上半年经济成绩单是否影响下半年政策力度？ 本周，上半年经济成绩单揭晓，1-6 月实际 GDP 同比增长 5.3%，较全年 5.0%的目标高出 0.3 个百分点。这种局面下， 下半年的政策取向值得思考：若完成全年目标压力减轻，是否意味着下半年宏观政策会更趋稳健？这一判断不仅关系 到政策自身的发力节奏，也将直接影响债市表现。特别是在当下利率已处于历史偏低水平、政策预期对利率走势边际 影响显著的背景下，政策是否收敛、何时发力，成为影响下半年债市波动节奏的核心因素之一。 复盘："上半年超目标"的年份里，下半年利率走势差异不小。 2015 年以来，上半年 GDP 超出全年目标的年份包括 2015、2016、2017、2018 和 2023 年，超出幅度分别为 0.1、0.3、 0.5、0.4 和 0.7 个百分点。然而这些年份里，下半年利率走势却明显分化：2015 年利率大幅下行，2016 年先下后上， 2017 年明显上行，2018 和 2023 年震荡下行。这或意味着，相较于"上半年是否达成目标"，下半年经济本身的内在 动能状况、外部扰动强度等因素，往往在更大程度上决定了下半年政策的发力力度与市场运行节奏。从而导致 ...

Economic Growth - The nominal GDP growth rate for Q1 2025 is 5.4% year-on-year, unchanged from Q4 2024, while the current price GDP growth rate slightly decreased to 4.59% from 4.62%[14] - The CPI average fell to -0.10% in March 2025, while the PPI average rose to -2.33%[14] Employment and Income - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in Q1 2025 increased to 5.27%, compared to 5.03% in Q4 2024[17] - Per capita disposable income grew by 5.6% year-on-year in Q1 2025, up from 5.1% in 2024[17] Consumer Spending - The total retail sales of consumer goods in Q1 2025 increased by 4.6% year-on-year, compared to 3.5% in 2024[24] - In March 2025, retail sales grew by 5.9% year-on-year, with significant increases in categories such as home appliances (35.1%) and furniture (29.5%) compared to previous months[27][28] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment in the first three months of 2025 rose by 4.2% year-on-year, with infrastructure investment increasing by 11.5%[5] - Real estate development investment decreased by 9.9%, accounting for 19.3% of total fixed asset investment[5] Industrial Production - The industrial added value in Q1 2025 grew by 6.5% year-on-year, with high-tech industries increasing by 9.7%[48] - In March 2025, the industrial added value rose by 7.7% year-on-year, with mining and manufacturing sectors showing strong growth[48] Investment Recommendations - The high growth rates in industrial output, particularly in high-tech sectors, alongside robust infrastructure and manufacturing investments, are seen as foundational strengths for the Chinese economy[54]

Group 1 - The overall market sentiment is better than expected despite the US tariff increases, indicating resilience in the A-share market [1] - Investors are advised to focus on companies with stable performance and core competitiveness, particularly in sectors with strong domestic demand [2] - The market is transitioning from focusing on expectations to emphasizing fundamental performance during the annual report season [2] Group 2 - There is a need to manage expectations regarding the pace of new policies, as the central government is maintaining a stable rhythm in policy deployment [3] - The focus should be on digesting previously announced policies to ensure their effectiveness in stabilizing the economy and capital markets [3] - Attention should be given to the synergistic effects of various policies, including fiscal, monetary, and industrial measures, to enhance overall policy effectiveness [3]