国泰海通煤炭黄涛团队 持续开展煤炭深度研究，分别从反内卷、电煤需求、煤炭企业成本、疆煤等不同视角切入，前瞻挖掘煤炭行业投资机会，以下为研究报告、电 话会议、深度报告节选。 一、研究报告 （点击标题查看报告） 专题研究： 深度研究： 01、煤化工风起新疆，或迎来黄金时代 20250102 二、电话会议回放 （扫码查看） 01、煤炭"反内卷"政策再起，供需拐点明确 7月22日 02、周期行业"反内卷"专题探讨 7月22日 三、重点报告节选 01、煤炭"反内卷"专题研究二：不一样的煤炭，中期行业拐点已现 20250730 02、煤炭"反内卷"专题研究一："反内卷"务实煤价底部，当下就是拐点 20250717 03、电煤需求展望专题：新能源步入下半场，电煤压力最大已过 20250707 04、电煤需求研究专题：从用电结构变化看电煤需求底部支撑 20250702 05、煤炭企业成本专题：从财务及固定资产视角看价格支撑 20250410 煤炭"反内卷"专题研究二：不一样的煤炭，中期行业拐点已现 报告日期：20250730 导读： 通过对比煤炭行业当前与其他周期性行业（如多晶硅、玻璃）在供给组成上的深层次差异，我们认为煤炭 ...

Group 1 - The China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association held a meeting emphasizing the need to maintain safety and stability, improve coal supply quality, and promote market balance amid changing external conditions [1] - The meeting highlighted the severe imbalance in coal supply and demand, urging coal enterprises to adhere to long-term contracts and enhance management practices to ensure contract fulfillment [1] - With the arrival of high temperatures, coastal power plants are experiencing increased daily coal consumption and declining inventory, leading to a forecast of rising coal prices due to imminent replenishment needs [1] Group 2 - Guotai Junan Securities reported that the rapid growth of renewable energy installations and generation is increasingly squeezing coal power, raising concerns about potential negative growth for coal power in the future [2] - The firm predicts that starting in 2025, with new policies for renewable energy and considering the current pressure on the grid, the marginal impact on coal power will weaken, with a potential demand turning point for coal expected around 2027 [2] Group 3 - Related Hong Kong-listed companies in the coal industry include China Coal Energy (01898), Yancoal Australia (03668), Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (01171), China Shenhua Energy (01088), and China Qinfa (00866) [3]

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of the "430" and "531" policies will lead to a decrease in the profitability of new energy projects, resulting in a slowdown in new energy development after the initial rush in early 2025. The marginal impact on coal consumption is expected to diminish, with a potential turning point for coal consumption around 2027 [1]. Group 1: New Energy Development - Over the past decade, new energy has experienced rapid growth, significantly impacting thermal power demand. By the end of 2024, the total installed capacity of wind and solar energy in China is projected to reach 1.4 billion kilowatts, achieving the 2030 target six years ahead of schedule. The share of thermal power generation capacity has decreased from 66.75% in 2015 to 43.88% in 2024 [2]. - The rapid growth of new energy has led to a notable decline in the growth rate of thermal power generation, which is now lagging behind the overall electricity consumption growth rate [2]. Group 2: Policy Impact - The "430" policy highlights the increasing pressure on distributed solar energy consumption, with some provinces halting new registrations for distributed solar projects. The profitability of these projects has become highly uncertain, ending the previous model of easy profits from simply installing power stations [3]. - The "531" policy, effective from January 2025, will push new energy into market trading, with settlement prices expected to decrease significantly compared to coal-based benchmark prices. This is likely to result in a substantial decline in new installations of distributed solar energy starting in the second half of 2025 [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The new energy sector is entering a new phase, with the peak of new energy installations likely occurring in 2024. The pressure on thermal power is expected to be greatest in 2025, but with steady growth in electricity demand driven by sectors such as electric vehicles and AI, the pressure on coal consumption is anticipated to ease in 2026, with a potential upward turning point in 2027 [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the rapid development of renewable energy has significantly impacted coal power demand, leading to concerns about a potential decline in coal consumption in the future. However, the company believes that the era of rapid growth for renewables is over, and the marginal impact on coal power will weaken, with a demand turning point for coal expected around 2027 [1][3]. - Over the past decade, driven by favorable policies, China's renewable energy generation capacity and output have grown rapidly, with total wind and solar capacity reaching 1.4 billion kilowatts by the end of 2024, six years ahead of the 2030 target. Consequently, the share of coal power generation capacity has decreased from 66.75% in 2015 to 43.88% in 2024 [1]. - The share of coal power generation has also declined from 75.39% in 2015 to 64.51% in 2024, with coal power generation growth significantly lagging behind overall electricity consumption growth since 2024 [1]. Group 2 - The pressure for renewable energy consumption is increasing, with the "430" and "531" policies set to be implemented. The "430" policy, effective January 2025, will significantly reduce the profitability of distributed solar projects, ending the previous model of easy profits from installed capacity. The "531" policy will push renewables into market trading, likely leading to further declines in settlement prices compared to coal benchmarks [2]. - The company anticipates that the new policies will lead to a decline in renewable energy installations, with 2024 potentially marking a peak in renewable capacity. The greatest pressure on coal power is expected in 2025, but with steady growth in electricity demand driven by sectors like electric vehicles and AI, coal consumption may see a turning point upwards by 2027 [3].

Core Insights - The report suggests that spot electricity prices may have bottomed out, leading to potential improvements in valuation and performance for the sector [1] - The analysis indicates that the electricity market is undergoing significant changes, particularly in the context of coal-fired power generation and renewable energy integration [3] Group 1: Coal Power - In northern regions, the proportion of renewable energy is higher, making coal power more scarce during peak times, which could lead to price increases [3] - The report anticipates that after three years of decline, the spot electricity price in Gansu will rise for the first time in 2025, surpassing long-term contracts [3] - In Q1 2025, coal power generation in China decreased by 4.7% year-on-year, with major state-owned enterprises experiencing significant drops in electricity output [21][22] Group 2: Hydropower - The report highlights that large hydropower resources are becoming increasingly scarce as most potential sites have been developed, particularly outside Tibet [35] - It is projected that hydropower prices will see a moderate increase during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, driven by further marketization [42] - Major hydropower companies are expected to show stable profit growth, with significant revenue from electricity sales [45] Group 3: Renewable Energy - The report notes that by 2024, the installed capacity of renewable energy in China reached 1.41 billion kilowatts, accounting for 42% of total installed capacity, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27.4% from 2020 to 2024 [10][57] - The analysis indicates that the new energy policy aims to stabilize electricity prices and control the growth rate of installed capacity, suggesting a potential slowdown in future capacity additions [3] - The report also points out that the profitability of renewable energy is under pressure due to market dynamics, with significant declines in electricity prices observed in Guangdong [61][62]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The report indicates that spot electricity prices may have bottomed out, leading to improvements in both valuation and performance [1] - The report highlights the increasing scarcity of large hydropower assets as the development of hydropower in China has largely been completed, except for the Tibet region [41][46] - The report anticipates that the approval of nuclear power projects will continue, with an expected national installed capacity of 110 million kilowatts by 2030, reflecting a CAGR of +11% from 2024 [3] - The report notes that the share of renewable energy in installed capacity has exceeded 40%, with significant growth expected in wind and solar power by 2030 [60][63] Summary by Sections Thermal Power - In northern regions, the higher proportion of renewable energy leads to better scarcity of thermal power, making prices easier to rise than to fall [3] - Recent increases in spot electricity prices in southern regions are attributed to previously low thermal power prices, which have severely impacted power plant profitability [3] Hydropower - The report states that the hydropower market in China has a relatively low electricity market share, with stable prices during the 13th Five-Year Plan and a slight increase expected during the 14th Five-Year Plan [46] - The scarcity of large hydropower assets is expected to become more pronounced as development enters its later stages [41] Renewable Energy - The report suggests that new policies for renewable energy will focus more on stabilizing electricity prices and controlling installed capacity growth, potentially leading to a slowdown in installation rates [3] - The report highlights that the marketization of renewable energy is progressing, but electricity prices are under pressure [64] Nuclear Power - Since 2019, the approval of nuclear power projects has become normalized, with over 10 units approved annually for four consecutive years [3] - The report projects that by 2030, the national installed capacity of nuclear power will reach 110 million kilowatts, indicating a robust growth trajectory [3] Financial Performance of Major Hydropower Companies - The report provides detailed financial metrics for major hydropower companies, indicating stable revenue and profit margins, with a focus on improving debt structures and reducing financing costs [54][55] - The dividend payouts of major hydropower companies have been steadily increasing, reflecting a commitment to returning value to shareholders [59]