Core Insights - The article discusses the opening of "Louis", a new landmark inspired by a luxury brand, in the Nanjing West Road shopping district, and its impact on consumer behavior and local businesses [2][5][10]. Group 1: Consumer Scene Creation - "Louis" is not just a flagship store but a composite space that integrates exhibition, dining, and retail, creating a new consumer scene [5][9]. - The concept of "consumer scene" has been recognized in national planning documents, emphasizing the importance of modern and fashionable consumption environments to enhance urban living quality [3][4]. Group 2: Impact on Local Businesses - Following the opening of "Louis", foot traffic in the surrounding area surged, with peak visitor numbers reaching 170,000 on June 28, leading to a 20% to 30% increase in sales for nearby businesses [10][12]. - However, the initial surge in foot traffic was short-lived, with many businesses reporting a decline in customer numbers after the first week [12][13]. Group 3: Long-term Viability of Consumer Scenes - To sustain consumer interest, initiatives like the "Jing'an Shopping Tour" have been launched to connect "Louis" with surrounding commercial resources, aiming to convert transient visitors into repeat customers [13]. - Experts suggest that for "Louis" to remain relevant, it must establish emotional connections with the public beyond its luxury branding, similar to how the Eiffel Tower evolved into a beloved landmark [13][18].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records focus on the **Chinese service consumption industry**, highlighting its potential and current challenges. The annual service consumption gap is estimated to be between **2 to 3 trillion yuan** due to factors such as increased working hours and insufficient consumption scenarios, rather than solely income decline [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Impact of Working Hours on Consumption** - Chinese residents' average daily consumption time has decreased from **80 minutes in 2018 to 40 minutes** currently, contrasting with countries like Japan and South Korea [1][4]. - Increased working hours in manufacturing and productive services have led to a mismatch between wages and available consumption time, suppressing overall consumption [1][4]. 2. **Holiday and Vacation Dynamics** - China has a total of **18 days** of holidays per year, significantly lower than Japan and South Korea, which have around **30 days** of annual leave [5]. - The reluctance of Chinese employees to take vacations further limits their leisure and holiday spending, negatively impacting the economy [5]. 3. **Future Consumer Behavior Changes** - From **2025 to 2026**, changes such as pilot programs for flexible holidays and the entry of the **post-2000 generation** into the workforce are expected to improve consumer behavior and alleviate internal competition [6]. - The adjustment of employment from manufacturing to service sectors is anticipated to meet labor demands in areas like culture, sports, entertainment, education, and healthcare, which are experiencing high wage growth [7]. 4. **Long-term Trends in Service Consumption** - There is a macro trend indicating a shift in consumer preference from goods to services, particularly as urbanization approaches **70%** [8]. - The primary service consumption demographic will be individuals aged **30-44 and over 55**, with a projected increase in service consumption despite an overall population decline [8]. 5. **Investment Landscape in Service Industry** - There is a significant investment gap in the life service industry, estimated at around **1 trillion yuan** in GDP proportion [9]. - Policy optimizations in **2025** are expected to boost service industry investments, with fixed asset investment in the accommodation sector projected to grow by **20%** [9][10]. 6. **Supply and Demand Dynamics** - The current supply of life services is insufficient compared to demand, indicating that increasing supply can lead to profitability [11][12]. - The government is focusing on service-related infrastructure investments to enhance consumer experiences and overall satisfaction [13]. 7. **Challenges in Cultural and Sports Industries** - The cultural industry faces a **95% reduction** in weekly film releases due to the pandemic, leading to a supply shortage that dampens consumer interest [17]. - The sports sector is also underdeveloped, with only **3 square meters** of sports venue space per person in China compared to **20 square meters** in Japan, indicating a need for increased facilities [16]. 8. **Importance of Service Industry Investment** - Increasing service industry supply can address current deficiencies and unlock potential consumer demand, contributing to both short-term recovery and long-term benefits [18]. - Social factors, alongside income, are crucial in influencing consumption patterns, suggesting that future consumption may outperform income recovery [18]. Additional Important Insights - The records emphasize the need for structural adjustments in employment to alleviate internal competition and meet the growing demand in the service sector [7]. - The shift in investment focus towards service industries is a significant policy direction, aiming to enhance overall economic performance and consumer satisfaction [10]. - The potential for service scene adaptations for the aging population is highlighted, indicating a growing market for age-friendly services and infrastructure [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the food and beverage sector [5][4]. Core Views - The report highlights that the demand for high-end liquor continues to face pressure during the off-season, while beer and beverages are entering a demand peak [11][1]. - The liquor index has decreased by 0.9%, indicating ongoing short-term fundamental pressures [13]. - The report suggests three investment themes in the liquor sector: 1) Leading companies with proven risk resilience such as Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye; 2) Companies like Luzhou Laojiao that are showing positive feedback from digital initiatives and are undervalued; 3) Brands like Jinsiyuan and Yingjia Gongjiu that still have market share growth potential [12][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Liquor - The report notes that high-end liquor prices have slightly declined, with Kweichow Moutai's stock buyback and international product launches indicating a strategic shift [2][11]. - Luzhou Laojiao plans to focus on expanding its market presence and enhancing brand image [2][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer engagement and market health for liquor companies moving forward [12]. 2. Consumer Goods - The beer industry is expected to enter a peak sales phase, with potential for good performance due to low comparative bases from the previous year [14]. - The snack food sector is experiencing a trend of differentiation, with leading companies driving efficiency across the supply chain [15]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with new product launches and channel breakthroughs, such as Wei Long and Yihai International [15]. 3. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - Kweichow Moutai is projected to have an EPS of 75.28 in 2025, with a PE ratio of 20.0 [4]. - Wuliangye is expected to have an EPS of 8.44 in 2025, with a PE ratio of 14.8 [4]. - Luzhou Laojiao's forecasted EPS is 9.64 for 2025, with a PE ratio of 12.1 [4]. 4. Market Trends - The food and beverage sector saw a decline of 0.65% this week, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.78 percentage points [20]. - The report indicates that the beverage sector is entering a peak season, with expectations for continued growth in segments like sugar-free tea and energy drinks [19].

这两个月，打工人的选择困难症状+1：今天用哪个APP点外卖？ 是喝京东3.9元的库迪，还是用美团15-10的券，还是早上8点打开淘宝领一杯免费奶茶？ 京东、美团、淘宝，三个巨头打得难解难分，实际上是争着挤进消费者的30分钟生活半径，抢占即时零售的用户心智。 当即时零售业态逐渐成熟，产品离消费者更近、更易获取，这将给食品饮料行业带来哪些新机会和挑战？ 可以看到，近几年，履约更快、即刻拥有的"本地供给"的需求持续扩大。过去，"吃饭靠外卖"成为了不少人的生活方式，而现在，"万物皆可外卖"正在成 为一种新的高确定性的生活方式，即时零售正在向全品类发展，全方位地为消费者带来更多的生活便利。 当万物皆可外卖成为现实，品牌的竞争已经不再是产品力或渠道的单维比拼，而是谁能聚焦一天24小时里更细分的场景切片，成为消费者在即时需求下的 优先解。 阅读看点： 1、即时零售背后，我们看到的食品品牌商业机会是什么？ 2、2025年，有哪些潜力消费场景值得关注？ 3、龟甲万、伊藤园、多力多滋，如何用场景找到增长突破口？ 1 美团、京东、淘宝打架， 本质上是消费场景的重构 巨头加速争抢的即时零售，并不是新物种。其核心需求本质是消费者对高配 ...