炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：中欧基金 这是 中欧长谈第一季 · 对话价值派 第三期嘉宾 中欧价值派基金经理 · 吉翔 2013年,一家开在大学旁的小店和一辆繁忙的自行车,开启 了吉翔商业认知的起点 -- 没有平台,没有捷径,只有一份份 亲手送达的订单。正是这段经历,让他触摸到生意最真实的 脉搏:现金流、供应链、客户需求,也让他读懂了价值投资最 精华的智慧:买股票就是买公司。 因为做过生意,所以更懂好生意的可贵 "用便宜或合理的价格买好公司", 成为了吉翔清晰且坚定的投资信仰。 次序即哲学 "先商业模式,然后估值", 吉翔在实践中慢慢构建出自己的投资"审美"。 何为好生意? 在吉翔眼中,好的商业模式不仅在于"强",更在于"简"。 "需求持续稳定 + 供给强者恒强",是其审美的核心;简单 的商业模式,对他来说意味着更强的经营韧性 -- 商业模式 越简单,公司所依赖的宏观假设、政策变量与管理能力就越 />。 何为好价格? 当好生意因市场的短期分歧而被错误定价,便是吉翔眼中 "一眼定胖瘦"的时刻。他坦言自己更喜欢熊市 -- 因为恐 惧,往往是市场最好的报价单。 在这 ...

12月16日，由中国酒业协会指导、五粮液股份公司主办的五粮液"家有老酒"2025年度盛会在宜宾举行。 创新体验，五粮液的老酒"三重奏" 不同于往年的单纯庆典，本次盛会上，五粮液不仅汇聚了全国的老酒爱好者，更通过老酒独有的"稀缺性"与"体验感"，展现出头部酒企在行业变局中的思考 与行动。 逆势增长，老酒市场的"抗跌"逻辑 据京东超市联合中国酒业协会发布《2025年京东超市陈年白酒消费趋势报告》，中国老酒市场规模已从2017年的370亿元增长至如今的超1300亿元，并有望 在未来五年突破1500亿元。在新酒市场陷入存量竞争之时，老酒市场却表现出极强的韧性，形成了一种反直觉的现象。 细究这一现象根源，在于老酒构建了一套区别于新酒的独立价值体系。 首先，时间带来的自然消耗与不可再生性，使老酒成为具有稀缺属性的"藏品"；其次，陈化过程赋予酒体更醇和的口感和更丰富的风味，使得老酒具有不可 替代的饮用价值；最后，老酒往往承载文化记忆与情感联结，具备超越物质层面的情感溢价。这三重逻辑，共同支撑了老酒市场的增长。 "产业的喧嚣终将归于平静，真正经得起时间检验的，唯有品质与文化。这恰恰是陈年酒给予产业的最大启示。"中国酒业协会理 ...

RT Aden (@AdenDRInWeb3)一些和Yuyue老师 @yuyue_chris 随机学习的takeaway：一、要关注更多个人主权相关的东西，积极地去做创造者而非消费者，这样才能够逐渐地增加自己在真实生活中的影响力；人们做很多事情，底层其实也是为了这个目的。二、时间不值钱——因为我们的时间并不总是在变现、能变现，而不能／没有在变现的时间就是不值钱的。（这是我个人觉得格外真实且sharp的一条。）三、没法用仓位验证的认知都不是真的。四、牌可以不打，但是不可以没有。比如发推可以不发自拍，但是不能不关注线下的形象。“以貌取人”就是最简单直白的判断手段，和人交互的时候不要提高别人的判断成本，也不要上来就降低别人想了解你的欲望。但又很有趣的是，发自拍拿到流量和注意力的同时，也容易被贴上标签；某些刻板印象会增加别人了解你真实水平的成本。五、搞钱当成游戏玩会带来乐趣，但是前提是先得玩上。之后还要不断复盘练习，就好比用错题集来规避犯过的错误，才能逐渐提高成绩。换言之，需要持续修行。对应原推：https://t.co/KSp1EC9uJK六、做任何事情都需要有目标，而有了目标之后就可以通过逐步拆解，用SOP的思路 ...

Core Insights - The essence of evaluating companies lies not only in their current size but also in their potential for future growth, emphasizing the importance of patience and long-term vision in investment decisions [1][11][14] Group 1: Company Growth and Potential - Companies that appear small today may have significant growth potential, similar to how a small tree can grow rapidly once its roots are established [1][4] - The journey of small suppliers becoming essential industry players illustrates that today's position does not dictate tomorrow's status, highlighting the importance of consistent improvement and focus [4][12] - Time can transform small advantages into significant competitive edges, as seen in the case of TSMC, which evolved from a chip manufacturer to a critical player in the global semiconductor industry [4][12] Group 2: Challenges and Resilience - The departure of founding teams can leave companies as mere "shells," losing critical knowledge and relationships that are not documented but essential for success [6][12] - Companies must have reserves not only in finances but also in technology and talent to withstand challenging periods, as demonstrated by Huawei's ability to endure external pressures [9][12] - Learning and adapting during stagnation periods is crucial, as shown by BYD's development of a complete supply chain during its early losses [9][12] Group 3: Strategic Focus and Talent Management - Successful companies convert individual expertise into organizational knowledge, ensuring that even with personnel changes, the company maintains its competitive edge [9][12] - Stability and passion within the team are vital for long-term success, as companies led by founders who view their business as a mission rather than just a profit-making tool tend to thrive [12][14] Group 4: The Value of Time - Understanding the value of time in business is essential; some processes require patience, akin to aging wine, where quality cannot be rushed [12][14] - Companies that can endure and focus on long-term goals, rather than seeking immediate gains, are likely to achieve greater success in a fast-paced market [14]

Core Insights - The article discusses the decision-making process between choosing a pension payout versus a lump sum cash-out, emphasizing the importance of calculating the break-even age to determine the most financially advantageous option [3][4]. Group 1: Pension vs. Lump Sum - The choice between a monthly pension payout of $100 and a lump sum of $24,000 hinges on life expectancy, with a break-even age calculated at 85 if starting at 65 [3][4]. - If an individual expects to live beyond the break-even age, the monthly checks are recommended for their stability, while the lump sum offers flexibility for investment or immediate use [4]. Group 2: Financial Considerations - The time value of money is a crucial factor, indicating that a dollar today is worth more than a dollar in the future due to potential investment growth [5]. - Assuming a 5% annual return on investments, the lump sum option significantly outperforms the monthly payments over time, taking nearly 78 years for the smaller monthly payments to catch up to the growth of the initial investment [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article aims to explain key technical indicators used in options trading, including intrinsic value, time value, implied volatility, and historical volatility, to help new traders understand price movements and trading strategies [1][3]. Intrinsic Value - Intrinsic value is defined as the profit a buyer can make if the option is exercised at the current moment. For call options, it is calculated as the stock price minus the strike price, while for put options, it is the strike price minus the stock price [3][4]. - Examples illustrate that a call option with a strike price of 20 and a stock price of 25 has an intrinsic value of 5, making it an in-the-money option, while a put option in the same scenario has an intrinsic value of 0, categorizing it as out-of-the-money [3][6]. Time Value - Time value represents the potential for an option to increase in value before expiration, even if it currently has no intrinsic value. The longer the time until expiration, the higher the time value, making the option more expensive [8][10]. - An example shows that a call option with a longer expiration period (176 days) has a higher price (3.7) compared to a shorter one (85 days) due to increased time value [10][11]. Historical Volatility - Historical volatility measures the annualized standard deviation of stock price returns over the past month, indicating how much the stock price has fluctuated historically. A higher historical volatility suggests greater price instability [12]. Implied Volatility - Implied volatility reflects the market's expectations of future price fluctuations based on current option prices. It is a critical factor in determining option pricing, with higher implied volatility leading to higher option prices [14][15]. - The article emphasizes that implied volatility is subjective and can vary slightly across different options for the same underlying asset, influenced by market sentiment and trading activity [22][23]. Relationship Between Implied and Historical Volatility - Traders should compare implied volatility with historical volatility to assess market sentiment. A significantly higher implied volatility may indicate market exuberance or anticipated events that could affect stock prices, while a lower implied volatility suggests stability [24][25]. Conclusion - The article concludes that while technical indicators like implied and historical volatility are useful, investment decisions should primarily rely on fundamental analysis. The complexity of the market cannot be fully captured by a few indicators, and traders should be cautious of making decisions based solely on these metrics [26].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the complexity of options trading, highlighting various market trends and strategies involved in trading options [1][2][4]. Group 2 - The main trends in the options market include: - Trend Up: Continuous rise in the price of the underlying asset [2] - Trend Down: Continuous decline in the price of the underlying asset [2] - Range-Bound: Price fluctuations within a narrow range without a clear trend [2] - High Volatility: Significant price fluctuations without a defined direction [2] - Low Volatility: Minimal price fluctuations with slow price changes [2] Group 3 - Key options trading strategies include: - Call Options: Granting the holder the right to buy futures contracts at a specified price when the market price exceeds the strike price [4] - Put Options: Granting the holder the right to sell futures contracts at a specified price when the market price falls below the strike price [4] - Selling Call Options: The seller takes on the obligation to sell futures contracts at an agreed price if the buyer exercises the option [4] - Selling Put Options: The seller takes on the obligation to buy futures contracts at an agreed price if the buyer exercises the option [4] Group 4 - The article emphasizes the importance of risk and return characteristics associated with each option direction, suggesting that investors should consider market conditions and personal risk tolerance when choosing strategies [5]. - Spread strategies, such as bull spreads and bear spreads, are highlighted as methods to manage risk and reduce costs by buying and selling options with different strike prices [6][7]. Group 5 - The impact of time on options trading is discussed, focusing on the concept of "time value," which diminishes as the expiration date approaches [9]. - Buyers of options must consider both the direction and the speed of price movements, as time decay can erode potential profits [9]. - Sellers of options benefit from time decay, as they can earn premiums if the options expire worthless [9]. Group 6 - Options are defined as financial contracts that give the holder the right to buy or sell an underlying asset at a predetermined price within a specific timeframe [10]. - The buyer's maximum loss is limited to the premium paid, while the seller's maximum gain is the premium received, with theoretically unlimited risk [10].

Group 1 - L Catterton led an $800 million investment in Flexjet, acquiring a 20% stake, while Flexjet's parent company, Directional Aviation Capital, retains control [1][3] - The investment reflects the luxury industry's expansion into the experience economy, driven by increasing spending from affluent consumers in travel, dining, and special events [1][3] - Despite a projected 2% decline in global luxury goods sales to €363 billion in 2024, luxury hotels are expected to grow by 4%, high-end dining by 8%, and yacht and private jet sales by 13% [1] Group 2 - Flexjet, headquartered in Cleveland, offers fractional ownership and leasing services with a fleet of 318 aircraft, expected to grow to 340 by the end of 2025, and has over 2,000 members [3] - The investment will primarily fund infrastructure expansion, including the purchase of larger long-range aircraft and the establishment of maintenance facilities overseas, with about 25% of the proceeds allocated for special dividends to shareholders [3] - Flexjet differentiates itself through partnerships with brands like Belmond, Ferretti Yachts, and Bentley, focusing on bespoke experiences rather than becoming the largest player in the industry [3] Group 3 - L Catterton, which holds 40% of its shares from LVMH and the Arnault family office, manages $37 billion in consumer brand equity capital, with a portfolio that includes brands like Birkenstock and Etro [4] - The investment signifies the luxury industry's emphasis on the "value of time," with Flexjet's CEO highlighting the potential of private travel to save time as a key direction for future luxury definitions [4] - Flexjet's EBITDA is projected to reach $398 million in 2024, increasing to $425 million in 2025, more than doubling since 2020 [4]

Core Insights - Stock index futures serve as a key to unlock diverse investment opportunities, providing investors with a dimension beyond individual stocks and injecting new vitality into strategy innovation [1][4] - They break the traditional mindset of "only going long," allowing for a better understanding of both long and short operations, thus broadening investment strategies even during market downturns [1][4] - Experienced investors utilize stock index futures to create a complementary risk-return structure in their portfolios, smoothing volatility during market fluctuations and amplifying returns during trends [1][4] Investment Learning and Strategy - Stock index futures enhance the learning experience by providing a layered understanding, from basic contract rules to complex cross-period arbitrage, helping to build a more comprehensive knowledge system [3][4] - They offer unique insights into market sentiment through changes in positions and basis fluctuations, allowing for more precise investment decisions compared to merely observing index movements [3][4] - Engaging with peers in strategy design related to stock index futures fosters innovative thinking, breaking conventional thought patterns and enabling more flexible tool application [3][4] Market Maturity and Evolution - The development of stock index futures reflects market maturity, with expansion of varieties and optimization of rules, encouraging investors to keep pace with innovations and enhance their mastery of financial instruments [4] - Overall, stock index futures are valuable partners in advanced investing, expanding operational boundaries and promoting the enhancement of investors' comprehensive skills through practical experience [4]

Group 1 - The core idea of the article revolves around the transformation of organizational paradigms in response to changes in both technological and institutional environments [1][8] - The first variable is the technological environment, where digital technology has created new scenarios for human activities, allowing interpersonal interactions and self-awareness to contribute to economic activities [3][4] - The second variable is the institutional environment, which emphasizes that organizations are shaped not only by technology but also by institutional constraints that dictate their survival [8][10] Group 2 - The shift in time value due to technological advancements has altered perceptions of wealth production and work orientation, leading to generational differences in values and work attitudes [5][7] - The new organizational landscape is characterized by a "symbiotic existence," where organizations must adapt to a collaborative evolution mechanism rather than a competitive one [13][20] - The concept of "shared ideology" within organizations is crucial, as it shapes behavior and influences the collective memory and categorization of individuals within the organization [26][27] Group 3 - The new organizational paradigm, termed "symbiotic ideology," emphasizes mutual subjectivity, co-creation of value, and overall evolution among stakeholders [28][29] - The formal definition of organizations is undergoing a fundamental change, shifting from profit maximization to meaning maximization, and from internal boundaries to external collaboration [29][30] - The social construction of organizations is evolving towards interdependence and the strength of symbiosis, reflecting the need for organizations to adapt to societal changes [31][32]