消息人士：美印没谈拢 遭印度否认，吕特"翻车" 声明还说："双方决定继续接触，以期早日达成一项互利的贸易协定。"但未提供具体时间表。 据政府消息人士透露，双方希望在9月底前达成协议，为特朗普秋季访问印度出席计划中的四方安全对 话领导人会议铺平道路。然而，如果贸易争端持续，此次访问可能推迟至明年。 此次印度贸易代表团对美国进行的访问，是自特朗普8月对印度征收惩罚性关税以来，印度首次派遣高 级别贸易代表团访美。 在本周的会谈中，印度购买俄罗斯石油的问题仍是最大争议点。印度方面要求取消相关关税，而美国方 面则表示，若印度不减少从俄罗斯的石油采购量，达成协议便无从谈起。 外交消息人士表示，需要进一步举行多轮会谈，以解决包括俄罗斯石油问题僵局在内的未决事项。 据香港《南华早报》网站9月27日报道，多名了解谈判情况的消息人士透露称，本周在联合国大会间隙 举行的会谈中，印度和美国的高级贸易谈判代表未能解决双方的关税争端，印度方面敦促美国取消与俄 罗斯能源进口相关的关税。 美国贸易代表贾米森·格里尔同印度商业和工业部长皮尤什·戈亚尔22日在纽约举行了会谈。美国国务卿 马尔科·鲁比奥、印度外交部长苏杰生和美国总统唐纳德·特朗普 ...

Group 1 - Indian exporters are lobbying the central bank to allow them to temporarily exchange earnings from U.S. operations at a rate 15% lower than the current level to mitigate the impact of punitive tariffs imposed by U.S. President Trump [1] - The chairman of the Engineering Export Promotion Council of India, Pankaj Chadha, stated that exporters are seeking a dollar-to-rupee exchange rate of around 103 rupees, while the rupee is currently trading close to a historical low of 88.33 rupees per dollar [1] - Chadha mentioned that due to increased tariffs, goods exported to the U.S. are facing approximately 30% losses, and the exporters hope the government can cover at least half of these loss costs [1]

印度外长苏杰生表示，在对美谈判中"划定了一些红线"。 美国对印度的惩罚性关税如期生效，印度如今毫无"服软"之意。 据新华社报道，美国政府以印度进口俄罗斯石油为由对印输美商品加征的25%惩罚性关税27日正式生 效。至此，美国对印度产品征收的关税税率累计高达50%。 面对压力，印度政府日前已宣布多项政策，重点帮助农民和小企业主应对关税冲击，同时向美方划出不 可妥协的"红线"。此外据消息人士透露，美国总统特朗普近期曾四次尝试与印度总理莫迪通话，不过莫 迪并未接听。 上海国际问题研究院南亚研究中心主任刘宗义向第一财经记者表示，印度购买俄罗斯石油，并不是美印 关系中的新问题，印度认为这一做法早已得到了美国的默许。印度方面这是借机做文章，不愿妥协或作 过多的让步。 莫迪不接电话 在50%惩罚性关税生效的8月27日，莫迪主持了内阁会议。据印度媒体报道，会议重点讨论了印度该如 何应对美国关税的影响，但莫迪本人当天未就关税争端公开表态。 而在美国，美国总统顾问纳瓦罗27日向印度进一步施压，要求其停止购买俄罗斯石油，表示印度的所作 所为让美国蒙受损失，但随后他又话锋一转，表示："如果印度停止购买俄罗斯石油，明天就可以获减 25% ...

国际法、贸易专家提示，未来需在以下三方面预防风险：第一，来自美方更多的垂直行业调查，譬 如"232调查"、"337调查"等，其危害不逊于所谓"对等关税"；第二，由于外溢效应，中国外贸企 业恐怕要预防更多的来自其他国家的"双反"调查；第三，其他突发叠加关税（二级制裁关税）和惩 罚性关税等。 一位税务专家也对笔者坦言，现在美国的关税条目混乱且并不详细。不少外贸企业对于产品品类如何 报税也产生了疑惑，譬如，如果家具品类中出口钢制家具的企业，究竟是钢铝关税先征收一遍，未来 家具关税再征收一遍，究竟怎么算？ 诸多疑惑，请看下文知晓。 特朗普政府以关税作为其施政的重要内容手段，关税威胁并未伴随所谓"对等关税"的公布而结束， 但绝大部分经济体并不具备同美国维持"恐怖平衡"的能力，因而特朗普政府的关税政策将大概率贯 穿其"2.0时期"，并且不断地发生动态变化。 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. government has imposed a 25% punitive tariff on goods imported from India, effective from August 7, 2023, due to India's import of Russian oil, bringing the total tariff rate on Indian products to 50% [1] - The tariffs are expected to reduce India's economic growth by 0.8 percentage points this year and next year, according to Capital Economics [1] - The Indian government estimates that the U.S. tariffs will impact $48.2 billion worth of Indian exports, with a projected trade volume of $128.8 billion between the U.S. and India in 2024 [1] Group 2 - The Indian engineering export promotion council predicts that exports may decline by 20% to 30% due to the new tariffs, as U.S. customers have stopped placing new orders [1] - In response to the tariffs, the Indian government plans to provide financial assistance to affected businesses and promote exports to nearly 50 countries, focusing on textiles, food processing, leather goods, and seafood [1] - The Indian government is seeking free trade agreements with major economies to diversify export markets [2] Group 3 - The Reserve Bank of India is prepared to protect the economy from the impact of high U.S. tariffs, with potential actions to increase credit and liquidity [2] - Indian Prime Minister Modi has emphasized the government's commitment to safeguarding the interests of small businesses, farmers, and livestock owners amid the tariff pressures [2] - The next round of U.S.-India trade negotiations has been postponed due to the cancellation of a U.S. trade delegation's visit to India [2]

Group 1 - The largest gold ETF, iShares Silver Trust, reported a holding of 956.77 tons of gold as of August 21, a decrease of 1.44 tons from the previous trading day [1] - As of August 21, the spot gold price closed at $3,392.10 per ounce, with a daily increase of 0.25%, reaching a high of $3,352.37 and a low of $3,325.08 during the day [1] Group 2 - White House trade advisor Navarro criticized India's continued purchase of Russian oil, predicting a 50% punitive tariff on India to be implemented next week [3] - The Federal Reserve may schedule six rate cuts of 25 basis points each over the next 18 months, potentially lowering the federal funds rate to 3.0% by the end of 2026 [3] - The U.S. labor market has shown signs of slowing down, and inflation has significantly improved compared to three years ago [3]

Core Viewpoint - The core variable of U.S. trade policy remains Trump himself, with a highly controversial tariff strategy expected to be prevalent in the coming years, necessitating countries to become the "greatest common divisor" connecting different trade circles to gain future discourse power [2][23]. Group 1: Trump's Tariff System - Trump's tariff strategy has evolved from targeted "surgical strikes" during his first term to a more comprehensive approach in his second term, characterized by four main components: reciprocal tariffs, punitive tariffs for specific reasons, transshipment tariffs to combat tax avoidance, and industry barriers to protect domestic industries [4][8]. - The "reciprocal tariffs" framework establishes different tariff boundaries for countries, with core countries like the UK and Australia enjoying a baseline tax rate of 10%, while others face rates ranging from 15% to over 25% [5][6]. Group 2: Punitive Tariffs - Punitive tariffs are increasingly used as a core tool for handling diplomatic matters, with various justifications, including combating cross-border crime and exerting geopolitical pressure [8][9]. - The U.S. has raised tariffs on Canadian goods from 25% to 35% due to insufficient cooperation in drug trafficking control, while also imposing additional tariffs on Indian goods due to its purchase of Russian oil [8][9]. Group 3: Transshipment Tariffs - The U.S. has implemented transshipment tariffs to prevent circumvention of tariffs through third countries, imposing a 40% tax rate on goods attempting to bypass tariffs [10][12]. - The challenge lies in the ambiguous definition of "transshipment," which complicates enforcement and necessitates a collaborative regulatory framework with partner countries [12][13]. Group 4: Industry Tariffs - The U.S. has invoked the 232 clause of the Trade Expansion Act to impose high tariffs on strategic industries, aiming to reverse the trend of industrial hollowing and promote domestic manufacturing [16][17]. - Tariffs on steel and aluminum products have been set at 50%, with potential future tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals reaching as high as 300% [17][19]. Group 5: Trade Negotiation Dynamics - Tariffs serve as a preliminary tool in trade negotiations, with the Trump administration relying heavily on verbal agreements, leading to disputes over the interpretation of key terms [20][21]. - The lack of written agreements has resulted in confusion and disagreements in negotiations with countries like Japan and South Korea, affecting the finalization of trade deals [20][21]. Group 6: Economic Impact - The U.S. has entered a high-tariff era, with the average effective tariff rate rising to 18.6%, the highest level since the Great Depression [23]. - The implementation of tariffs has caused fluctuations in import data, with a significant spike in imports prior to tariff enforcement, followed by a decline as companies adjust to the new cost structure [25][28].

Core Viewpoint - The core variable of US trade policy remains Trump himself, and his controversial tariff strategy is expected to be prevalent in the next two to three years, with any country aiming to gain future discourse power needing to become the "greatest common divisor" connecting different trade circles [2][23]. Group 1: Trump's Tariff System 2.0 - During his first term, Trump initiated a trade revolution centered on "America First," using tariffs as a primary weapon, which ignited global trade disputes and altered the existing international trade landscape [4][5]. - In his second term, Trump's tariff tactics evolved into a more structured and comprehensive approach, consisting of four main components: reciprocal tariffs for trade balance, punitive tariffs for specific reasons, tariffs on transshipment to combat tax avoidance, and industry barriers to protect domestic industries [5][6]. Group 2: Reciprocal Tariffs - The "reciprocal tariffs" create a trade circle centered around the US, with countries like the UK and Australia enjoying a baseline tax rate of 10%, while others face higher rates based on their trade relations and concessions made to the US [6][7]. - As of August 29, 2023, new regulations require small packages valued at $800 or less to pay certain taxes upon entry, with specific rates based on the country of origin [7]. Group 3: Punitive Tariffs - Trump increasingly uses punitive tariffs as a core tool for handling diplomatic matters, with various justifications, including combating cross-border crime and exerting geopolitical pressure [9][10]. - The US has implemented significant tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico, and additional tariffs on Chinese products, with the potential for further increases based on cooperation in drug trafficking issues [9][10]. Group 4: Transshipment Tariffs - To close potential loopholes in tariff policies, the Trump administration established a "transshipment" clause allowing customs to impose a 40% tariff on goods attempting to circumvent tariffs through third countries [11]. - The challenge lies in the ambiguous definition of "transshipment," which complicates enforcement and creates uncertainty for US customs [12][13]. Group 5: Industry Tariffs - The US has invoked the 1962 Trade Expansion Act's Section 232 to impose high tariffs on strategically important industries, aiming to reverse the trend of industrial hollowing and enhance domestic supply chain resilience [16][17]. - Tariffs have been applied to steel, aluminum, and are expected to extend to semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, with a notable exemption for companies investing in the US [16][17][18]. Group 6: Oral Agreements and Execution Discrepancies - Tariffs serve as a preliminary tool in trade negotiations, with the Trump administration relying heavily on oral agreements, leading to confusion and disputes over key terms [20][21]. - Discrepancies in the interpretation of agreements have hindered finalizing trade deals, as seen in negotiations with Japan and South Korea [20][21][22]. Group 7: Transition to Inventory Reduction Cycle - Following the implementation of high tariffs, the US has entered a phase of inventory reduction, with significant declines in inventory growth rates for durable and non-durable goods [28][29]. - The shift in import demand is attributed to the finalization of tariff policies and the completion of pre-tariff procurement, leading to a focus on inventory digestion and price adjustments [29][30]. Group 8: Global Trade Landscape Transformation - The global trade structure is undergoing a profound transformation towards a multipolar development, moving away from reliance on the US-China economic model to a more decentralized network of regional trade alliances [23][30]. - Countries aiming to secure future discourse power must position themselves as essential hubs within these diverse trade networks [23].

Group 1: Tariff Strategy - Tariffs are a key tool in Trump's economic policy, evolving from targeted strikes to a comprehensive strategy in his second term[2] - The tariff strategy consists of four main components: reciprocal tariffs, punitive tariffs, transshipment tariffs, and industry protection barriers[6] - The average effective tariff rate in the U.S. has increased by 16.2 percentage points, reaching 18.6%, the highest level since the Great Depression[29] Group 2: Trade Relations and Impact - The U.S. is transitioning to a more decentralized trade structure, moving away from reliance on the U.S.-China economic relationship[3] - The imposition of tariffs has led to a significant increase in import costs, with specific tariffs reaching as high as 50% on steel and aluminum products[21] - The U.S. government is using tariffs as a diplomatic tool, with punitive tariffs being applied to countries like Canada and Mexico, and targeting third-party nations involved in trade with adversaries[11] Group 3: Economic Consequences - Pre-tariff import surges led to a 4.67% month-on-month increase in imports in March, followed by a 1.39% year-on-year decline in June, indicating a demand pullback[29] - U.S. businesses are entering a de-inventory phase, with durable goods inventory growth slowing from 1.52% in March to 0.17% in June[29] - The uncertainty surrounding new tariff tools and potential trade negotiations post-midterm elections poses risks to global supply chains and capital markets[4]

Economic Impact - India's exports to the US, which total approximately $87 billion, could become commercially unviable if the proposed 50% tariffs are implemented, significantly impacting the economy [4][3] - The textile, apparel, automotive parts, steel, and gemstone sectors are expected to be disproportionately affected, with the jewelry industry alone exporting around $9 billion annually [3][4] - A 25% tariff could lead to a GDP decline of 0.2% to 0.4%, potentially pushing India's economic growth rate below 6% for the year [4] Trade Relations - The US has become India's largest export market, accounting for 18% of total exports and 2.2% of GDP [4] - The imposition of high tariffs is seen as a significant setback for India's manufacturing ambitions and could reverse recent gains in attracting foreign investment [4][5] - India's response to the tariffs includes a cancellation of a defense minister's visit to the US, indicating rising tensions in trade negotiations [6] Strategic Shifts - Analysts suggest that the US actions may prompt India to reconsider its strategic partnerships, potentially deepening ties with Russia, China, and other nations [8] - The ongoing uncertainty created by US tariffs could hinder India's ability to attract both domestic and foreign investments [7]