Core Viewpoint - The Japanese Ministry of Finance is seeking opinions from major traders on reducing the issuance of ultra-long-term government bonds to address severe volatility in the bond market, following previous measures that have not yielded the expected results [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Adjustments - In June, the Ministry announced a significant reduction in the issuance of ultra-long-term bonds, planning to cut the total issuance of 20, 30, and 40-year bonds by 3.2 trillion yen (approximately 22 billion USD) by March next year, doubling the initial draft [2]. - The adjustments aim to alleviate concerns over an oversupply of Japanese government bonds, especially after the central bank reduced its bond purchases [2][3]. - Analysts highlight structural contradictions in the Ministry's approach, suggesting that further adjustments may be necessary [2]. Group 2: Market Response - The Japanese bond market is currently facing selling pressure due to multiple factors, with investor concerns about the future fiscal outlook being paramount [2][3]. - Following the ruling coalition's loss in the upper house elections in July, there are expectations of new fiscal stimulus measures that could lead to a significant increase in bond issuance [2]. - High inflation rates, with July's core CPI rising 3.1% year-on-year, are also driving market expectations for normalization of monetary policy [3]. Group 3: Investor Behavior - There has been a notable decline in overseas investor demand, with net purchases of Japanese government bonds with maturities over 10 years dropping to 480 billion yen in July, only one-third of June's figures [3]. - Domestic institutional investors are also changing their behavior, with trust banks net purchasing 1.47 trillion yen of ultra-long-term bonds, which is about 34% lower than the five-year average [3][4]. - Life insurance companies are expected to become net sellers of ultra-long-term bonds for the first time in history this year [3]. Group 4: Central Bank Challenges - The Bank of Japan faces a complex policy dilemma, as its inaction in raising interest rates amid persistent inflation has heightened market fears of a forced significant rate hike in the future [5]. - Market participants believe that merely consulting and making minor adjustments to bond issuance may not stabilize the market; a clearer signal of monetary policy normalization from the Bank of Japan is deemed necessary [5][6]. Group 5: Fiscal Pressures - The rising interest rates on government bonds are expected to lead to an increase in the budget for debt servicing, with the Ministry planning to allocate 32.3865 trillion yen (approximately 1.57 trillion RMB) for debt repayment in the 2026 budget, which is about 4 trillion yen higher than the original budget for 2025 [5][6]. - The increasing interest burden will further limit the flexibility of fiscal policy [5]. Group 6: Global Implications - The stability of the Japanese bond market has implications beyond its borders, as Japan is the world's largest creditor and the third-largest bond market [6]. - The normalization of interest rates in Japan will influence global capital flows and asset prices, making the coordination of policies between the Ministry of Finance and the central bank a focal point for market participants [6].

21世纪经济报道记者胡慧茵 另一方面，日本持续的通胀压力，增加了日本央行采取加息行动的可能性，也推高了债券收益率。与此 同时，海外投资情绪似乎也受到影响。有数据显示，7月海外投资者对10年期以上日本国债的净购买额 降至4800亿日元（约合33亿美元），仅为6月份购买额的三分之一。 日本长期国债收益率飙升还会持续多久？若日本国债继续承压，日本政府会出手干预吗？ 日债抛售压力何来？ 日本长期国债收益率在8月初曾短暂回落，之后持续飙升并达到历史高位。 "近几个月，日本债券市场遭遇需求大幅下降，无论是从收益率角度还是投标倍数来看，都是'灾难 性'的结果。"渣打中国财富管理部首席投资策略师王昕杰向21世纪经济报道记者表示，今年日本债券市 场的压力源于两方面因素，"首先，日本通胀上升且高于目标范围，拉升了债券收益率，特别是超长期 国债。其次，日本政府潜在的财政刺激，将给日本已经很高的杠杆率增加负担，也助推了长期国债收益 率提升。" 出于对日本财政状况和通胀持续的担忧，日本债市再陷抛售潮，长期国债收益率一度飙升至十年以来高 位。 8月21日，日本长期国债收益率集体飙涨。日本10年期国债收益率亦升至1.61%，为2008年1 ...

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan maintains its target interest rate at 0.5%, aligning with market expectations, marking the third consecutive meeting without changes [1] - Starting from the next fiscal year, the Bank of Japan will slow down the pace of bond purchase reductions, decreasing the monthly reduction from 400 billion yen to 200 billion yen [3] - The decision to reduce bond purchases was made with an 8 to 1 vote, with one member dissenting, advocating for maintaining the current reduction pace [3] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan's decision to slow down bond purchase reductions reflects concerns over rising long-term government bond yields and market stability [4] - A mid-term review of the reduction plan will take place in June 2026, with the Bank of Japan indicating readiness to respond quickly to rising long-term rates [4] - The central bank's normalization process is critical, especially given the impact of U.S. tariffs on Japan's export-dependent economy [7] Group 3 - Japan's core consumer inflation rate reached 3.5% in April, significantly exceeding the Bank of Japan's 2% target, driven by rising food prices and labor costs [8] - Long-term bond yields in Japan have reached their highest levels since issuance, prompting speculation about potential adjustments in issuance to calm investor fears [8] - The market is closely monitoring the Bank of Japan's communications for any hints regarding future interest rate hikes [8]