Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are under pressure, fluctuating below $4200, with limited upward momentum despite a lack of strong bearish sentiment. Improved market risk appetite and a modest recovery of the dollar have weakened gold's safe-haven support, although expectations for monetary easing provide some support for gold prices [1][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Recent economic data has reinforced expectations for monetary easing, with November private sector employment unexpectedly decreasing by 32,000, contrasting sharply with previous growth. This has led the market to anticipate a 25 basis point cut in policy rates next week [3]. - The low interest rate environment enhances the relative attractiveness of non-yielding assets like gold, and with limited dollar rebound, gold's medium-term support structure remains relatively solid [3]. - Investor caution due to external uncertainties has limited deep corrections in gold prices, with market focus shifting to the upcoming PCE price index to gauge future policy direction [3]. Group 2: Trading Dynamics - Weekly jobless claims and corporate layoff data are expected to provide short-term volatility, but their impact is deemed limited. The overall market focus remains on inflation resilience and policy pace [3]. - In a positive stock market environment, safe-haven demand for gold remains weak, causing prices to hover within a narrow range during Asian and European trading sessions [3]. - The market is likely to remain in a consolidation phase, with limited movement unless significant events occur [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Gold prices have repeatedly faced resistance in the $4245–$4250 range, indicating this level remains a significant upper barrier. If prices continue to decline, the $4164–$4163 weekly low area is expected to serve as initial key support [4]. - A break below this support could test the psychological $4100 level and the important technical convergence area around $4085, which is supported by the 200-period EMA on the 4-hour chart and the upward trend line since October [4]. - Conversely, if gold prices break above $4250 and stabilize in the $4277–$4278 range, there is potential for a renewed challenge of the $4300 level, laying the groundwork for further upward movement [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report discusses whether the economic performance in the first half of the year will influence the policy intensity in the second half, with a GDP growth of 5.3% exceeding the annual target of 5.0% by 0.3 percentage points [2][7] - The report highlights that the policy response may not solely depend on achieving the annual target but also on marginal changes in economic conditions, suggesting a dynamic observation of trends [4][19] - Historical analysis shows that years with GDP exceeding targets have led to varied interest rate movements in the second half, indicating that internal economic momentum and external disturbances play significant roles in policy decisions [3][5][9] Group 2 - The report identifies three typical scenarios for the second half following a strong first half: 1) Continued strong economic performance leading to policy tightening and rising interest rates; 2) External shocks prompting monetary easing and falling interest rates; 3) Weakening internal momentum resulting in cautious policy adjustments [3][18] - It emphasizes that even with a strong first half, if high-frequency data shows weakening in the latter part of the year, there is a possibility of policy measures being reintroduced to support growth [5][22] - The report notes that the current policy framework is increasingly responsive to marginal changes rather than being strictly anchored to annual targets, reflecting a shift in policy-making dynamics [4][19][20]

Economic Growth - The nominal GDP growth rate for Q1 2025 is 5.4% year-on-year, unchanged from Q4 2024, while the current price GDP growth rate slightly decreased to 4.59% from 4.62%[14] - The CPI average fell to -0.10% in March 2025, while the PPI average rose to -2.33%[14] Employment and Income - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in Q1 2025 increased to 5.27%, compared to 5.03% in Q4 2024[17] - Per capita disposable income grew by 5.6% year-on-year in Q1 2025, up from 5.1% in 2024[17] Consumer Spending - The total retail sales of consumer goods in Q1 2025 increased by 4.6% year-on-year, compared to 3.5% in 2024[24] - In March 2025, retail sales grew by 5.9% year-on-year, with significant increases in categories such as home appliances (35.1%) and furniture (29.5%) compared to previous months[27][28] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment in the first three months of 2025 rose by 4.2% year-on-year, with infrastructure investment increasing by 11.5%[5] - Real estate development investment decreased by 9.9%, accounting for 19.3% of total fixed asset investment[5] Industrial Production - The industrial added value in Q1 2025 grew by 6.5% year-on-year, with high-tech industries increasing by 9.7%[48] - In March 2025, the industrial added value rose by 7.7% year-on-year, with mining and manufacturing sectors showing strong growth[48] Investment Recommendations - The high growth rates in industrial output, particularly in high-tech sectors, alongside robust infrastructure and manufacturing investments, are seen as foundational strengths for the Chinese economy[54]

Group 1 - The overall market sentiment is better than expected despite the US tariff increases, indicating resilience in the A-share market [1] - Investors are advised to focus on companies with stable performance and core competitiveness, particularly in sectors with strong domestic demand [2] - The market is transitioning from focusing on expectations to emphasizing fundamental performance during the annual report season [2] Group 2 - There is a need to manage expectations regarding the pace of new policies, as the central government is maintaining a stable rhythm in policy deployment [3] - The focus should be on digesting previously announced policies to ensure their effectiveness in stabilizing the economy and capital markets [3] - Attention should be given to the synergistic effects of various policies, including fiscal, monetary, and industrial measures, to enhance overall policy effectiveness [3]