- The report tracks the performance of various stock market indices, including A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and US stocks, highlighting their weekly, monthly, and year-to-date performance[1][16][17] - The report provides a detailed analysis of the performance of different stock market styles, such as growth vs. dividend, small-cap vs. large-cap, and micro-cap vs. CSI 800, including their relative crowding and excess net value[2][60][71] - The report includes a comprehensive analysis of the valuation and equity-bond cost-effectiveness of A-shares, with specific focus on PE_TTM and ERP metrics for various indices and sectors[3][41][49][51] - The report tracks the performance and crowding of different investment styles, such as momentum vs. reversal, and their relative excess returns[2][60][71] - The report provides insights into the impact of US bond yields on the performance of different stock market styles, such as large-cap vs. small-cap and growth vs. dividend[3][82][84] - The report includes a detailed analysis of the main fund indices, including their absolute and relative returns, and tracks the scale of public funds and their impact on the market[3][88][90][94] - The report provides a comprehensive overview of the commodity market, including the performance of various commodity indices in China and the US[3][123][125]

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently experiencing a shift towards price-driven themes, particularly in lithium resources, while the overall sentiment remains mixed with a lack of clear direction [1][3]. Market Analysis - The buying power today was over 1300, which is lower than last week's figures, indicating a potential decline in market enthusiasm [3]. - Selling pressure remains significant, with retail investors continuing to exit, while institutional investors appear to be hedging against the lithium market [3]. - The market is characterized by a "stronger remains strong" dynamic, suggesting that leading stocks continue to perform well despite overall market fluctuations [3]. Sector Performance - Lithium stocks have been a focal point, with futures hitting the limit up, driving interest in related mining resources [1]. - The market has seen a notable increase in speculative stocks, particularly in the ST (Special Treatment) category, with 15 stocks hitting the limit up today [5]. - The performance of micro-cap stocks has also been highlighted, with a notable rise in their index, indicating a potential investment opportunity [1]. Trading Strategy - A "barbell strategy" is suggested as a viable approach, focusing on both high-growth sectors like lithium and more stable investments [1]. - The current market environment requires careful analysis and a shift from previous strategies that relied on broad technology and AI investments [1]. - Investors are encouraged to identify opportunities early rather than waiting for broader market consensus, which could lead to missed chances [1]. Data Insights - The number of stocks experiencing consecutive declines has remained consistent, indicating a controlled market rhythm by major players [8]. - The data suggests two distinct market styles: one favoring upward trends in micro-cap stocks and another focusing on sector rotation in a volatile market [8].

- The macro timing strategy model recommended an equity position of 50% for July, with a signal strength of 100% for economic growth and 0% for monetary liquidity[4][27][28] - The macro timing strategy's year-to-date return as of the end of June 2025 was 1.34%, compared to the Wind All A Index return of 1.04%[4][27] - The micro-cap/large-cap index relative net value rose to 2.00 times, above its 243-day moving average of 1.48 times, indicating strong short-term momentum for micro-cap stocks[5][31] - The volatility congestion ratio was -13.56% year-on-year, well below the 55% risk threshold, indicating that the risk warning has been completely lifted[5][31] - The 10-year government bond yield was -21.85% year-on-year, also below the 30% interest rate risk control line, indicating that medium-term risks are under control[5][31] - Value factor in the CSI 300 pool had an IC of 12.36%, while the growth factor in the CSI 500 pool had an IC of -14.01%[37] - Quality factor in the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 pools had ICs of -18.32% and -2.99%, respectively[37] - Market capitalization factor in the All A-share pool had an IC of -7.07%[37] - Value factor in the CSI 300 pool recorded a weekly return of approximately 3.05%, while the consensus expectation factor in the CSI 500 pool had a drawdown of approximately -1.23%[37] - Market capitalization factor in the All A-share pool had a drawdown of approximately -0.56%, while the reversal factor in the CSI 300 pool recorded a return of approximately 2.09%[37] - Quality factor in the All A-share pool recorded a return of approximately 0.40%[37] - The quantifiable bond selection factors for convertible bonds showed significant differentiation in performance, with the stock growth factor leading with a weekly return of approximately 1.25%[41] - The stock consensus expectation factor followed closely with a weekly return of approximately 1.14%, while the stock quality factor recorded a return of approximately -0.13%[41] - The stock value factor had a drawdown of approximately -0.30%, and the convertible bond valuation factor had the deepest decline with a weekly return of -0.68%[41]

Group 1 - The sudden drop in the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) stocks, with the BSE 50 index falling nearly 6%, is attributed to overcrowding in micro-cap stocks and significant overbought signals in the market [1][2] - The trading volume of the CSI 2000 has exceeded the high point from March, indicating a potential correction in the market [2] - The liquidity situation shows a contraction in net inflows for margin trading and a significant outflow from equity ETFs, leading to a shrinking demand side [2] Group 2 - The U.S. fiscal deficit is projected at 6.1% for this year, corresponding to approximately $2 trillion, with warnings from Treasury Secretary Yellen about the depletion of government cash and unconventional measures by August [2][3] - The global financial system is facing increased uncertainty due to the U.S. fiscal crisis and rising U.S. debt rates, prompting a shift towards "safe assets" [3] - The Japanese long-term interest rates have risen due to comments from Prime Minister Kishida, which may impact global market risk appetite, although the Bank of Japan may intervene if rates continue to rise significantly [3] Group 3 - A-shares have maintained a volatile trend since the second week of May, with a significant number of stocks declining, yet the Shanghai Composite Index remains strong [4] - Long-term expectations for quality assets in A-shares remain positive, with Morgan Stanley's target for the MSCI China Index set at 80 in a basic scenario and 89 in an optimistic scenario [4] - The Chinese economy's recovery is expected to rely on consumption and investment, with policy support needed to boost consumer spending [5]