Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of continuous research iteration to approach the truth, highlighting that growth comes from persistent denial and reconstruction [2][26]. Group 1: Research Framework and Goals - The team is undergoing a comprehensive upgrade in 2025, focusing on restructuring the research framework and systematically displaying research outcomes [2]. - The guiding principle is to provide valuable independent research results that are grounded in reality and actionable [2]. Group 2: Economic Insights - The article discusses the shift in the economic "three drivers" from manufacturing to services, indicating that as GDP per capita reaches $10,000 to $30,000 and urbanization hits 70%, service sector demand will accelerate [28]. - It notes that new consumption policies emphasize long-term strategies for domestic demand expansion rather than short-term stimuli, while also providing support for manufacturing to counter tariff impacts [29]. - The concept of "anti-involution" is presented as a new phase of supply-side structural reform, with increased government and industry focus, broader coverage, and stronger coordination among policies and market mechanisms [31]. Group 3: Global Economic Trends - The article highlights that the biggest expectation gap in the global macroeconomic landscape for the first half of 2025 is the disproof of the "American exceptionalism" narrative [21]. - It mentions that the focus of tariffs may shift towards validating economic data, with potential concerns about recession if the U.S. unemployment rate rises to 4.6% [21]. - The impact of geopolitical risks, particularly since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, is noted as a significant factor in global macroeconomic conditions and asset pricing [23].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of continuous research iteration to approach the truth, highlighting that growth comes from persistent denial and reconstruction in research [2][26]. Group 1: Research Framework and Goals - The team is undergoing a comprehensive upgrade in 2025, focusing on restructuring the research framework and systematically displaying research outcomes [2]. - The guiding principle is to provide valuable independent research results that are grounded in reality and actionable [2]. Group 2: Economic Insights - The article discusses the shift in the economic "three drivers" from manufacturing to services, indicating that as GDP per capita reaches $10,000 to $30,000 and urbanization hits 70%, service sector demand will accelerate [28]. - It notes that new consumption policies emphasize long-term strategies for domestic demand expansion rather than short-term stimuli, while also providing support for manufacturing to counter tariff impacts [29]. Group 3: Structural Reforms - The concept of "anti-involution" is presented as a new phase of supply-side structural reform, which is gaining more attention from both the government and industry, with a broader scope and stronger coordination [31].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of continuous research and iteration in approaching the truth, highlighting the commitment to independent and valuable research outcomes in the evolving landscape of 2025 [2][26]. Group 1: Research Framework and Goals - The team is undergoing a comprehensive upgrade in 2025, focusing on restructuring the research framework and systematically presenting research results [2]. - The guiding principle is "research with reason, grounded in reality," aiming to provide genuinely valuable independent research [2]. Group 2: Economic Insights - The article discusses the shift in the economic "three drivers" from manufacturing to services, indicating that as GDP per capita reaches $10,000 to $30,000 and urbanization hits 70%, service demand will accelerate [28]. - It notes that new consumption policies emphasize long-term strategies for domestic demand expansion rather than short-term stimuli, with ongoing support for manufacturing to counter tariff impacts [29]. Group 3: Structural Reforms - The concept of "anti-involution" is presented as a new phase of supply-side structural reform, with increased government and industry focus, broader coverage, and stronger coordination among policies and market mechanisms [31].

Core Viewpoint - The research process is iterative and requires continuous denial and reconstruction to approach the truth, emphasizing the importance of diligent and practical research in the investment banking sector [22]. Group 1 - The year 2025 is marked as a year of comprehensive upgrades for the research team, focusing on restructuring the research framework and systematically displaying research results [22]. - The new development phase of the economy is characterized by a shift in policy focus towards "people-centered" strategies, emphasizing long-term strategies for expanding domestic demand rather than short-term stimuli [25]. - The "new three drivers" of the economy, including service consumption, service industry investment, and service exports, have shown significant acceleration, indicating an approaching transformation opportunity [24]. Group 2 - The "anti-involution" movement is seen as a new phase of supply-side structural reform, with increased government and industry attention, broader coverage, and stronger coordination between policies and market mechanisms [26]. - The global macroeconomic landscape is expected to experience significant changes, particularly with the "American exceptionalism" narrative being challenged, and the need to understand the trends of global capital rebalancing [29]. - Geopolitical risks have become a crucial factor in global macroeconomics and asset pricing since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with ongoing developments in geopolitical situations influencing market narratives [32].

Core Viewpoint - The research process is iterative and requires continuous denial and reconstruction to approach the truth, emphasizing the importance of diligent and practical research in the investment banking sector [22]. Group 1 - The year 2025 is marked as a year of comprehensive upgrade for the research team, focusing on restructuring the research framework and systematically displaying research results [22]. - The new development phase of the economy is characterized by a shift in policy focus towards "people-centered" strategies, emphasizing long-term strategies for expanding domestic demand rather than short-term stimuli [25]. - The "new three drivers" of the economy, including service consumption, service industry investment, and service exports, have shown significant acceleration, indicating an approaching transformation opportunity [24]. Group 2 - The "anti-involution" movement is seen as a new phase of supply-side structural reform, with increased government and industry attention, broader coverage, and stronger coordination between policies and market mechanisms [26]. - The global macroeconomic landscape is expected to experience significant changes, particularly with the "American exceptionalism" narrative being challenged, leading to a rebalancing of global funds [29]. - Geopolitical risks have become a crucial factor in global macroeconomics and asset pricing since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with ongoing developments in geopolitical tensions influencing market narratives [32].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift in global macroeconomic narratives from "American exceptionalism" to "American denialism," driven by factors such as tariff impacts, fiscal constraints, and the implications of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" [2][8]. Group 1: Narrative Shift - The global macroeconomic narrative has transitioned from "American exceptionalism" to "American denialism" in the first half of 2025, influenced by tariff disruptions and trade conflicts [3][8]. - In early 2025, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI remained above the neutral mark for three consecutive months, indicating resilience in industrial production, but fell below 50 in April [2][8]. - The IMF revised its global GDP growth forecast for 2025 down to 2.8%, with the U.S. forecast reduced from 2.7% to 1.8% [2][23]. Group 2: Economic Contradictions - The economic impact of tariffs has become a central theme, with the focus shifting to macro data validation rather than negotiation processes [4][53]. - The average tariff rate in the U.S. surged from 2.4% at the end of 2024 to approximately 16% by May 2025, marking a significant increase [4][54]. - The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" primarily extends existing tax cuts, which may have limited economic stimulation effects but could increase long-term debt supply pressure [4][84]. Group 3: Paradigm Shift in Asset Safety - The current economic baseline for the U.S. is a slowdown without recession, with inflationary pressures expected to persist for 2-3 quarters [5][8]. - The article suggests that if the dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds no longer serve as "safe assets," it could challenge the high valuations of U.S. tech stocks and the sustainability of twin deficits [6][8]. - The transition from "American exceptionalism" to "American denialism" raises questions about the long-term viability of U.S. assets in the global market [6][8].

Core Viewpoint - The major expectation gap in the global macroeconomic landscape for the first half of 2025 is the disproof of the "American exceptionalism" narrative, influenced by factors such as the Deepseek moment, Trump's tariff impacts, and fiscal constraints in the U.S. [1][2] Group 1: Narrative Shift - The narrative is shifting from "American exceptionalism" to "American denialism," with the global macroeconomic environment remaining stable overall, despite tariff disruptions affecting global industrial production and trade [2][3] - In the first quarter of 2025, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI remained above the 50 mark for three consecutive months, indicating expansion, but fell back to 49.8 in April [2] - The IMF has revised down its global GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 2.8%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from January, with the U.S. forecast lowered from 2.7% to 1.8% [2] Group 2: Economic Impact of Tariffs and Legislation - The tariff-induced economic shock is expected to be a central theme throughout the year, with a focus on macro data validation rather than negotiation processes [4] - The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" primarily extends existing tax cuts, which may have limited economic stimulation effects, while increasing long-term debt supply pressure due to higher deficits [4] - The act includes approximately 80% of existing tax cut extensions and 20% of new tax measures, which may not fully offset tariff revenues [4] Group 3: Paradigm Shift in Asset Safety - The baseline assumption for the U.S. economy under current tariff levels is "slowing but not recession," with inflationary pressures and economic downturn risks being relatively balanced [5] - Bloomberg consensus anticipates that inflation rebound will last for about 2-3 quarters, with year-end PCE and core PCE inflation peaks expected at 3.1% and 3.3%, respectively [5] - The U.S. may have entered a phase of simultaneous declines in stocks, bonds, and the dollar, driven by high inflation and twin deficits, which could undermine the perceived safety of U.S. assets [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift in global macroeconomic narratives from "American exceptionalism" to "American denialism," driven by factors such as tariff impacts, inflation expectations, and the implementation of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" [2][8]. Group 1: Narrative Shift - The global macroeconomic narrative has transitioned from "American exceptionalism" to "American denialism" in the first half of 2025, influenced by tariff disruptions and economic uncertainties [3][4]. - In early 2025, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI remained above the neutral level of 50 for three consecutive months, indicating resilience in industrial production, but fell below 50 in April [2][8]. - The IMF revised its global GDP growth forecast for 2025 down to 2.8%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from January, with the U.S. forecast lowered from 2.7% to 1.8% [2][23]. Group 2: Economic Impact of Tariffs and Legislation - The average tariff rate in the U.S. rose significantly from 2.4% at the end of 2024 to around 16% by May 2025, marking the highest level since World War II [4][54]. - The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" primarily extends existing tax cuts, which may have limited economic stimulation effects, while increasing long-term debt supply pressure due to higher deficits [4][84]. - The judicial challenges to tariffs may disrupt trade negotiations, with significant uncertainty surrounding the outcomes and potential tariff adjustments [61][62]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Inflation - The article highlights a potential paradigm shift where U.S. dollar-denominated assets may no longer be viewed as "safe assets," with inflationary pressures expected to rise alongside economic slowdown risks [5][6]. - Inflation is anticipated to rebound, with Bloomberg consensus predicting PCE inflation to peak at 3.1% and core PCE at 3.3% by the end of 2025 [5][71]. - The article notes that the inflation effects of tariffs have begun to manifest, with retail prices showing significant increases following tariff implementations [70][71].