（来源：求是网） 2026年是"十五五"开局之年，开好局、起好步至关重要。政策支持的关键在于通过实施更加积极有 为的宏观政策，坚持稳中求进、提质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调 节力度，提升宏观经济治理效能。 把握2026年政策支持的着力点，一个重要方面就是"提质增效"。然而，由于客观形势的变化、政策 理解的差异、政策之间协同不到位等情况，宏观政策在实施过程中会出现偏差，导致政策效果不及预 期。一方面，部门或地方在各自合理的前提下实施政策，但叠加后最终未能达成整体最优甚至出现政策 之间相互抵牾的情况。另一方面，虽然制定了科学合理的宏观政策目标，但在向部门或地方层面分解过 程中，不能有效转化为可执行的具体行动，从而导致宏观政策目标在微观层面无法有效落实。防范和化 解这些政策偏差，关键是要深刻领会和落实中央经济工作会议强调的"提质增效"要求，进一步强化系统 观念，增强宏观政策取向一致性，提升政策的前瞻性针对性协同性。 实际上，从2022年以来，国务院各部门出台文件凡涉及宏观经济稳定和市场预期稳定的，都要由国 家发展改革委开展宏观政策取向一致性评估。实践中，要用好宏观政策一致性评估工作机制 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Policy Overview - The macroeconomic policy is crucial for maintaining stable economic operations and advancing high-quality development in China [1] - In 2025, China will implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy for the first time in 14 years, which will significantly support economic recovery [1] - The 2026 macroeconomic policy will focus on stability and progress, enhancing quality and efficiency while integrating existing and new policies [1] Group 2: Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy in 2025 will increase the deficit ratio, issue larger government bonds, and enhance transfer payments to local governments to support growth and risk prevention [2] - There is a need to address local fiscal difficulties by establishing mechanisms for increasing revenue and reducing expenditure, ensuring the sustainability of fiscal policies [2] - The national public budget expenditure is projected to reach 29.7 trillion yuan in 2025, with 10.3 trillion yuan allocated for transfers to local governments [3] Group 3: Monetary Policy - The monetary policy in 2025 will include timely reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates, providing a favorable financial environment for economic recovery [4] - The emphasis will be on maintaining liquidity and promoting low financing costs while addressing structural economic issues through targeted monetary tools [4] - A diverse toolbox of monetary policy instruments will be utilized to balance short-term and long-term goals, supporting the real economy while ensuring financial system health [4] Group 4: Policy Coordination and Effectiveness - The effectiveness of macroeconomic policies relies on precise implementation and coordination between fiscal and monetary policies, as well as between various reform measures [5][6] - There is a need to enhance the consistency and effectiveness of macroeconomic policies to avoid conflicts and ensure that policies work synergistically [5][6] - Strengthening the management of expectations and improving communication about economic policies will be essential for boosting social confidence [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is expected to perform better than anticipated in 2025, with a projected total economic output of around 140 trillion yuan, and policies will be implemented in 2026 to further stimulate growth based on changing circumstances [2][5][17]. Economic Performance - The year 2023 is highlighted as significant for China's modernization, with major economic indicators exceeding expectations, and a projected growth rate of around 5% [4][5]. - China's economic resilience is demonstrated through stable employment, rapid growth in foreign trade, and advancements in modern industrial systems, particularly in AI, biomedicine, and robotics [4][5]. Policy Measures - In 2024, the government will implement incremental policies alongside existing measures to enhance economic stability and growth [6][7]. - A proactive fiscal policy will be maintained, with a focus on sustainable financial practices and enhancing local fiscal capabilities [8][9]. Five Musts for Economic Work - The government emphasizes five essential strategies for economic work: 1. Fully explore economic potential by expanding consumption and investment [11]. 2. Combine policy support with reform innovation to address intertwined economic issues [11]. 3. Balance deregulation with effective management to enhance productivity [11]. 4. Invest in both physical and human capital to promote comprehensive development [12]. 5. Strengthen internal capabilities to face external challenges [13]. Trade and Open Economy - The government plans to deepen the construction of a unified national market and address issues like corporate debt [15]. - There will be a focus on expanding both exports and imports to promote sustainable foreign trade development [15]. Income and Consumption - The government aims to synchronize income growth with economic growth, with initiatives to boost consumer spending and enhance the quality of goods and services [17]. - Policies will be implemented to support flexible employment and improve job quality for key demographics [17]. Green Development - Green development is identified as a cornerstone of high-quality growth, with plans to advance energy construction and carbon emission controls [18].

Group 1 - The central economic work conference emphasized the policy direction of "seeking progress while maintaining stability" and "improving quality and efficiency" for the upcoming year, indicating a higher demand for development quality and effectiveness alongside reasonable economic growth [2][3] - The conference highlighted the need for fiscal, monetary, and industrial policies to work in coordination, combining traditional and innovative tools to promote high-quality economic growth [2][3] Group 2 - The conference proposed to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, with a focus on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery, while also flexibly utilizing various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions [3][4] - Experts predict that in 2026, deposit rates and policy rates will further decline, with the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) expected to stabilize or decrease slightly, emphasizing the role of structural monetary policy tools to direct financial resources towards technology innovation, green development, and boosting consumption [3][4] - The conference stressed the importance of policy coordination, integrating both stock and incremental policies to enhance the consistency and effectiveness of macroeconomic policies, with a focus on counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments [4]

【导读】2026年经济工作定调，专家解读中央经济工作会议 中国基金报记者 张玲 任子青 据新华社报道，中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行，总结2025年经济工作，分 析当前经济形势，部署2026年经济工作。 受访专家表示，会议对今年以及整个"十四五"时期我国经济表现和政策效果给予肯定，提出 明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进。在宏观政策、扩大内需、新质生产力等多重驱动下，明年我 国经济将实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长，实现"十五五"良好开局。 我国经济顶压前行、向新向优发展 会议指出，今年是很不平凡的一年。我国经济顶压前行、向新向优发展，现代化产业体系建 设持续推进，改革开放迈出新步伐，重点领域风险化解取得积极进展，民生保障更加有力。 中信证券首席经济学家明明表示，会议首先对今年以及整个"十四五"时期我国经济表现和政 策效果予以了肯定。尽管面临多重压力，但我国经济顶压前行、向新向优发展，"十四五"即 将圆满收官，第二个百年奋斗目标新征程实现良好开局。 会议还指出，必须以苦练内功来应对外部挑战。明明认为，这既体现了直面外部冲击与挑战 的"实事求是"的态度，又展现出"以我为主"的大国自信。在"十五五"时期，我 ...

董希淼认为，这意味着未来各部门、各地区、各领域的政策将更注重协调配合，形成合力。 12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。此次会议部署2026年经济工作，在部署明年货币政策 时，会议称，要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，并提出"灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具"。 明明分析，2026年作为"十五五"起步之年，将在更积极的宏观政策组合和更前瞻性的结构改革推动下实 现经济的稳健开局，为迈向2035年现代化远景奠定坚实基础。 具体而言，会议提出，要把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量。灵活高效运用 降准降息等多种政策工具，保持流动性充裕，畅通货币政策传导机制，引导金融机构加力支持扩大内 需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域。 （文章来源：第一财经） 招联首席研究员董希淼认为，从货币政策看，为继续保持适度宽松的基调，并配合财政政策发力，预计 2026年存款利率和政策利率将进一步下降，可能实施降准降息一至两次，并且更加注重发挥结构性货币 政策工具作用，引导金融资源更多流向科技创新、绿色发展、提振消费。但货币政策不会"大水漫灌"， 将注重把握和处理好短期与长期、稳增长与防风险、内部与外部三方面的关 ...

Core Insights - The development of the digital economy is reshaping production and lifestyle, posing challenges to the existing tax system and necessitating a reevaluation of global tax governance in the context of digitalization [2][3]. Group 1: Current Landscape of Global Tax Governance - The global tax governance landscape is facing significant challenges due to geopolitical tensions and the impact of the digital economy, with the G20's "two-pillar" solution representing a collaborative effort to address these issues [3][4]. - The "two-pillar" framework aims to redistribute profits of multinational enterprises and establish a global minimum tax to curb tax avoidance, fundamentally altering traditional international tax rules [4][5]. Group 2: Negotiation Challenges - The negotiations surrounding the second phase of the BEPS initiative (BEPS 2.0) are encountering difficulties, with key issues stalling progress and some topics regressing [5][6]. - The U.S. government's opposition to certain aspects of the global minimum tax and its insistence on abolishing unilateral digital service taxes complicate the negotiation landscape [6][7]. Group 3: Implications for China - Over 55 countries are implementing or planning to implement the global minimum tax, with China actively participating in the BEPS process and contributing to the establishment of international tax principles [8][9]. - Chinese enterprises, especially those expanding internationally, need to enhance their awareness of global tax governance changes and prepare for compliance with evolving international tax rules [9].

Group 1: Core Views - The importance of scientific macro-control and effective government governance is emphasized as an inherent requirement to leverage the advantages of the socialist market economy system [1][2] - The need to enhance the macroeconomic governance system is highlighted as a strategic arrangement to address deep-seated issues in economic operations [1][2] Group 2: Macroeconomic Governance System - A well-coordinated macroeconomic governance system is essential for stabilizing the economy and promoting high-quality development [2][3] - The relationship between government and market must be properly managed to improve macroeconomic governance efficiency [5][6] Group 3: Effective Market and Government - The concept of "effective market" is defined by its ability to reflect the scarcity of production factors through price signals, drive innovation through competition, and achieve optimal resource allocation [3][4] - The "active government" role is described as necessary for strategic guidance, scientific regulation, and risk prevention, complementing market functions [3][4] Group 4: Historical Context of Economic Reform - Since the reform and opening up, China has transitioned from a centrally planned economy to a vibrant socialist market economy, with a focus on the market's decisive role under macro-control [4][5] - The evolution of the understanding of the government-market relationship has been a continuous process, with significant milestones outlined in various party congresses [4] Group 5: Macro-Control System Improvement - The macro-control system is crucial for ensuring stable economic operations and must be continuously improved to respond to internal and external risks [7][8] - Key areas for improvement include enhancing national strategic planning, promoting regional coordinated development, and fostering innovation and industrial upgrading [8] Group 6: Fiscal and Financial Policy Reforms - Fiscal and financial policies are vital tools for connecting government macro-control with micro-resource allocation, and reforms in these areas are necessary for enhancing governance efficiency [9][10] - Specific reforms include optimizing the fiscal resource allocation, improving tax systems, and clarifying the fiscal relationship between central and local governments [10][11] Group 7: Consistency in Macro Policy Orientation - The need for consistent macro policy orientation is emphasized as a practical measure to promote high-quality development amid complex domestic and international challenges [13][14] - A systematic approach to policy coordination is necessary to ensure that economic policies align with actual development needs [15]

Core Views - The article emphasizes the importance of a sound macroeconomic governance system and effective government management as intrinsic requirements for leveraging the advantages of the socialist market economy system [1][2][3] Macroeconomic Governance System - The governance system should be closely coordinated with policies on employment, industry, investment, consumption, environmental protection, and regional development to ensure high-quality and sustainable economic growth [1][2] - The central government has made significant innovations in macroeconomic regulation theory and practice, focusing on expanding domestic demand and enhancing the foundational role of consumption in economic development [1][2] Government and Market Relationship - The relationship between an effective market and a proactive government is a core issue in China's economic reform, with the need for the market to play a decisive role in resource allocation while the government addresses market failures [3][4] - The article outlines the evolution of the understanding of the government-market relationship, highlighting the shift from a focus on the market's basic role to its decisive role in resource allocation [4] Enhancing Governance Efficiency - Improving the macroeconomic governance system requires precise delineation of government and market responsibilities, modernization of government governance capabilities, and the establishment of a collaborative mechanism to reflect market demands [5][6] - The article stresses the need for a comprehensive macro-control system that can flexibly respond to internal and external economic risks, ensuring the stability of economic operations [7][8] Fiscal and Financial Policy Reforms - Fiscal and financial policies are crucial tools for connecting government macro-control with micro resource allocation, and reforms in these areas are essential for enhancing macroeconomic governance efficiency [9][10] - The article suggests focusing on improving fiscal resource management, optimizing the tax system, and clarifying the fiscal relationship between central and local governments to ensure sustainable fiscal operations [10][11] Consistency in Macroeconomic Policies - The need for consistent macroeconomic policy orientation is highlighted as a practical measure for promoting high-quality development, especially in the face of external uncertainties and domestic economic pressures [13][14] - The article advocates for a systematic approach to policy coordination, ensuring that economic policies align with actual development needs and are effectively communicated to stakeholders [15][16]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) released the monetary policy implementation report for Q3 2025, highlighting the challenges posed by external uncertainties and the need for stronger domestic economic recovery [1] Group 1: Economic Environment - The global economic landscape is facing significant challenges, with insufficient growth momentum and a divided performance among major economies [1] - China's economy continues to encounter risks and challenges, necessitating efforts to solidify the foundation for domestic economic recovery [1] Group 2: Policy Direction - The PBOC emphasizes the importance of maintaining strategic determination and confidence in achieving breakthroughs in tasks related to Chinese-style modernization [1] - Future monetary policy will be guided by Xi Jinping's thoughts on socialism with Chinese characteristics for a new era, focusing on the implementation of the 20th National Congress and other key meetings [1] Group 3: Financial Strategy - The PBOC aims to deepen financial reform and promote high-level opening-up, striving to build a strong financial nation and improve the central bank's system [1] - A comprehensive monetary policy framework and macro-prudential management system will be established to enhance the transmission mechanism of monetary policy [1] Group 4: Balancing Objectives - The PBOC will balance short-term and long-term goals, growth support and risk prevention, as well as internal and external equilibrium [1] - Emphasis will be placed on consistent macro policy orientation and effective governance to sustain growth, employment, and expectations [1]