以下文章来源于经济观察报 ，作者张成刚 经济观察报 . 经济观察报是专注于财经新闻与经济分析的全国性综合财经类媒体，创办于2001年。聚焦商道、商技和商机，以锐度、悦度、广 度、深度的报道形成了权威的媒体公信力和影响力。 来源丨 经济观察报（ID：eeo-com-cn） 作者丨张成刚 图源丨Midjourney 2025年，"就业"几乎成为全年最具公共情绪张力的议题之一。 一方面，从宏观数据看，就业形势并未出现系统性失控：城镇调查失业率总体维持在合理区间，就业政策密集出台，稳就业始终 被置于宏观政策优先位置。但另一方面，个体层面的就业感受却显著偏冷——"毕业后就业衔接不畅""考编上岸""灵活就业不敢 久干""越努力越焦虑"等叙事在社交媒体广泛传播。 这种"宏观稳、微观紧"的背离，使就业问题不再只是经济指标问题，而演变为一个高度情绪化、结构性失衡与制度性制约的社会 议题。如果只用一句话概括2025年的就业状态，那就是：岗位并非消失了，但"好找、好干、敢干的工作"的可获得性正在下 降。 三股力量交织下的长期结构性困境 要理解2025年的就业困境，必须把它放入更大的时代背景中来看。 第一，产业结构正在深度转型。 传 ...

就业质量仍是重大挑战，超三分之二人员从事脆弱性行业，尤其是妇女、农村工人以及农业人员。 个体经营仍占主导地位，获得稳定工资就业的机会有限，非正规就业现象依然存在，表明仅靠就业增长 并不能保证家庭经济韧性。 （原标题：加纳前三季度就业人数增加33万人） 据"加纳网"12月19日报道，加纳统计局数据显示，2025年前三季度就业人数增加了33万多人，劳动 力人口超过1500万，前三季度平均失业率达12.8%。 此外，就业还存在性别和地区差异，女性就业人数高于男性，但失业率则相反。城市地区的就业水 平和失业率则始终高于农村地区。青年失业率高于全国平均水平，15至24岁人群的平均失业率为 32.5%，大阿克拉地区第二季度15至24岁人群的失业率高达49.3%。劳动力未充分利用率升至23.4%，且 城乡技能错配严重。近半数就业者对轮班制表现出兴趣。 统计局呼吁优先考虑青年就业，并加强学徒制，同时推动正规就业、改善融资渠道以及加强劳动保 护以减少弱势就业，并使技能发展与劳动力市场需求相匹配。 ...

Core Insights - The report by McKinsey reveals that 71% of organizations globally are using generative AI in at least one business area, raising concerns about its impact on the labor market and job displacement [1][2] - Freelance platforms are seen as a frontline for observing the effects of AI, particularly in short-term, remote, and highly fluid job characteristics [1] - A study analyzing nearly 1.4 million tasks from leading freelance platforms indicates a significant decline in demand for tasks traditionally reliant on human labor, such as writing and design, due to the rise of generative AI tools like ChatGPT and Midjourney [2] Summary by Sections Impact on Freelance Market - The demand for freelance tasks has decreased by 21% in the eight months following the release of ChatGPT, with writing tasks seeing a decline of 30.37%, software development down by 20.62%, and engineering design down by 10.42% [2] - In the design sector, graphic design tasks have decreased by 18.49%, and 3D modeling tasks by 15.57%, indicating that generative AI is challenging even creative jobs [2] Skill Displacement - The study highlights that lower-skilled and mid-skilled freelancers are the most vulnerable to job displacement by AI, as tasks like basic writing and logo design can now be completed by AI in seconds [4] - Conversely, high-skilled freelancers, such as those involved in in-depth content creation or complex design, are gaining more recognition as AI struggles to perform these intricate tasks [4][5] Changing Employer Preferences - Employers are increasingly favoring freelancers who can demonstrate proficiency in using AI tools like ChatGPT, indicating that AI collaboration skills are becoming essential in the freelance market [6] Future of the Freelance Market - The report suggests that while AI is displacing certain tasks, it is also creating new high-skill roles that require advanced creativity and critical thinking, as well as the ability to work alongside AI [5][7] - The core challenge in the AI era is identified as "skills mismatch," where workers must enhance their skills to adapt to new technologies, contrasting with past industrial revolutions [7][8] Management Considerations - Companies are advised to recognize tasks that can be automated and those that require human skills to complement AI, ensuring that employees are supported in transitioning from automated roles [9]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the implications of the "Great American Beauty Act" signed by Trump, U.S. employment data, and tariff policies affecting various industries. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Impact of the "Great American Beauty Act"** The new act extends most tax cuts, with an expected GDP boost of no more than 0.6 percentage points by 2026 and a minimal inflation increase of 0.15 percentage points. The stimulus effect is considered mild, as tax cuts are concentrated from 2026 to 2028, followed by increased spending cuts [1][6][8]. 2. **Tax Cuts and Spending Reductions** The act includes corporate tax cuts, personal income tax extensions, and significant spending cuts in areas like clean energy and Medicaid. It aims to help businesses plan future investments but may exacerbate income inequality by primarily benefiting large corporations [2][3][8]. 3. **Employment Data and Market Reactions** June's non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, with 140,000 new jobs added, leading to a reassessment of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, indicating a steady labor market expansion despite a contraction in labor supply [4][16][17]. 4. **Tariff Policies and Trade Agreements** The upcoming 90-day tariff deadline is critical, with potential actions including maintaining current tariffs, adjusting some to relieve domestic pressures, or negotiating new trade agreements. Trump's agreement with Vietnam to impose a 20% tariff has raised concerns about similar actions towards other Southeast Asian countries [5][22][23]. 5. **Fiscal Concerns and Deficit Projections** The new act could lead to an additional deficit of $4-5 trillion over the next decade, but when accounting for $2.8 trillion in expected tariff revenues, the net deficit may only be $1.1-2 trillion, suggesting that market concerns about U.S. fiscal health may be overstated [9][10]. 6. **Government Debt Perspectives** Different economic schools of thought view government debt differently. Classical economists advocate for balanced budgets, while Keynesians support active fiscal policies. Current debt levels are not seen as an immediate risk given the stable economic environment [10][12][13]. 7. **Skill Mismatch in the Labor Market** The U.S. faces a high-low skill mismatch, affecting monetary policy decisions. The Fed is less likely to rush into rate cuts due to strong employment data, which may challenge expectations for future rate adjustments [19][20]. 8. **Future Economic Stability Measures** Trump may focus on creating a stable economic environment to support upcoming midterm elections, potentially continuing tax cuts and promoting job growth [15][24]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Potential Negative Effects of the New Act** Critics argue that the act may worsen wealth inequality and negatively impact low-income individuals due to reduced welfare spending and increased tariffs [8]. 2. **Sector-Specific Employment Trends** Job growth is primarily in low-skill sectors, while high-skill industries face challenges from AI advancements, indicating a need for workforce retraining [18]. 3. **Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators** The stock market has reacted positively to the tax cuts and other factors, with recent highs attributed to reduced geopolitical risks and stable economic fundamentals [14]. 4. **Long-term Economic Outlook** If tariff uncertainties diminish, there is potential for increased business investment and hiring, which could lead to economic recovery in the third quarter [21].