本周锌价震荡，LME锌0-3M升水增至224美金。供应端，国产和进口TC加速下滑。四季度至明年一季度国产矿边际走 紧，冬储临近，国内冶炼厂内卷矿库存较严重，目前利润尚可，需关注硫酸价格和白银价格的走势对总利润的影响。11 月，火烧云锌锭正式投产(月产量预计在8k-1wt)，其他冶炼厂增量有限，12月多数冶炼厂检修环比预计下滑1万吨以 上。需求端，内需季节性疲软;海外，欧洲需求一般。国内社库震荡下行，海外LE库存去化，升水再次上扬;当前外强内 弱格局下出口窗口已打开，海外已出现部分交仓情况。策略方面，锌国内基本面现实较差，但年底供应端存阶段性减 量，价格重心或较难深跌。短期宏观不确定性增强情况下单边建议观望为主;内外方面，关注反套机会;月差方面，建议 关注01-03的正套机会。 镍 ： 日期 1.5菲律宾镍矿 高镍铁 沪镍现货 金川升贴水 俄镍升贴水 2025/11/24 57.0 - 119900 4350 500 2025/11/25 57.0 - 119500 4450 500 2025/11/26 57.0 - 120450 4650 400 2025/11/27 57.0 - 119150 4650 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers specific investment suggestions for each metal variety: - **Copper**: Try to gradually buy on dips for Shanghai copper futures, with a short - term upside pressure range of 89,000 - 90,000 yuan/ton and a downside support range of 84,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton. Consider selling near - month slightly out - of - the - money put options [4]. - **Zinc**: Consider buying on dips and selling out - of - the - money put options. The upside pressure is around 22,800 - 23,000, and the short - term downside support is around 22,300 - 22,400 [5]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Hold long positions for Shanghai aluminum, with an upside pressure range of 21,800 - 22,000 and a downside support range of 20,800 - 21,000. Consider buying out - of - the - money put options for protection. For alumina, adopt a wait - and - see approach, with an upside pressure range of 3,000 - 3,200 and a downside support range of 2,600 - 2,700. For recycled aluminum alloy, take a bullish view, with an upside pressure range of 21,500 - 22,000 and a downside support range of 20,500 - 20,800 [6]. - **Tin**: Adopt a bullish view on range - bound fluctuations. The upside pressure range is 290,000 - 300,000, and the downside support range is 260,000 - 270,000. Consider buying out - of - the money put options for protection [7]. - **Lead**: Continue to use the strategy of selling both call and put options in a wide - range. The short - term downside support is around 17,300 - 17,400, and the upside pressure is around 17,500 - 17,600 [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: For nickel, consider selling out - of - the money put options and pay attention to whether the volatility rebounds from a low level. The upside pressure is around 120,000 - 121,000 yuan, and the downside support is around 118,000 - 120,000 yuan. For stainless steel, it is in a range - bound consolidation. The support level is around 12,400 - 12,500, and the upside pressure is around 12,800 - 13,000 [9]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall upward - trending pattern of the non - ferrous metal sector remains unchanged. The expectation of the end of the US government shutdown boosts market risk appetite, and China's PPI turning positive for the first time also drives the rebound of industrial products. Non - ferrous metals show a fluctuating recovery [12]. - In the short term, risk assets were under pressure last week due to the economic slowdown in the US and China and the tightening of US dollar liquidity. However, after the US Senate passed a temporary appropriation bill, market risk appetite increased, and the tightness of US dollar liquidity is expected to ease. China's inflation data in October improved, and the Shanghai copper market rebounded during the day [4]. - In the medium - to - long term, the siphon effect of the US market still exists, making it difficult to solve the structural contradiction of global copper inventory. China's fixed - asset investment growth rate turned negative in the first three quarters, and external pressure is uncertain. In the fourth quarter, the macro - level is expected to take further measures to boost copper demand. With the increase in smelter maintenance and the tightening of raw material supply, China's electrolytic copper production is expected to decline continuously in the fourth quarter. As copper demand enters the seasonal peak season, China's copper inventory is expected to continue to decline, and the copper price center is expected to rise [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - Ferrous Metal Operation Logic and Investment Suggestions - **Macro Logic**: The overall upward - trending pattern of the non - ferrous metal sector remains unchanged. The possible end of the US government shutdown and China's PPI turning positive boost market risk appetite. Copper, aluminum, and tin are relatively strong, alumina has a strong willingness to rebound, lead and zinc are rising slowly, and nickel and stainless steel are bottom - grinding. Pay attention to the fundamental resonance driving changes [12]. - **This Week's Focus**: Pay attention to China's retail sales, real estate development investment, and social financing data. Also, pay attention to whether the US government shutdown situation changes and whether CPI and PPI data are released as scheduled [12]. - **Variety Strategies**: Each metal variety has its own supply - demand situation, price range, and investment strategies, as detailed in the investment rating section above [4][5][6][7][8][9]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - Ferrous Metal Market Review - Copper closed at 86,480 yuan with a 0.63% increase; zinc closed at 22,670 yuan with a 0.22% decrease; aluminum closed at 21,725 yuan with a 0.46% increase; alumina closed at 2,829 yuan with a 1.65% increase; tin closed at 286,560 yuan with a 1.08% increase; lead closed at 17,505 yuan with a 0.49% increase; nickel closed at 119,680 yuan with a 0.20% increase; stainless steel closed at 12,605 yuan with a 0.32% increase; and cast aluminum alloy closed at 21,105 yuan with a 0.45% increase [16]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - Ferrous Metal Position Analysis - Different non - ferrous metal varieties have different net long - short positions and changes, affected by factors such as the increase of long - position main players, the decrease of short - position main players, and non - main - force capital influence [18]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - Ferrous Metal Spot Market - The spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lead, and cast aluminum alloy, are provided [19][21]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - Ferrous Metal Industry Chain - For each metal variety, there are corresponding charts showing inventory changes, processing fees, price trends, etc., such as copper's exchange inventory change and copper concentrate refining fee; zinc's inventory change and zinc concentrate processing fee change; etc. [24][27] 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - Ferrous Metal Arbitrage - There are charts showing the arbitrage - related data of each metal variety, such as copper's Shanghai - London ratio change and the premium - discount between Shanghai copper and London copper; zinc's Shanghai - London ratio change and LME zinc spot premium - discount; etc. [56][57] 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - Ferrous Metal Options - There are charts showing the option - related data of each metal variety, such as copper's option historical volatility and weighted implied volatility; zinc's historical volatility and option weighted implied volatility; etc. [72][74]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed has entered a new round of interest - rate cut cycles, with two more rate - cut expectations this year, and the US dollar index still has room to decline. The current expansion of the US manufacturing industry may be a preventive rate cut, which is positive for copper prices. Although there is a continuous accumulation of domestic social copper inventories, downstream demand is expected to pick up during the peak season, and it is recommended to go long on copper at low prices. [4] - Zinc is in a weak and volatile consolidation. The pressure level is adjusted downwards, and attention should be paid to the opening of the export window and the improvement of demand. [5] - The aluminum industry chain shows a sideways - oscillating trend. It is recommended to reduce short positions in aluminum, and maintain a strategy of short - selling on rebounds for alumina. For recycled aluminum alloy, it is also recommended to reduce short positions. [6] - Tin has a weak supply - demand pattern. It is recommended to take a short - long approach and pay attention to the situation of the ore end and macro - impacts. [7] - Lead has recently seen a decrease in supply and an increase in demand, but the upward momentum has weakened. It is recommended to reduce long positions at high prices and consider an option double - selling strategy. [9] - For nickel and stainless steel, the impact of disturbances at the Indonesian ore end is limited. Nickel is in a volatile state, and stainless steel is in a narrow - range consolidation. It is recommended to pay attention to supply - demand changes and macro - resonance. [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Suggestions - **Macro Logic**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, starting a new round of rate - cut cycles. The market should continue to focus on economic data changes. The dollar has rebounded, and non - ferrous metals show volatility. Before the holiday, the demand for hedging and capital withdrawal in the market has increased, and the support from pre - holiday stockpiling for non - ferrous metals is weakening. [13] - **Investment Suggestions for Each Metal** - **Copper**: It is expected to strengthen in a volatile manner. The support range is 79000 - 80000 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 81000 - 82000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to go long at low prices. [4][15] - **Zinc**: It will fluctuate within a range. The support range is 21800 - 22000 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 22800 - 23000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see. [5][15] - **Aluminum Industry Chain** - **Aluminum**: It will oscillate and consolidate. The support range is 20200 - 20500 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 21300 - 21700 yuan/ton. It is recommended to reduce short positions. - **Alumina**: It will be weak in oscillation. The support range is 2700 - 2900 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 3500 - 3700 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short - sell on rebounds. - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy**: It will be strong in oscillation. The support range is 20000 - 20300 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 20800 - 21000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to reduce short positions. [6][15] - **Tin**: It will oscillate within a range. The support range is 260000 - 265000 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 280000 - 290000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see or take a short - long approach. [7][16] - **Lead**: It will fluctuate upwards in a range. The support range is 16800 - 17000 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 17400 - 17500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to go long at low prices. [9][17] - **Nickel**: It is expected to rise. The support range is 118000 - 120000 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 124000 - 125000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to go long at low prices in stages. [10][17] - **Stainless Steel**: It will oscillate and be bullish. The support range is 12700 - 12800 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 13000 - 13200 yuan/ton. It is recommended to go long at low prices. [10][17] 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - The closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are presented in the table. For example, copper closed at 79960 yuan/ton with a 0.05% increase, and zinc closed at 21860 yuan/ton with a 0.07% increase. [18] 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector shows the net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position differences, changes in net long and short positions, and influencing factors for different varieties such as polysilicon, gold, and industrial silicon. [20] 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - Spot prices and price changes of non - ferrous metals are provided, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, etc. For example, the Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper spot price is 80130 yuan/ton with a 0.04% increase. [23] 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - Charts related to the industry chain of each non - ferrous metal are presented, such as copper inventory changes, zinc inventory and processing fee changes, and aluminum inventory and price comparison charts. [24][27][30] 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - Charts for arbitrage analysis of various non - ferrous metals are provided, including copper's Shanghai - London ratio changes, zinc's Shanghai - London ratio changes, and the basis and spread analysis of other metals. [58][60][62] 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - Charts for option analysis of non - ferrous metals are presented, including copper's option historical volatility, zinc's option weighted implied volatility, and option trading volume and open - interest analysis of other metals. [76][79][82]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the non-ferrous metals industry, focusing on gold, copper, rare earths, aluminum, tin, and tungsten markets. Core Insights and Arguments Gold Market - The average gold price for the second half of the year is expected to be between $3,300 and $3,400, an increase from $3,200 in Q2 [2] - Factors supporting gold prices include: - The passage of the "Big and Beautiful" Act in the U.S., which increases national debt and weakens the dollar and U.S. Treasury credit [2] - Continued gold purchases by global central banks, with China's central bank increasing its gold holdings in June [2] - A rebound in gold ETF holdings, indicating investor expectations of a potential Fed rate cut in September [2] - Potential bearish factors for gold prices include the introduction of stablecoins and geopolitical events, but these have been largely priced in by the market [3] - Recommended companies to watch include Shandong Gold and Chifeng Jilong Gold [3] Copper Market - The copper market shows a balanced supply-demand situation, but the smelting sector faces pressure with current TC prices around -$45 [4] - Potential for smelting plant losses and production cuts could lead to higher copper prices, as seen in March 2024 when production cuts led to price increases [4] - U.S. inventory accumulation from non-U.S. regions is expected to support copper prices [4] - Recommended companies include Luoyang Molybdenum, Jiangxi Copper, and Western Mining [4] Rare Earth Market - Rare earth prices are expected to rise in the second half of the year due to tight global supply and China's export restrictions [5][6] - Demand from electric vehicles and renewable energy sectors is increasing [5] - Companies with resource advantages like Northern Rare Earth and Zhongke Sanhuan are expected to benefit from rising prices [6] - A price increase of 30% to 40% is anticipated in the rare earth market, with a focus on companies related to neodymium refining [8] Aluminum Market - The aluminum market faces oversupply pressures, with rising costs for alumina and electricity potentially impacting prices [7] - The Chinese government may intervene to stabilize market prices, limiting overall price volatility [7] Tin Market - Tin prices are expected to remain high due to limited global resources and strong demand from electronics [7] - However, macroeconomic downturns or the emergence of substitute materials could negatively impact tin prices [7] - Recommended companies include Yunnan Tin Company, Huaxi Silver, and Xingye Silver Tin [11] Tungsten Market - China's environmental regulations are improving supply-demand dynamics and supporting tungsten prices [7] - Growth in high-performance materials and military applications is expected to drive demand [7] - Recommended companies include Xiamen Tungsten and China Tungsten High-tech [7] Additional Important Insights - The overall non-ferrous metals market is influenced by geopolitical uncertainties, macroeconomic conditions, and regulatory changes in major producing countries [1][2][3] - The anticipated demand growth in electronic consumption is a critical factor for tin and other metals, with a focus on companies that can leverage these trends [11]