这还不算完，国际市场上，伦敦现货黄金8月5日就突破3380美元/盎司，创年内新高，COMEX期货更是一度摸到3400美元心理关口 。世界黄金协会的数据 更吓人：2025年二季度全球黄金需求总值飙升45%，达到1320亿美元，ETF持仓量突破4500亿美元，创历史新高 。 这波黄金牛市可不是偶然。首先得看看美联储的"脸色"。8月23日凌晨，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔会议上暗示可能提前降息，直接点燃市场热情—— 美股三大指数当天集体涨超1.5%，道指创历史新高，中概股指数也大涨3%。根据芝商所FedWatch工具，9月降息25个基点的概率从一周前的75%飙升到 91%，高盛更是预测今年会有三次降息，每次25个基点 。 不过，光靠美联储还不够。全球央行都在疯狂囤金！世界黄金协会6月的调查显示，95%的受访央行预计未来一年继续增持黄金，43%的央行计划自己增加 储备，中国央行已经连续9个月增持，持仓量突破2300吨 。这种"官方背书"让黄金成了避险硬通货，尤其是在全球贸易摩擦升级、地缘政治紧张的背景下 。 再看中概股这边，简直是"旱地拔葱"。8月5日纳斯达克中国金龙指数单日暴涨1.8%，华米科技更是飙升48%，年内 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a calming of tensions in the Israel-Iran conflict, leading to a drop in gold and oil prices, while US stocks opened higher [1][6]. - The US stock market saw all three major indices rise by over 1% [2]. - Chinese concept stocks experienced a broad increase, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising nearly 2.7% [3]. Group 2 - Gold prices fell significantly, with London gold futures dropping below $3,400 per ounce, a decline of over 1% and more than $70 in a single day [4]. - Oil prices also decreased, with WTI crude and US crude futures both falling by over 4%, while domestic crude futures dropped by more than 3% [5]. - The latest updates on the Israel-Iran conflict show a continued but easing tension, with both sides showing signs of a more conciliatory approach [6].

Core Insights - The "Golden Cup" asset allocation competition has highlighted the performance of participants amid global asset price volatility caused by the US "reciprocal tariff" policy, with the top three contestants achieving net value growths of 8.65%, 6.89%, and 5.34% respectively [1][2]. Group 1: Performance of Contestants - The first-place contestant "Breeze" demonstrated strong risk management with a net value growth of 8.65% and a maximum drawdown of only 2.36%, showcasing a balanced allocation across stocks, bonds, and alternative assets [2]. - The second-place contestant "Big Wind Small Waves" achieved a net value growth of 6.89% with a maximum drawdown of 0.85%, utilizing a high-elasticity mixed asset strategy that effectively captured market rebounds [2][4]. - The third-place contestant "Golden Perpetuity" focused on alternative assets, achieving a net value growth of 5.34% but faced a maximum drawdown of 4.67%, indicating a reliance on single asset classes like gold [3][4]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - "Big Wind Small Waves" employed a "top-down" investment approach, considering economic impacts from tariffs on asset classes, while also favoring a "bottom-up" strategy by selecting funds with stable long-term performance [4][7]. - "Golden Perpetuity" indicated that their strategy was influenced by market risks, including the "reciprocal tariff" policy, which they viewed as beneficial for their asset allocation [4][8]. Group 3: Evolution of Wealth Management - The competition has emphasized the need for buy-side advisory services to focus on client-centric wealth management, transitioning from a "product-driven" to a "client demand-driven" model [7][8]. - The integration of investment philosophy and client service is crucial for attracting specific client demographics, highlighting the importance of a clear investment ideology for advisors [5][6].

5月份上旬，美国证监会公布了海外机构一季度的美股持仓数据，7748家知名机构(管理资产超1亿美元的机构)合计持有美股约53.88万亿美元。 在关税政策冲击下，美股经历巨幅波动，在此背景下英伟达、苹果、微软等科技股均遭受不同程度减仓。 与此同时， 高毅、景林、高瓴等国内知名私募在美股持仓动向也随之曝光，值得注意的是，三大私募在一季度均以实际行动看好中国资产，整 体加仓中概股，减仓美股科技等。 本文首发于公众号"私募排排网"。 （点击↑↑ 上图查看专栏 ） 5月份在经历了关税冲击后，A股表现先扬后抑，月内三大指数集体反弹，沪指涨2.09%，深成指涨1.42%，创业板指涨2.32%。个股方面，剔除 今年新股后的5370只股票中，3847只股票上涨，32只收平，1491只股票下跌，上涨股票数量占比为72%。 在此背景下，5月份公募、私募基金行业也有多件大事发生！包括百亿私募部分美股持仓出炉、但斌业绩反弹，美股持仓曝光、公募新规正式发 布、险资集中设立私募入市等，本文将为大家一一盘点。 0 1 高毅、景林、高瓴美股持仓曝光！疯狂加仓中国资产！ 具体来看，高毅海外基金持有22只美股，持股市值达7.65亿美元。其中最新建仓 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the impact of U.S.-China tariff adjustments on various markets and assets, particularly focusing on the implications for the Chinese economy and U.S. financial markets. Core Points and Arguments - **Tariff Adjustments and Economic Implications** The U.S.-China tariff adjustments reflect a consensus on the unsustainability of high tariffs, with the U.S. needing to alleviate supply shocks to control inflation and extend tariff exemptions to replenish inventories, thereby buying time for negotiations [1][4] The recent tariff reduction has led to a decrease in the overall impact on China's GDP to about 1% and a potential reduction in corporate profit drag to around 5% [2][17] - **Market Reactions and Asset Performance** Following the tariff adjustments, assets such as Bitcoin, gold, and markets in the Eurozone and Japan have performed well, with India emerging as a strong alternative to Chinese assets [6][7] The performance of gold and the U.S. dollar has been volatile, suggesting a cautious approach to short-term trading strategies, with a recommendation for a dollar-cost averaging strategy instead [13] - **Global Economic Growth and Commodity Prices** Tariffs may hinder global growth, leading to commodity price fluctuations and affecting the credibility of the U.S. dollar, which in turn impacts market confidence [8] The risk of stagflation in the U.S. economy has been postponed but not eliminated, with high tariffs contributing to supply-side inflation pressures that prevent the Federal Reserve from lowering interest rates [9] - **Federal Reserve Interest Rate Expectations** Expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts are suppressed by high tariffs, but a reduction in tariffs could increase the likelihood of small rate cuts [10] Current U.S. inflation is around 4%, providing some room for potential rate cuts, although significant downward adjustments are not anticipated [10] - **U.S. Stock Market Performance** Earnings drag on U.S. stocks has lessened, with the anticipated impact now around 5%, supported by strong capital expenditures from leading tech companies [12] The Nasdaq's valuation has recovered to approximately 21 times earnings, with the S&P 500 potentially reaching 5,900 to 6,000 points if tariff negotiations progress positively [12] - **Long-term Economic Trends in China** China's economic cycle is characterized by prolonged downward pressure and significant price challenges, with a need for monetary and fiscal policy interventions over an average of five years following the peak of the financial real estate cycle [21][22] The adjustment in asset prices in China is expected to be deeper and last longer compared to other countries, with a notable shift in focus towards improving labor productivity and production efficiency [24][25] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Impact of Tariffs on Specific Industries** The high tariffs previously imposed on certain industries have led to a significant reduction in exports to the U.S., with companies having to adjust their supply chains and production strategies accordingly [40][42] The recovery of Chinese factories in exporting to the U.S. will depend on price adjustments and the transmission of tariff impacts [41] - **Investment Strategies and Market Sentiment** The sentiment in the market has been influenced by the recent tariff changes, with a noted shift in capital flows back to original markets rather than emerging markets like China [2][14] The government has planned to issue 2.1 trillion in bonds to address potential issues arising from private credit weakness, indicating a proactive approach to stabilize the economy [18] - **Sector-Specific Observations** Historical data suggests that sectors such as real estate and industrial materials tend to perform well when emerging from financial real estate cycles, providing a framework for investors to strategize [26] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the implications of U.S.-China tariff adjustments on various economic and market dynamics.

智通财经APP获悉，中美贸易谈判初现曙光，摩根士丹利表示，出于对贸易谈判取得进展的乐观预期， 对冲基金，尤其是美国对冲基金，加大了对中国股票的多头押注。 该行在上周五发布的报告中指出，看到贸易协议有望达成的积极信号后，美国对冲基金通过增持在美上 市的中概股和国内A股，重新"拥抱"中国市场。 与此同时，该行称，对冲基金在泰国、中国香港、印度和澳大利亚等亚洲多数地区减持了头寸。 中美官员结束为期两天的日内瓦谈判后，双方表态积极。谈判前，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普释放缓和贸 易紧张局势的信号，称对中国商品征收80%的关税"似乎合理"，这是他对中国进口商品加征145%关税 后，首次提出具体的降税目标。 特朗普宣布加征关税后的那一周，中国股市曾一度大幅下跌，但随后开始回升。目前，沪深300指数和 香港恒生指数已基本回到特朗普宣布全面加征关税时(4月2日)的水平。 摩根士丹利补充道，对冲基金在中国市场的风险敞口仍远低于峰值水平。 "我们并不能准确预测中国市场走向。但在某个时点，其风险回报极具吸引力。"戴尔提到，全球投资者 对中国股市的持仓处于极低水平，且中国股票估值偏低。 中美两国周末在瑞士日内瓦展开关键贸易谈判。而在谈判前 ...