaired and the market is volatile [20]. - For polyethylene, after the traffic in the Strait of Hormuz increases, suggest shorting the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread at high prices [23]. - For polypropylene, short - term geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and long - term contradictions shift from cost to production mismatch [26]. - For PX, the load is expected to decline, and it will enter a de - stocking cycle. The valuation is expected to rise, but be cautious of short - term large increases [29]. - For PTA, it is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is hard to rise, but PXN may rise significantly due to geopolitical factors [32]. - For ethylene glycol, the load is expected to decline, imports will decrease, and the port inventory will turn to de - stocking. However, be cautious of short - term large increases [34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures rose 12.40 yuan/barrel, or 1.70%, to 740.80 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil rose 118.00 yuan/ton, or 2.72%, to 4464.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil rose 140.00 yuan/ton, or 2.79%, to 5157.00 yuan/ton [8]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a bearish strategic allocation, widen the spread of different oil grades, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread and INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The main contract changed by 130.00 yuan/ton, reported at 3296 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by - 89 yuan [3]. - **Strategy**: Take profits at high prices and widen the MTO profit at low prices [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, etc. remained unchanged. The overall basis was reported at - 17 yuan/ton. The main contract changed by 2 yuan/ton, reported at 1877 yuan/ton [6]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell at high prices, and there may be short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches an extreme [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Crude oil declined, RU rebounded. Butadiene was strong. Butadiene rubber production lines had heavy losses and reduced production. The price had room for repair. The overall market changed rapidly [10]. - **Strategy**: Trade flexibly, gradually take profits on butadiene rubber, and hold the position of buying NR and shorting RU2609 [13]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 35 yuan to 5615 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5450 (- 50) yuan/ton. The basis was - 165 (- 15) yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread was - 110 (+ 6) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 80.9%, with an increase of 0.8%. Downstream demand was gradually recovering [15]. - **Strategy**: The price may rise before the Iran issue is resolved, but be cautious of short - term large increases [16][17]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene remained unchanged, and the futures price remained unchanged. The basis narrowed. The spot price of styrene fell, and the futures price rose. The basis weakened. The non - integrated profit of styrene was neutral to high, and the supply was relatively abundant [19]. - **Strategy**: Stay on the sidelines due to geopolitical impacts and market volatility [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 8868 yuan/ton, up 101 yuan/ton. The spot price was 8600 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 268 yuan/ton, weakening by 101 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 74.57%, a decrease of 1.41%. The downstream average operating rate was 40%, an increase of 2.41% [22]. - **Strategy**: After the traffic in the Strait of Hormuz increases, short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread at high prices [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 9313 yuan/ton, up 193 yuan/ton. The spot price was 9150 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The basis was - 163 yuan/ton, weakening by 143 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 67.65%, a decrease of 2.72%. The downstream average operating rate was 46.36%, an increase of 0.65% [25]. - **Strategy**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and long - term contradictions shift from cost to production mismatch [26]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract rose 142 yuan to 9916 yuan. The 5 - 7 spread was - 42 (- 54) yuan. The Chinese PX load was 84%, a decrease of 0.6%; the Asian load was 72.7%, a decrease of 2.1%. The PTA load was 81.8%, an increase of 1%. In March, South Korea's PX exports to China decreased by 2.8 tons year - on - year. The inventory at the end of February increased by 16 tons month - on - month [28]. - **Strategy**: The load is expected to decline further, enter a de - stocking cycle, and the valuation is expected to rise, but be cautious of short - term large increases [29]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 98 yuan to 6876 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread was 120 (+ 20) yuan. The PTA load was 81.8%, an increase of 1%. The downstream load was 86.8%, a decrease of 0.8%. The social inventory on March 6 was 285.4 tons. The processing fee on the disk rose 5 yuan to 371 yuan [31]. - **Strategy**: It is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is hard to rise, but PXN may rise significantly due to geopolitical factors [32]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 221 yuan to 5279 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread was 146 (+ 81) yuan. The ethylene glycol load was 65.8%, a decrease of 0.6%. The downstream load was 86.8%, a decrease of 0.8%. The port inventory increased by 2.8 tons to 103.9 tons [33]. - **Strategy**: The load is expected to decline, imports will decrease, and the port inventory will turn to de - stocking. However, be cautious of short - term large increases [34].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, start a bearish strategic allocation, do long on the Platts north - south non - same oil variety spread before Libya's mid - year production increase, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. - For methanol, it already includes the current geopolitical premium, so take profit at high prices and do long on the MTO profit at low prices [4]. - For urea, short at high prices considering the high - price and unfavorable time for demand, and expect short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches the extreme [7]. - For rubber, trade flexibly according to the short - term market, set stop - losses, and continue to hold the position of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [12]. - For PVC, it is expected to rise in the short - term before the Iranian issue is resolved, but be cautious of large short - term increases [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines due to high non - integrated profit, wide supply, and large geopolitical influence on the market [19]. - For polyethylene, short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz increases [22]. - For polypropylene, short - term geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and long - term contradictions shift from cost to production mismatch [25]. - For PX, it is expected to enter a de - stocking cycle, and the valuation is expected to rise, but be cautious of large short - term increases [27]. - For PTA, it is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is hard to rise, but PXN is expected to rise significantly [30]. - For ethylene glycol, it is expected to enter a de - stocking cycle, and the oil - chemical profit is at a low level, but be cautious of large short - term increases [33]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures closed down 28.00 yuan/barrel, a decline of 3.72%, at 723.90 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 300.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 6.45%, at 4348.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 209.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.89%, at 5159.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy**: Start a bearish strategic allocation, do long on the Platts north - south non - same oil variety spread before Libya's mid - year production increase, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The main contract changed by (97.00) yuan/ton, reported at 3089 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by 11 yuan [3]. - **Strategy**: Take profit at high prices and do long on the MTO profit at low prices [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong changed by 10 yuan/ton, Henan 0 yuan/ton, Hebei 0 yuan/ton, Hubei 0 yuan/ton, Jiangsu 10 yuan/ton, Shanxi 0 yuan/ton, and Northeast 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at - 3 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 1 yuan/ton, reported at 1863 yuan/ton [6]. - **Strategy**: Short at high prices, and expect short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches the extreme [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Crude oil declined while RU rebounded. The overall market changes rapidly. Bulls believe in limited rubber production in Southeast Asia, improved demand in China, and rubber substitution. Bears believe in a marginal decline in macro - expectations, increased supply, and a seasonal demand slump. As of March 19, 2026, the full - steel tire production load of Shandong tire enterprises was 69.22%, up 0.58 percentage points from last week and 0.17 percentage points from the same period last year. The semi - steel tire production load of domestic tire enterprises was 77.17%, up 0.48 percentage points from last week and down 5.57 percentage points from the same period last year. Middle - East export orders were still on hold. As of March 15, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 136.49 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.56 million tons, a decline of 1.13%. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber in China was 92.1 million tons, a decrease of 1.34%. The total inventory of light - colored rubber in China was 44.39 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.68%. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 0.94 million tons to 69.21 million tons. In the spot market, Thai standard mixed rubber was 15350 (+100) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1970 (+30) US dollars, STR20 mixed was 1985 (+45) US dollars, Shandong butadiene was 18000 (+100) yuan, Jiangsu and Zhejiang butadiene was 18300 (+500) yuan, and North China cis - butadiene was 16800 (+500) yuan. The Asian butadiene production rate decreased, and supply decreased, with an expected strong butadiene market [9][10][11]. - **Strategy**: Trade flexibly according to the short - term market, set stop - losses, and continue to hold the position of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 150 yuan, reported at 5703 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5500 (-360) yuan/ton, the basis was 203 (-170) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 98 (-11) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was reported at 2750 (+15) yuan/ton, the price of semi - coke medium - sized material was 735 (0) yuan/ton, ethylene was 1450 (0) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 728 (+2) yuan/ton. The overall PVC production rate was 80.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2%; among them, the calcium carbide method was 84.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.8%; the ethylene method was 69.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 8.4%. The overall downstream production rate was 41.7%, a month - on - month increase of 2.3%. The in - factory inventory was 36.5 million tons (-1.2), and the social inventory was 137.1 million tons (-3.6) [14]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to rise in the short - term before the Iranian issue is resolved, but be cautious of large short - term increases [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of East China pure benzene was 8245 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 8313 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton; the pure benzene basis was - 68 yuan/ton, an increase of 108 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 10200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 10105 yuan/ton, a decrease of 137 yuan/ton; the basis was 95 yuan/ton, a weakening of 63 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was - 47.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan/ton. The non - integrated EB device profit was - 212.55 yuan/ton, a decrease of 126.8 yuan/ton. The EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a narrowing of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream production rate was 70.46%, a decrease of 1.33%. The inventory at Jiangsu ports was 16.25 million tons, an increase of 0.60 million tons. The weighted production rate of the three S products was 40.93%, an increase of 0.60%. The PS production rate was 51.60%, a decrease of 0.10%; the EPS production rate was 61.00%, an increase of 3.22%; the ABS production rate was 67.10%, a decrease of 0.30% [18]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to stay on the sidelines due to high non - integrated profit, wide supply, and large geopolitical influence on the market [19]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 8715 yuan/ton, a decrease of 203 yuan/ton. The spot price was 8500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 350 yuan/ton. The basis was - 215 yuan/ton, a weakening of 147 yuan/ton. The upstream production rate was 80.37%, a month - on - month increase of 0.39%. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 56.83 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.71 million tons, and the trader inventory was 5.48 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.48 million tons. The downstream average production rate was 35%, a month - on - month increase of 1.17%. The LL5 - 9 spread was 147 yuan/ton, a month - on - month narrowing of 35 yuan/ton [21]. - **Strategy**: Short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz increases [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 8975 yuan/ton, a decrease of 139 yuan/ton. The spot price was 8975 yuan/ton, a decrease of 275 yuan/ton. The basis was 0 yuan/ton, a weakening of 136 yuan/ton. The upstream production rate was 71.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.17%. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 59.62 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.14 million tons, the trader inventory was 19.36 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.244 million tons, and the port inventory was 7.19 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.29 million tons. The downstream average production rate was 46%, a month - on - month increase of 0.29%. The LL - PP spread was - 260 yuan/ton, a month - on - month narrowing of 64 yuan/ton. The PP5 - 9 spread was 383 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 49 yuan/ton [24]. - **Strategy**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and long - term contradictions shift from cost to production mismatch [25]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract fell 206 yuan, reported at 9502 yuan, and the 5 - 7 spread was 22 yuan (-18). The PX load in China was 84.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%; the Asian load was 74.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1%. Some devices had issues such as postponed restart and shutdown. The PTA load was 80.8%, a month - on - month increase of 3.5%. In terms of imports, South Korea's PX exports to China in the first and middle ten - days of March were 31.1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8 million tons. The inventory at the end of February was 480 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 16 million tons. The PXN was 139 US dollars (+26), the South Korean PX - MX was 91 US dollars (+4), and the naphtha cracking spread was 385 US dollars (-100) [26]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to enter a de - stocking cycle, and the valuation is expected to rise, but be cautious of large short - term increases [27]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 102 yuan, reported at 6592 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 108 yuan (-2). The PTA load was 80.8%, a month - on - month increase of 3.5%. The downstream load was 87.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.9%. The terminal texturing load remained flat at 74%, and the loom load increased by 1% to 65%. The social inventory on March 6 was 285.4 million tons. The on - disk processing fee increased by 33 yuan to 359 yuan [29]. - **Strategy**: It is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is hard to rise, but PXN is expected to rise significantly [30]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 83 yuan, reported at 5036 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 96 yuan (+14). The ethylene glycol production rate was 66.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3%; among them, the syngas - based production rate was 72.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.4%; the ethylene - based production rate was 63.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%. Some devices had load adjustments. The downstream load was 87.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.9%. The terminal texturing load remained flat at 74%, and the loom load increased by 1% to 65%. The import arrival forecast was 11.7 million tons, and the East China departure was 0.8 million tons on March 24. The port inventory was 103.9 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.8 million tons. The naphtha - based production profit was - 2680 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit was - 2680 yuan, and the coal - based production profit was 1310 yuan. The cost of ethylene rose to 1450 US dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal powder rebounded to 640 yuan [32]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to enter a de - stocking cycle, and the oil - chemical profit is at a low level, but be cautious of large short - term increases [33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is significantly affected by the geopolitical conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, with prices of various commodities fluctuating greatly. The market is constantly adjusting its expectations for the development of the war, and the uncertainty is high [2][3][4]. - Different industries have different supply - demand situations. Some industries are facing supply shortages due to the conflict, while others are affected by demand changes. For example, the energy and chemical industries are strongly affected by supply disruptions, while the agricultural and livestock industries are more affected by factors such as seasonal demand and production capacity [2][66][69]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Selections - **Stainless Steel**: The macro - pressure on stainless steel has improved, and supply - demand is gradually recovering. The raw material cost is strongly supported, and the short - term is expected to maintain a relatively strong shock, with the main contract referring to the 14000 - 14600 range [2][38][40]. - **Methanol**: Affected by the uncertainty of the Middle - East situation, the fluctuation of methanol is magnified. The import reduction dominates the current market, but attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand and policy risks [3][106]. - **Rebar**: The steel price center has risen, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high. The supply and demand of steel are both increasing, and the inventory has entered the destocking cycle [4][50][51]. - **Pig**: The pressure of pig slaughter is large, and attention should be paid to the intensity of supply reduction. The futures and spot prices are expected to continue to bottom out, but the downward space is limited after the futures price falls below 10000 [5][69][70]. 3.2 Macro - finance - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market has experienced a significant correction, with the stock index futures following the decline. It is recommended to closely monitor the inflow of broad - based ETFs and wait for the stabilization opportunity [6][7][9]. - **Precious Metals**: The news of the conflict between the US and Iran has repeatedly aggravated market turmoil. The precious metals have rebounded after a sharp decline. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see for the situation to become clear [10][12][13]. 3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The situation between the US and Iran may ease, and the copper price has rebounded. The short - term copper price is in the adjustment stage, and the long - term multi - order layout opportunity may be provided by the short - term adjustment [14][17]. - **Alumina**: The speculative demand has increased, and the spot price has continued to rise. The current market is in a state of oversupply, and the short - term strategy is to maintain a short - selling idea at high prices [18][20]. - **Aluminum**: The expectation of the easing of the conflict between the US and Iran has increased, and the downward space of the aluminum price is limited. The short - term aluminum price will maintain a wide - range shock, and the long - term bullish logic still holds [21][23]. - **Zinc**: The social inventory has decreased, and the zinc price has stopped falling and stabilized. The short - term zinc price is under pressure, but the long - term supply - demand fundamentals are relatively stable [26][29]. - **Tin**: Trump's easing of the threat to Iran has improved the market risk sentiment, and the tin price has rebounded at night. If the war is expected to end, long - orders can be considered [29][33][34]. - **Nickel**: The macro - expectation is repeated, and the nickel price fluctuates widely. The short - term is expected to be in a range - bound shock [34][37][38]. - **Stainless Steel**: The macro - pressure has improved, and the supply - demand is gradually recovering. The short - term is expected to maintain a relatively strong shock [38][40]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The macro - expectation is repeated, and the lithium carbonate price fluctuates greatly. The short - term is expected to be in a relatively strong range adjustment [41][44]. - **Polysilicon**: The supply exceeds demand, the spot price has fallen, and the futures are approaching the limit - down. It is recommended to wait and see [45][46][47]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The cost center has moved up, the spot price has risen, and the futures have oscillated upward. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low prices [47][49]. 3.4 Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The steel price center has risen, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high. The supply and demand of steel are both increasing, and the inventory has entered the destocking cycle [50][51]. - **Iron Ore**: The macro - disturbance has intensified, and the iron - making production has accelerated. The short - term iron ore main contract is expected to be in a high - level shock [52][53]. - **Coking Coal**: Some coal types have risen, and the overseas energy commodities have fluctuated greatly. It is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2605 contract at low prices [55][57]. - **Coke**: The coke spot price has increased, and the cost has pushed up the increase expectation. It is recommended to go long on the coke 2605 contract at low prices [58][59]. - **Silicon Iron**: The geopolitical conflict continues, and the supply and demand of silicon iron are both increasing. The short - term price is expected to be in a wide - range shock [60][61]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The market sentiment is changeable, and the cost of manganese silicon has increased. The short - term price is expected to be in a wide - range shock [63][65]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The US soybeans are in a high - level shock, and the domestic spot price has fallen slightly. The short - term domestic soybean meal is expected to be in a high - level shock [66][68]. - **Pig**: The pressure of pig slaughter is large, and attention should be paid to the intensity of supply reduction. The futures and spot prices are expected to continue to bottom out, but the downward space is limited after the futures price falls below 10000 [69][70]. - **Corn**: Driven by the rise of starch, the corn price is in a high - level shock. The short - term rise of the corn price is restricted [71][73]. - **Sugar**: The spot price has increased, but the transaction is average. The short - term sugar futures are expected to maintain a high - level and relatively strong shock [74]. - **Cotton**: The market trading is stable, and the cotton price is adjusted within the range. The short - term cotton price is expected to be in a wide - range shock [77]. - **Egg**: The demand is boosted by stocking, and the egg price is stable and slightly strong. The short - term egg price is expected to maintain a low - level shock [80][81]. - **Oil**: Affected by geopolitical factors, the fluctuation of oil is intensified. Different types of oils have different market trends [82][84]. - **Jujube**: The supply exceeds demand, and the futures price is in a low - level range shock. The price is expected to be in the range of 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [85][86]. - **Apple**: The market sentiment is weak, and the futures price has fallen from a high level. The 05 contract is expected to maintain a relatively strong shock, and the 10 contract needs to pay attention to the weather during the flowering period [87][88]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trump has released a signal of easing, and the oil price has significantly corrected. The short - term oil price is expected to maintain a wide - range shock [90][91]. - **PX**: There are signs of geopolitical easing, and PX has adjusted with the oil price. It is recommended to exit the long - orders and wait and see [92][93]. - **PTA**: There are signs of geopolitical easing, and PTA has adjusted with the oil price. It is recommended to pay attention to the oil price trend [94][95]. - **Short - fiber**: It has limited self - driving force and follows the raw material price fluctuation. It is recommended to pay attention to the passage recovery of the Strait of Hormuz and the downstream cost transmission [96]. - **Bottle Chip**: The supply is expected to be in short supply, and the supply - demand is expected to be tight. It is recommended to go long on the PR2605 call option with a light position [98][99]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Affected by the Middle - East conflict, the cost support is strong, and the destocking amplitude in the near - term is expected to increase. It is recommended to go long on the EG2605 call option with a light position [100]. - **Pure Benzene**: There are signs of geopolitical easing, and pure benzene has adjusted with the oil price. It is recommended to exit the long - orders and wait and see [101][102]. - **Styrene**: There are signs of geopolitical easing, and styrene has adjusted with the oil price. It is recommended to follow the strategy of pure benzene [103][104]. - **LLDPE**: The basis is risk - free, and the transaction is cold. The short - term market is in a wide - range shock [105]. - **PP**: The upstream shutdown and production reduction have increased, and the 05 contract has significantly reduced inventory. It is recommended to gradually take profit on the 5 - 9 positive spread [106]. - **Methanol**: Affected by the uncertainty of the Middle - East situation, the fluctuation of methanol is magnified. It is recommended to reduce the long - orders [3][106]. - **Caustic Soda**: The situation in the Middle - East has escalated, and the caustic soda price is running strongly. The short - term caustic soda price is expected to be strong [107][109]. - **PVC**: The geopolitical disturbance has brought export expectations, and the emotional fluctuation of PVC has been magnified. The short - term PVC price is passively pushed up [110][111]. - **Urea**: The situation in the Middle - East is tense, and the emotional fluctuation of urea has increased. It is recommended to take profit on the long - orders and exit in the short - term [112][114]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is in a downward trend at a high level, and the cost has boosted the sentiment. The soda ash has rebounded. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - side and pay attention to the 5 - 9 reverse spread [114][118]. - **Glass**: The daily melting volume has continued to decline, and the cost has been boosted. It is recommended to wait and see [114][118]. - **Natural Rubber**: Trump has eased the threat to Iran, the market sentiment has eased, and the rubber price has stopped falling and rebounded. It is recommended to wait and see [119][121]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Under the tense situation in the Middle - East, the cost support of BR is significantly enhanced, and BR is running strongly. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of falling after the rise [121][123]. 3.7 Container Shipping to Europe - The geopolitical concern has increased, and the European line has significantly risen and then fallen during the session. It is recommended to wait for the market sentiment to cool down and pay attention to the long - order layout opportunity of the peak - season contract [123][124][126].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The report provides daily market information and strategy recommendations for various energy and chemical products, including crude oil, methanol, urea, rubber, PVC, pure benzene & styrene, polyethylene, polypropylene, PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol [2][3][6]. - Due to the ongoing geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, especially the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, it has a significant impact on the supply and price trends of energy and chemical products [18][21]. - Different products have different supply - demand situations and price trends, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed accordingly [2][3][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures rose 38.50 yuan/barrel, or 5.41%, to 750.80 yuan/barrel [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Adopt a short - term bearish strategic allocation for crude oil; before the mid - year production increase in Libya, widen the price difference between different crude oil varieties at low prices; short the cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil; short the INE - Brent cross - region spread [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The main contract changed by (43.00) yuan/ton, reported at 3132 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by 11 yuan [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Since methanol already includes the current geopolitical premium and there are no major short - term supply - demand contradictions, take profits at high prices [3]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Hubei, Jiangsu, and Northeast remained unchanged, while in Shanxi it decreased by 20 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at 19 yuan/ton. The main contract changed by - 18 yuan/ton, reported at 1841 yuan/ton [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: With a high expectation of the first - quarter production peak, although there are still positive expectations for domestic downstream demand, the domestic contradiction is not prominent. Consider short - selling at high prices. When the alternative valuation of urea reaches the limit, there may be short - term positive support for demand [6]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Concerns about the economic outlook due to the Middle East situation led to a decline in the stock market and sensitive commodities. As of March 19, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 69.22%, and that of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 77.17%. China's natural rubber social inventory decreased by 1.13% [9][10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The market fluctuates greatly, so trade flexibly according to the market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. Below 16,700 for RU, it has turned bearish technically. Consider allocating out - of - the - money call options for butadiene rubber. Continue to hold the position of buying the main NR contract and short - selling RU2609 [11]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 15 yuan to 5875 yuan. The overall operating rate was 80.1%, with the calcium carbide method at 84.7% and the ethylene method at 69.2%. Factory inventory was 36.5 million tons (- 1.2), and social inventory was 137.1 million tons (- 3.6) [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The comprehensive profit of enterprises has rebounded to a high level. Although there is an expectation of passive production cuts in ethylene - based production and seasonal maintenance, and domestic demand is gradually recovering from the off - season, and there is an expectation of overseas production cuts, the short - term trend is upward before the Iranian issue is resolved, but beware of risks due to the large short - term increase [14][15]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene remained unchanged, and its futures price also remained unchanged, with the basis widening. The spot price of styrene rose, while the futures price fell, and the basis strengthened. The upstream operating rate was 70.46%, down 1.33%, and the Jiangsu port inventory increased by 0.60 million tons [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is limited. The supply is still relatively abundant, and the port inventory is continuously increasing. It is recommended to wait and see with an empty position [18]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 8818 yuan/ton, down 98 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 80.37%, up 0.39%. Production enterprise inventory decreased by 0.71 million tons, and trader inventory increased by 0.48 million tons [20]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The futures price fell. The PE valuation still has downward space. After the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz increases marginally, short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread at high prices [21]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 9019 yuan/ton, down 139 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 71.5%, up 0.17%. Production enterprise inventory decreased by 6.14 million tons, trader inventory decreased by 1.244 million tons, and port inventory decreased by 0.29 million tons [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The futures price fell. The supply pressure will be alleviated in the first half of 2026. The downstream operating rate rebounds seasonally. The short - term market is dominated by geopolitical conflicts, and the long - term contradiction shifts from the cost side to the production mismatch [24]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract fell 232 yuan to 9682 yuan. The Chinese PX load was 84.6%, down 0.1%, and the Asian load was 74.8%, down 2.1%. The inventory decreased by 1 million tons month - on - month at the end of January [25]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The PX load is expected to further decline, and the downstream PTA load is expected to rise. PX will gradually enter the de - stocking cycle in March. The valuation is currently moderately low, and it is expected to increase, but beware of risks due to the large short - term increase [26]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 184 yuan to 6650 yuan. The PTA load was 80.8%, up 3.5%. Social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) increased by 2.6 million tons on March 6. The on - disk processing fee fell 32 yuan to 298 yuan [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is difficult for PTA to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is difficult to rise. The PXN is expected to rise significantly, but beware of risks due to the large short - term increase [29]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 133 yuan to 5353 yuan. The ethylene glycol load was 66.5%, down 0.3%. Port inventory decreased by 5.7 million tons [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Overseas plant maintenance volume has increased significantly, and domestic plants are gradually entering the maintenance season. The load is expected to continue to decline, and imports are expected to decrease significantly from March. The port inventory will gradually shift to de - stocking. The current oil - chemical profit has dropped to a historical low level, but beware of risks due to the large short - term increase [32].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, start a strategic short - position configuration, do long the spread of Platts north - south non - identical oil types and short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread and INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2] - For methanol, since it already includes the current geopolitical premium and there are no major short - term supply - demand contradictions, take profit at high prices [4] - For urea, short it on rallies as the domestic contradiction is not prominent in the context of high supply and demand, and the export quota has little cost - effectiveness. There may be short - term marginal support for demand when the substitution valuation reaches the extreme [7] - For rubber, trade flexibly according to the market, set stop - losses, and consider opening or holding a long position in NR and a short position in RU2609 for hedging [12] - For PVC, although the short - term fundamentals are weak, the narrative is turning to expectations. It may rebound before the Iranian issue is resolved, but be cautious as it has risen too much [16] - For pure benzene and styrene, with the easing of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, the non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to high, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [19] - For polyethylene, with the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread on rallies [22] - For polypropylene, the short - term geopolitical conflict dominates the market, and the long - term contradiction shifts from the cost side to the production mismatch [24] - For PX, although the current load is high, it is expected to decline significantly in March. The supply - demand structure of PX and PTA is strong, but be cautious as it has risen too much [27] - For PTA, it is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle. The processing fee may rise, but be cautious as it has risen too much [29] - For ethylene glycol, the load is expected to decline, imports are expected to decrease, and the port inventory is expected to de - stock. However, be cautious as it has risen too much [32] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 73.10 yuan/barrel, or 11.26%, to 722.30 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil rose 392.00 yuan/ton, or 9.20%, to 4653.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil rose 730.00 yuan/ton, or 14.83%, to 5653.00 yuan/ton [1] - **Strategy**: Start a strategic short - position configuration; do long the spread of Platts north - south non - identical oil types; short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread; short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2] Methanol - **Market Information**: The main contract changed by 120.00 yuan/ton, reported at 2726 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by - 98 yuan [4] - **Strategy**: Take profit at high prices as it already includes the current geopolitical premium and there are no major short - term supply - demand contradictions [4] Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Hubei, Jiangsu, Shanxi, and Northeast China did not change. The overall basis was reported at - 15 yuan/ton. The main contract changed by 3 yuan/ton, reported at 1875 yuan/ton [6] - **Strategy**: Short it on rallies. There may be short - term marginal support for demand when the substitution valuation reaches the extreme [7] Rubber - **Market Information**: The market was affected by refinery shutdowns and policy expectations, leading to a rebound in related products. The overall market changed rapidly. Bulls and bears had different views. As of March 5, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 66.41%, and that of semi - steel tires was 73.52%. As of March 1, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 138.3 million tons. Spot prices of some products had changes [9][10][11] - **Strategy**: Trade flexibly according to the market, set stop - losses, and consider opening or holding a long position in NR and a short position in RU2609 for hedging [12] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 49 yuan to 5620 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5650 (+380) yuan/ton, the basis was 30 (+331) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 13 (+16) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate was 81.1%, a 1% decrease. The downstream operating rate was 35.8%, an 18.7% increase. Factory inventory was 45.8 million tons (- 4.6), and social inventory was 140.4 million tons (+5.1) [14] - **Strategy**: Although the short - term fundamentals are weak, the narrative is turning to expectations. It may rebound before the Iranian issue is resolved, but be cautious as it has risen too much [16] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The price of East China pure benzene rose 650 yuan/ton to 8635 yuan/ton. The active contract of pure benzene closed at 8297 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan/ton. The basis of pure benzene expanded by 400 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene rose 100 yuan/ton to 10100 yuan/ton. The active contract of styrene closed at 9926 yuan/ton, up 106 yuan/ton. The basis of styrene weakened by 6 yuan/ton. The BZN spread decreased by 38.75 yuan/ton. The non - integrated device profit of EB decreased by 355.5 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 74.11%, a 0.13% decrease. The inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 0.91 million tons to 16.65 million tons. The weighted operating rate of three S was 40.79%, a 10.34% increase [18] - **Strategy**: With the easing of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, the non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to high, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [19] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 8236 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan/ton. The spot price was 8575 yuan/ton, up 750 yuan/ton. The basis was 339 yuan/ton, strengthening by 668 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.77%, a 0.76% decrease. The production enterprise inventory was 57.54 million tons, accumulating 3.92 million tons, and the trader inventory was 5.00 million tons, de - stocking 0.77 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 30%, a 1.38% increase. The LL5 - 9 spread was 302 yuan/ton, narrowing by 46 yuan/ton [21] - **Strategy**: With the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread on rallies [22] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 8303 yuan/ton, up 106 yuan/ton. The spot price was 8650 yuan/ton, up 550 yuan/ton. The basis was 347 yuan/ton, strengthening by 444 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 68.42%, a 0.44% decrease. The production enterprise inventory was 68 million tons, accumulating 2.49 million tons, the trader inventory was 20.61 million tons, de - stocking 0.655 million tons, and the port inventory was 7.47 million tons, de - stocking 0.67 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 45.87%, a 9.13% increase. The LL - PP spread was - 67 yuan/ton, narrowing by 24 yuan/ton. The PP5 - 9 spread was 552 yuan/ton, expanding by 1 yuan/ton [23] - **Strategy**: The short - term geopolitical conflict dominates the market, and the long - term contradiction shifts from the cost side to the production mismatch [24] PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract rose 686 yuan to 10218 yuan. The PX CFR price rose 88 US dollars to 1305 US dollars. The basis was 154 yuan (+19), and the 5 - 7 spread was 546 yuan (+134). The Chinese load was 84.7%, a 5.7% decrease; the Asian load was 76.9%, a 6.3% decrease. Some domestic and overseas devices reduced their loads. The PTA load was 80.1%, a 0.9% decrease. In early March, South Korea's PX exports to China were 15.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8 million tons. The inventory at the end of January was 464 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1 million tons. The PXN was 342 US dollars (+32), the South Korean PX - MX was 80 US dollars (- 32), and the naphtha crack spread was 189 US dollars (+17) [26] - **Strategy**: Although the current load is high, it is expected to decline significantly in March. The supply - demand structure of PX and PTA is strong, but be cautious as it has risen too much [27] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 338 yuan to 6998 yuan. The East China spot price rose 710 yuan to 7030 yuan. The basis was - 22 yuan (- 8), and the 5 - 9 spread was 392 yuan (+26). The PTA load was 80.1%, a 0.9% decrease. The downstream load was 87.2%, a 3.1% increase. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on March 6 was 262.3 million tons, accumulating 2.6 million tons. The spot processing fee of PTA rose 247 yuan to 226 yuan, and the on - disk processing fee fell 112 yuan to 295 yuan [28] - **Strategy**: It is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle. The processing fee may rise, but be cautious as it has risen too much [29] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 76 yuan to 4653 yuan. The East China spot price rose 315 yuan to 4715 yuan. The basis was - 58 yuan (- 35), and the 5 - 9 spread was 117 yuan (- 26). The supply - side load was 66.8%, a 5.7% decrease. Some domestic and overseas devices had maintenance or load reduction. The downstream load was 87.2%, a 3.1% increase. The import arrival forecast was 7.8 million tons, and the East China departure on March 11 was 1.2 million tons. The port inventory was 106.8 million tons, accumulating 6.6 million tons. The naphtha - based production profit was - 2155 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit was - 1216 yuan, and the coal - based production profit was 661 yuan. The cost - side ethylene rose to 970 US dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines fell to 580 yuan [31] - **Strategy**: The load is expected to decline, imports are expected to decrease, and the port inventory is expected to de - stock. However, be cautious as it has risen too much [32]

Report Title - Polyester Industry Chain Futures and Options March Report [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The polyester industry chain is affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes, with prices generally showing an upward - trending and volatile pattern [4][107][154] Summary by Directory Polyester Industry Chain Market Review - In February 2026, due to the Spring Festival holiday, the polyester industry chain market followed costs with a downward - then - upward trend, mainly in a volatile consolidation. In early March, the Middle East geopolitical conflict, rising oil prices, expected restrictions on polyester raw material imports, and a decline in domestic production boosted prices to a new high since September 2023 [4] Crude Oil - In February 2026, the US military build - up in the Middle East and military attacks on Iran led to a significant increase in oil prices. In early March, the Brent crude oil futures contract exceeded $90 per barrel [9] - OPEC+ suspended production increases, with a month - on - month decline in crude oil production, while US commercial crude oil inventories increased [11] - Gasoline and diesel crack spreads strengthened, and the US refinery utilization rate decreased but was higher year - on - year. In March, affected by the geopolitical conflict, global crude oil supply tightened, and the demand was in a seasonal off - peak, with prices expected to remain volatile and strong [14][16] PX - In February 2026, PX prices were first depressed and then rose, hitting a new high in two and a half years. In March, the supply was expected to decrease, and the demand to increase, with a tightening supply - demand situation. The cost was expected to remain strong, and prices were likely to be volatile and strong [20][58] - The cost side, including naphtha, was in a tight supply - demand situation, with prices and crack spreads expected to be strong [24] - There were no new capacity plans for the first half of 2026, and the operating rate was expected to decline from a high level, with processing margins remaining at a relatively high level [25][31] - Demand was expected to increase month - on - month, imports were expected to decrease, and inventories were expected to decline [34][36][40] PTA - In February 2026, PTA prices were driven by costs, first falling and then rising, reaching a new high in two and a half years. In March, supply and demand were expected to increase, with continued inventory accumulation, but cost strength would drive price increases [61][107] - Production was expected to increase as the operating rate was expected to rise to around 80%. There were no new capacity plans in 2026 [67][68] - Processing fees were under pressure, exports were expected to decline, and polyester capacity was increasing, with the operating rate expected to seasonally recover [71][78][83] Ethylene Glycol - In February 2026, ethylene glycol prices were under pressure due to high operating rates, weak demand, and inventory accumulation. In March, affected by the geopolitical conflict, prices rebounded strongly from the bottom [110] - The operating rate was expected to decline, with no new capacity in March, imports were expected to decrease, and ports were expected to shift from inventory accumulation to destocking [114][119][124] - Downstream polyester profits were under pressure, and the polyester operating rate was expected to seasonally recover, with an increase in demand for ethylene glycol [128][138] Polyester Staple Fiber - In February 2026, polyester staple fiber prices were first depressed and then rose, driven by costs, reaching a new high since October 2024. In March, supply and demand were expected to increase, but demand was relatively weak, and prices were expected to be volatile and strong [157][207] - Production capacity was expected to remain stable in the short term, with an increase in production year - on - year. The operating rate was expected to gradually recover, and processing fees were under pressure [163][166] - Terminal orders were expected to be postponed, textile and clothing exports were expected to be restricted, and inventories were expected to remain stable at around 15 days [169][172][192] Polyester Bottle Chips - In February 2026, polyester bottle chip prices followed costs with a strong - side oscillation, and processing fees were repaired. In March, prices continued to rise, with a tightening supply - demand situation and a decline in inventories [210][246] - The operating rate was expected to remain around 70% and then rise to 80% in the second half of the month. There were no new capacity plans in the short term, and production was expected to increase month - on - month [215][220] - Exports were expected to seasonally increase, domestic demand was expected to gradually recover, and inventories were expected to decline [225][228][230]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the unexpected decrease in US non - farm payrolls in February and the rise in the unemployment rate initially strengthened the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, but the Middle - East geopolitical war led to a sharp increase in energy prices and global inflation expectations, causing a significant decline in global risk appetite. Domestically, the manufacturing PMI in February decreased, and the overall goals and policy intensity in the government work report for 2026 are lower than in 2025. The market trading logic currently focuses on Middle - East geopolitical risks, and short - term market sentiment has cooled, with short - term stock indices likely to correct [4]. - Different asset classes have different trends: stock indices may experience increased short - term volatility; treasury bonds may oscillate in the short term; black metals, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals may oscillate in the short term; energy and chemical products have risen significantly in the short term; and different industries within each asset class also have their own characteristics [4]. Summary by Directory Macro - finance - Overseas: US non - farm payrolls in February decreased by 92,000 unexpectedly, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. The Middle - East geopolitical war led to reduced production in oil - producing countries, a sharp increase in energy prices, and a short - term rise in global inflation expectations, along with an increase in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, and a significant decline in global risk appetite. - Domestic: The manufacturing PMI in February was 49%, 0.3 percentage points lower than the previous month, indicating a slight slowdown in economic sentiment. The overall goals and policy intensity in the government work report for 2026 are lower than in 2025. - Asset trends: Stock indices may experience increased short - term volatility and are recommended for short - term cautious observation; treasury bonds may oscillate in the short term and are also recommended for cautious observation; black metals and non - ferrous metals may oscillate in the short term and are recommended for cautious observation; energy and chemical products have risen significantly in the short term and are recommended for cautious long - positions; precious metals may oscillate in the short term and are recommended for cautious long - positions [4]. Stock Indices - Driven by sectors such as chemicals, pork, and agricultural products, the domestic stock market has risen in the short term. However, due to the slowdown in economic sentiment and the focus on Middle - East geopolitical risks, short - term stock indices may correct. It is recommended for short - term cautious observation [5]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market rose on the night of last Friday. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed at 1,151.16 yuan/gram, up 0.89%; the main contract of Shanghai silver closed at 21,692 yuan/kg, up 2.39%. Spot gold and silver also rose. However, the increase in energy prices and the rise in the US dollar index have a certain suppressing effect on precious metals. It is recommended for short - term cautious long - positions [6]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel spot market was flat last Friday, and the futures price rebounded slightly. The real - world demand remains weak, and the inventory has exceeded the 2025 high. Supply will continue to remain high in the future. It is recommended to view the steel market with an interval - oscillation mindset in the short term [7][8]. - **Iron Ore**: The futures and spot prices of iron ore rebounded to varying degrees last Friday. The daily output of molten iron decreased due to the northern production restrictions during the Two Sessions. The current supply is in the off - season. It is recommended to view the iron ore price with an interval - oscillation mindset [8]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat last Friday, and the futures prices showed a strong trend. The export restrictions on South African manganese ore and the rebound in thermal coal prices boosted the silicon manganese market. It is recommended to view the futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese with a rebound mindset [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The GDP growth target for 2026 is set at 4.5 - 5%, indicating a rational and moderate - stimulus economic policy. The demand during the peak season needs to be verified. The refined copper production is at a record - high level, and the inventory has been accumulating, indicating a long - term supply shortage but a short - term sufficiency [10]. - **Aluminum**: The overnight performance was weak on Friday, but the price recovered during the day. The conflict is expected to support the aluminum price, but the medium - term trend is relatively cautious due to the restart of European smelters and high domestic production [11]. - **Zinc**: The supply of zinc concentrate will increase in 2026. The domestic smelting output remains at a relatively high level, and overseas production will recover. The demand is not optimistic, and the inventory has increased [12]. - **Lead**: The global refined lead market is expected to remain in a supply - surplus pattern in 2026, and the price will continue to oscillate widely but be weak overall [12]. - **Nickel**: The LME nickel inventory is much higher than in previous years. The RKAB quota in Indonesia has decreased significantly in 2026. The nickel price has strong support at the bottom, but the upward momentum and space are limited [13]. - **Tin**: The smelting start - up rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi has increased seasonally. The supply will increase as the mines in Myanmar resume production. The demand is differentiated, and the price may continue to be weak in the short term [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly production of lithium carbonate has increased, and the social inventory has decreased. The supply and demand are both strong, but the upward drive is insufficient. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and cautious observation is recommended [15]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The weekly production has increased, and the social inventory has decreased slightly. It is expected to oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to the cost support [15][16]. - **Polysilicon**: The production in February decreased, and the inventory has been accumulating. The price is expected to oscillate weakly, and short - positions should be held cautiously [16]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The conflict in the Middle East has led to a substantial increase in oil prices, and it is expected that oil prices still have room to strengthen. However, attention should be paid to subsequent geopolitical developments, and short - term protection can be achieved through put options [17]. - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt has followed the rise in oil prices. The release of floating storage of sanctioned oil may relieve the pressure on raw material prices. The inventory is at a relatively low level, providing short - term support. The short - term absolute price will continue to follow crude oil [17]. - **PX**: The price of PX has followed the rise in crude oil prices. The terminal start - up rate has rebounded, and the price is expected to continue to be strong in the short term [18]. - **PTA**: The price of PTA has followed the rise in crude oil prices. The position has increased significantly, but there is a risk of negative feedback in the later stage. Attention should be paid to terminal orders and downstream inventory [18]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price of ethylene glycol has followed the rise in oil prices, but the inventory is at a three - year high. The follow - up increase may be less than that of PTA and other varieties, and it is expected to be strong in the short term [18]. - **Short - fiber**: The price of short - fiber has followed the energy and chemical sector and is expected to remain strong in the short term. Attention should be paid to the increase in peak - season orders [19][20]. - **Methanol**: The market is concerned about the supply shortage due to the decrease in imports. The domestic production enthusiasm is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be strong, but attention should be paid to the risk of downstream shutdown [20]. - **PP**: Affected by downstream replenishment and supply concerns, the inventory has decreased rapidly. The price may fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to geopolitical developments [20]. - **LLDPE**: The downstream demand has recovered, and the inventory has decreased. The cost support is strong, but attention should be paid to the abnormal fluctuations in crude oil caused by geopolitics [20]. - **Urea**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [21]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The geopolitical conflict may support the price of US soybeans, which are under pressure from the South American harvest [22]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The price of soybean and rapeseed meal has broken through and strengthened with the rise of US soybeans, but the domestic high - inventory and weak - demand fundamentals may suppress the spot price. The supply of rapeseed will increase, and the price may fluctuate [22]. - **Oils and Fats**: The increase in oil prices has boosted the competitiveness of biodiesel, driving the price of oils and fats. Palm oil may have a phased bull market, and domestic soybean and rapeseed oils are expected to strengthen synchronously [23]. - **Corn**: The price increase of corn has slowed down. The supply may increase, which may limit the upside risk preference [24]. - **Pigs**: The overall supply - demand situation is loose, and the industry is expected to clear excess capacity. The price is expected to remain at the bottom in March [24].

Report Summary 1. Core View - The report focuses on the mid - stream green development, covering the mid - view events, industry overview of upstream, mid - stream, and downstream sectors [1][3] - It also presents various economic policy changes and price trends in different industries 2. Industry Overview Upstream - Energy: International crude oil and liquefied natural gas prices are continuously rising [3] - Agriculture: Pork prices are falling [3] - Chemical: Polyethylene prices are rising [3] Mid - stream - Chemical: PX operating rate is increasing, while PTA operating rate is at a low level [3] - Energy: Coal consumption of power plants is decreasing [3] Downstream - Real estate: Seasonal decline in the sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities [4] - Service: Decline in the number of domestic flights [4] 3. Mid - view Events Production Industry - The government aims to strengthen the infrastructure for AI development and implement the construction of new infrastructure such as super - large - scale intelligent computing clusters and computing - power synergy [1] - The term "green fuel" is included in the government work report, with measures to promote green transformation, including setting up a national low - carbon transformation fund, cultivating new growth points like hydrogen energy and green fuel, and controlling high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects [1] Service Industry - The economic growth target is adjusted from "around 5%" to 4.5% - 5.0% [2] - In 2026, the deficit rate is 4% and the deficit scale is 5.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 230 billion yuan compared to last year [2] - Monetary policy aims to keep the comprehensive social financing cost at a low level [2] - Consumption policy shifts from direct subsidies to activating demand and reducing costs [2] - Green development focuses on carbon emission targets and eliminating backward production capacity [2] - Real estate policy focuses on risk resolution and stock management [2] 4. Key Industry Price Indicators | Industry | Indicator | Value on 3/2 | YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price of corn | 2308.6 yuan/ton | 1.00% | | | Spot price of eggs | 6.2 yuan/kg | 2.14% | | | Spot price of palm oil | 8960.0 yuan/ton | 3.39% | | | Spot price of cotton | 16594.3 yuan/ton | - 0.73% | | | Average wholesale price of pork | 17.2 yuan/kg | 2.82% | | | Spot price of copper | 101608.3 yuan/ton | - 0.37% | | | Spot price of zinc | 24702.0 yuan/ton | 1.03% | | Non - ferrous metals | Spot price of aluminum | 24406.7 yuan/ton | 4.11% | | | Spot price of nickel | 140516.7 yuan/ton | - 1.89% | | | Spot price of aluminum | 16693.8 yuan/ton | 0.34% | | | Spot price of rebar | 3156.2 yuan/ton | 0.56% | | Ferrous metals | Spot price of iron ore | 769.3 yuan/ton | - 0.03% | | | Spot price of wire rod | 3320.0 yuan/ton | - 0.15% | | | Spot price of glass | 13.4 yuan/square meter | 0.00% | | Non - metals | Spot price of natural rubber | 16633.3 yuan/ton | - 2.16% | | | China Plastic City Price Index | 847.2 | 8.13% | | Energy | Spot price of WTI crude oil | 74.7 dollars/barrel | 14.12% | | | Spot price of Brent crude oil | 81.4 dollars/barrel | 15.15% | | | Spot price of liquefied natural gas | 3552.0 yuan/ton | 23.25% | | | Coal price | 792.0 yuan/ton | - 0.25% | | Chemical | Spot price of PTA | 5702.4 yuan/ton | 8.19% | | | Spot price of polyethylene | 7491.7 yuan/ton | 11.43% | | | Spot price of urea | 1857.5 yuan/ton | 1.50% | | | Spot price of soda ash | 1202.9 yuan/ton | 0.00% | | Real estate | Cement price index (national) | 128.0 | - 1.08% | | | Building materials composite index | 113.6 points | - 0.18% | | | Concrete price index (national) | 89.8 points | 0.00% | [34]