News Summary Core Viewpoint - The recent EIA natural gas report indicates a significant increase in U.S. natural gas inventories, while geopolitical developments and sanctions against Iran are impacting the LNG market dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: EIA Natural Gas Report - As of the week ending October 3, U.S. natural gas inventories totaled 36,410 billion cubic feet, an increase of 800 billion cubic feet from the previous week [1] - Year-on-year, inventories rose by 230 billion cubic feet, reflecting a 0.6% increase, and are 1,570 billion cubic feet above the five-year average, marking a 4.5% increase [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Developments - Citigroup analysts reported that BP unexpectedly won an arbitration case against U.S. LNG supplier Venture Global, which could positively influence BP's efforts to recover from previous setbacks [1] - BP and other companies accused Venture Global of selling LNG cargoes on the spot market for profit instead of fulfilling contractual obligations following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1] - The U.S. has announced additional sanctions against Iran, targeting over 50 individuals, entities, and vessels believed to assist in Iran's oil and LPG sales and transportation [1] Group 3: Market Analysis - Hualian Futures noted that international oil prices remain weak due to OPEC+ production increases, with LNG prices lower than LPG, and shipping costs for liquefied gas in a normal range [1] - Domestic LPG supply is below levels seen in the past two years, while port inventory levels are at mid-range for recent years [1] - Chemical demand has shown a week-on-week rebound, but overall demand remains subdued, with gasoline consumption at a four-year low and restaurant consumption growth declining [1] Group 4: Strategy and Recommendations - Hualian Futures suggests a cautious approach, recommending to observe the market for now due to high inventory levels and low demand [1] - Zhonghui Futures indicates that the oil price center is shifting downward, with Saudi Arabia lowering CP prices, leading to a bearish outlook on costs [2] - The supply side remains relatively ample, with factory inventories rising and downstream chemical demand showing some recovery [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The short - term nickel price will mainly show a volatile trend, is easily affected by macro - sentiment, with an unchanged supply surplus pattern, high inventory, and limited upside potential [3]. - The stainless - steel price shows signs of stopping decline and rebounding due to nine - week consecutive decline in inventory and rising material costs, and the demand situation during the consumption peak season needs to be monitored [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On September 10, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2510 opened at 120,500 yuan/ton and closed at 120,850 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.07% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 75,006 (- 25,275) lots, and the open interest was 81,612 (775) lots [1]. - The Shanghai nickel 2510 contract showed a narrow - range fluctuation pattern, with the closing price down 90 yuan from the previous trading day. The net short position of the main contract decreased, and the technical side presented a pattern of "20 - day moving average suppression but cost - line support". The trading volume shrank significantly, indicating strong market wait - and - see sentiment [1]. - The nickel ore market remained in a wait - and - see state, with rising freight rates and firm prices. Philippine mines had firm quotes, and shipments were slightly delayed due to rainfall. Domestic iron plants' profits remained in the red, and nickel ore procurement was cautious. In Indonesia, the supply was loose, and the September (Phase II) domestic trade benchmark price was expected to rise by 0.2 - 0.3 dollars [2]. - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 122,700 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot trading was generally average, and the spot premiums of refined nickel brands remained stable. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warrant volume was 22,304 (- 295) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 221,094 (3,024) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - Short - term nickel price will mainly fluctuate, and the trading strategy is mainly range - bound operation. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless - steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On September 10, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2511 opened at 12,940 yuan/ton and closed at 12,915 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 115,463 (+ 5,951) lots, and the open interest was 123,168 (- 4,171) lots [3]. - The stainless - steel main contract showed a weakly volatile pattern. Affected by the weakening of the black market, the price once fell below 12,900 yuan/ton at night. It strengthened during the day session and finally stabilized above 12,900 yuan/ton. The open interest increased slightly, and the long - short game intensified [3]. - The futures market was weakly volatile, and downstream buyers remained on the sidelines. The trading was consistently light, but the hot - rolled supply was tight, and the inquiry and trading were better than those of cold - rolled products. The stainless - steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets were both 13,200 (+ 0) yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 290 - 590 yuan/ton [3]. - According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 952.5 yuan/nickel point the previous day [3]. - **Strategy** - The trading strategy for stainless - steel is neutral for single - side trading. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [5].

Group 1 - The domestic energy chemical market showed mixed performance on August 22, with fuel oil futures experiencing fluctuations, opening at 2723.00 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 2808.00 CNY before closing with a gain of 2.10% [1] - The low-sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure due to ample supply and competitive pricing, leading to a decline in spot premiums to a four-month low, while high-sulfur fuel oil is supported by stable downstream demand despite concerns over seasonal demand decline [1] - New Singapore region inventories are expected to accumulate significantly in August due to the arrival of Western arbitrage cargoes, with more low-sulfur blending components anticipated to flow into the Asian market from the Suez region [1] Group 2 - The international crude oil market is experiencing a range-bound movement this week, with supply and demand dynamics providing some support, while the domestic heavy oil market stabilizes after recent gains, with cautious trading sentiment [2] - The trading range for fuel oil futures is noted to be between 2730-2780 CNY for FU2510 and 3430-3480 CNY for LU2511, indicating a cautious approach from market participants [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report analyzes various futures markets, including bonds, stocks, precious metals, steel, energy, and agricultural products. It provides insights into market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and price movements, and offers corresponding investment strategies for each market [5][8][10]. Summary by Category Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, most bond futures closed down, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, and 5 - year contracts falling, and the 2 - year contract rising. The central bank conducted 520.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 444.6 billion yuan [5]. - **Policy and Economy**: The State Council's executive meeting focused on strengthening domestic circulation, and the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference emphasized expanding domestic demand. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose [5][6]. - **Investment Strategy**: It is expected that there will be no trend - following market, and caution is advised [7]. Stocks - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results, with the CSI 300 and SSE 50 futures falling, and the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 futures rising [8]. - **Investment Strategy**: The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [8][9]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures closed down. The US PPI data in June was lower than expected [10]. - **Investment Strategy**: The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [10][11]. Steel (Ribbed Bars and Hot - Rolled Coils) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, ribbed bar and hot - rolled coil futures declined slightly. The spot prices of steel products were reported at certain ranges [12]. - **Supply - Demand**: The important meeting at the beginning of the month led to expectations of supply contraction, but the real - estate downturn and over - capacity still suppress prices. The market is in the off - season, and the price rebound space is limited [12]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors can wait for short - selling opportunities after the rebound, take profits in a timely manner, and pay attention to position management. Light - position participation is recommended [12][13]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rose slightly. The spot prices of iron ore were reported [14]. - **Supply - Demand**: Policy expectations boosted prices, but the supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally. The price valuation is relatively high, and the short - term trend may turn to shock consolidation [14]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors can look for low - buying opportunities, take profits on rebounds, and pay attention to position management. Light - position participation is recommended [14][15]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures declined slightly [16]. - **Supply - Demand**: The meeting at the beginning of the month led to supply contraction expectations, but the actual supply is increasing. The demand for coke is weak, but cost support exists [16]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors can wait for medium - term short - selling opportunities, take profits in a timely manner, and pay attention to position management. Light - position participation is recommended [16][17]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures declined. The spot prices of ferroalloys were reported [18]. - **Supply - Demand**: The demand for ferroalloys has peaked in the short term, and the supply is still high. The price is under pressure, but the cost support is strengthening [18]. - **Investment Strategy**: If the spot losses continue to expand, investors can consider low - value call options [18][19]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil opened lower and fluctuated, supported by the 10 - day moving average [20]. - **Supply - Demand**: The decrease in US active rigs and summer oil demand support prices, but tariff frictions and sanctions on Russia restrict price increases [21]. - **Investment Strategy**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities for the main crude oil contract [22]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated upward after a continuous decline [23]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply of fuel oil is sufficient, the spot discount has widened, and trade frictions are negative for prices [24]. - **Investment Strategy**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities for the main fuel oil contract [25]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures declined. The spot price in Shandong remained stable [26]. - **Supply - Demand**: The raw material cost has decreased, and the supply - demand is short - term loose. Wait for the market to stabilize before participating in the rebound [26]. - **Investment Strategy**: Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [26][27]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The Shanghai spot price remained stable [28]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply has increased, the cost support has weakened, and the demand is mixed. The inventory has decreased slightly [28]. - **Investment Strategy**: The market may be in a strong - side shock, and consider medium - term long - buying opportunities [28][29]. PVC - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, PVC futures declined. The spot price decreased, and the basis remained stable [30]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is excessive, the demand is weak, and the export is affected. The cost has decreased, and the profit has improved [30]. - **Investment Strategy**: The market is in the bottom - shock stage [30][33]. Urea - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, urea futures declined slightly. The spot price in Shandong remained stable [34]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is at a high level, the demand is limited, and the inventory is higher than expected [34]. - **Investment Strategy**: The short - term market is in shock, and a medium - term bullish view is recommended [34][35]. PX - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PX2509 contract fluctuated and adjusted. The PXN and PX - MX spreads were reported [36]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply - demand balance is tight in the short term, but the cost support from crude oil is insufficient [36]. - **Investment Strategy**: Participate cautiously, pay attention to crude oil price changes, and control risks [36]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PTA2509 contract declined. The spot price and basis rate were reported [37]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply has increased, the demand has weakened, and the cost support from crude oil is insufficient. The processing fee is at a low level, and future production cuts may increase [37]. - **Investment Strategy**: Participate in the range, look for opportunities to expand the processing fee at low levels, and control risks [37]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures rose. The supply, inventory, and demand data were reported [38]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply pressure has been relieved, the inventory is at a low level, and there is support below [38]. - **Investment Strategy**: Participate in the range, pay attention to port inventory and import changes [38]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2509 contract declined. The supply, demand, and cost data were reported [39]. - **Supply - Demand**: The short - term fundamental drive is insufficient, some factories are reducing production, and the processing fee is gradually recovering [39]. - **Investment Strategy**: The short - fiber may fluctuate with the cost. Be cautious about the processing - difference recovery space, pay attention to cost changes and production - cut efforts, and control risks [39]. Bottle Chips - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the bottle - chip 2509 contract declined. The cost, supply, and demand data were reported [40]. - **Supply - Demand**: The raw material price support is insufficient, the supply has decreased due to more maintenance, and the demand is improving [40]. - **Investment Strategy**: Participate cautiously, pay attention to raw material price changes [40]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of soda ash declined. The production and inventory data were reported [41]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is at a high level, the demand is general, and the long - term supply - demand imbalance is difficult to improve. The market hopes for macro - news support [41]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is in a weak - stable shock [41]. Glass - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of glass declined. The production and market situation data were reported [42][43]. - **Supply - Demand**: The actual supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the market sentiment is weak. The price may rebound in the short term due to cost support [43]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price may rebound in the short term [43]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of caustic soda declined. The production, inventory, and profit data were reported [44]. - **Supply - Demand**: The production is increasing, the inventory is decreasing, and the market is affected by alumina price and supply. The overall support is limited [44][46]. - **Investment Strategy**: The short - term support is available, but the overall support is limited [44][46]. Pulp - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of pulp rose slightly. The supply, demand, and price data were reported [47][48]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is expanding, the demand is weak, and the market is in the off - season. The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [48]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [48]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose. The market sentiment has improved [50]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply - demand pattern has not changed, the supply is strong, the consumption has improved, but the inventory is high. The price is difficult to reverse without large - scale capacity reduction [51]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors should not chase the high price [51]. Copper - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper fluctuated slightly, supported by the 60 - day moving average. The spot price was reported [52]. - **Supply - Demand**: The US tariff on copper has been implemented, which has led to the return of refined copper and depressed the price. The price is expected to stabilize [52]. - **Investment Strategy**: Short - term long - buying for the main Shanghai copper contract [52][53]. Tin - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin fluctuated and declined. The supply and demand data were reported [53]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is tight, the consumption is good, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to be strong - side shock [53][54]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is expected to be strong - side shock [54]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel declined. The supply and demand data were reported [55]. - **Supply - Demand**: The consumption expectation is good, but the actual consumption is weak, and the inventory is relatively high. The price is expected to fluctuate [55]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate [55]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil futures rose. The spot prices were reported [56]. - **Supply - Demand**: The US soybean good - rate has increased, the domestic soybean arrival is high, the oil - mill profit is low, and the demand is mixed [56]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider long - buying opportunities for soybean meal at low levels; consider call options for soybean oil after the price decline [56][57]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil rose, following the trend of soybean oil futures. The export and inventory data were reported [58]. - **Supply - Demand**: The export has decreased, the inventory has increased, and the domestic inventory is at a medium - high level [58]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider expanding the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [58][59]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: Canadian rapeseed declined. The import and inventory data were reported [60]. - **Supply - Demand**: The import has decreased, and the inventory is at a high level [60]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider long - buying opportunities for the ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal [60][61]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures rebounded. The US and domestic supply - demand data were reported [62][63]. - **Supply - Demand**: The global supply - demand is expected to be loose, the domestic industry is in the off - season, and the downstream inventory is increasing [63]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider short - selling at high prices [63][65]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic sugar futures fluctuated. The Brazilian and Indian production and inventory data were reported [66]. - **Supply - Demand**: The Brazilian production increase expectation has decreased, and the domestic supply - demand contradiction is not sharp [66]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is in the range - shock stage, and it is advisable to wait and see [66][67]. Apple - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures rose slightly. The production and inventory data were reported [68][69]. - **Supply - Demand**: The production reduction expectation has been falsified, and the production is expected to increase slightly [68][69]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider short - selling at high prices [68][70]. Live Pigs - **Market Performance**: The national average price of live pigs declined. The regional price trends and supply - demand data were reported [71]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the price is expected to be stable with a narrow adjustment [71][73]. - **Investment Strategy**: Hold previous short positions and pay attention to the weight - reduction in the south [71][74]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: The average price of eggs in the main production and sales areas rose. The production and inventory data were reported [75]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the price may be under pressure in the short term [75][76]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider the 9 - 10 reverse spread [75][76]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, corn and corn - starch futures declined. The spot prices and inventory data were reported [77]. - **Supply - Demand**: The domestic supply - demand is approaching balance, the consumption is recovering, the inventory pressure is decreasing, and the import may increase [77][78]. - **Investment Strategy**: Wait and see for corn; corn starch follows the corn market [77][78]. Logs - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of logs rose. The cost, supply, and demand data were reported [79][80]. - **Supply - Demand**: The overseas export willingness has decreased, the domestic inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to fluctuate and adjust before the first delivery [80][81]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust before the first delivery [81].