新华财经纽约11月20日电（记者刘亚南）美国总统特朗普20日签署行政令，宣布免除巴西部分农产品适 用对巴西产品加征的惩罚性进口关税。 特朗普在7月30日签署多项行政令，指责巴西政府对前总统博索纳罗进行"政治迫害"等，从8月6日起对 巴西输美产品加征40%从价关税。 此外，特朗普14日签署行政令，从美国东部时间11月13日起不再对部分农产品征收所谓"对等关税"。 （文章来源：新华财经） 根据白宫公布的信息，此次新增免除惩罚性关税的产品主要包括咖啡、牛肉、茶叶、以及水果、坚果、 调料和化肥门类产品，总共涉及约250个8位海关商品编码下产品。 这一关税调整从美国东部时间13日凌晨开始生效，美国海关与边境保护局将据此返还生效后已经征收的 关税。 特朗普在行政令中表示，自己在10月6日与巴西总统卢拉通话，并同意就关切的问题进行谈判。这些谈 判现在进行中。有关建议认为，鉴于与巴西政府的谈判已经取得初步进展等，一些巴西农产品不应再适 用额外的从价税。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that U.S. President Donald Trump and Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva are optimistic about reaching a trade agreement soon, with high-level trade talks scheduled to take place shortly after their meeting [1][3] - Trump expressed a positive relationship with Lula and indicated a willingness to reconsider punitive tariffs imposed on Brazil due to a lawsuit against his ally Jair Bolsonaro [1][3] - The upcoming formal negotiations involve U.S. Trade Representative Jamison Greer and Secretary of State Marco Rubio meeting with Brazilian officials, marking a significant shift in the tone of U.S.-Brazil relations [3] Group 2 - Lula has shown openness to exploring cooperation opportunities with multiple parties, including Trump, to develop critical minerals needed for electric vehicles, advanced weapon systems, and medical equipment [3]

Core Points - The high-level trade talks between India and the United States failed to resolve tariff disputes, particularly regarding U.S. tariffs on Russian energy imports [1][2] - India is urging the U.S. to eliminate tariffs related to Russian oil imports, while the U.S. insists that any agreement is contingent upon India reducing its oil purchases from Russia [2][3] - Both parties expressed a desire to continue discussions to reach a mutually beneficial trade agreement, but no specific timeline was provided [1][3] Group 1 - The recent visit by the Indian trade delegation to the U.S. is the first since punitive tariffs were imposed by Trump in August [2] - The main point of contention in the talks remains India's procurement of Russian oil, with India requesting the removal of related tariffs [2] - Further rounds of negotiations are needed to address unresolved issues, including the deadlock over Russian oil [3] Group 2 - India's Ministry of External Affairs denied claims that Prime Minister Modi was in dialogue with President Putin regarding the punitive tariffs on Russian oil purchases [4][5] - The NATO Secretary-General's comments about Modi's discussions with Putin were labeled as "incorrect and unfounded" by Indian officials [4][5] - The Indian government emphasized that no such conversations took place, countering speculation about India's stance on U.S. tariffs [5]

Group 1 - Indian exporters are lobbying the central bank to allow them to temporarily exchange earnings from U.S. operations at a rate 15% lower than the current level to mitigate the impact of punitive tariffs imposed by U.S. President Trump [1] - The chairman of the Engineering Export Promotion Council of India, Pankaj Chadha, stated that exporters are seeking a dollar-to-rupee exchange rate of around 103 rupees, while the rupee is currently trading close to a historical low of 88.33 rupees per dollar [1] - Chadha mentioned that due to increased tariffs, goods exported to the U.S. are facing approximately 30% losses, and the exporters hope the government can cover at least half of these loss costs [1]

印度外长苏杰生表示，在对美谈判中"划定了一些红线"。 美国对印度的惩罚性关税如期生效，印度如今毫无"服软"之意。 据新华社报道，美国政府以印度进口俄罗斯石油为由对印输美商品加征的25%惩罚性关税27日正式生 效。至此，美国对印度产品征收的关税税率累计高达50%。 面对压力，印度政府日前已宣布多项政策，重点帮助农民和小企业主应对关税冲击，同时向美方划出不 可妥协的"红线"。此外据消息人士透露，美国总统特朗普近期曾四次尝试与印度总理莫迪通话，不过莫 迪并未接听。 上海国际问题研究院南亚研究中心主任刘宗义向第一财经记者表示，印度购买俄罗斯石油，并不是美印 关系中的新问题，印度认为这一做法早已得到了美国的默许。印度方面这是借机做文章，不愿妥协或作 过多的让步。 莫迪不接电话 在50%惩罚性关税生效的8月27日，莫迪主持了内阁会议。据印度媒体报道，会议重点讨论了印度该如 何应对美国关税的影响，但莫迪本人当天未就关税争端公开表态。 而在美国，美国总统顾问纳瓦罗27日向印度进一步施压，要求其停止购买俄罗斯石油，表示印度的所作 所为让美国蒙受损失，但随后他又话锋一转，表示："如果印度停止购买俄罗斯石油，明天就可以获减 25% ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the Trump administration's tariff policies are a significant aspect of its governance, and these policies are likely to continue evolving during its "2.0 phase" [1] - Most economies lack the capability to maintain a "terrifying balance" with the United States, indicating that the threat of tariffs will persist without the announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" [1] - Experts in international law and trade suggest that risks should be mitigated in three areas: increased vertical industry investigations from the U.S., potential "anti-dumping" investigations from other countries affecting Chinese foreign trade enterprises, and unexpected additional tariffs such as secondary sanctions and punitive tariffs [1] Group 2 - A tax expert noted the current confusion surrounding U.S. tariff classifications, leading to uncertainty among foreign trade companies regarding how to report taxes on various product categories [1] - For instance, companies exporting steel furniture are unclear whether they will face tariffs on steel and aluminum first, followed by furniture tariffs, raising questions about the overall calculation of these tariffs [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. government has imposed a 25% punitive tariff on goods imported from India, effective from August 7, 2023, due to India's import of Russian oil, bringing the total tariff rate on Indian products to 50% [1] - The tariffs are expected to reduce India's economic growth by 0.8 percentage points this year and next year, according to Capital Economics [1] - The Indian government estimates that the U.S. tariffs will impact $48.2 billion worth of Indian exports, with a projected trade volume of $128.8 billion between the U.S. and India in 2024 [1] Group 2 - The Indian engineering export promotion council predicts that exports may decline by 20% to 30% due to the new tariffs, as U.S. customers have stopped placing new orders [1] - In response to the tariffs, the Indian government plans to provide financial assistance to affected businesses and promote exports to nearly 50 countries, focusing on textiles, food processing, leather goods, and seafood [1] - The Indian government is seeking free trade agreements with major economies to diversify export markets [2] Group 3 - The Reserve Bank of India is prepared to protect the economy from the impact of high U.S. tariffs, with potential actions to increase credit and liquidity [2] - Indian Prime Minister Modi has emphasized the government's commitment to safeguarding the interests of small businesses, farmers, and livestock owners amid the tariff pressures [2] - The next round of U.S.-India trade negotiations has been postponed due to the cancellation of a U.S. trade delegation's visit to India [2]

Group 1 - The largest gold ETF, iShares Silver Trust, reported a holding of 956.77 tons of gold as of August 21, a decrease of 1.44 tons from the previous trading day [1] - As of August 21, the spot gold price closed at $3,392.10 per ounce, with a daily increase of 0.25%, reaching a high of $3,352.37 and a low of $3,325.08 during the day [1] Group 2 - White House trade advisor Navarro criticized India's continued purchase of Russian oil, predicting a 50% punitive tariff on India to be implemented next week [3] - The Federal Reserve may schedule six rate cuts of 25 basis points each over the next 18 months, potentially lowering the federal funds rate to 3.0% by the end of 2026 [3] - The U.S. labor market has shown signs of slowing down, and inflation has significantly improved compared to three years ago [3]

Core Viewpoint - The core variable of U.S. trade policy remains Trump himself, with a highly controversial tariff strategy expected to be prevalent in the coming years, necessitating countries to become the "greatest common divisor" connecting different trade circles to gain future discourse power [2][23]. Group 1: Trump's Tariff System - Trump's tariff strategy has evolved from targeted "surgical strikes" during his first term to a more comprehensive approach in his second term, characterized by four main components: reciprocal tariffs, punitive tariffs for specific reasons, transshipment tariffs to combat tax avoidance, and industry barriers to protect domestic industries [4][8]. - The "reciprocal tariffs" framework establishes different tariff boundaries for countries, with core countries like the UK and Australia enjoying a baseline tax rate of 10%, while others face rates ranging from 15% to over 25% [5][6]. Group 2: Punitive Tariffs - Punitive tariffs are increasingly used as a core tool for handling diplomatic matters, with various justifications, including combating cross-border crime and exerting geopolitical pressure [8][9]. - The U.S. has raised tariffs on Canadian goods from 25% to 35% due to insufficient cooperation in drug trafficking control, while also imposing additional tariffs on Indian goods due to its purchase of Russian oil [8][9]. Group 3: Transshipment Tariffs - The U.S. has implemented transshipment tariffs to prevent circumvention of tariffs through third countries, imposing a 40% tax rate on goods attempting to bypass tariffs [10][12]. - The challenge lies in the ambiguous definition of "transshipment," which complicates enforcement and necessitates a collaborative regulatory framework with partner countries [12][13]. Group 4: Industry Tariffs - The U.S. has invoked the 232 clause of the Trade Expansion Act to impose high tariffs on strategic industries, aiming to reverse the trend of industrial hollowing and promote domestic manufacturing [16][17]. - Tariffs on steel and aluminum products have been set at 50%, with potential future tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals reaching as high as 300% [17][19]. Group 5: Trade Negotiation Dynamics - Tariffs serve as a preliminary tool in trade negotiations, with the Trump administration relying heavily on verbal agreements, leading to disputes over the interpretation of key terms [20][21]. - The lack of written agreements has resulted in confusion and disagreements in negotiations with countries like Japan and South Korea, affecting the finalization of trade deals [20][21]. Group 6: Economic Impact - The U.S. has entered a high-tariff era, with the average effective tariff rate rising to 18.6%, the highest level since the Great Depression [23]. - The implementation of tariffs has caused fluctuations in import data, with a significant spike in imports prior to tariff enforcement, followed by a decline as companies adjust to the new cost structure [25][28].

Core Viewpoint - The core variable of US trade policy remains Trump himself, and his controversial tariff strategy is expected to be prevalent in the next two to three years, with any country aiming to gain future discourse power needing to become the "greatest common divisor" connecting different trade circles [2][23]. Group 1: Trump's Tariff System 2.0 - During his first term, Trump initiated a trade revolution centered on "America First," using tariffs as a primary weapon, which ignited global trade disputes and altered the existing international trade landscape [4][5]. - In his second term, Trump's tariff tactics evolved into a more structured and comprehensive approach, consisting of four main components: reciprocal tariffs for trade balance, punitive tariffs for specific reasons, tariffs on transshipment to combat tax avoidance, and industry barriers to protect domestic industries [5][6]. Group 2: Reciprocal Tariffs - The "reciprocal tariffs" create a trade circle centered around the US, with countries like the UK and Australia enjoying a baseline tax rate of 10%, while others face higher rates based on their trade relations and concessions made to the US [6][7]. - As of August 29, 2023, new regulations require small packages valued at $800 or less to pay certain taxes upon entry, with specific rates based on the country of origin [7]. Group 3: Punitive Tariffs - Trump increasingly uses punitive tariffs as a core tool for handling diplomatic matters, with various justifications, including combating cross-border crime and exerting geopolitical pressure [9][10]. - The US has implemented significant tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico, and additional tariffs on Chinese products, with the potential for further increases based on cooperation in drug trafficking issues [9][10]. Group 4: Transshipment Tariffs - To close potential loopholes in tariff policies, the Trump administration established a "transshipment" clause allowing customs to impose a 40% tariff on goods attempting to circumvent tariffs through third countries [11]. - The challenge lies in the ambiguous definition of "transshipment," which complicates enforcement and creates uncertainty for US customs [12][13]. Group 5: Industry Tariffs - The US has invoked the 1962 Trade Expansion Act's Section 232 to impose high tariffs on strategically important industries, aiming to reverse the trend of industrial hollowing and enhance domestic supply chain resilience [16][17]. - Tariffs have been applied to steel, aluminum, and are expected to extend to semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, with a notable exemption for companies investing in the US [16][17][18]. Group 6: Oral Agreements and Execution Discrepancies - Tariffs serve as a preliminary tool in trade negotiations, with the Trump administration relying heavily on oral agreements, leading to confusion and disputes over key terms [20][21]. - Discrepancies in the interpretation of agreements have hindered finalizing trade deals, as seen in negotiations with Japan and South Korea [20][21][22]. Group 7: Transition to Inventory Reduction Cycle - Following the implementation of high tariffs, the US has entered a phase of inventory reduction, with significant declines in inventory growth rates for durable and non-durable goods [28][29]. - The shift in import demand is attributed to the finalization of tariff policies and the completion of pre-tariff procurement, leading to a focus on inventory digestion and price adjustments [29][30]. Group 8: Global Trade Landscape Transformation - The global trade structure is undergoing a profound transformation towards a multipolar development, moving away from reliance on the US-China economic model to a more decentralized network of regional trade alliances [23][30]. - Countries aiming to secure future discourse power must position themselves as essential hubs within these diverse trade networks [23].