本文约4300字 阅读完约8分钟采访策划：何颖 采 写：金融投资报记者 吉雪娇 继2024年底时隔十四年再度重提"实施适度宽松的货币政策"后，2025年底中央经济工作会议又一次提 及"继续实施适度宽松的货币政策"，且在具体表述上用"灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具"取代 了"适时降准降息"。与此同时，日前召开的中国人民银行货币政策委员会第四季度例会（以下简称"四 季度例会"）提出，要发挥增量政策与存量政策的集成效应，综合运用多种工具加强货币政策调控，依 据国内外经济金融形势以及金融市场运行状况，精准把握政策实施的力度、节奏和时机。在此背景下， 2026年货币政策走向成为市场关注焦点。 金融投资报记者就此专访了中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛，围绕2025年货币政策操作情况、2026年货 币政策走向以及相关政策产生的影响等问题展开了深入交流。 管涛 记者提问 近期，中央经济工作会议再次强调"继续实施适度宽松的货币政策"，但在具体表述中用了"灵活高效运 用降准降息等多种政策工具"。您如何理解"灵活高效"这一新提法背后的政策信号？ 管涛：本次会议将"适时降准降息，保持流动性充裕"替换成"灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of "quality improvement and efficiency enhancement" in the economic work for the upcoming year, indicating a shift towards higher standards for development quality and effectiveness while maintaining reasonable economic growth [2][4] - The 2026 macroeconomic policy is expected to be more forward-looking, aiming to lay a foundation for high-quality development over the next five years [2] - The meeting highlighted the need for coordinated policies across fiscal, monetary, and industrial sectors, combining traditional and innovative tools to promote high-quality economic growth [4] Group 2 - The central economic work meeting proposed to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, with a focus on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery [5] - It is anticipated that in 2026, deposit rates and policy rates will further decline, with the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) expected to stabilize or decrease slightly, emphasizing the use of structural monetary policy tools to direct financial resources towards technology innovation, green development, and boosting consumption [5][7] - The meeting stressed the importance of policy coordination, integrating both stock and incremental policies to enhance the consistency and effectiveness of macroeconomic policies [8][10]

Group 1 - The central economic work conference emphasized the policy direction of "seeking progress while maintaining stability" and "improving quality and efficiency" for the upcoming year, indicating a higher demand for development quality and effectiveness alongside reasonable economic growth [2][3] - The conference highlighted the need for fiscal, monetary, and industrial policies to work in coordination, combining traditional and innovative tools to promote high-quality economic growth [2][3] Group 2 - The conference proposed to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, with a focus on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery, while also flexibly utilizing various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions [3][4] - Experts predict that in 2026, deposit rates and policy rates will further decline, with the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) expected to stabilize or decrease slightly, emphasizing the role of structural monetary policy tools to direct financial resources towards technology innovation, green development, and boosting consumption [3][4] - The conference stressed the importance of policy coordination, integrating both stock and incremental policies to enhance the consistency and effectiveness of macroeconomic policies, with a focus on counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments [4]

Core Insights - The "924" policy has marked a significant shift in China's economic policy from "prudent" to "moderately loose" [1][6] - The implementation of the "924" policy has not only provided a series of incremental policies for short-term growth stabilization but also reflects a change in economic policy thinking [2][7] - New incremental policies are expected to be more targeted, addressing unresolved issues from previous policies [4][10] Policy Overview - The "924" policy, initiated on September 24, 2024, included measures such as reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate reductions, debt management, and innovative monetary policy tools aimed at stabilizing growth, promoting consumption, and supporting the real estate and stock markets [2][5] - The macroeconomic policy direction has shifted, with a focus on repairing balance sheets across various sectors and alleviating the pains of economic transition [3][8] Economic Impact - Following the "924" policy, the Shanghai Composite Index rose over 1000 points, indicating positive market sentiment and recovery in consumption and investment [2][4] - By the end of 2024, GDP growth rebounded to 5.4% in the fourth quarter, supported by increased retail sales and fixed asset investment [6][7] Future Considerations - As of late 2025, economic indicators show signs of slowing growth, prompting speculation about the introduction of a new round of "924" policies [10][11] - Experts suggest that future policies should focus on targeted interventions to address ongoing challenges in the real estate market and enhance coordination between monetary and fiscal policies [4][12] - Recommendations for future policies include expanding service consumption subsidies, reinitiating policy financial tools for local projects, and fully lifting purchase restrictions in first-tier cities [11][12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of coordinated efforts across various sectors to achieve high-quality economic and social development [1][4] - The concept of a "policy combination" is highlighted as essential for effective governance, requiring strategic prioritization and interconnectivity among policies [3][5] - The need for a systematic approach to policy-making is stressed, ensuring that policies are aligned and mutually reinforcing to avoid conflicting outcomes [2][4] Group 2 - The current economic environment is described as complex, necessitating a focus on optimizing resource allocation and maintaining stable growth through coordinated policies [4][5] - Recent policy measures aimed at stabilizing employment, boosting consumption, and promoting effective investment are noted as critical for supporting economic health and social stability [4][5] - The importance of enhancing policy evaluation mechanisms to ensure alignment and effectiveness in achieving high-quality development goals is underscored [5]