中央经济工作会议在部署2026年经济工作时强调，推动投资止跌回稳，适当增加中央预算内投资规模， 优化实施"两重"项目，优化地方政府专项债券用途管理，继续发挥新型政策性金融工具作用，有效激发 民间投资活力。"十五五"开局之年，如何采取切实措施推动投资止跌回稳？如何更好发挥财政、债券、 民间投资等对于稳投资的积极作用？记者就此采访了相关专家学者。 着力扩大有效投资 2025年以来，我国固定资产投资下行压力加大，2025年前11个月同比下降2.6%。 "今年基建投资有望迎来修复。项目储备方面，'十五五'规划项目预计将集中在今年开工，中央适时增 加预算内投资规模、增扩新型政策性金融工具，并统筹使用超长期特别国债、地方专项债，将有助于发 挥基建特别是'两重'等重大项目在稳定投资上的压舱石作用。"毕马威中国经济研究院院长蔡伟认为， 随着经营主体市场预期改善和新一轮产业布局持续推进，制造业投资有望触底回升，成为固定资产投资 的最大拉动项。未来，高端制造业将成为推动中国经济转型、应对全球科技竞争的关键抓手。 新旧动能转换带来了投资结构的变化，应优化政府投资结构，加强"硬投资"和"软建设"系统集成，着力 提升政府投资效益。邢伟 ...

中央经济工作会议在部署2026年经济工作时强调，推动投资止跌回稳，适当增加中央预算内投资规模， 优化实施"两重"项目，优化地方政府专项债券用途管理，继续发挥新型政策性金融工具作用，有效激发 民间投资活力。"十五五"开局之年，如何采取切实措施推动投资止跌回稳？如何更好发挥财政、债券、 民间投资等对于稳投资的积极作用？记者就此采访了相关专家学者。 着力扩大有效投资 2025年以来，我国固定资产投资下行压力加大，2025年前11个月同比下降2.6%。 "这既是受一些地方政府化债压力较大、地方投资循环不畅等当期因素影响，也是经济发展阶段变化、 新旧发展动能转换等长期因素的现实反映。"国家发展改革委固定资产投资司有关负责人表示，将深入 贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神，按照中央经济工作会议部署，结合新形势新要求，从畅通供需循环、投 融资循环等方面采取针对性措施，着力扩大有效投资。 "今年基建投资有望迎来修复。项目储备方面，'十五五'规划项目预计将集中在今年开工，中央适时增 加预算内投资规模、增扩新型政策性金融工具，并统筹使用超长期特别国债、地方专项债，将有助于发 挥基建特别是'两重'等重大项目在稳定投资上的压舱石作用。"毕马 ...

Group 1 - Investment is one of the "three driving forces" for economic growth and an important tool for expanding domestic demand, with a focus on "driving investment to stabilize" as a policy goal [1][2] - From January to October, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 408.914 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 1.7%, while the actual physical workload of investment still increased slightly after excluding price factors [1][2] - Real estate investment has a significant impact on overall investment growth, with a year-on-year decline of 14.7% from January to October, pulling down total investment by 3 percentage points [2] Group 2 - Manufacturing investment continues to grow, with a year-on-year increase of 2.7% from January to October, accounting for 25.6% of total investment, which is an increase of 1.1 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2] - The meeting emphasized the need to increase the scale of central budget investment, optimize the management of local government special bond usage, and effectively stimulate private investment [3] - The government will focus on four areas to promote investment stabilization, including optimizing investment structure, improving investment efficiency, deepening financing system reforms, and implementing major landmark projects [3] Group 3 - There remains significant investment potential and space in China, with a need for continuous investment to strengthen the real economy, promote technological and industrial innovation, and address regional development imbalances [4] - Investment in public services such as education, healthcare, housing, and basic public services is essential to address existing gaps [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 in Beijing maintained a relatively positive stance, indicating a focus on stabilizing investment and addressing demand-side weaknesses in the economy [1][2][3] Group 1: Economic Assessment and Policy Directions - The conference highlighted the phrase "strong supply, weak demand," indicating increased attention to the current decline in demand, suggesting that policies targeting demand may be introduced soon [7] - The narrow fiscal deficit rate is expected to remain at 4% next year, with an emphasis on maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and total debt levels, while also addressing local fiscal difficulties [7][8] - Monetary policy will prioritize promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery, indicating a higher focus on economic development and price stabilization among multiple monetary policy goals [2][7] Group 2: Investment and Consumption Strategies - The conference emphasized expanding domestic demand as a key task for next year, with specific measures to boost consumption through increasing residents' income, optimizing the "two new" policy, and releasing potential in service consumption [2][8] - The focus on major projects is expected to be a primary driver for investment recovery, particularly as next year marks the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan [3][9] - Historical data suggests that the market tends to favor large-cap stocks in the week following the conference, with sectors such as oil and petrochemicals, telecommunications, and electronics showing higher probabilities of price increases [3][9]

Economic Policy Insights - The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the structural contradiction of "strong supply and weak demand," marking a shift from the previous focus on "insufficient demand" [5] - The conference highlighted the importance of stabilizing real estate markets through targeted policies, indicating a transition to a new phase of "controlling increment, reducing inventory, and optimizing supply" [6] - A focus on increasing urban and rural residents' income was introduced, with plans for a "special action to boost consumption" and a "rural residents' income increase plan" [6] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The conference reiterated the commitment to "continue implementing a more proactive fiscal policy" and "maintain necessary levels of deficit and debt," suggesting a stable deficit rate for the upcoming year [6] - Monetary policy will prioritize "promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery," allowing for potential reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates [6] Investment and Infrastructure - Plans to stabilize investment include increasing the scale of central budget investments and optimizing the implementation of key projects to stimulate private investment [6] - The report suggests that infrastructure and manufacturing investments will receive support through new policy financial tools and local government bonds [6] Risk Management - The focus on local government debt risk has intensified, with specific measures to "actively and orderly resolve local government debt risks" and prevent the creation of new hidden debts [6] - Risks include potential underperformance in macroeconomic recovery, escalating geopolitical risks, and the effectiveness of related industrial policies [6]

Group 1 - The central economic work conference emphasized "expanding the supply of quality goods and services," aligning with the "14th Five-Year Plan" to stimulate consumer demand through supply-side measures [1] - In 2025, fixed asset investment in China decreased by 1.7% year-on-year from January to October, with expectations for stabilization in 2026 through increased central budget investments and activation of private investment [1] - The conference highlighted the establishment of an "international technology innovation center" and the development of a comprehensive plan for education and talent in technology, indicating a strategic shift from "investment in objects" to "investment in people" [1] Group 2 - New development opportunities are anticipated in sectors such as productive services, discretionary consumption, technology, and new materials [1]

Group 1 - The core focus of the Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 in Beijing is to prioritize domestic demand and build a strong domestic market [1] - The conference emphasizes the implementation of special actions to boost consumption and the formulation of plans to increase income for urban and rural residents [1] - There is a commitment to expand the supply of quality goods and services, optimize the implementation of "two new" policies, and eliminate unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector to unleash the potential of service consumption [1] Group 2 - The conference aims to stabilize investment by increasing the scale of central budget investments and optimizing the management of local government special bonds [1] - It highlights the importance of effectively stimulating private investment through new policy financial tools and advancing urban renewal with high quality [1]

Group 1: Economic Policy Focus - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized five new "musts" for 2024, including balancing total supply and demand, which will significantly influence the macro policy framework for 2025[4] - The conference highlighted the need to stimulate economic potential to address insufficient effective demand and expand domestic consumption[4] - Policies will focus on combining short-term support with long-term structural reforms to enhance market vitality and regulatory frameworks[4] Group 2: Investment and Fiscal Policy - Fixed asset investment saw a year-on-year decline of 1.7% in the first ten months of this year, prompting a call to "stop the decline and stabilize investment"[5] - The conference proposed maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and optimizing local government bond usage to stimulate private investment[5] - Continued implementation of a proactive fiscal policy is essential to address local fiscal difficulties and ensure basic public service funding[5] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Economic Stability - Monetary policy will prioritize stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery, with a focus on using tools like interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio adjustments[6] - The aim is to maintain ample liquidity and support key sectors such as domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium enterprises[6] - The conference indicated that the inflation rate's recovery slope will be a critical observation point for 2025[5] Group 4: Social and Structural Reforms - A plan to increase urban and rural residents' incomes was highlighted, indicating a shift towards income-driven consumption policies[6] - The conference stressed the importance of stabilizing the real estate market, with policies aimed at managing inventory and improving supply[7] - Efforts to clear overdue corporate debts are expected to enhance credit systems and benefit industries with high accounts receivable ratios[7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the new macroeconomic policy framework established during the Central Economic Work Conference, which includes five new "musts" aimed at enhancing economic potential, balancing policy support with structural reforms, and focusing on both material and human capital investments [1][9][10] - The first "must" is to fully tap into economic potential to address insufficient effective demand and release domestic demand space [1][9] - The second "must" stresses the importance of combining policy support with reform and innovation to stimulate factor vitality [1][9] - The third "must" highlights the need to invigorate market vitality while improving regulatory frameworks [1][9] - The fourth "must" calls for a close integration of investments in physical assets and human capital, emphasizing the need for increased investment in education, healthcare, and social security [1][9] - The fifth "must" focuses on strengthening internal capabilities to respond to external challenges, including expanding domestic demand and ensuring industrial chain security [1][9] Group 2 - The article discusses the need to "promote investment stabilization," as the decline in fixed asset investment growth has contributed to insufficient domestic demand, with a reported year-on-year decrease of 1.7% in fixed asset investment for the first ten months of the year [2][10] - Policies aimed at stabilizing investment include maintaining necessary fiscal deficits, increasing central budget investment, optimizing project implementation, and enhancing the role of new policy financial tools [2][10] - The article notes that the focus on investment recovery in major economic provinces will be a key point of attention for 2026 [2][10] Group 3 - The article emphasizes that monetary policy will prioritize stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery, with a focus on the rebound slope of the deflation index as an important observation line [3][12] - Specific measures include the flexible and efficient use of various policy tools such as interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, indicating that these remain options for policy implementation [3][12] - The article highlights the need for financial institutions to support the expansion of domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium-sized enterprises [3][12] Group 4 - The article outlines the plan to "formulate and implement a plan for increasing urban and rural residents' income," indicating that this will begin in the coming year and is a key strategy for promoting consumption [4][13] - The focus on enhancing the income of low-income groups and promoting win-win development for platform enterprises and their operators is emphasized [4][13] - The article also mentions the importance of optimizing the implementation of "two new" policies, which may involve adjusting subsidy structures and methods [4][13] Group 5 - The article discusses the need to "stabilize the real estate market," as fluctuations in real estate sales, investment, and prices are constraints on economic growth [5][14] - Policies will focus on risk resolution in key areas, with an emphasis on sales rather than investment, and will include measures to control inventory and optimize supply [5][14] - The article notes that the reform of the housing provident fund system and the promotion of "good housing" construction will be part of the strategy [5][14] Group 6 - The article highlights the importance of "accelerating the clearance of overdue corporate accounts," as this can help restore the credit system and benefit industries with high accounts receivable ratios [6][15] - The focus on clearing overdue accounts is part of a broader strategy to enhance high-quality development and address issues related to corporate cash flow [6][15] Group 7 - The article mentions the need to "deeply rectify involutionary competition," indicating that measures to standardize competition will continue to be a significant macroeconomic focus [7][16] - The establishment of a national unified market construction regulation is seen as a long-term institutionalization of the anti-involution strategy [7][16] Group 8 - The article discusses the formulation of a "strong energy nation construction plan," emphasizing the importance of the new energy sector as a competitive advantage for the country [8][18] - Key areas of focus include building a new power system, promoting coal power upgrades, and expanding the carbon emissions trading market [8][18] Group 9 - The article addresses the need to "improve the local tax system," which is part of the long-term goals outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan [9][19] - The emphasis on accelerating reforms related to consumption tax is expected to create incentives for local tax source cultivation [9][19] Group 10 - The article highlights the need to "advance the reduction and quality improvement of small and medium-sized financial institutions," indicating that restructuring and local specialization will be prioritized [10][20] - The focus on risk resolution and transformation of local financial institutions is part of a broader strategy to enhance the financial system's stability [10][20]