Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for adaptability and continuous learning in the investment landscape, particularly in the context of emerging technologies like AI and biotechnology, highlighting the importance of maintaining a growth mindset amidst uncertainty [6][7][11]. Group 1: Investment Landscape - The current investment environment is characterized by collective anxiety within the Chinese venture capital community, questioning how to navigate a landscape devoid of simple innovation models [7]. - The transition from traditional investment strategies to hard technology sectors, such as biotechnology, poses significant challenges for seasoned investors who must adapt to new paradigms [9][10]. - The concept of "infinite games" is introduced, suggesting that successful companies focus on continuous evolution rather than short-term victories, which is crucial for long-term sustainability [24][25]. Group 2: Cultural Confidence - There is a deep-rooted cultural confidence in Chinese entrepreneurship, reflecting a historical resilience and a spirit of innovation that persists despite challenges [12][13]. - The belief in a new cycle of innovation, termed "Innovation 2.0," is gaining traction among investors and entrepreneurs, indicating a shift towards optimism in the market [12][16]. Group 3: AI and Future Trends - The emergence of AI is seen as a transformative force that will redefine productivity, enabling individuals and small teams to achieve significant market valuations [17]. - The article discusses the potential for AI to integrate into various industries, suggesting that its true impact will be realized when it becomes ubiquitous in decision-making processes [17][19]. Group 4: Narrative and Collaboration - The ability to create compelling narratives is highlighted as a unique human trait that drives collaboration and innovation, essential for achieving extraordinary outcomes [19][20]. - Successful companies are described as those that not only provide solutions but also construct an attractive vision for the future, fostering a shared sense of purpose among stakeholders [21][22]. Group 5: Learning and Growth - Continuous learning and iteration are emphasized as critical components of success in an ever-evolving business landscape, with failures viewed as valuable learning experiences [28][30]. - The article concludes with a call for entrepreneurs to embrace challenges and maintain a commitment to growth, underscoring that great companies thrive by remaining engaged in the market and evolving over time [30].

这不仅是刘芹个人有过的困惑，也是整个中国创投圈的集体焦虑。人们在问：在这个不再有简单模式创新红利的时代，该如何自 处？是固守旧日的荣光，还是在完全陌生的领域里从零开始？ 刘芹选择了后者，但他并没有用激昂的口号来掩饰转型的痛苦，而是选择剖析自己作为一名"过时投资人"的心路历程。从他的文字 里，能看到一种与时代和自我的和解：接受焦虑是一种常态。而在所有变量都在剧烈波动的当下，唯一不变的最优策略，或许就是 保持在这个游戏里，不要离场，持续成长。 「2025尾声」仍在征集之中，欢迎商业世界和资本市场的思考者们通过后台或chenzhiyan@36kr.com与我们联系。相信，时代变幻， 唯真正的思考不灭。 「 Test early, fail fast, learn faster. 」 文 ｜ 五源资本 刘芹 又到年末，在各种年度盘点、未来预测出街之前，「暗涌Waves」邀请了一级市场里以思考性著称的投资人们，分享一年尾声时自 己最想说的话。这是第一篇，来自五源资本创始合伙人刘芹。 这篇文章来自五源资本近期的创始人年会上刘芹的开场演讲。今年大会的主题是"Prompt()·涌现"，它指向当下这个没有标准答案的 时代，AI ...

本质来说，无论是无尽冬日还是文明 6，最终都是以取胜为目标的有限游戏，和币圈一样。跟魏神交流的时候他提过一个很有意思的观点，金融战就是一种以资本为血条的现代人的战争而这些在本阶段，保持对有限游戏里发生的小创新的关注的同时，玩一些无限游戏探索自己的边界会比较正 EV。我最近就在致力于把自己重新养一遍 😂Yuyue (@yuyue_chris):最近空闲时间玩了无尽冬日，一个流水巨大、广告做得铺天盖地的小程序游戏。里面冷淡一点的服里活跃玩家只有 500 个左右（我基本觉得跟币圈和他一个服的玩家人数也差不多了） ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the distinction between finite and infinite games in business, emphasizing the need for companies to shift from short-term competition to long-term value creation [2] - It highlights how the instant noodle industry, particularly through the example of Kang Shifu, is undergoing significant transformation driven by technological innovation and consumer insights [3][4] Industry Transformation - The instant noodle market has evolved from merely satisfying hunger to providing a comprehensive consumer experience, with many brands engaging in superficial innovations that fail to establish technological barriers [3][4] - Kang Shifu has embraced a philosophy of continuous optimization, integrating advanced technologies such as aerospace patents into its production processes, enhancing product quality and consistency across different regions [4][6] Technological Innovation - Kang Shifu holds over 600 patents, utilizing these innovations to drive quality improvements and set industry standards, which positions the brand as a leader in the instant noodle sector [6] - The introduction of products like the "Special Special" fresh noodle, which employs unique cooking techniques, demonstrates Kang Shifu's commitment to redefining the category and meeting evolving consumer expectations [4][6] Consumer Insights and Emotional Marketing - The company has shifted its focus from merely fulfilling functional needs to addressing emotional connections with consumers, creating products tailored to specific scenarios and emotional states [7][9] - Kang Shifu's marketing strategies leverage emotional resonance, particularly with younger consumers, by associating products with social experiences and emotional comfort [11][13] Product Diversification and Market Positioning - Kang Shifu has developed a diverse product matrix that caters to various consumer segments and dining scenarios, moving from generic offerings to more refined, targeted products [8][9] - The brand's approach includes launching products that align with specific meal occasions, such as the "He Mian" series for lunch and premium cup noodles for quick meals, enhancing its market appeal [8][10] Digital Transformation and Supply Chain Innovation - The company is advancing its digital transformation, establishing a comprehensive digital ecosystem that enhances supply chain management and food safety [15][17] - Kang Shifu's integration of agricultural partnerships ensures product quality from the source, reflecting a commitment to sustainability and consumer safety [15][17] Long-term Strategy and Market Growth - Kang Shifu's focus on long-term value creation and innovation has resulted in a notable 11.9% growth in its instant noodle business in the first half of 2025, despite market challenges [17] - The company's strategy exemplifies a commitment to "long-termism," continuously exploring new possibilities within the instant noodle category while other competitors focus on short-term gains [17][18]

Group 1 - The story of Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) and FTX illustrates the rise and fall of a significant player in the cryptocurrency market, highlighting the intersection of technology idealism, utilitarian philosophy, and human weaknesses [2][4] - SBF's philosophy of Effective Altruism (EA) emphasizes using rational and efficient methods for charity, aiming for the "greatest good for the greatest number" [5][6] - SBF's approach to wealth generation was driven by the belief that earning money was a moral responsibility to fund charitable causes, leading to the establishment of Alameda Research and FTX, which rapidly grew to a valuation of $40 billion [6][7] Group 2 - The concept of "infinite games" versus "finite games" is introduced, with SBF claiming to play an infinite game aimed at enhancing human welfare, while his methods reflected a finite game mentality focused on winning at all costs [9][10] - The blurred lines between FTX and Alameda Research raised concerns, as FTX's initial funding came from Alameda, and the use of FTT tokens as collateral created a precarious financial situation [10][11] - The misuse of customer funds by Alameda, which were intended for high-risk investments and personal loans, ultimately led to the collapse of FTX, revealing a Ponzi-like scheme [11][12] Group 3 - The internal culture at Alameda, characterized by high intelligence but social challenges, fostered a reality distortion field that led to a disregard for ethical standards and risk management [12][13] - The collapse of FTX was triggered by a media report exposing Alameda's balance sheet, leading to a panic and a bank run that resulted in $6 billion in withdrawal requests within 72 hours [13][14] - The story serves as a cautionary tale about the dangers of placing too much trust in "genius narratives" and the importance of adhering to traditional financial rules, which are crucial for maintaining trust and stability in the market [15][16]

Core Insights - Insta360, a Shenzhen-based smart imaging company, experienced a significant stock market debut, with its share price soaring nearly threefold and market capitalization exceeding 70 billion yuan, establishing itself as the "first stock in smart imaging" on the A-share market [2][3] - Founder Liu Jingkang, a notable figure in the tech industry, emphasizes responsibility and commitment in the face of market excitement, recognizing that the real challenges lie ahead as industry giants and AI trends emerge [3][4] Company Strategy - The company chose to list on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board five years ago, which is more favorable for tech companies focused on long-term growth rather than immediate profitability [5] - Liu acknowledges the market's expectations as a double-edged sword, serving as both pressure and motivation for the company to meet heightened standards [5][6] Competitive Landscape - DJI is identified as a significant competitor in the action camera market, with concerns about its potential impact on Insta360's market position [6][10] - Liu compares the imaging market to the gaming industry, suggesting that it is less prone to homogenization and offers opportunities for unique experiences, allowing for coexistence and collaboration with competitors like DJI [8][9] Innovation and Development - The company focuses on a dual strategy of "fast variables" (product and technology innovation) and "slow variables" (brand, channel, and user perception) to maintain a competitive edge [11][12] - Liu categorizes innovation into three levels: pure software innovation, soft-hard integration, and soft-hard-chip innovation, each with varying timelines for market impact [12] Organizational Philosophy - The company prioritizes employee development, believing that a well-trained and motivated team will ultimately lead to better customer value and shareholder returns [18] - Liu emphasizes the importance of curiosity as a key quality for talent, which drives innovation and improvement within the organization [13][18]