新发展阶段

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研究立身、勇立潮头(申万宏观·赵伟团队)
申万宏源宏观· 2025-08-20 16:04
Core Viewpoint - The research process is iterative and requires continuous denial and reconstruction to approach the truth, emphasizing the importance of diligent and practical research in the investment banking sector [22]. Group 1 - The year 2025 is marked as a year of comprehensive upgrade for the research team, focusing on restructuring the research framework and systematically displaying research results [22]. - The new development phase of the economy is characterized by a shift in policy focus towards "people-centered" strategies, emphasizing long-term strategies for expanding domestic demand rather than short-term stimuli [25]. - The "new three drivers" of the economy, including service consumption, service industry investment, and service exports, have shown significant acceleration, indicating an approaching transformation opportunity [24]. Group 2 - The "anti-involution" movement is seen as a new phase of supply-side structural reform, with increased government and industry attention, broader coverage, and stronger coordination between policies and market mechanisms [26]. - The global macroeconomic landscape is expected to experience significant changes, particularly with the "American exceptionalism" narrative being challenged, leading to a rebalancing of global funds [29]. - Geopolitical risks have become a crucial factor in global macroeconomics and asset pricing since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with ongoing developments in geopolitical tensions influencing market narratives [32].
经济随笔丨“十四五”回答了哪些重大问题?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-13 12:13
Group 1 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has been characterized by the phrase "Wind and Rain, See the Rainbow," indicating a journey of continuous development despite challenges, with significant achievements anticipated for the future [1][2] - The average growth rate over the first four years of the plan is reported at 5.5%, which is likened to recreating a region as economically significant as the Yangtze River Delta, emphasizing the importance of maintaining momentum in development [2] - The plan places unprecedented importance on innovation, highlighting breakthroughs in major national projects that support an overall enhancement of innovation capabilities and systems [3][5] Group 2 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aims to address major issues in a world characterized by significant changes and instability, focusing on stabilizing development while ensuring safety in key areas such as food, energy, and national defense [2][3] - The plan emphasizes the importance of a people-centered development approach, integrating solutions to social issues across various sectors, including infrastructure and ecological initiatives [5][6][8] - The pursuit of high-quality development is a central theme, with efforts directed towards regional coordination, consumer trends, and investment optimization, all aimed at enhancing efficiency and effectiveness [8][9]
擘画新时代新征程民生建设新蓝图
Ren Min Ri Bao· 2025-06-09 23:39
Core Viewpoint - The document outlines the "Opinions" issued by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council, focusing on enhancing and improving people's livelihoods, addressing urgent issues faced by the public, and providing a strong impetus for the continuous improvement of living standards [1] Group 1: Policy Adaptation - The "Opinions" adapt to the evolving demands of society, emphasizing the need for continuous improvement in people's livelihoods and addressing diverse and multi-layered demands [2] - The document highlights the importance of macro policies being oriented towards people's livelihoods, aiming to create a virtuous cycle between economic development and the improvement of living standards [2][3] Group 2: Population Trends - The document recognizes the shift from population growth to a reduction phase, emphasizing the need for optimized social policies to address the challenges of an aging population and regional population disparities [3] - It calls for the expansion of inclusive services for the elderly and children, as well as the establishment of a comprehensive social security system [3] Group 3: Principles of Livelihood Construction - The "Opinions" propose four guiding principles: fairness, balance, inclusiveness, and accessibility, which are crucial for enhancing people's well-being and ensuring equitable distribution of development benefits [4] - Fairness is prioritized in social security, aiming to expand coverage and support low-income groups [4] - Balance focuses on reducing disparities in public service access between urban and rural areas [4] - Inclusiveness aims to enhance the quality of basic services in education and healthcare, ensuring they are affordable and sustainable [4] - Accessibility emphasizes the development of community-based services to improve the convenience of social services for all demographics [5] Group 4: Addressing Public Concerns - The document emphasizes the need to address urgent public concerns, such as ensuring social security continuity and improving access to quality healthcare [6][7] - It proposes measures to enhance the sharing of quality medical resources and improve the capabilities of grassroots healthcare services [7] - The "Opinions" also address educational resource disparities, proposing the construction and expansion of high-quality schools to alleviate educational anxiety among families [7] - Furthermore, it aims to ensure that migrant workers receive equal access to basic public services as local residents [8]