Core Viewpoint - Tencent is expected to rebound significantly by 2025, with its stock price nearing 2021 highs, but there remains a cautious sentiment due to past regulatory challenges and business transformations [1][3]. Group 1: Business Strategy and Adjustments - Since 2018, Tencent has shifted focus from extensive investments to core business operations, a trend that is expected to become clearer in 2024 [3][10]. - Tencent's investment strategy has evolved, with a reduced emphasis on external investments and a stronger focus on enhancing operational efficiency and core business growth [4][11]. - The company has experienced a decline in capital expenditure as a percentage of pre-tax profits since 2010, despite maintaining a high return on invested capital (ROIC) above 30% [6][10]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Market Conditions - Tencent's capital expenditures have rebounded, with pre-tax profits reaching 241.5 billion yuan in 2024, and cash dividends totaling 38 billion yuan, indicating a strong financial position [10][11]. - The recent volatility in the capital markets is attributed to the U.S. government shutdown, which has restricted liquidity, but this situation is expected to improve by mid-November [13][15][18]. - The market is optimistic about Tencent's ability to reignite growth in its core business, particularly in AI and other emerging sectors, as it continues to adjust its capital allocation strategy [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - Tencent is expected to rebound significantly by 2025, with its stock price nearing 2021 highs, but there remains a cautious sentiment among investors due to past regulatory challenges and business transformation efforts [2][3] Group 1: Business Strategy and Transformation - Since 2018, Tencent has shifted its focus from investments to core business operations, with this trend becoming clearer in 2024 [3] - Tencent's investment strategy has evolved, with a reduced emphasis on external investments and a stronger focus on enhancing its core business, particularly in gaming, advertising, and cloud computing [4][10] - The company has faced challenges in capitalizing on emerging trends like live streaming and short videos, leading to questions about its ability to adapt and innovate [4] Group 2: Financial Metrics and Capital Expenditure - Tencent's capital expenditures have historically been high, with a peak of 54% of pre-tax profits in 2018, but this has since fluctuated due to strategic shifts [9][10] - The company's return on invested capital (ROIC) has remained above 30%, indicating strong financial performance, yet the proportion of capital expenditures relative to profits has declined [6][9] - In 2024, Tencent's pre-tax profit was 241.5 billion yuan, with significant cash outflows for dividends and share buybacks, reflecting a commitment to reinvest in core operations [9][10] Group 3: Market Conditions and External Factors - Recent market volatility has been attributed to liquidity constraints caused by the U.S. government shutdown, which has impacted both debt and equity markets [12][14] - The anticipated reopening of the U.S. government in mid-November is expected to restore liquidity, providing a favorable environment for Tencent to continue its business transformation [14] - Despite external challenges, Tencent's financial health remains robust, with a current ROIC close to 20%, positioning the company well for future investments [14]

Core Viewpoint - The company is a Hong Kong investment holding firm primarily engaged in investment activities, operating through four main segments: securities and other investments, fund platform investments, property investment and development, and fund investments [5] Revenue and Profit Growth - Historical revenue and net profit growth rates show fluctuations, with significant changes observed in recent years [7][10] - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue composition of 0.002 billion HKD from securities and other investments, 0.084 billion HKD from Hong Kong property investments, and 2.959 billion HKD from property development managed by GR Realty [9][12] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the average return on equity was -2.75%, a decrease of 2.07 percentage points compared to the same period last year [16] - The net cash flow from operating activities was 94.21 million HKD, while financing activities showed a net outflow of 170 million HKD [20] Asset and Liability Changes - As of the first half of 2025, investment properties decreased by 0.78%, while inventory dropped by 28.7% [27] - Long-term borrowings decreased by 27.67%, while short-term borrowings increased by 74.89% [30] Liquidity Ratios - The current ratio was reported at 0.79 and the quick ratio at 0.43 for the first half of 2025 [34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 82.3 billion yuan for Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 34.8% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 18.0% [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for Q1 2025 was 36.4 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 59.0% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 28.7% [2] - The company's weighted ROE (annualized) for Q1 2025 was 2.10%, up by 0.73 percentage points year-on-year [2] Financial Performance Summary - For 2025E, the company is expected to achieve a revenue of 40,094 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -3.3% [3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025E is projected to be 14,597 million yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.9% [3] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025E is estimated at 1.62 yuan [3] - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to be 9.80 for 2025E [3] - The company’s P/B ratio is expected to be 0.83 for 2025E [3] Market Position and Business Segments - The company maintained a high market share of 7% in margin financing and securities lending (two-in-one business) [7] - The company’s securities main business revenue for Q1 2025 was 72.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29% [7] - The company’s investment income for Q1 2025 was significantly boosted by a 319% year-on-year increase in net interest income [7] - The company’s investment leverage has increased compared to 2024, with total assets at 823.3 billion yuan, a 1% increase from the end of 2024 [7] Future Earnings Forecast - The report revises the 2025E profit forecast upwards while lowering the forecasts for 2026E and 2027E due to competitive impacts from industry peers [7] - The expected net profits for 2025-2027E are 146.0 billion yuan, 161.2 billion yuan, and 170.5 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -4.9%, +10.4%, and +5.8% [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Dongfang Securities [4] Core Views - Dongfang Securities reported a 2024 revenue increase of 12.3% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders rising by 21.7%, resulting in a return on equity (ROE) of 4.14% [2][3] - The significant growth in revenue is primarily driven by the investment business, which saw a 106% increase year-on-year [2][3] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 5.11 billion yuan, reflecting a 50.5% year-on-year increase, although the net profit for the quarter decreased by 146.6% to 0.05 billion yuan [2][3] Summary by Sections Revenue Breakdown - For the full year 2024, the revenue from various business segments is as follows: - Brokerage: 2.51 billion yuan, down 10% - Investment Banking: 1.17 billion yuan, down 23% - Asset Management: 1.34 billion yuan, down 34% - Investment: 4.93 billion yuan, up 106% - Credit Business: 1.32 billion yuan, down 25% [2][3] Financial Performance - The total revenue for 2024 was 19.19 billion yuan, with a net profit of 3.35 billion yuan [2][3] - The company’s financial investment assets reached 221.93 billion yuan, a 13% increase year-on-year [3] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025 and 2026 are estimated at 20.9 billion yuan and 22.5 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 9% and 8% [3] - Expected net profits for 2025 and 2026 are 4.6 billion yuan and 5.1 billion yuan, with growth rates of 38% and 11% [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 19.85, corresponding to a 0.94x PB for 2025 [8]. Core Insights - The company benefited from a recovery in wealth management and investment businesses, with Q4 performance exceeding expectations. The internationalization and specialization capabilities of the company are expected to continuously strengthen its business advantages, aiming to build a world-class investment bank [3][8]. Financial Summary - For 2023A, the company reported revenue of RMB 22,990.20 million, with a projected decline of 11.87%. The net profit for the same year was RMB 6,156.13 million, down 18.97% year-on-year. The forecast for 2024A shows revenue of RMB 21,333.44 million and net profit of RMB 5,694.34 million, reflecting a decrease of 7.21% and 7.50% respectively [7]. - Q4 single-quarter profit reached RMB 2,840 million, a year-on-year increase of 83.2%, driven primarily by the wealth management and investment business [8]. Business Performance - The wealth management business saw significant improvement, with Q4 brokerage revenue reaching RMB 1,700 million, up 67.6% year-on-year and 115.1% quarter-on-quarter. The asset allocation product scale has grown to nearly RMB 370 billion, marking five consecutive years of positive growth [8]. - The investment business benefited from an improved stock and bond environment, with a Q4 single-quarter investment return rate of 4.8%, an increase of 150 basis points year-on-year and 189 basis points quarter-on-quarter [8]. Industry Outlook - The report anticipates an acceleration in supply-side reforms within the industry, with the company’s international and specialized capabilities expected to solidify its business advantages. The new round of capital market reforms focuses on comprehensive investment and financing reforms, which will create opportunities for high-quality securities firms to accelerate their transformation [8].