1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The exemption of tariffs on imported refined copper in the US will significantly change the global copper trade flow in the second half of the year, with copper resources shifting to non - US markets. The supply - demand fundamentals of Shanghai copper are expected to become looser [4]. - The zinc market shows a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand, with imports and processing fees rising, and downstream demand weakening [5]. - The aluminum industry chain is in a weak market sentiment. Aluminum, alumina, and recycled aluminum alloy are all recommended to be treated with a short - selling mindset [6]. - The tin price is suppressed by the correction of the non - ferrous sector, with weak fundamentals [7]. - The lead price is under pressure in the short term, and attention should be paid to the driving force of the peak season and macro - orientation [8][9]. - The nickel market has an overall oversupply pattern, and the stainless steel market is affected by the black series and the weakness of nickel, with both supply and demand being weak [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operating Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous sector fluctuates with the profit - taking in the domestic anti - involution stage. The trade situation is gradually becoming clear, and the non - ferrous metals are in a weak adjustment stage. Key events this week include Sino - US trade negotiations, the Fed's interest rate decision, and important economic data releases [13][14][15]. - **Investment Recommendations for Each Metal** - **Copper**: The supply - demand fundamentals are expected to be loose. It is recommended to buy on dips, with a support range of 77,000 - 78,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 80,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton [4][16]. - **Zinc**: Supply increases while demand is weak. It is recommended to go short on rallies, with a support range of 21,600 - 21,800 and a pressure range of 22,800 - 23,100 [5][18]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The market sentiment is weak. Short - selling is recommended for aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, with corresponding support and pressure ranges [6][18]. - **Tin**: The fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to hold short positions, with a support range of 250,000 - 255,000 and a pressure range of 270,000 - 290,000 [7][18]. - **Lead**: It is in a range - bound state. It is recommended to wait and see, with a support range of 16,600 - 16,800 and a pressure range of 17,200 - 17,400 [9][19]. - **Nickel**: The supply is in an oversupply pattern. It is recommended to go short on rallies, with a support range of 115,000 - 116,000 and a pressure range of 122,000 - 123,000 [10][19]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is in a weak supply - demand situation. It is recommended to be short - biased, with a support range of 12,300 - 12,400 and a pressure range of 12,800 - 13,000 [10][19]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - **Futures Closing Prices and Price Changes**: Copper closed at 78,040 with a decline of 1.13%; zinc at 22,345 with a decline of 1.43%; aluminum at 20,510 with a decline of 0.56%; alumina at 3222 with a decline of 3.13%; tin at 265,290 with a decline of 0.96%; lead at 16,735 with a decline of 0.92%; nickel at 119,830 with a decline of 1.55%; stainless steel at 12,805 with a decline of 0.89%; and cast aluminum alloy at 19,950 with a decline of 0.60% [20][21]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The report provides the latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector, including the net long - short position changes and the influence of different forces on various varieties [23]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The report presents the spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals, such as copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lead, and cast aluminum alloy [24][26]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - The report includes various charts related to the industry chain of each metal, such as inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends, which help to understand the supply - demand relationship and market conditions of each metal [27][31][33]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - The report provides charts on the arbitrage relationships of various non - ferrous metals, such as the ratio of domestic and foreign prices, basis, and spreads between different contracts [57][60][62]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - The report includes charts related to the options of various non - ferrous metals, such as historical volatility, implied volatility, trading volume, and open interest [74][75][77].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US copper tariff policy has increased market volatility, and the current policy remains uncertain, with price volatility risks still present. The production of refined copper in China is expected to remain high in July, and the inventory is expected to be relatively stable. The performance of SHFE copper is expected to be stronger than that of LME copper [2]. - The domestic commodity market sentiment remains strong, but there is uncertainty in overseas trade. The inventory of aluminum ingots remains low, but the supply of aluminum ingots is expected to increase, and the inventory accumulation in July is expected to be higher than last year, which will resist the upward movement of aluminum prices [4]. - The supply of primary lead remains high, while the supply of recycled lead is tight. The price of lead - acid batteries has stabilized, and the overall lead price shows a relatively strong trend, but the increase in SHFE lead is expected to be limited due to weak domestic consumption [5]. - The supply of zinc ore remains high, and the expectation of zinc ingot production increase is strong. The inventory accumulation has accelerated, and the zinc price is under downward pressure [6]. - The short - term supply of tin ore is in short supply, but the downstream's acceptance of high - priced raw materials is limited. The tin price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range [7][8]. - The main contradiction in the nickel market lies in the stainless - steel production line. The demand for stainless steel is weak, and the nickel price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to short on rallies [9]. - The price of lithium carbonate has rebounded, but the supply - demand relationship has not changed significantly, and the upside space is limited [11]. - The alumina production capacity is in excess, and the futures price is expected to be anchored by cost. It is recommended to short on rallies [14]. - It is the traditional off - season for stainless - steel consumption, and the supply - demand imbalance is difficult to reverse in the short term, and the spot market is expected to remain weak [16]. - The supply and demand of cast aluminum alloy are both weak, and the futures price is under pressure due to the large basis between futures and spot and the expected limited increase in aluminum prices [18]. 3. Summary by Metals Copper - **Price**: LME copper slightly decreased by 0.05% to $9660/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 78330 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory increased by 4625 tons to 107125 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 0.2 to 2.1 million tons [2]. - **Market**: The domestic spot import loss narrowed, the Yangshan copper premium rebounded, and the scrap - to - refined copper price difference decreased [2]. Aluminum - **Price**: LME aluminum rose 0.97% to $2602/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20685 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: LME aluminum inventory increased by 0.6 million tons to 39.1 million tons, and SHFE aluminum futures warehouse receipts increased by 0.06 to 4.8 million tons. The three - place aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.65 million tons [4]. - **Market**: The domestic spot is at a discount, and the trading atmosphere has improved [4]. Lead - **Price**: SHFE lead index rose 0.07% to 17180 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose to $2048.5/ton [5]. - **Inventory**: SHFE lead futures inventory was 5.06 million tons, and LME lead inventory was 25.81 million tons [5]. - **Market**: The refined - to - scrap lead price difference was 50 yuan/ton, and the overall lead price showed a relatively strong trend [5]. Zinc - **Price**: SHFE zinc index rose 0.36% to 22064 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose to $2720/ton [6]. - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 0.9 million tons, and LME zinc inventory was 10.85 million tons [6]. - **Market**: The domestic social inventory slightly increased, and the zinc price was under downward pressure [6]. Tin - **Price**: On July 9, 2025, SHFE tin main contract closed at 262920 yuan/ton, down 1.00% [7]. - **Inventory**: SHFE futures registered warehouse receipts decreased by 4 tons to 6738 tons, and LME inventory increased by 75 tons to 2060 tons [7]. - **Market**: The supply of tin ore is short - term tight, and the downstream consumption is in the off - season. The tin price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range [7][8]. Nickel - **Price**: SHFE nickel main contract closed at 119420 yuan/ton, down 0.19%, and LME nickel main contract closed at $15000/ton, down 0.10% [9]. - **Market**: The demand for stainless steel is weak, the nickel - iron price has decreased, and the nickel price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: The MMLC spot index rose 0.53%, and the LC2509 contract rose 0.81% [11]. - **Market**: The price of lithium carbonate has rebounded, but the upside space is limited due to unchanged supply - demand relationship [11]. Alumina - **Price**: On July 9, 2025, the alumina index rose 0.65% to 3110 yuan/ton [13]. - **Inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 1.86 million tons [13]. - **Market**: The alumina production capacity is in excess, and the futures price is expected to be anchored by cost [14]. Stainless Steel - **Price**: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12770 yuan/ton, up 0.55% [16]. - **Inventory**: The futures inventory decreased by 120 tons, and the social inventory decreased to 115.68 million tons, with the 300 - series inventory decreasing by 1.64% [16]. - **Market**: It is the off - season for consumption, and the supply - demand imbalance is difficult to reverse in the short term [16]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price**: The AD2511 contract closed down 0.1% to 19830 yuan/ton [18]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in three places increased to 2.45 million tons [18]. - **Market**: The supply and demand are both weak, and the futures price is under pressure [18].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the mixed performance in the non-ferrous metals market, influenced by supply and demand factors [1] - Copper prices in Shanghai rose to 78,415 yuan, with a narrowing premium in both Shanghai and Guangdong [1] - The aluminum market showed a decline, with an increase in inventory by 15,000 tons, indicating early signs of seasonal demand weakness [1] Group 2 - The market is experiencing significant divergence, with concerns over supply disruptions easing following a ceasefire in Israel and Palestine [1] - The aluminum and casting aluminum alloy price gap remains large, while the price difference between AL_2511 and AD2511 is only around 400 yuan, suggesting potential trading opportunities [1] - Zinc supply continues to recover, but demand remains weak, leading to a bearish outlook for the zinc market despite recent price rebounds [1]