摘要 一问：需求的增量"蓝海"？当前服务业投资有3.3万亿空间，长期消费服务化趋势或再拉动投资。 相较历史趋势，服务业实际投资与潜在投资间存在3.3万亿缺口。 2024年居民人均服务性消费较历史趋势 的缺口为2093元，以全国14亿人口记，全国服务消费潜在缺口接近3万亿，或对应1.8万亿投资缺口。另 外，过往服务业投资占GDP比重与增加值占比变化长期趋同，但2016年服务业增加值占比保持韧性下， 投资占比却呈现持续回落态势，与增加值相匹配的潜在投资缺口或为1.5万亿。 短期来看，制约服务消费修复的关键是消费时间"腰斩"；但居民自平衡机制及关税"正外部性"均有反内 卷效果。 居民"内卷"导致消费时间减少，而服务消费更依赖居民体验与具体场景，更易受到消费时间减 少的挤压。但目前我国"反内卷"政策已聚焦居民，包括鼓励"带薪休假"、"弹性工作制"等。居民反内 卷"自平衡"机制与关税战的"正外部性"也使内卷不会是长期趋势。 关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人| 屠强、耿佩璇 长期来看，人均GDP在1-3万美元时，消费呈现"服务化"趋势，服务消费占总消费比重年均上行约 0.6pct，且人口结构转变 ...

工作时间延长如何影响居民的消费行为？ 消费困局的"盲点"？20260626 摘要 中国服务消费存在巨大潜力，每年服务消费差值达两三万亿，主要受居 民工作时间延长和消费场景不足影响，而非单纯收入下滑所致。可选品 消费未受显著影响，表明闲暇时间和服务场景是关键因素。 中国居民工作时间延长挤占闲暇，消费时间从 2018 年的平均每天 80 分钟降至 40 分钟，与日本、韩国等国形成对比。制造业和生产性服务 业工时上升，但工资与消费时间错配，抑制了消费。 中国法定节假日和年假总数偏少，员工休假意愿低，限制了休闲和假期 经济发展。相比之下，日本、韩国年假较多且员工休假意愿强，更能促 进假期消费。 预计 2025 下半年至 2026 年，弹性休假试点、00 后劳动力入职及出口 行业竞争缓解等因素，有望改善消费者行为，缓解内卷，促进服务消费。 制造业向生活性服务业的就业结构调整，有助于缓解内卷，满足服务业 人力需求。文化体育娱乐、教育医疗等领域仍存在招聘需求，工资增速 较高。 Q&A 近年来中国消费表现偏弱，是否可以完全归因于收入下滑？ 近年来中国消费表现偏弱，收入下滑无法完全解释这一现象。数据显示，人均 商品消费一直在潜 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significant investment opportunities in the service industry, highlighting a potential investment gap of approximately 3.3 trillion yuan due to the disparity between actual and potential service consumption [2][10]. Group 1: Demand Increment "Blue Ocean" - The current service industry investment has a potential gap of 3.3 trillion yuan, with a projected shortfall in per capita service consumption of 2,093 yuan in 2024, translating to nearly 30 trillion yuan nationwide [2][10]. - The decline in consumer time due to "involution" is a short-term constraint on service consumption recovery, but policies encouraging paid leave and flexible work arrangements are expected to mitigate this trend [2][3][33]. Group 2: International Experience in Demand-Driven Supply - Global experiences indicate that as consumer preferences shift from goods to services, a positive feedback loop is created, driving supply and investment growth [4][68]. - In Japan, service industry investment surged after entering an aging society, with service investment as a percentage of total investment rising to 11.6% when GDP reached 20,000 USD [4][90]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities in Specific Areas - The demand for household services, particularly in the domestic service sector, is on the rise, with significant investment potential in areas like housekeeping and elderly care [5][96]. - The service industry in China is currently more focused on corporate services, with a low proportion of value added from lifestyle services, indicating a need for greater attention to consumer demand [7][128]. - The effective supply of services in sectors like health and entertainment has been insufficient, leading to a significant gap between supply and demand [8][141]. Group 4: Future Investment Trends - The service industry is expected to see accelerated investment growth as private investment shifts from manufacturing to services, with notable increases in sectors like health and entertainment [8][158]. - The article suggests that the aging population will drive demand for "age-friendly" services, creating further investment opportunities in related sectors [6][113].

经济数据 国 内 经 济 证券分析师 赵伟 A0230524070010 zhaowei@swsresearch.com 屠强 A0230521070002 tuqiang@swsresearch.com 贾东旭 A0230522100003 jiadx@swsresearch.com 研究支持 宏 观 研 究 耿佩璇 A0230124080003 gengpx@swsresearch.com 联系人 屠强 (8621)23297818× tuqiang@swsresearch.com 2025 年 06 月 17 日 为何消费与生产背离？ ——5 月经济数据点评 事件：5 月，社零当月同比 6.4%、预期 4.9%、前值 5.1%；固投累计同比 3.7%、预期 4%、前值 4%；房地产投资累计同比-10.7%、预期-10.5%、前值-10.3%；新建商品房 销售面积累计同比-2.9%、前值-2.8%；工业增加值当月同比 5.8%、预期 5.7%、前值 6.1%。 ⚫ 核心观点：节假日分布差异、电商促销、出口与投资下滑，导致消费与生产背离。 消费：电商促销前置与假期增加（同比去年多 2 天）带动需求集中释放。 ...