1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The foundation of economic recovery needs to be consolidated, and domestic demand restoration still requires policy support. Attention should be paid to the policy signals released by the Politburo meeting in July [1]. - The property market shows a weak performance, and the supply - demand sides are both weak. In the second half of the year, more active property - easing policies may be needed to release the demand for improved housing [2][3]. - The commodity futures market is generally rising, with black - series, new - energy materials, and building materials leading the gains. The "anti - involution" policy strengthens the supply - side contraction expectation and drives the industry valuation repair [7][106]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Demand: New home sales increase month - on - month, and automobile consumption shows marginal improvement - New home sales: The transaction area of 20 - city commercial housing increased by 22% month - on - month and decreased by 7% year - on - year as of the week ending July 25. Second and third - tier cities had larger increases in new home sales, while first - tier cities decreased by 7% [13]. - Second - hand home sales: Among the monitored key cities, Beijing and Shanghai's second - hand home transaction areas increased by 4% and 3% month - on - month respectively, while Shenzhen and Hangzhou decreased by 13% and 15% [33]. - Automobile consumption: The average daily retail sales of passenger cars increased by 22.4% month - on - month and 14.3% year - on - year as of the week ending July 25. The national movie box office increased by 39.0% month - on - month, but was weaker than the same period last year. The national migration scale index decreased by 2.2% month - on - month [42]. 3.2 Production: Industrial production runs smoothly, and infrastructure construction starts remain strong - Mid - and upstream: As of the week ending July 25, the Tangshan blast furnace operating rate remained at 80.4%, the rebar operating rate rose by 1.0 pct to 43.9%, the PTA operating rate remained at 80.8%, the polyester filament operating rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang decreased by 0.8 pct to 92.1%, and the petroleum asphalt plant operating rate decreased by 4.0 pct to 28.8% [49]. - Downstream: The operating rates of automobile all - steel tires and semi - steel tires decreased month - on - month, but the semi - steel tire operating rate was still at a seasonal high [49]. 3.3 Investment: Apparent consumption of rebar improves, and rebar prices continue to rise - Rebar: As of the week ending July 25, the apparent consumption of rebar increased by 5.0% month - on - month to 217 tons, and the rebar price increased by 4.3% month - on - month to 3433.2 yuan/ton [64]. - Cement: As of the week ending July 25, the cement price decreased by 1.9% month - on - month to 105.9 points. As of the week ending July 18, the cement shipping rate increased by 0.8 pct to 40.9%, and the cement inventory ratio increased by 0.8 pct to 62.3% [64]. 3.4 Trade: Port throughput increases, and export container shipping prices decline - Export: As of the week ending July 25, port container throughput increased by 2.6% month - on - month, higher than the same period last year. The CCFI composite index decreased by 3.2% month - on - month. The BDI index continued to rise, increasing by 10.9% month - on - month [73]. - Import: The CICFI composite index decreased by 0.5% month - on - month [6]. 3.5 Prices: Agricultural product prices decline, and black - series products lead the gains - CPI: The agricultural product wholesale price 200 index decreased by 0.2% month - on - month as of the week ending July 25. Pork, egg, and vegetable prices increased, while fruit prices decreased [7]. - PPI: The Nanhua industrial product price index increased by 4.2% month - on - month. Brent crude oil spot price decreased by 1.1% month - on - month, COMEX gold futures price increased by 1.3% month - on - month, and LME copper spot price increased by 2.4% month - on - month [7]. - Commodity futures: Polysilicon futures settlement price increased by 17.5%, industrial silicon futures settlement price increased by 9.0%, coking coal futures settlement price increased by 28.9%, coke futures settlement price increased by 13.8%, glass futures settlement price increased by 21.1%, and PVC futures settlement price increased by 6.5% [106]. 3.6 Interest - rate Bond Tracking: The cumulative issuance progress of replacement bonds this year exceeds 94% - Next week (July 28 - August 1): The planned issuance of interest - rate bonds is 5532 billion yuan, with a net financing of 4345 billion yuan. Among them, treasury bonds are planned to issue 1800 billion yuan with a net financing of 1600 billion yuan, local bonds 3372 billion yuan with a net financing of 2431 billion yuan, and policy - bank bonds 360 billion yuan with a net financing of 315 billion yuan [110]. - Issuance progress: As of July 25, the cumulative issuance progress of replacement bonds was 94.1%, that of new general bonds was 64.7%, and that of new special bonds was 59.0%. The cumulative net issuance progress of treasury bonds was 57.7%, and that of policy - bank bonds was 68.6% [8][114][116]. 3.7 Policy Weekly Observation - On July 21, the "Housing Rental Regulations" was announced to regulate the housing rental market [118]. - On July 23, a subsidy project for elderly care services for moderately and severely disabled elderly was launched [119]. - On July 23, the tax policy for goods in Hainan Free Trade Port at the time of full - island customs closure was released [120]. - On July 25, it was reported that the national general public budget expenditure in the first half of 2025 was 141271 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% [121]. - On July 22, Chengdu planned to cancel housing sales restrictions in batches and increase housing provident fund loan support [123]. - On July 24, Zhongshan introduced measures to promote the high - quality development of the real - estate market [124].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The real - estate market shows weak supply and demand, and more aggressive easing policies may be needed in the second half of the year. The strength of policy implementation will significantly affect the real - estate market and investment. Industrial production runs smoothly, and infrastructure construction starts strongly. There are fluctuations in consumption, investment, trade, and prices, and the issuance progress of interest - rate bonds is relatively fast. [1][2][3][4][5][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Demand - New home sales declined both month - on - month and year - on - year, with significant drops in first - and second - tier cities. The real - estate market's supply and demand are weak, and more aggressive easing policies are needed to release the demand for improved housing. If policy strength exceeds expectations, the decline in real - estate sales and investment may slow down; otherwise, the market may remain at a low level. Second - hand home sales also decreased month - on - month. Automobile consumption declined marginally, while the national migration scale index increased, and the subway passenger volume in first - tier cities decreased. [11][41] 3.2 Production - In the mid - and upstream sectors, the blast furnace operating rate in Tangshan decreased, while the PTA operating rate increased. In the downstream sectors, the operating rates of automobile all - steel and semi - steel tires improved, and the semi - steel tire operating rate remained at a seasonal high. The infrastructure construction start - up showed marginal improvement. [48] 3.3 Investment - The apparent consumption of rebar decreased, but its price increased. The price of cement decreased, and the cement shipment rate and inventory ratio also declined. [64] 3.4 Trade - In terms of exports, port container throughput decreased, and the overall container shipping price declined, with the European route rising and the US West and East routes falling. The BDI index increased. In terms of imports, the container shipping price continued to decline. [75] 3.5 Prices - Agricultural product prices showed a marginal improvement, with pork and vegetable prices rising and egg and fruit prices falling. International crude oil prices generally increased, while the price of gold slightly declined. [86][96] 3.6 Interest - rate Bond Tracking - Next week (July 14 - 18), the planned issuance of interest - rate bonds is 500.2 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 10.6 billion yuan. As of July 11, the cumulative issuance progress of replacement bonds exceeded 90%, and the issuance progress of new general bonds and new special bonds was 58.3% and 50.6% respectively. [106][109][112] 3.7 Policy Weekly Observation - The central bank increased its gold reserves for the 8th consecutive month in June. The State Council issued a notice to support stable employment. The Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3500 points. Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper starting from August 1. The Ministry of Finance adjusted the assessment of state - owned commercial insurance companies. Some cities adjusted housing - related policies, including housing provident fund policies and housing consumption supply optimization. [118][119][120][121][122][123]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the economic situation across various sectors, including demand, production, investment, trade, prices, and interest - rate bonds. It shows that the real - estate market has a complex performance with new home sales having a mixed trend and second - hand home sales mostly declining. The automotive consumption is warming up, industrial production is stable with strong infrastructure construction, and there are specific changes in investment, trade, prices, and the issuance progress of interest - rate bonds [1][2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Demand - New home sales: The weekly new home sales increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. As of the week ending July 4, the transaction area of commercial housing in 20 cities was 3.498 million square meters, up 2% month - on - month and down 8% year - on - year, significantly lower than the seasonal level. There were differences among different city - tiers, with second - tier cities seeing a large increase in new home sales [1][11]. - Second - hand home sales: The transaction volume of second - hand homes in key cities mostly decreased month - on - month and year - on - year. As of the week ending July 4, the transaction areas of second - hand homes in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou decreased by 10%, 4%, 5%, and 18% month - on - month respectively, and 14%, 7%, 9%, and 22% year - on - year respectively [28][30]. - Automotive consumption: It continued to warm up. As of the week ending July 4, the average daily retail sales of passenger cars increased by 18.4% month - on - month, and were basically the same as the same period last year. The national movie box office increased by 17.0% month - on - month, but was weaker than the same period last year. The national migration scale index increased by 6.6% month - on - month, while the subway passenger volume in first - tier cities decreased by 0.2% month - on - month [39]. 2. Production - Mid - upstream: The operating rate of Tangshan blast furnaces and rebar decreased, while the operating rate of PTA, polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, and petroleum asphalt plants increased, indicating a possible marginal improvement in infrastructure construction [2][46]. - Downstream: The operating rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires of automobiles decreased, but the absolute value of semi - steel tires was still higher than the same period in previous years. The trade - in subsidy policy may support the production side in the short term [2]. 3. Investment - Rebar: The apparent consumption of rebar improved, with the price increasing by 0.9% month - on - month to 3230.6 points, and the apparent consumption increasing by 2.3% month - on - month to 2.25 million tons as of the week ending July 4 [63]. - Cement: The cement price decreased by 1.4% month - on - month to 111.5 points as of the week ending July 4. As of the week ending June 27, the cement shipping rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 40.8%, and the cement storage ratio decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 62.8% [63]. 4. Trade - Export: The port container throughput decreased by 0.7% month - on - month as of the week ending July 4, but was higher than the same period last year. The CCFI composite index decreased by 1.9% month - on - month. The freight rates of European and Southeast Asian routes increased, while those of the US West and East routes decreased. The BDI index continued to decline, dropping 10.3% month - on - month [77]. - Import: The container shipping price decreased, and the CICFI composite index was 685.4 points, a slight decrease of 0.6% month - on - month [77]. 5. Prices - CPI: The agricultural product wholesale price 200 index decreased by 0.1% month - on - month. The pork price increased by 0.8% month - on - month, while the prices of eggs, vegetables, and fruits decreased by 1.8%, 0.5%, and 0.8% month - on - month respectively [5][89]. - PPI: Commodity prices were differentiated. The metal price index increased, the Nanhua industrial product price index increased by 0.3% month - on - month, the Brent crude oil spot price decreased by 1.8% month - on - month, the COMEX gold futures price increased by 0.1% month - on - month, and the LME copper spot price increased by 0.6% month - on - month [5][96]. 6. Interest - rate Bond Tracking - Next - week issuance plan: From July 7 to July 11, the disclosed issuance of interest - rate bonds is 268.8 billion yuan, with a net financing of 58.7 billion yuan. Among them, the issuance of national bonds is 0 billion yuan with a net financing of - 80.1 billion yuan, the issuance of local bonds is 231.8 billion yuan with a net financing of 107.8 billion yuan, and the issuance of policy - bank bonds is 37 billion yuan with a net financing of 31 billion yuan [107]. - Issuance progress: As of July 4, the cumulative issuance of replacement bonds this year was 1.8246 trillion yuan, with a cumulative issuance progress of 91.2%. The issuance of new general bonds was 452 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance progress of 56.5%. The issuance of new special bonds was 2.1635 trillion yuan, with a cumulative issuance progress of 49.2% [6][109][112]. 7. Policy Week Observation - Central Financial and Economic Commission's 6th meeting: On July 1, Xi Jinping chaired the meeting to discuss promoting the construction of a unified national market and high - quality development of the marine economy [118]. - Central Bank's operation: In June, the central bank did not conduct open - market treasury bond transactions, marking the sixth consecutive month of no such operations [119]. - China's PMI data: In June, the manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and composite PMI output index were 49.7%, 50.5%, and 50.7% respectively, up 0.2, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an overall expansion of the economic prosperity level [120]. - US "Big and Beautiful" Act: On July 3 local time, the US House of Representatives passed the "Big and Beautiful" Act, which is expected to increase the US deficit by $3.4 trillion in the next decade [121]. - Trump's tariff statement: On July 4 local time, Trump said that countries will start paying new tariffs on August 1, but did not name specific countries [122]. - Nanjing's housing provident fund policy: Nanjing adjusted its housing provident fund policy, including expanding the scope of off - site loans, relaxing the conditions for off - site housing purchase withdrawals, and extending the maximum loan term for existing housing [123]. - Hubei's real - estate policy: On July 3, Jingmen, Hubei issued policies to stabilize the real - estate market, including promoting the sales of underground parking spaces and commercial and office buildings, and promoting the spot - house sales from January 1, 2026 [124].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the document. 2. Core View of the Report - The report focuses on the analysis of the economic, fiscal, and debt changes in China and its provinces in 2024. It reveals the overall trends and provincial - level differences in these aspects, aiming to track the changes in local economic finance, debt pressure, and solvency [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Establishment of the Database - Huachuang Fixed - Income has established the [Local Economic, Fiscal, and Debt Database 2025 Edition], which includes economic, fiscal, and debt data from 2018 onwards for the whole country, provinces, prefecture - level cities, and districts and counties. It covers various indicators such as GDP and its growth rate, general public budget revenue, fiscal self - sufficiency rate, government - funded revenue, central transfer payments to local governments, comprehensive financial resources, local government debt balance, interest - bearing debt balance of bond - issuing urban investment companies, regional broad - sense debt balance, and regional broad - sense debt ratio [1][8]. 3.2 Changes in National Economic, Fiscal, and Debt Conditions in 2024 3.2.1 Economic Aspect - China's economic aggregate was close to 135 trillion yuan, with the tertiary industry accounting for 56.7% of GDP, reaching a historical high and providing significant support to the economy. The GDP was 134.91 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5%. The proportion of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries in GDP was 6.8%, 36.5%, and 56.7% respectively, with the primary and secondary industries decreasing by 0.3 and 1.8 percentage points year - on - year, and the tertiary industry increasing by 2.1 percentage points [2][9]. 3.2.2 Fiscal Aspect - China's local government's comprehensive financial resources decreased by 3.3% year - on - year to 27.7 trillion yuan. The general public budget revenue was 11.93 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.7%, but with limited growth in the first three quarters due to factors such as insufficient domestic demand, falling price indices, and the carry - over effect of tax cuts. The government - funded revenue was 5.74 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.5%, mainly due to the continued decline in land transfer revenue. The central transfer payments to local governments were 10.04 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2.4% [2][13]. 3.2.3 Debt Aspect - In 2024, 2 trillion yuan of replacement bonds and 800 billion yuan of new special bonds were issued for debt resolution. The regional broad - sense debt balance and debt ratio increased year - on - year, and the growth rate also increased compared to the previous year. However, under the combined effect of debt resolution and strict debt supervision, the growth rate of urban investment debt slowed down significantly to 3.1%. By the end of 2024, the local government debt balance was 47.54 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 16.7%, with the growth rate increasing by 0.5 percentage points. The interest - bearing debt balance of bond - issuing urban investment companies was 63.9 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%, with the growth rate decreasing by 8.6 percentage points. The regional broad - sense debt balance was 111.44 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%, and the regional broad - sense debt ratio was 402%, an increase of 44 percentage points [2][17]. 3.3 Changes in Provincial Economic, Fiscal, and Debt Conditions in 2024 3.3.1 Economic Aspect - The number of provinces with an economic volume of over 5 trillion yuan increased to 11 (including newly added Shanghai and Anhui), and the number of provinces with a growth rate reaching the national average increased to 22. Guangdong and Jiangsu still led in economic volume, both exceeding 13 trillion yuan. Hainan, Ningxia, Qinghai, and Tibet had an economic volume of less than 1 trillion yuan. Tibet had the highest growth rate of 6.3%, while Shanxi's GDP growth rate was only 2.3% due to the continuous decline in energy prices [3][20]. 3.3.2 Fiscal Aspect - The comprehensive financial resources of 22 provinces increased, while those of Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Guangdong decreased significantly due to the drag of government - funded revenue. In terms of general public budget revenue, 5 provinces (Qinghai, Henan, Guangdong, Shaanxi, and Hainan) decreased year - on - year, mainly due to factors such as insufficient domestic demand and falling price indices. 26 provinces had an increase, and Tibet, Jilin, and Xinjiang had a year - on - year growth rate of over 10%. In terms of government - funded revenue, 21 provinces decreased year - on - year, with Hunan's government - funded revenue decreasing by 32% due to a significant decline in land transfer revenue. Tianjin, Yunnan, Hubei, and Heilongjiang saw a year - on - year increase of over 10% due to a slight recovery in the land market. In terms of central transfer payments to local governments, 6 provinces (Guangdong, Jiangsu, Beijing, Jilin, Tianjin, and Shanghai) decreased slightly year - on - year [4][24]. 3.3.3 Debt Aspect - Among the 31 provinces, only Tianjin's broad - sense debt balance decreased year - on - year, and 25 provinces' broad - sense debt ratios increased year - on - year, with Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Guangdong being more prominent. Tianjin achieved remarkable results in urban investment debt resolution. In terms of local government debt balance, all provinces had an increase, with Tibet having an 80% year - on - year increase due to a low base, and 25 provinces having a year - on - year growth rate of over 10%, mainly due to the high issuance of replacement bonds in 2024. In terms of the interest - bearing debt balance of bond - issuing urban investment companies, 23 provinces had an increase, with Hainan, Xinjiang, and Jilin having a year - on - year growth rate of over 10%. Heilongjiang, Tianjin, and Liaoning had a year - on - year decrease of over 15%, and specific entities in these provinces also achieved good debt - resolution results [5][27][28].

点击上图 ▲立即加入 2万亿再融资专项置换债发行超八成 5月29日消息，今年全国已有33个地区（省和计划单列市）启动再融资专项置换债发行，累计完成发行规模16291.11亿元。以2万亿额度计算， 今年的置换再融资债发行进程已达81.45%。其中，江苏省已完成2511亿元的置换债发行，是唯一一个发行规模超过千亿的地区。 5月至今，全国置换债只发行了211亿元，较前期的千亿规模明显降速。在置换债发行降速的同时，新增专项债开始放量。5月新增专项债发行 4432亿元，前四个月的发行规模分别为2048亿、3920亿、3635亿、2301亿元。今年前五个月新增专项债累计发行1.63万亿，达到今年4.4万亿 额度的37%。（财联社） ｜点评｜ 今年置换债发行逐渐进入尾声，地方政府新增债券的发行即将提速。置换债的发行是为了缓解地方政府存量债务压力，将短期高利率 债券置换为中长期低利率债券，减少地方政府利息支出。地方政府支出项减少后，对新项目的投资包袱将减轻不少，更有余力支持促消费等增 量政策的实施。 今年地方政府和国债发行力度明显加大，对市场的流动性形成一定扰动，债市供给增多，商业银行、保险机构等部门对债券购买的热情有所降 ...