证 券 研 究 报 告 安井食品（603345）2025 年中报点评 强推（维持） 当前承压，布局修复 目标价：100 元 事项： 评论： ❖ 风险提示：新品拓展不及预期、行业竞争加剧、食品安全问题等。 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 15,127 | 15,778 | 17,055 | 18,352 | | 同比增速(%) | 7.7% | 4.3% | 8.1% | 7.6% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 1,485 | 1,411 | 1,541 | 1,720 | | 同比增速(%) | 0.5% | -5.0% | 9.2% | 11.6% | | 每股盈利(元) | 4.46 | 4.23 | 4.62 | 5.16 | | 市盈率(倍) | 17 | 18 | 17 | 15 | | 市净率(倍) | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2025 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The new investment in the Jiaxing automotive parts production base aims to enhance production capacity for thermal management systems, air suspension systems, sealing systems, and transmission systems to meet market demand and strengthen product service capabilities, ultimately improving the company's competitiveness in the automotive supply chain [2] - The project is expected to generate an annual output value of approximately RMB 1.5 billion and tax revenue of about RMB 60 million within five years after reaching production [2] Summary by Sections Company Growth Logic - The company is focusing on its core transmission system business while expanding into new growth areas. The Thailand production base is set to commence operations in 2025, targeting Southeast Asia and European and American markets, which will enhance the company's international market share [3] - The company is also making strides in domestic markets by replacing imports in the transmission system product supply chain, having already partnered with major brands like SAIC-GM Wuling and Geely [3] New Business Areas - In 2025, the company plans to establish a commercial vehicle parts production base in Jinan, focusing on key clients such as Heavy Truck and FAW [4] - The company aims to develop lightweight air spring products for new energy vehicles and plans to mass-produce components like battery pipeline systems and motor pipeline systems, creating a product matrix that includes air suspension systems and thermal management systems [4] - The company has secured a significant order worth RMB 170 million from a well-known domestic automaker for battery-related products, covering the project period from 2025 to 2031 [4] - The company is also exploring non-automotive sectors, including partnerships with drone manufacturers and collaborations in the rail transit and robotics fields [4] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at RMB 1.135 billion, RMB 1.375 billion, and RMB 1.691 billion, representing year-on-year growth rates of approximately 19.7%, 21.1%, and 23.0% respectively [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be around RMB 191 million, RMB 233 million, and RMB 288 million for the same years, with growth rates of approximately 17.9%, 22.1%, and 23.8% respectively [5] - The price-to-earnings ratio (PE) for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 is expected to be approximately 22.4x, 18.3x, and 14.8x respectively [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, but showed signs of recovery in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, with a positive outlook for future earnings growth driven by inventory reduction among overseas clients and new product launches [1][2][4]. Financial Performance - For the full year 2024, the company achieved revenue of 443 million yuan (down 5.90%) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 135 million yuan (down 7.11%) [1] - In Q4 2024, revenue was 124 million yuan (up 31.59%) and net profit attributable to shareholders was 38 million yuan (up 37.92%) [1] - For Q1 2025, revenue reached 147 million yuan (up 24.86%) and net profit attributable to shareholders was 47 million yuan (up 21.45%) [1] Product and Market Development - The company’s medical endoscope business generated revenue of 345 million yuan in 2024 (down 7.04%), while optical revenue was 95 million yuan (down 1.80%) [2] - International revenue for 2024 was 306 million yuan (down 6.5%), and domestic revenue was 135 million yuan (down 4.70%) [2] - The company has successfully launched a full range of laparoscopes and various endoscope products in the domestic market, and new products for the U.S. market are set to enter mass production [3] Future Outlook - The company expects net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be 180 million, 230 million, and 280 million yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 34.8%, 25.4%, and 23.1% respectively [4] - The estimated EPS for the same period is projected to be 1.51, 1.90, and 2.34 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 23, 19, and 15 times [4] - A target price of approximately 42 yuan is set for 2025, based on a valuation of 28 times [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline of 9.3% year-on-year in 2024, with total revenue reaching 3.287 billion yuan, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 253 million yuan, down 9.7% year-on-year [4][5] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a significant revenue drop of 20.0% year-on-year, totaling 580 million yuan, with a net loss of 18.77 million yuan [4][5] - The company’s instant drink segment showed resilience with an 8.0% revenue increase, while the brewed product segment faced a 15.42% decline due to external market pressures [5][6] Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - In 2024, the brewed business generated 2.271 billion yuan, down 15.42% year-on-year, while the instant drink business achieved 973 million yuan, up 8.0% year-on-year [5] - The company’s revenue from the e-commerce channel decreased by 25.42% to 186 million yuan, while direct sales increased by 22.8% to 77.61 million yuan [5] Profitability and Cost Structure - The gross margin for 2024 was 38.3%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to lower raw material prices [6] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 7.7%, remaining stable year-on-year, while the first quarter of 2025 saw a decline to -3.2% [6] Future Outlook - The company plans to focus on the performance of its brewed products and the expansion of its instant drink channels, particularly in schools and restaurants [7] - New product launches in the instant drink segment are anticipated to drive growth, with a focus on optimizing product offerings and packaging [7] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, projecting net profits of 267 million yuan and 305 million yuan, respectively [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term performance pressure but is expected to improve gradually on a quarterly basis. The revenue for 2024 is projected at 2.257 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 22.18% [4][9] - The company is focusing on stabilizing its existing products while expanding its new product offerings. The revenue from various product segments shows significant growth, particularly in comprehensive nuts and beans [5] - The company is actively enhancing its sales channels, with notable performance in overseas markets, especially in Southeast Asia [5][8] Company Overview - Latest closing price: 74.53 yuan - Total shares: 0.93 billion, circulating shares: 0.50 billion - Total market value: 6.9 billion yuan, circulating market value: 3.7 billion yuan - 52-week high/low: 93.52/47.85 yuan - Debt-to-asset ratio: 24.5% - Price-to-earnings ratio: 18.00 [3] Financial Performance - For 2024, the company reported operating income of 2.257 billion yuan, net profit attributable to shareholders of 376 million yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 341 million yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 22.18%, 14.32%, and 16.91% [4] - The company’s gross margin and net margin for 2024 were 35.46% and 16.67%, showing slight declines compared to the previous year [6] - The profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been adjusted to 2.677 billion yuan and 3.102 billion yuan in revenue, with net profits of 402 million yuan and 496 million yuan respectively [9][11] Strategic Focus - The company plans to expand into new markets in Southeast Asia, with a focus on localizing product designs and increasing brand presence [7] - The strategy includes strengthening partnerships with major retail channels and enhancing e-commerce collaborations to drive growth [8] - Cost control measures are being implemented, particularly in raw material procurement, to improve profitability [8]

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that Ganyuan Foods is experiencing short-term performance pressure but anticipates gradual improvement in subsequent quarters, maintaining a "buy" rating for the stock [1]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2024, Ganyuan Foods reported operating revenue of 2.257 billion yuan, net profit attributable to shareholders of 376 million yuan, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 341 million yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 22.18%, 14.32%, and 16.91% respectively [2]. - In Q4 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 652 million yuan, net profit attributable to shareholders of 99 million yuan, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 93 million yuan, showing year-on-year growth of 22.05% but declines in net profit of -13.91% and -10.4% respectively [2]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 504 million yuan, net profit attributable to shareholders of 53 million yuan, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 46 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year declines of -13.99%, -42.21%, and -45.14% respectively [2]. Investment Highlights - The company is focusing on stabilizing its existing products while expanding its new product offerings, with revenue contributions from various product lines such as mixed nuts and beans showing growth rates of 39.80%, 12.56%, 10.48%, 19.72%, and 21.17% respectively [3]. - Ganyuan Foods is restructuring its product strategy by upgrading its flavor offerings in beans, nuts, and snacks, launching new products to enhance market presence and channel compatibility [3]. - The company is also diversifying its sales channels, with revenue from distribution, e-commerce, and other channels growing by 22.58%, 10.75%, and 65.45% respectively [3]. Profitability and Cost Management - In 2024, Ganyuan Foods reported a gross margin of 35.46% and a net profit margin of 16.67%, both showing slight declines compared to the previous year [4]. - The company faced increased cost pressures due to rising raw material prices, particularly palm oil, and higher expenses related to overseas market expansion and branding [4]. - For Q1 2025, the gross margin and net profit margin further declined to 34.32% and 10.47% respectively, attributed to increased sales and management expenses [4]. Future Outlook - The company plans to expand into new Southeast Asian markets, including Indonesia and Malaysia, with localized product designs expected to launch around May 2025 [5]. - Ganyuan Foods aims to enhance its e-commerce presence and deepen collaborations with platforms like Tmall and JD.com to drive sales growth [5]. - Cost management strategies include locking in prices for raw materials and increasing direct sourcing to optimize costs, with expectations for profitability to improve in the latter part of the year [5]. Earnings Forecast and Investment Rating - The revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to 2.677 billion yuan and 3.102 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 18.61% and 15.86% respectively [6]. - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised to 402 million yuan and 496 million yuan, indicating year-on-year growth of 6.86% and 23.34% respectively [6]. - The company maintains a "buy" rating, with projected earnings per share (EPS) for the next three years at 4.31, 5.32, and 6.34 yuan, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 17, 14, and 12 times [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term performance pressure but is expected to improve gradually on a quarterly basis. The revenue for 2024 is projected at 2.257 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 22.18% [4][9] - The company is focusing on stabilizing its existing products while expanding its new product offerings to enhance market presence and channel compatibility [5][8] Company Overview - Latest closing price: 74.53 yuan - Total shares: 0.93 billion, circulating shares: 0.50 billion - Total market value: 6.9 billion yuan, circulating market value: 3.7 billion yuan - 52-week high/low: 93.52/47.85 yuan - Debt-to-asset ratio: 24.5% - Price-to-earnings ratio: 18.00 [3] Financial Performance - For 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 2.257 billion yuan, net profit attributable to shareholders of 376 million yuan, and non-recurring net profit of 341 million yuan, with respective year-on-year changes of 22.18%, 14.32%, and 16.91% [4] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 652 million yuan, net profit of 99 million yuan, and non-recurring net profit of 93 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of 22.05%, -13.91%, and -10.4% [4] - For Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 504 million yuan, net profit of 53 million yuan, and non-recurring net profit of 46 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -13.99%, -42.21%, and -45.14% [4] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, revenue from various product segments was as follows: mixed nuts and beans (705 million yuan, +39.80%), green peas (524 million yuan, +12.56%), sunflower seeds (302 million yuan, +10.48%), and others [5] - Revenue from different sales models showed growth: distribution model (1.927 billion yuan, +22.58%), e-commerce (239 million yuan, +10.75%), and others (81 million yuan, +65.45%) [5] Profitability and Cost Management - The company's gross margin and net margin for 2024 were 35.46% and 16.67%, respectively, showing slight declines year-on-year [6] - The decline in profitability is attributed to rising raw material costs, increased expenses for overseas markets and brand investments, and tax base differences in Q4 2024 [6][8] Future Outlook - The company plans to expand into Southeast Asian markets such as Indonesia and Malaysia in 2025, focusing on local product design and trademark applications [7] - The strategy includes deepening cooperation with major retail channels and enhancing e-commerce partnerships to drive growth [8] - Profitability is expected to recover as raw material costs stabilize and scale effects are realized [8] Earnings Forecast - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are adjusted to 2.677 billion yuan and 3.102 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 18.61% and 15.86% [9] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are adjusted to 401.99 million yuan and 495.83 million yuan, with respective growth rates of 6.86% and 23.34% [9] - The projected earnings per share for 2025 and 2026 are 4.31 yuan and 5.32 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 17 and 14 [9]