以下内容授权转载自公众号：排排网研究院 （点击↑↑ 上图查看回放 ） 2025年，中国私募证券资产管理规模历史性突破七万亿元大关。市场稳步上行与策略创新双轮驱动行业进阶，而市场与行业结构的不断细分、行 业内竞争的日趋激烈、全球大环境的不稳定，再加上AI技术普及带来的行业变革冲击，共同为行业发展提出了全新命题。如何在机遇与挑战并存 的新格局中精准定位、实现持续进化，已成为全行业的核心议题。 值此行业关键节点，由排排网集团主办，银河期货、方正证券、希施玛数科、中辉期货、私募排排网、国联期货协办的第二十届私募基金发展论 坛，于2026年1月8日在深圳星河丽思卡尔顿酒店盛大启幕。本次论坛以"循光而行、星河万里"为主题，汇聚公募、私募、券商等领域的前沿专 家、行业领军者以及专业从业者，围绕AI赋能投资新范式、权益市场投资机遇、CTA策略配置价值等核心议题展开深度交流，共探中国私募基金 行业高质量发展的全新路径。 Fell Fell 嘉宾观点 Guest opin 2025年是私募证券行业的里程碑之 年. 管理规模首破7万亿元,成为私募 行业增长核心引擎。这一年,私募行业 活力进发:百亿私募阵营稳步扩容,赚 钱效应凸显, ...

财经频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：钟离 他强调，财富管理是金融"人民性"的体现，买方投顾转型是必然方向。在低利率环境下，资产配置需借 助多元化产品与多策略交易工具，如结构化产品、量化策略等，以提升组合抗风险能力和收益稳定性。 葛小波还提到，应理性看待量化交易与算法技术对市场流动性与效率的积极作用，倡导"金融向善"的发 展理念。 葛小波总结称，财富管理与多元化交易不仅是行业转型的重要抓手，更是证券公司实现高质量发展、更 好服务居民财富增长需求的必经之路。 1月8日，京东科技在京举办"同心聚力 合创未来——2026京东财富和TA的朋友们"年度盛会。会上，国 联民生证券党委副书记、总裁葛小波围绕"财富管理与多元化交易"发表主题演讲，深入探讨证券行业高 质量发展的路径与思考。 葛小波指出，财富管理能力正成为投资银行高质量发展的关键。他回顾国际投行发展历程，强调从传统 债权、股票业务向交易类业务演进，最终迈向财富管理与金融科技融合的新阶段。以高盛为例，其在财 富管理转型上的战略调整体现出该业务对投行长期竞争力的重要影响。 针对我国证券行业现状，葛小波认为当前仍存在财富管理服务缺位、买方投顾深度不足 ...

一、交易提示 渣打银行最新展望指出，2025年全球罕见普涨后，2026年资产表现将显著分化：美国经济"软着陆"概率上升、贸易紧张边 际缓和、AI提升生产率，共同为风险资产提供跑赢空间，但主要经济体增长切换与地缘格局重塑亦加剧波动。机构建议， 应通过跨区域、跨行业、多策略的分散化配置，对冲不确定性并捕捉结构性机会。 （2）2026年首周，券商指数放量上攻，"牛市旗手"再成焦点。多家卖方策略一致看好板块估值修复：头部券商PB仍处历 史30%分位以下，叠加建设国际一流投行、并购整合、投行回暖与财富管理转型提速，行业盈利增速有望回升。机构建议 沿"低估值头部+区域并购标的+高弹性零售业务"三条主线布局，分享慢牛行情下的券商业绩与估值双击机会。 （3）近年来，券商资管业务保持稳健发展态势。最新数据显示，截至2025年11月末，券商及资管子公司私募资管规模达 5.8万亿元，产品结构持续优化。大集合改造收官、公募牌照申请放缓后，券商转向练内功：量化、FOF、REITs、绿色投 资等细分策略齐头并进，差异化投研能力成为竞争新焦点。业内人士指出，在去通道、净值化背景下，谁能构建持续产生 超额收益的研究体系，谁就能在5.8万亿元 ...

更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 开年风格如何判断? 20260104 摘要 Q&A 2026 年 1 月 A 股市场风格的最新观点是什么? 基于四象限风格轮动模型,1月份在成长价值维度上暂时维持对价值风格占优的 判断,但略微向成长风格倾斜。从市场情绪来看,投资者对价值风格偏好较强, 而从市场状态(即风格动量)来看,成长风格略微占优。宏观指标则显示成长和 争 狗 - ● 量化策略综合评分显示,价值风格偏好减弱,但短期内价值风格可能仍占 优。大小盘方面,由看好大盘转为均衡偏小盘,小盘股或中小盘股短期内 可能略微占优,宏观环境和市场情绪是主要驱动因素。 资产配置方面,相对看好国内股票资产,对商品持中性态度,债券相对谨 ● 慎。宏观预期差角度对股票和商品持谨慎态度,对债券中性:左侧择时维 度对股票市场持乐观态度;技术面阻力支撑维度认为市场顶部存在一定阻 力。 行业轮动模型显示目前处于快速轮动状态,12月模型持仓行业跑输基准 . 0.7%,但 2025年全年组合收益率跑赢基准 11 个百分点。2026年 1 月推 荐行业包括银行、建材、计算机。综合金融、煤炭及综合。 紧急积极成长型策略表现最忧 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the increasing value of quantitative and CTA strategies in a volatile market environment, where traditional investment approaches may struggle to provide direction [2][3][15] Group 2 - Recent market fluctuations are attributed more to style switching rather than "quantitative crowding," indicating a shift in investor preferences from high-volatility growth stocks to stable cash flow and low-volatility investments [5][15] - The performance of various style factors shows that growth and volatility factors have been strong, while large-cap and liquidity factors have weakened, suggesting a broader market de-concentration and a response to macroeconomic variables [5][15] Group 3 - The rising expectations of interest rate hikes in Japan are identified as a significant driver of global market volatility, impacting carry trades and increasing risk premiums in Asian assets [6][15] - Quantitative strategies and CTA strategies are positioned to benefit structurally from these changes, as they can adapt quickly to rising funding costs and currency fluctuations [7][8][15] Group 4 - The article highlights the performance of private equity funds, noting that those with higher Sharpe ratios and lower drawdown characteristics are more suitable for core portfolio allocation during turbulent market conditions [15]

Core Insights - The chairman of Yuanda Information Technology Co., Ltd., Hao Xu, discussed the company's future technological innovations and business layout at the 2025 Analyst Conference, emphasizing the importance of financial engineering research and the transformation of research results into quantitative strategies and software tools to continuously serve investors [1][2] - The company plans to increase investment in AI quantitative core competitiveness, focusing on building large models in vertical fields and deepening intelligent applications [1] - Yuanda Information has established a dedicated AI application team to integrate general large model technology with the financial sector, particularly in capital markets and the securities industry, aiming to create a proprietary large model for the securities industry [1] Group 1 - The company aims to enhance user experience through tool-based interaction upgrades, transitioning from traditional click-based stock software to voice interaction and natural language processing for more intelligent and convenient user experiences [1] - Users will be able to query indices and stock performance through voice commands, allowing for complex inquiries such as identifying the top ten stocks in the best-performing sectors of the day [1] Group 2 - The company will explore the intelligent leap in quantitative strategy formulation, optimization, and automated trading execution based on large models, promoting a higher degree of automation and intelligence in investment research and trading processes [2] - This initiative represents not only an extension of technical capabilities but also a systematic reconstruction of traditional quantitative research and investment models [2] - Yuanda Information will continue to drive innovation through a "technology + finance" dual approach, focusing on the integration of AI and quantitative methods to provide smarter and more efficient decision support and service experiences for investors [2]

Group 1 - The total number of billion-dollar private equity firms remains at 90 as of July 2025, with a notable increase in quantitative firms to 44, marking a historical high, while subjective firms decreased to 39 [1][2] - The average return for the 55 billion-dollar private equity firms with performance data reached 16.60%, with quantitative firms outperforming subjective firms, achieving a full profit status [1][4] - The distribution of billion-dollar private equity firms is concentrated in major cities, with Shanghai having 39 firms, Beijing 24, and Shenzhen 6 [3] Group 2 - The quantitative private equity sector is expanding, now comprising 49% of the billion-dollar firms, indicating a shift in strategy focus within the industry [2] - Among the 42 billion-dollar private equity firms with returns exceeding 10%, 32 are quantitative, highlighting their strong performance compared to subjective firms [4] - The average return for 16 billion-dollar subjective private equity firms is 13.59%, with a significant portion achieving positive returns, but the performance gap between quantitative and subjective firms is widening [5]

Core Insights - The A-share market has shown a trend of steady upward movement this year, with multiple sectors experiencing gains and market confidence gradually recovering [1][2] - Quantitative private equity funds have significantly outperformed subjective private equity funds, with an average return of 18.92% for 36 billion quantitative private equity funds by the end of July [1][2][3] - The number of billion quantitative private equity funds is increasing, with 44 out of 90 billion private equity funds being quantitative, representing nearly 49% of the total [2] Performance Comparison - Among the 42 billion private equity funds with returns exceeding 10%, 32 are quantitative, 9 are subjective, and 1 is mixed [2] - The average return for 16 billion subjective private equity funds is 13.59%, with 93.75% achieving positive returns [3] Reasons for Quantitative Strength - The high volatility of small and medium-cap stocks allows quantitative strategies to capture trading errors effectively [4] - The overall market liquidity is robust, with daily trading volumes consistently above 1 trillion, and significant net inflows from individual investors since October of last year [4] - There are numerous opportunities related to thematic concepts, particularly around artificial intelligence, which are concentrated in small and medium-cap stocks [4] Market Trust in Quantitative Strategies - The effectiveness of quantitative strategies has been recognized, especially in volatile markets, leading to increased allocation from institutional and high-net-worth clients [6] - Improved market liquidity and the growing number of quantitative professionals are strengthening the foundation of the industry [6] - The upward trend in the proportion of quantitative trading is expected to continue, driven by technological advancements and the increasing demand for risk control and stable returns [6]

Group 1 - The hedge fund industry had a strong start in the first half of 2025, with portfolio managers successfully navigating market volatility to achieve stable returns [2] - The average return for hedge funds in the first half of 2025 was 5.1%, which is still lower than the nearly 9% return of a 60/40 investment portfolio [3] - Long-term annualized returns for hedge funds since 2020 reached 9.4%, outperforming the 6.5% return of a 60/40 portfolio [4] Group 2 - Quantitative strategies outperformed in the first half of the year, with significant inflows of capital, while stock long/short strategies benefited from market rebounds in recent months [5][6] - CTA and systematic macro strategies performed poorly, with the average return being negative, highlighting the challenges faced by trend-following strategies in a volatile market [7][8] Group 3 - There was a notable increase in interest from investors to increase their exposure to hedge funds, with a net inflow equivalent to 1.3% of assets under management in the first half of 2025 [9][24] - The demand for active long-term stock investment strategies has risen, while interest in passive long-term strategies has decreased significantly [18][19] Group 4 - The biotechnology sector faced significant challenges, with a drastic decline in investor demand and performance, marking it as the worst-performing sector in the first half of the year [14][15] - The healthcare and biotechnology industries are experiencing a period of turmoil, influenced by regulatory changes and market dynamics, leading to a substantial drop in investor interest [15][16] Group 5 - The TMT sub-industry performed well within stock long/short strategies, achieving an average return of 7.0% in the first half of 2025, driven by the ongoing AI boom [22][23] - Investors are increasingly cautious about geopolitical tensions and their impact on market stability, leading to a preference for traditional macro strategies that can hedge against market risks [12]

Core Insights - The ninth AI & FOF Investment Innovation Development Forum was successfully held in Shanghai, focusing on the innovative development opportunities for FOF and quantitative investment in the AI era [1] Group 1: Private Equity and Market Trends - The private equity industry is expected to maintain a scale of over 5 trillion yuan, with a potential recovery to 6 trillion yuan by the end of the year [2] - Leading institutions are making comprehensive investments in AI, which is anticipated to empower various investment research scenarios and potentially deliver excess returns for investors [2] Group 2: AI and Quantitative Investment - The advent of large models is transforming the quantitative investment landscape, with AI redefining core processes rather than merely optimizing existing ones [2] - AI is seen as a significant tool for enhancing decision-making quality, although it cannot fully replace experienced investment managers [3] Group 3: Investment Strategies and Methodologies - The FOF investment sector is still in the process of forming its investment methodologies, which are crucial for its development [3] - Wealth management requires diverse and tailored approaches, suggesting that FOF investment logic must continuously evolve [3] Group 4: Performance of Quantitative Strategies - Quantitative strategies have shown impressive excess returns this year, attributed to proactive scale control and increased trading activity in the A-share market [5] - The small-cap effect in the A-share market provides substantial alpha extraction opportunities for quantitative models, although liquidity management remains a core challenge [5]