宏观政策是我国经济保持平稳运行、迈向高质量发展的重要保障。2025年我国首次实施更加积极的财政政策，时 隔14年再次实施适度宽松的货币政策，为推动经济持续回升向好发挥了重要作用。根据中央经济工作会议部署，2026 年宏观政策取向上要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效 应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，切实提升宏观经济治理效能。 更加积极的财政政策要精准增效。 宏观政策贵在精准有效。要着力畅通货币政策传导机制，做优增量、盘活存量，统筹做好金融"五篇大文章"，加 力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域，提升金融服务实体经济的质效。 同时，面对日益复杂严峻的外部形势，要继续平衡好内外部关系，坚持市场在汇率形成中的决定性作用，强化预 期引导，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。 更大力度支持"两重"项目，加力扩围实施"两新"政策，大幅增加基础研究投入，充实稳就业政策工具……2025 年，财政政策提高赤字率、安排更大规模政府债券，增加对地方转移支付，推动地方落实隐性债务置换政策，为稳增 长、调结构、防风险提供了有力支撑。2026年，要保持必要的财政赤字、债务 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is expected to perform better than anticipated in 2025, with a projected total economic output of around 140 trillion yuan, and policies will be implemented in 2026 to further stimulate growth based on changing circumstances [2][5][17]. Economic Performance - The year 2023 is highlighted as significant for China's modernization, with major economic indicators exceeding expectations, and a projected growth rate of around 5% [4][5]. - China's economic resilience is demonstrated through stable employment, rapid growth in foreign trade, and advancements in modern industrial systems, particularly in AI, biomedicine, and robotics [4][5]. Policy Measures - In 2024, the government will implement incremental policies alongside existing measures to enhance economic stability and growth [6][7]. - A proactive fiscal policy will be maintained, with a focus on sustainable financial practices and enhancing local fiscal capabilities [8][9]. Five Musts for Economic Work - The government emphasizes five essential strategies for economic work: 1. Fully explore economic potential by expanding consumption and investment [11]. 2. Combine policy support with reform innovation to address intertwined economic issues [11]. 3. Balance deregulation with effective management to enhance productivity [11]. 4. Invest in both physical and human capital to promote comprehensive development [12]. 5. Strengthen internal capabilities to face external challenges [13]. Trade and Open Economy - The government plans to deepen the construction of a unified national market and address issues like corporate debt [15]. - There will be a focus on expanding both exports and imports to promote sustainable foreign trade development [15]. Income and Consumption - The government aims to synchronize income growth with economic growth, with initiatives to boost consumer spending and enhance the quality of goods and services [17]. - Policies will be implemented to support flexible employment and improve job quality for key demographics [17]. Green Development - Green development is identified as a cornerstone of high-quality growth, with plans to advance energy construction and carbon emission controls [18].

Group 1 - The central economic work conference emphasized the policy direction of "seeking progress while maintaining stability" and "improving quality and efficiency" for the upcoming year, indicating a higher demand for development quality and effectiveness alongside reasonable economic growth [2][3] - The conference highlighted the need for fiscal, monetary, and industrial policies to work in coordination, combining traditional and innovative tools to promote high-quality economic growth [2][3] Group 2 - The conference proposed to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, with a focus on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery, while also flexibly utilizing various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions [3][4] - Experts predict that in 2026, deposit rates and policy rates will further decline, with the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) expected to stabilize or decrease slightly, emphasizing the role of structural monetary policy tools to direct financial resources towards technology innovation, green development, and boosting consumption [3][4] - The conference stressed the importance of policy coordination, integrating both stock and incremental policies to enhance the consistency and effectiveness of macroeconomic policies, with a focus on counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments [4]

【导读】2026年经济工作定调，专家解读中央经济工作会议 中国基金报记者 张玲 任子青 据新华社报道，中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行，总结2025年经济工作，分 析当前经济形势，部署2026年经济工作。 受访专家表示，会议对今年以及整个"十四五"时期我国经济表现和政策效果给予肯定，提出 明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进。在宏观政策、扩大内需、新质生产力等多重驱动下，明年我 国经济将实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长，实现"十五五"良好开局。 我国经济顶压前行、向新向优发展 会议指出，今年是很不平凡的一年。我国经济顶压前行、向新向优发展，现代化产业体系建 设持续推进，改革开放迈出新步伐，重点领域风险化解取得积极进展，民生保障更加有力。 中信证券首席经济学家明明表示，会议首先对今年以及整个"十四五"时期我国经济表现和政 策效果予以了肯定。尽管面临多重压力，但我国经济顶压前行、向新向优发展，"十四五"即 将圆满收官，第二个百年奋斗目标新征程实现良好开局。 会议还指出，必须以苦练内功来应对外部挑战。明明认为，这既体现了直面外部冲击与挑战 的"实事求是"的态度，又展现出"以我为主"的大国自信。在"十五五"时期，我 ...

董希淼认为，这意味着未来各部门、各地区、各领域的政策将更注重协调配合，形成合力。 12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。此次会议部署2026年经济工作，在部署明年货币政策 时，会议称，要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，并提出"灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具"。 明明分析，2026年作为"十五五"起步之年，将在更积极的宏观政策组合和更前瞻性的结构改革推动下实 现经济的稳健开局，为迈向2035年现代化远景奠定坚实基础。 具体而言，会议提出，要把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量。灵活高效运用 降准降息等多种政策工具，保持流动性充裕，畅通货币政策传导机制，引导金融机构加力支持扩大内 需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域。 （文章来源：第一财经） 招联首席研究员董希淼认为，从货币政策看，为继续保持适度宽松的基调，并配合财政政策发力，预计 2026年存款利率和政策利率将进一步下降，可能实施降准降息一至两次，并且更加注重发挥结构性货币 政策工具作用，引导金融资源更多流向科技创新、绿色发展、提振消费。但货币政策不会"大水漫灌"， 将注重把握和处理好短期与长期、稳增长与防风险、内部与外部三方面的关 ...

Core Insights - The development of the digital economy is reshaping production and lifestyle, posing challenges to the existing tax system and necessitating a reevaluation of global tax governance in the context of digitalization [2][3]. Group 1: Current Landscape of Global Tax Governance - The global tax governance landscape is facing significant challenges due to geopolitical tensions and the impact of the digital economy, with the G20's "two-pillar" solution representing a collaborative effort to address these issues [3][4]. - The "two-pillar" framework aims to redistribute profits of multinational enterprises and establish a global minimum tax to curb tax avoidance, fundamentally altering traditional international tax rules [4][5]. Group 2: Negotiation Challenges - The negotiations surrounding the second phase of the BEPS initiative (BEPS 2.0) are encountering difficulties, with key issues stalling progress and some topics regressing [5][6]. - The U.S. government's opposition to certain aspects of the global minimum tax and its insistence on abolishing unilateral digital service taxes complicate the negotiation landscape [6][7]. Group 3: Implications for China - Over 55 countries are implementing or planning to implement the global minimum tax, with China actively participating in the BEPS process and contributing to the establishment of international tax principles [8][9]. - Chinese enterprises, especially those expanding internationally, need to enhance their awareness of global tax governance changes and prepare for compliance with evolving international tax rules [9].

Group 1: Core Views - The importance of scientific macro-control and effective government governance is emphasized as an inherent requirement to leverage the advantages of the socialist market economy system [1][2] - The need to enhance the macroeconomic governance system is highlighted as a strategic arrangement to address deep-seated issues in economic operations [1][2] Group 2: Macroeconomic Governance System - A well-coordinated macroeconomic governance system is essential for stabilizing the economy and promoting high-quality development [2][3] - The relationship between government and market must be properly managed to improve macroeconomic governance efficiency [5][6] Group 3: Effective Market and Government - The concept of "effective market" is defined by its ability to reflect the scarcity of production factors through price signals, drive innovation through competition, and achieve optimal resource allocation [3][4] - The "active government" role is described as necessary for strategic guidance, scientific regulation, and risk prevention, complementing market functions [3][4] Group 4: Historical Context of Economic Reform - Since the reform and opening up, China has transitioned from a centrally planned economy to a vibrant socialist market economy, with a focus on the market's decisive role under macro-control [4][5] - The evolution of the understanding of the government-market relationship has been a continuous process, with significant milestones outlined in various party congresses [4] Group 5: Macro-Control System Improvement - The macro-control system is crucial for ensuring stable economic operations and must be continuously improved to respond to internal and external risks [7][8] - Key areas for improvement include enhancing national strategic planning, promoting regional coordinated development, and fostering innovation and industrial upgrading [8] Group 6: Fiscal and Financial Policy Reforms - Fiscal and financial policies are vital tools for connecting government macro-control with micro-resource allocation, and reforms in these areas are necessary for enhancing governance efficiency [9][10] - Specific reforms include optimizing the fiscal resource allocation, improving tax systems, and clarifying the fiscal relationship between central and local governments [10][11] Group 7: Consistency in Macro Policy Orientation - The need for consistent macro policy orientation is emphasized as a practical measure to promote high-quality development amid complex domestic and international challenges [13][14] - A systematic approach to policy coordination is necessary to ensure that economic policies align with actual development needs [15]

Core Views - The article emphasizes the importance of a sound macroeconomic governance system and effective government management as intrinsic requirements for leveraging the advantages of the socialist market economy system [1][2][3] Macroeconomic Governance System - The governance system should be closely coordinated with policies on employment, industry, investment, consumption, environmental protection, and regional development to ensure high-quality and sustainable economic growth [1][2] - The central government has made significant innovations in macroeconomic regulation theory and practice, focusing on expanding domestic demand and enhancing the foundational role of consumption in economic development [1][2] Government and Market Relationship - The relationship between an effective market and a proactive government is a core issue in China's economic reform, with the need for the market to play a decisive role in resource allocation while the government addresses market failures [3][4] - The article outlines the evolution of the understanding of the government-market relationship, highlighting the shift from a focus on the market's basic role to its decisive role in resource allocation [4] Enhancing Governance Efficiency - Improving the macroeconomic governance system requires precise delineation of government and market responsibilities, modernization of government governance capabilities, and the establishment of a collaborative mechanism to reflect market demands [5][6] - The article stresses the need for a comprehensive macro-control system that can flexibly respond to internal and external economic risks, ensuring the stability of economic operations [7][8] Fiscal and Financial Policy Reforms - Fiscal and financial policies are crucial tools for connecting government macro-control with micro resource allocation, and reforms in these areas are essential for enhancing macroeconomic governance efficiency [9][10] - The article suggests focusing on improving fiscal resource management, optimizing the tax system, and clarifying the fiscal relationship between central and local governments to ensure sustainable fiscal operations [10][11] Consistency in Macroeconomic Policies - The need for consistent macroeconomic policy orientation is highlighted as a practical measure for promoting high-quality development, especially in the face of external uncertainties and domestic economic pressures [13][14] - The article advocates for a systematic approach to policy coordination, ensuring that economic policies align with actual development needs and are effectively communicated to stakeholders [15][16]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) released the monetary policy implementation report for Q3 2025, highlighting the challenges posed by external uncertainties and the need for stronger domestic economic recovery [1] Group 1: Economic Environment - The global economic landscape is facing significant challenges, with insufficient growth momentum and a divided performance among major economies [1] - China's economy continues to encounter risks and challenges, necessitating efforts to solidify the foundation for domestic economic recovery [1] Group 2: Policy Direction - The PBOC emphasizes the importance of maintaining strategic determination and confidence in achieving breakthroughs in tasks related to Chinese-style modernization [1] - Future monetary policy will be guided by Xi Jinping's thoughts on socialism with Chinese characteristics for a new era, focusing on the implementation of the 20th National Congress and other key meetings [1] Group 3: Financial Strategy - The PBOC aims to deepen financial reform and promote high-level opening-up, striving to build a strong financial nation and improve the central bank's system [1] - A comprehensive monetary policy framework and macro-prudential management system will be established to enhance the transmission mechanism of monetary policy [1] Group 4: Balancing Objectives - The PBOC will balance short-term and long-term goals, growth support and risk prevention, as well as internal and external equilibrium [1] - Emphasis will be placed on consistent macro policy orientation and effective governance to sustain growth, employment, and expectations [1]

Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic policies for future economic development in China [4] - There is a significant focus on activating idle assets, with state-owned administrative assets totaling 68.2 trillion yuan and net assets of 55.4 trillion yuan by the end of 2024 [3] - The plan encourages a collaborative approach between fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate domestic demand and consumption [10][13] Group 1: Macroeconomic Policy - The plan advocates for a more proactive macroeconomic policy, which will shape China's fiscal and financial strategies over the next five years [4] - The recent initiative in Anhui to manage "large assets" aims to activate idle government resources, potentially leading to new industries and job creation [6] Group 2: Economic Growth and Development - The focus on "digging potential" from existing assets suggests that there are untapped resources that could contribute to economic growth if effectively utilized [3] - The alignment of fiscal and monetary policies is intended to foster an economy driven by domestic demand, consumption, and endogenous growth [10][13] Group 3: Challenges and Opportunities - The next five years are expected to present both strategic opportunities and risks, but the underlying strengths of China's industrial system, market size, talent pool, and innovation capacity provide a solid foundation for long-term economic development [15]