Group 1 - European stock markets reached record highs for the first time since mid-January, with mining stocks rebounding and tourism, leisure, and banking sectors leading the gains [1] - The Stoxx Europe 600 index closed up by 1%, while defensive sectors, including food and beverage stocks, also saw gains, although real estate stocks were among the worst performers [1] - Mining stocks initially fell by 3.5% during the trading session but ultimately rebounded by 0.8%, influenced by U.S. President Donald Trump's plan to initiate a strategic critical mineral reserve project with $12 billion in seed funding [1] Group 2 - On February 2, the downward trend in metal prices eased, allowing major European stock indices to recover previous losses, with the UK FTSE 100, France's CAC 40, Germany's DAX 30, and Italy's FTSE MIB all posting gains [1] - The Spanish IBEX 35 index also reached a historical high during this period [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper prices are expected to stabilize. The supply of copper mines remains tight, the supply of refined copper in China maintains high growth, and the downstream consumption willingness recovers after the copper price drops, alleviating the surplus expectation [4]. - Aluminum prices are supported. Although the domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories continue to accumulate and the downstream demand is still weak, the LME aluminum inventory is at a relatively low level, and the US aluminum spot premium remains high. If the volatility of precious metals decreases and the domestic inventory performance is better than the seasonality, the aluminum price is expected to stabilize [6]. - The lead industry is currently weak. The apparent inventory of lead ore rises, the smelting profit is supported by high - priced silver, the TC remains low, the production rate of primary lead remains at a relatively high level, and the primary lead ingot accumulates. The waste inventory of secondary lead rises, the secondary lead smelting profit declines slightly, but the production rate of secondary lead rises marginally. The production rate of downstream battery enterprises declines slightly, and both the smelting finished product inventory and social inventory rise [8]. - Zinc prices are still in the process of making up for the macro - attribute rise of the sector. The raw material inventory of zinc ore rises, the decline rate of zinc ore slows down, the inventory accumulation of LME zinc ingots slows down, the spread between 3 - 15 months of LME zinc rises, and the Shanghai - London ratio drops again. The rise in overseas natural gas prices causes concerns about the cost of European smelting enterprises. The zinc - copper ratio and zinc - aluminum ratio are at absolute lows. After the market sentiment fades, the trading focus of zinc prices may return to the industrial logic [10][11]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. The supply and demand of tin ingots are marginally loose, and the inventory has been rising steadily recently. It is recommended to wait and see [13]. - Nickel prices are expected to be weak in the short term. The market may return to real - world trading from expected trading. The premium of refined nickel over ferronickel remains high, and the production of refined nickel is expected to increase significantly in January. The continuous increase of domestic nickel inventory in the past three weeks has significantly dragged down the nickel price [16]. - For lithium carbonate, although the fundamental improvement expectation remains unchanged, the current commodity market has large fluctuations, and the market atmosphere has a greater impact than the fundamental changes. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously or try with a light position [20]. - For alumina, the ore price is expected to fluctuate downward, the over - capacity pattern of the smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. It is recommended to wait and see mainly, and pay attention to the supply - side policy, Guinea ore policy, and the Fed's monetary policy [23]. - For stainless steel, although the market fluctuated significantly last week and the price of precious metals fell sharply on Friday, dragging down the non - ferrous metal sector, the cost support of the industrial chain is still strong, and the core upward logic has not changed. It is recommended to maintain a bullish view [26]. - For cast aluminum alloy, although the demand is relatively average, the short - term price is supported under the background of continuous supply - side disturbances and seasonal tightness of raw material supply [29]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Copper Market Information - The US dollar index continued to rise, precious metals and non - ferrous metals declined. The LME 3M copper closed down 1.3% to $12,900/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 100,820 yuan/ton. The LME copper inventory decreased by 300 to 174,675 tons, with Asian inventory decreasing and European and American inventory increasing. The cancellation warrant ratio declined, and Cash/3M remained at a discount. The domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased slightly month - on - month, the bonded area inventory decreased month - on - month, the SHFE daily warrant increased by 0.2 to 159,000 tons. The spot in Shanghai was at a discount of 130 yuan/ton to the futures, and the spot in Guangdong was at a discount of 265 yuan/ton to the futures. The import loss of Shanghai copper spot was about 500 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference was 2,350 yuan/ton, narrowing month - on - month [3]. Strategy View - Trump plans to launch a strategic critical mineral reserve plan, and the gold price has stabilized. The manufacturing PMIs of the US and the eurozone are better than expected, and the sentiment has eased marginally. Although the new Fed Chairman's monetary policy is moderately hawkish, interest rate cuts are still an important means to promote the reshaping of the US manufacturing industry, and the long - term outlook is not pessimistic. The supply of copper mines remains tight, the supply of refined copper in China maintains high growth, and the downstream consumption willingness recovers after the copper price drops, alleviating the surplus expectation. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract today is 99,000 - 103,000 yuan/ton; the reference range for the LME 3M copper is $12,600 - 13,300/ton [4]. Aluminum Market Information - The sharp decline in silver led to the spread of pessimistic sentiment, and the decline in crude oil caused the aluminum price to drop significantly. The LME aluminum closed down 2.52% to $3,056/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23,530 yuan/ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract decreased by 75,000 to 668,000 lots, and the futures warrant increased by 5,000 to 150,000 tons. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 29,000 tons compared with last Thursday, and the aluminum rod inventory increased by 14,000 tons. The processing fee of aluminum rods was raised, and the demand was weak. The spot in East China was at a discount of 220 yuan/ton to the futures, and the downstream procurement sentiment was cautious. The LME aluminum ingot inventory increased by 1,000 to 497,000 tons, the cancellation warrant ratio declined, and Cash/3M remained at a discount [5]. Strategy View - The domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories continue to accumulate, and the downstream demand is still weak due to high prices and the off - season, but it does not constitute a major negative for the price. The LME aluminum inventory remains at a relatively low level, and the US aluminum spot premium remains high, so the aluminum price is still strongly supported. If the volatility of precious metals decreases and the domestic inventory performance is better than the seasonality, the aluminum price is expected to stabilize. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract today is 23,000 - 24,000 yuan/ton; the reference range for the LME 3M aluminum is $3,000 - 3,120/ton [6]. Lead Market Information - On Monday, the Shanghai lead index closed down 1.21% to 16,714 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 104,900 lots. As of 15:00 on Monday, the LME 3S lead fell 44.5 to $1,959.5/ton compared with the previous day, with a total position of 171,300 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,575 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 16,525 yuan/ton, the refined - scrap price difference was 50 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,975 yuan/ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 29,400 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 175 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - continued contract was - 95 yuan/ton. The LME lead ingot inventory was 205,600 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancellation warrant was 18,600 tons. The basis of the overseas cash - 3S contract was - 45.87 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 131.5 dollars/ton. After excluding the exchange rate, the Shanghai - London ratio of the disk was 1.232, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 339.74 yuan/ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets on February 2 was 39,000 tons, an increase of 600 tons compared with January 29 [7]. Strategy View - The apparent inventory of lead ore rises, the smelting profit is supported by high - priced silver, the TC remains low, the production rate of primary lead remains at a relatively high level, and the primary lead ingot accumulates. The waste inventory of secondary lead rises, the secondary lead smelting profit declines slightly, but the production rate of secondary lead rises marginally. The production rate of downstream battery enterprises declines slightly, and both the smelting finished product inventory and social inventory rise. The expectation of Wash being nominated as the Fed Chairman on January 30 led to the ebb of market sentiment, and the prices of the non - ferrous metal sector are currently fluctuating greatly. The US ISM manufacturing PMI on February 2 was 52.6, higher than the previous forecast, which alleviated the panic sentiment to some extent [8]. Zinc Market Information - On Monday, the Shanghai zinc index closed down 5.17% to 24,524 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 215,300 lots. As of 15:00 on Monday, the LME 3S zinc fell 130.5 to $3,268.5/ton compared with the previous day, with a total position of 239,400 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 24,970 yuan/ton, the Shanghai basis was - 45 yuan/ton, the Tianjin basis was - 95 yuan/ton, the Guangdong basis was - 15 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - Guangdong spread was - 30 yuan/ton. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 28,800 tons, the domestic Shanghai - area basis was - 45 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - continued contract was - 90 yuan/ton. The LME zinc ingot inventory was 110,000 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancellation warrant was 13,500 tons. The basis of the overseas cash - 3S contract was - 8.41 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was 70.48 dollars/ton. After excluding the exchange rate, the Shanghai - London ratio of the disk was 1.083, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was - 2,579.4 yuan/ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets on February 2 was 111,200 tons, an increase of 3,800 tons compared with January 29 [9]. Strategy View - In the industrial end, the raw material inventory of zinc ore rises, and the decline rate of zinc ore slows down. The inventory accumulation of LME zinc ingots slows down, the spread between 3 - 15 months of LME zinc rises, and the Shanghai - London ratio drops again. The rise in overseas natural gas prices causes concerns about the cost of European smelting enterprises. On January 29, the new government of Bolivia stopped a zinc ore development project awarded to a Chinese consortium, with a designed processing capacity of 150,000 tons of concentrates. Coupled with the fact that the zinc - copper ratio and zinc - aluminum ratio are at absolute lows, the zinc price is still in the process of making up for the macro - attribute rise of the sector. The expectation of Wash being nominated as the Fed Chairman on January 30 led to the ebb of market sentiment, and the prices of the non - ferrous metal sector are currently fluctuating greatly. The US ISM manufacturing PMI on February 2 was 52.6, higher than the previous forecast, which alleviated the panic sentiment to some extent. The trading focus of zinc prices may return to the industrial logic in the future [10][11]. Tin Market Information - On February 2, the tin price dived in the morning and then hit the daily limit. The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 392,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.0% compared with the previous day. The SHFE inventory was 8,097 tons, a decrease of 527 tons compared with the previous day. In terms of supply, the operating rate of smelters in Yunnan remained stable at a high level last week, and the refined tin output in Jiangxi was still low due to the shortage of scrap tin raw materials. However, after the two places recovered from maintenance, the upward momentum was insufficient, and there were both constraints on the scrap end and high - price wait - and - see from downstream. The short - term supply was difficult to increase significantly. In terms of demand, although the price decline released some rigid procurement demand and the spot trading recovered slightly, the overall price was still at a high level, and the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory before the Spring Festival was still not obvious, mostly holding a cautious wait - and - see attitude. Coupled with the cost pressure brought by the overall rise of the metal sector to the terminal industry, the upward transmission speed of demand was slow, and the actual support for the现货 market was limited. As of January 23, 2026, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 11,556 tons, an increase of 555 tons compared with last Friday [12]. Strategy View - The price of precious metals fell sharply on Friday, and the market may return to real - world trading in the short term. Under the background of the marginal relaxation of tin ingot supply and demand and the recent steady increase in inventory, it is expected that the tin price will fluctuate widely in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is 370,000 - 430,000 yuan/ton, and the reference operating range for overseas LME tin is $47,000 - 51,000/ton [13]. Nickel Market Information - On February 2, the nickel price dropped significantly. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 129,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.39% compared with the previous day. In the spot market, the premium and discount of each brand remained stable. The average premium and discount of Russian nickel spot to the near - month contract was - 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The average premium of Jinchuan nickel spot was 7,250 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day. In terms of cost, the price of nickel ore remained stable. The ex - factory price of 1.6% grade Indonesian domestic red clay nickel ore was $54.54/wet ton, the same as the previous day, and the ex - factory price of 1.2% grade Indonesian domestic red clay nickel ore was $23/wet ton, the same as the previous day. In terms of ferronickel, the price fluctuated upward. The average price of 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was 1,054 yuan/nickel point, the same as the previous day [15]. Strategy View - It is believed that the nickel price will be weak in the short term. On the one hand, although the expectation of the reduction of the RKAB quota in Indonesia still exists, with the end of the phased upward trend of precious metals and non - ferrous metals, the market may return to real - world trading from expected trading. On the other hand, the premium of refined nickel over ferronickel remains high. Under the background of the conversion of ferronickel to high - grade nickel matte, it is expected that the production of refined nickel will increase significantly in January. At present, the domestic nickel inventory has increased significantly for three consecutive weeks, which significantly drags down the nickel price. Therefore, whether from the perspective of the overall surplus or the high premium of refined nickel in the structure, the nickel price has a large risk of decline. The short - term operating range of the Shanghai nickel price is 120,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton, and the operating range of the LME 3M nickel contract is $16,000 - 18,000/ton [16][17]. Lithium Carbonate Market Information - The Wuganglian lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) closed at 141,158 yuan in the evening session, a decrease of 8.99% compared with the previous working day. Among them, the MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 132,500 - 150,600 yuan, with the average price decreasing by 13,900 yuan (- 8.94%) compared with the previous working day. The industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 130,000 - 147,500 yuan, with the average price decreasing by 9.31% compared with the previous day. The closing price of the LC26

Core Viewpoint - Trump is launching a $12 billion strategic critical minerals reserve plan, known as the "Vault Plan," aimed at helping manufacturers mitigate supply shocks and reduce the risk of shortages [3][4]. Group 1: Plan Overview - The Vault Plan will combine $1.67 billion in private capital with a $10 billion loan from the Export-Import Bank of the United States to procure and store critical minerals for manufacturers [3]. - The reserve will focus on strategic minerals such as gallium and cobalt, which are essential for products like iPhones, batteries, and jet engines [4]. - Over a dozen companies, including General Motors, Stellantis, Boeing, Corning, GE Vernova, and Google, are already participating in the initiative [4]. Group 2: Financial Structure - The Ex-Im Bank's board is expected to vote on a 15-year loan, which, if approved, would be the largest single loan in the bank's history, exceeding previous transactions by more than double [4]. - The project has been "oversubscribed," indicating strong investor interest due to the backing of creditworthy manufacturers and the involvement of the U.S. export credit agency [5]. Group 3: Operational Details - Companies can utilize their material reserves but must replenish them after consumption; in case of significant supply disruptions, they can access the entire reserve [6]. - The project allows companies to lower the impact of price volatility in critical materials without needing to establish large inventories themselves [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is set to launch a "strategic critical mineral reserve" initiative, known as the "Vault Project," with an initial funding of $12 billion aimed at mitigating supply shocks for manufacturers and reducing the risk of supply disruptions [4][5]. Group 1: Project Overview - The Vault Project will combine $1.67 billion in private capital with a $10 billion loan from the Export-Import Bank of the United States to procure and store critical minerals for manufacturers, including automotive and technology companies [4][5]. - This initiative is described as an unprecedented arrangement for mineral reserves in the private sector, akin to the existing U.S. strategic petroleum reserve, but focused on minerals like gallium and cobalt used in products such as iPhones and batteries [5]. Group 2: Participation and Structure - Over ten companies are already involved, including General Motors, Stellantis, Boeing, Corning, GE Vernova, and Google, with three commodity trading firms responsible for sourcing raw materials [6]. - The Ex-Im Bank's board is expected to vote on the approval of this 15-year loan, which would be the largest single loan in the bank's history, exceeding its previous second-largest transaction by more than double [6]. Group 3: Operational Details - The project allows companies to commit to purchasing a specified quantity of materials at agreed prices without needing to maintain large inventories, thus reducing the impact of price volatility [7]. - Companies can utilize their material reserves but must replenish them after consumption; in the event of significant supply disruptions, they can access their entire reserve [8].

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all down, with Dow futures down 0.06%, S&P futures down 0.28%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.54% [1] - Major European stock indices are all up, with the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.36%, FTSE 100 up 0.58%, CAC 40 up 0.47%, and DAX 30 up 0.69% [1] - WTI crude oil is down 4.72% at $62.13 per barrel, and Brent crude is down 4.47% at $66.22 per barrel [1] - Gold prices are up 1.12% at $4798.4 per ounce [1] Market News - Trump plans to initiate a strategic critical mineral reserve program with an initial funding of $12 billion, named the "Treasury Plan," which combines private capital with loans from the US Export-Import Bank for procurement and storage of minerals, including rare earths [1] - Retail investor enthusiasm has driven up precious metal prices, but the market is experiencing significant volatility, with retail positions fluctuating [1] - International spot gold is under selling pressure, and silver price fluctuations are attracting market attention, with expectations of an interest rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia [1] - JPMorgan Private Bank views the recent gold price movement as a healthy technical correction, raising the gold price target for the end of 2026 to $6150 per ounce [1] - The Chicago Board Options Exchange volatility index has reached a near two-week high, up 2.2 points to 19.64 [1] Company-Specific News - General Motors is participating in Trump's critical mineral strategic reserve plan, with a meeting scheduled between Trump and GM CEO Mary Barra [1] - SK Hynix expects a more than 30% increase in average NAND flash memory prices by Q4 2025, with a projected year-on-year demand growth in NAND of high double-digit percentages [1] - SanDisk anticipates a slight increase in NAND shipment capacity and a 35% rise in average prices by Q4 2025 [1] Economic Data and Events - The US Export-Import Bank's board is set to vote on a $10 billion, 15-year loan for Trump's critical mineral plan later on Monday [1] - Trump plans to meet with GM CEO Mary Barra and mining billionaire Robert Friedland [1] - The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to raise interest rates on Tuesday, with the market pricing in this expectation [1]

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all down, with Dow futures down 0.06%, S&P futures down 0.28%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.54% [1] - European stock indices are all up, with the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.36%, FTSE 100 up 0.58%, CAC 40 up 0.47%, and DAX 30 up 0.69% [1] - WTI crude oil is down 4.72% at $62.13 per barrel, and Brent crude is down 4.47% at $66.22 per barrel [1] - Gold prices are up 1.12% at $4798.4 per ounce [1] Market News - Trump plans to launch a strategic critical mineral reserve program with an initial funding of $12 billion, named the "Treasury Plan," which combines private capital with loans from the Export-Import Bank of the United States for the procurement and storage of minerals, including rare earths [1] - Retail investor enthusiasm has driven up precious metal prices, but the market is experiencing significant volatility, with retail positions fluctuating [1] - The Chicago Board Options Exchange volatility index has reached a near two-week high, rising by 2.2 points to 19.64 [1] Company-Specific News - General Motors is participating in Trump's critical mineral strategic reserve plan, with a meeting scheduled between Trump and GM CEO Mary Barra [1] - SK Hynix expects a more than 30% increase in average NAND flash prices by Q4 2025, with a projected year-on-year demand growth in NAND expected to be in the double digits [1] - SanDisk anticipates a slight increase in NAND shipment capacity and an average price increase of around 35% by Q4 2025 [1] Economic Data and Events - The Export-Import Bank of the United States board is set to vote on a $10 billion, 15-year loan for Trump's critical mineral plan [1] - The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to raise interest rates, with the market pricing in this expectation [1]