中央财办：明年中国完全有条件推动内需实现持续增长 编辑：姜莹 中新社北京12月16日电 中央财办有关负责人表示，明年中国完全有条件推动内需实现持续增长。 中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。上述负责人在会后接受媒体采访时指出，明年要把握消 费的结构性变化，从供需两侧发力提振消费。当前，中国正在从以商品消费为主转向商品消费和服务消 费并重，一些领域商品消费增速放缓，但文旅、养老、托育等服务消费需求旺盛。 负责人称，要以新需求引领新供给、以新供给创造新需求，促进供需更加适配。要制定实施城乡居民增 收计划，促进高质量充分就业，继续提高城乡居民基础养老金，持续提升居民消费能力。要扩大优质商 品和服务供给，大力发展消费新业态新模式新场景，培育壮大家政、旅居康养等万亿级消费新增长点。 要有效释放消费需求潜力，持续清理不合理限制措施，支持有条件地区推广中小学春秋假，把职工带薪 错峰休假落实到位。打造"购在中国"品牌，释放入境消费巨大增量空间。 负责人还表示，明年要着眼惠民生增后劲，推动投资止跌回稳。当前投资出现下滑，但中国在科技创 新、产业升级、基础设施、改善民生等方面还有不少短板弱项。 为此，要把投资于物和投 ...

Economic Outlook - China is expected to maintain an economic growth target of around 5% for 2026, consistent with 2025, reflecting the central government's focus on stabilizing growth and promoting recovery [1] Consumption - From January to October 2025, total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41.2 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.3%, showing a slowdown from a peak of 5% in May [2] - The job market is showing signs of recovery, with the urban unemployment rate dropping to 5.10% in October 2025, and is expected to approach 5.0% [2] - The retail sales growth for 2026 is projected to be around 4.20%, indicating a moderate recovery despite structural pressures [2] Investment - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) from January to October 2025 was 408.914 billion yuan, down 1.7% year-on-year, primarily due to a significant decline in infrastructure and real estate investment [3] - Infrastructure investment is expected to rebound significantly in 2026, with a projected growth rate of approximately 5.50% [3] - Manufacturing investment is anticipated to recover to a growth rate of around 5.55% in 2026, supported by improved capacity utilization [3] Real Estate - Real estate investment is at a historical low, slightly above levels during the public health crisis, primarily due to weak sales [4] - The year-on-year growth rate of housing prices is showing signs of marginal recovery, with new residential prices down 2.60% and second-hand prices down 5.40% in October 2025 [4] - The decline in real estate investment is expected to narrow to -10.65% in 2026 [4] Exports - Total exports from January to October 2025 reached 221.146 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.2%, despite uncertainties from U.S. tariff policies [5] - Exports to non-U.S. regions have shown strong growth, with significant increases to Africa (26.10%), the EU (7.50%), ASEAN (14.30%), and India (12.30%) [6] - The global economic recovery and potential easing of tariffs are expected to provide a more stable environment for exports in 2026 [5][6] Prices - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% year-on-year in October 2025, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.1% [7] - Both CPI and PPI are expected to improve, with PPI potentially turning positive in the first half of 2026 [7] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Fiscal policy is expected to remain proactive, with a projected deficit rate increase from 4% to 4.5% in 2026, alongside an increase in special bond issuance [8] - Monetary policy is anticipated to remain moderately loose, with potential interest rate cuts of 10-20 basis points in 2026 [8] Overall Economic Assessment - The Chinese economy is projected to achieve around 5% growth in 2026, supported by policy measures, external demand recovery, and improving price levels [9]

Core Insights - The article highlights the efforts of Sichuan Province in China to overcome adverse factors such as high temperatures and flooding, focusing on the acceleration of key project construction [1] - From January to July, 810 key provincial projects achieved an investment completion of 584.47 billion yuan, with an annual investment completion rate of 73.8% [1] Investment by Sector - Infrastructure projects: 280 projects completed an investment of 244.69 billion yuan, with a completion rate of 70.3% [1] - Industrial projects: 445 projects completed an investment of 310.1 billion yuan, with a completion rate of 76.9% [1] - Social and livelihood projects: 61 projects completed an investment of 21.16 billion yuan, with a completion rate of 74.1% [1] - Ecological and environmental protection projects: 24 projects completed an investment of 8.53 billion yuan, with a completion rate of 72.5% [1] Project Progress - Among the ongoing projects, 532 projects including Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport renovation and G5 Jingkun Expressway expansion completed an investment of 478.84 billion yuan, with a completion rate of 78.8% [1] - 215 new projects such as North Chemical Energy Chemical Park and Dixin Auto Parts Production Base are under construction as planned [1] Future Plans - The Sichuan Provincial Development and Reform Commission will continue to promote project initiatives, enhance lifecycle service management, and strive to increase tangible work output to support stable investment growth in the province [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's fixed asset investment grew by 1.6% year-on-year in the first seven months of the year, reflecting a decline compared to the first half of the year, but the pressure on investment growth is considered to be temporary [1][2] - The actual growth of fixed asset investment, excluding price factors, is around 4%-5%, indicating that the nominal growth rate decline is influenced by short-term factors such as extreme weather and a complex external environment [1] - Manufacturing investment showed a significant increase, with a year-on-year growth of 6.2% in the first seven months, outpacing the overall investment growth rate [1] Group 2 - Investment in key sectors, particularly in energy and green transition, has seen rapid growth, with solar, wind, nuclear, and hydropower investments collectively increasing by 21.9% year-on-year [2] - The overall investment scale in China continues to expand, and the investment structure is optimizing, with significant potential for future investment due to the gap in per capita capital stock compared to developed countries [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the current pressure on investment growth in China is temporary, and a comprehensive perspective is needed to understand the situation [1] - From January to July, fixed asset investment in China grew by 1.6% year-on-year, a decline compared to the first half of the year, with actual growth excluding price factors estimated at around 4% to 5% [1] - The decline in nominal investment growth is attributed to various factors, including extreme weather, complex external environments, intensified domestic competition, and a weakening of traditional industry investment momentum during the transition to new industries [1] Group 2 - Manufacturing investment showed rapid growth, with a year-on-year increase of 6.2% from January to July, significantly outpacing overall investment growth [2] - Investment in high-end industries increased, with aerospace and equipment manufacturing up by 33.9%, computer and office equipment manufacturing by 16%, and information services by 32.8% [2] - Key areas of investment, particularly in infrastructure, also saw significant growth, with water management investment up by 12.6% and information transmission investment by 8.3% [2] Group 3 - Investment in clean energy is steadily increasing, with solar, wind, nuclear, and hydropower investments collectively growing by 21.9% year-on-year from January to July [2] - The potential for investment in China remains substantial, with significant gaps in per capita capital stock compared to developed countries, indicating a need for increased investment in new productive forces and social welfare [3] - Future strategies include promoting high-quality development, optimizing the investment environment, and stimulating private investment to enhance effective investment and support stable economic growth [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Cambodia has seen a significant increase in investment projects in the first seven months of 2025, with a total of 440 projects approved, marking an 88% year-on-year growth compared to the same period in 2024 [1][3] - The total investment amount for the newly approved projects reached $6.7 billion, which is an increase of $3 billion, representing an 84% growth compared to the previous year [3] - The number of investment projects approved in the first seven months of 2025 has already surpassed the total number for the entire year of 2024, indicating a sustained rise in investment enthusiasm [3] Group 2 - In July 2025 alone, the investment committee approved 67 projects with a total investment of approximately $944 million, expected to create around 57,000 jobs [3] - Compared to July 2024, the number of projects approved in July 2025 increased by 23, and the investment amount grew by $547 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 138% [3] - Out of the 67 projects approved in July 2025, 43 are located outside economic zones, while 24 are within economic zones [3]

Investment Growth - Jinhua City has implemented a project-driven investment expansion action, achieving a fixed asset investment growth of 16.4% year-on-year in the first half of the year, ranking first in Zhejiang Province [1] - The investment structure is improving, with "ring transportation energy water" investment increasing by 40.6%, private investment up by 11.5%, and high-tech industry investment rising by 21.6% [1] Major Projects - The construction of major projects is progressing steadily, with 67 significant projects in the China-Europe Railway Express sector totaling over 400 billion yuan, and over 14 billion yuan completed in the first half of the year [1] - Key projects include the Jinhua Railway Hub expansion with an investment of approximately 2.5 billion yuan and the Ningbo-Jinhua section of the Yongjin Expressway with an investment of about 1 billion yuan [2] Project Management and Efficiency - Jinhua City has optimized the full lifecycle service management for major projects, focusing on accelerating project initiation, construction, and effectiveness [3] - The city has implemented a "three-tier coordination" mechanism to address challenges in project construction, successfully resolving significant issues [3] Resource Allocation - Jinhua City has secured an additional 20,000 mu of construction land, ranking third in the province, and established a "one-on-one" service mechanism for major projects [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the economic risks outlined by Lagarde remain consistent with those presented in June [1] - A new potential positive factor mentioned is the improvement in corporate confidence, which may lead to increased investment [1]

Core Points - The meeting emphasized the need to implement Xi Jinping's important speeches and directives regarding Hunan's work, focusing on development and enhancing judgment, execution, and penetration capabilities to achieve annual goals [4][5][6]. Group 1: Economic Performance - The overall economic operation of the city has shown stability, improved quality and efficiency, and enhanced expectations despite facing severe challenges [4]. - There is a need to objectively assess the achievements of the first half of the year while addressing existing problems and shortcomings [4]. Group 2: Investment and Development - The city aims to accelerate investment growth by promoting major projects in key areas such as the Southern Integration City and Xiangjiang Science City, and by innovating and improving investment attraction models [5]. - Efforts will be made to revitalize existing assets and effectively utilize land resources, alongside enhancing project management mechanisms [5]. Group 3: Consumption and Service Sector - The focus will be on expanding consumption and improving the service industry, particularly in sectors like retail, transportation, finance, telecommunications, and internet services [5]. - There will be an emphasis on integrating cultural, commercial, tourism, and sports development to stimulate consumer vitality [5]. Group 4: Reform and Stability - The city plans to deepen reforms and expand openness, promoting innovation and ensuring stable development of foreign trade and investment [5]. - Safety and risk management will be prioritized, with efforts to expand employment opportunities and accelerate the progress of public welfare projects [5].

Core Insights - Israel's exports increased by 1.5% in the first quarter [1] - Private consumption decreased by 4.7% in the first quarter [1] - Investment grew by 6.1% in the first quarter [1] - Government spending saw a slight decline of 0.1% [1] - Per capita GDP experienced an annualized growth of 2.4% in the first quarter [1] - Annualized GDP growth (excluding net taxes on imports) was reported at 5.7% in the first quarter [1]