Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Pulse Daily Report - July 1, 2025: Limited Supply Bullishness, Sideways Market Movement" [2] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [3] Group 2: Market Performance Futures and Spot Market - **Soybean Meal**: Futures prices showed mixed movements, with different contracts having varying closing prices and changes. Spot basis prices decreased in most regions. For example, the 01 contract of soybean meal closed at 3003 with a gain of 4, and the basis in Tianjin remained at -40. [4] - **Rapeseed Meal**: Futures prices generally increased, and spot basis prices also showed some improvements. For instance, the 05 contract of rapeseed meal closed at 2320 with a gain of 6, and the basis in Guangdong increased by 16 to -116. [4] Spread Analysis - **Monthly Spreads**: Soybean meal monthly spreads had a mixed performance, with some spreads narrowing and others widening. Rapeseed meal monthly spreads showed a phased rebound, mainly influenced by the single - sided movement of the market. [4] - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased, and the spreads between soybean meal and sunflower meal, as well as rapeseed meal and sunflower meal, also changed. [4] Market Trends - **US Soybeans**: The US soybean market showed a sideways - down trend as the report lacked bullish drivers, and the market focused on the relatively loose supply - demand situation. [4] - **Domestic Market**: The domestic soybean meal market moved sideways with limited changes, while the rapeseed meal market rebounded. [4] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis International Market - **US**: The new - crop balance sheet of US soybeans improved due to the boost from biodiesel policies on crushing. As of the week ending June 15, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans reached 66%. The old - crop export inspection volume in the week ending June 12 was 21.58 tons, and the soybean crushing data in May was good, with the NOPA - caliber soybean crushing volume at 192.829 million bushels, a 1.37% increase from the previous month. [5] - **Brazil**: Brazilian farmers' selling progress was relatively slow and at a low level compared to historical periods. The recent selling progress continued to slow down, and price pressure emerged. The recent crushing volume decreased, and although the April crushing volume was good, the crushing profit was relatively low. It is expected that Brazil may further increase exports. [5] - **Argentina**: The domestic crushing volume may improve, and soybean exports may increase as the prices of terminal products have gradually stabilized. [5] Domestic Market - **Soybean Meal**: The domestic spot market remained relatively loose, with the oil refinery operating rate increasing, sufficient supply, and gradually accumulating inventory. As of June 27, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil refineries was 248.78 tons, the operating rate was 69.93%, the soybean inventory was 665.87 tons, a 4.37% increase from the previous week, and the soybean meal inventory was 69.16 tons, a 35.9% increase from the previous week. [6] - **Rapeseed Meal**: The demand for rapeseed meal gradually weakened, and although the supply was sufficient, the demand decline and high - level granular rapeseed meal still posed supply pressure. As of the week ending June 27, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil refineries was 4.3 tons, the operating rate was 11.46%, the rapeseed inventory was 18.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from the previous week, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 1.1 tons, an increase of 0.09 tons from the previous week. [6] Group 4: Macro - analysis - The negotiation between China and the US in London was completed, but the market lacked clear information. There were still many uncertainties in international trade, but as the market gradually stabilized, macro - level disturbances decreased. Due to China's high demand for the US soybean market in the long - term, the price was not likely to drop significantly in the short term. [7] Group 5: Logical Analysis - **Soybean Meal**: The domestic soybean meal market showed some pressure, but after the previous bearish factors were gradually reflected, the market rebounded. The overall bullish effect of the report was limited, and the recent upward trend slowed down. Although there were short - term bearish factors, the deep - decline space was limited as the price had dropped significantly. [7] - **Rapeseed Meal**: The rapeseed meal market moved sideways. The demand support was weak, and the upward space was limited due to the relatively high inventory level. [7] - **Spreads**: The monthly spreads of soybean meal had some support, and the monthly spreads of rapeseed meal were relatively strong. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was expected to widen in the future. [7] Group 6: Trading Strategies - **Single - Side Trading**: It is recommended to continue to make a small - scale long - position layout for the far - month contracts of soybean meal. [8] - **Arbitrage**: Expand the MRM09 spread. [8] - **Options**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy. [8] Group 7: Soybean Crushing Profit - The crushing profit of soybeans from different origins and shipping periods varied. For example, the crushing profit of soybeans from Argentina in October was - 72.23, showing a decrease compared to the previous day. [9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices are consolidating at a high level, and attention should be paid to LME delivery risks. The borrow strategy for copper can continue to be held, and options should be on the sidelines [6][7][8]. - Alumina supply and demand are expected to return to an excess situation, and it is advisable to short on rallies. Arbitrage and options should be on the sidelines [13][14][15]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate widely. After the correction, attention should be paid to downstream inventory replenishment. Consider the 9 - 12 positive spread for arbitrage, and options should be on the sidelines [19][20][22]. - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate widely with aluminum prices. Consider arbitrage when the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is between -200 and -1000 yuan, and options should be on the sidelines [26][28][29]. - Zinc prices may decline as inventories accumulate. Consider shorting distant - month contracts on rallies, and be wary of macro - risks. Arbitrage and options should be on the sidelines [33][34][36]. - Lead prices are expected to oscillate within a range. Consider buying a small amount of distant - month contracts on dips, and arbitrage and options should be on the sidelines [39][40]. - Nickel prices are oscillating downward. Consider selling call options, and arbitrage should be on the sidelines [44][46][48]. - Stainless steel prices are expected to be weak and decline. Arbitrage should be on the sidelines [52][53][56]. - Tin prices face pressure at the 60 - day moving average. Attention should be paid to the resumption of tin mine production, and options should be on the sidelines [59][60][61]. - Industrial silicon supply and demand remain in an excess pattern. Short - term short positions can avoid emotional rebounds, and consider selling out - of - the - money call options and Si2511, Si2512 reverse spreads [66][67]. - Polysilicon prices are expected to decline. Short - term short positions can be considered, and arbitrage and options should be on the sidelines [70][72][73]. - Lithium carbonate prices have limited upside. Adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies and do not bottom - fish. Arbitrage should be on the sidelines, and consider selling out - of - the - money call options [76][77][79]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai Copper 2507 contract closed at 78,290 yuan/ton, up 0.14%, with the Shanghai Copper Index reducing positions by 5,943 lots to 525,200 lots [2]. - Spot: Spot premiums declined in Shanghai, Guangdong, and North China [2]. - **Important Information** - In May, China's scrap copper imports were 185,200 tons, down 9.55% month - on - month and 6.53% year - on - year. Refined copper imports were 292,700 tons, down 2.49% month - on - month and 15.64% year - on - year [3][4]. - As of June 23, SMM's national mainstream copper inventory decreased by 16,300 tons to 129,600 tons [3]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Pay attention to LME delivery risks [7]. - Arbitrage: Hold the borrow strategy [8]. - Options: On the sidelines [9] Alumina - **Market Review** - Futures: The Alumina 2509 contract rose 11 yuan to 2,906 yuan/ton, with weighted positions decreasing by 4,632 lots to 430,300 lots [10]. - Spot: Spot prices in various regions declined [10]. - **Related Information** - In June, India had a 30,000 - ton alumina transaction at an FOB price of 366 dollars/ton. - It is expected that the operating capacity of alumina will reach 9.35 - 9.4 billion tons by the end of the month [11]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Short on rallies [14]. - Arbitrage: On the sidelines [15]. - Options: On the sidelines [15] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai Aluminum 2508 contract fell 50 yuan/ton to 20,365 yuan/ton, with positions increasing by 18,755 lots to 665,800 lots [17]. - Spot: Spot prices in East, South, and Central China declined [17]. - **Related Information** - In May, China's photovoltaic new - installed capacity was 92.92GW, up 388.03% year - on - year [18]. - On June 23, China's aluminum ingot spot inventory was 462,000 tons, up 12,000 tons from last Thursday [18]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Pay attention to downstream inventory replenishment after the price correction [22]. - Arbitrage: Consider the 9 - 12 positive spread [22]. - Options: On the sidelines [22] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review** - Futures: The Cast Aluminum Alloy 2511 contract fell 15 yuan to 19,380 yuan/ton, with weighted positions decreasing by 130 lots to 9,714 lots [24]. - Spot: Spot prices in various regions remained flat [24]. - **Related Information** - In May, China's automobile production and sales increased month - on - month and year - on - year, and new - energy vehicle production and sales also increased significantly [24]. - On June 23, the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi increased by 19 tons [25]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Prices are expected to fluctuate widely with aluminum prices [28]. - Arbitrage: Consider arbitrage when the price difference is between -200 and -1000 yuan [29]. - Options: On the sidelines [29] Zinc - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai Zinc 2508 rose 0.18% to 21,780 yuan/ton, with the Shanghai Zinc Index increasing positions by 258 lots to 259,600 lots [31]. - Spot: Spot prices in Shanghai were stable, and the premium was stable, but downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand [31]. - **Related Information** - As of June 23, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 77,800 tons, down 1,000 tons from June 16 and 1,800 tons from June 19 [32]. - Some zinc smelters in South China were affected by heavy rain over the weekend, and transportation was restricted [32]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Short on rallies for distant - month contracts, be wary of macro - risks [34]. - Arbitrage: On the sidelines [36]. - Options: On the sidelines [36] Lead - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai Lead 2508 rose 0.39% to 16,930 yuan/ton, with the Shanghai Lead Index reducing positions by 3,480 lots to 81,000 lots [35]. - Spot: The average price of SMM 1 lead remained flat, and the supply of recycled lead was scarce [38]. - **Related Information** - As of June 23, SMM's five - region lead ingot social inventory was 55,700 tons, down about 700 tons from June 16 [38]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Consider buying a small amount of distant - month contracts on dips [40]. - Arbitrage: On the sidelines [40]. - Options: On the sidelines [40] Nickel - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai Nickel main contract NI2507 fell 1,340 to 117,440 yuan/ton, with the index increasing positions by 11,384 lots [42]. - Spot: The premium of Jinchuan nickel increased, while that of Russian nickel remained flat [42]. - **Related Information** - PT Gag Nickel will resume operations in West Papua. The Qing Shan Industrial Park in Indonesia will strengthen environmental compliance management [43]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The price is oscillating downward, pay attention to macro and nickel ore changes [46]. - Arbitrage: On the sidelines [47]. - Options: Consider selling call options [48] Stainless Steel - **Market Review** - Futures: The main SS2508 contract fell 145 to 12,390 yuan/ton, with the index increasing positions by 25,926 lots [50]. - Spot: Cold - rolled and hot - rolled prices are given [50]. - **Related Information** - Indonesia's first professional anti - corrosion stainless - steel factory was put into operation [51]. - In May, China's stainless - steel imports from Indonesia decreased, and exports to Vietnam increased [51]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The price is expected to decline weakly [53]. - Arbitrage: On the sidelines [56]. Tin - **Market Review** - Futures: The main Shanghai Tin 2507 contract closed at 263,300 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton or 0.05%, with positions decreasing by 524 lots to 49,660 lots [55]. - Spot: Spot prices declined, and the market trading was light [57]. - **Related Information** - In April 2025, the global semiconductor sales were 57 billion dollars, up 2.5% from March 2025 and 22.7% from April 2024 [58]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Pay attention to the resumption of tin mine production [60]. - Options: On the sidelines [61] Industrial Silicon - **Market Review** - Futures: The industrial silicon futures fluctuated narrowly, closing at 7,420 yuan/ton, down 0.2% [62]. - Spot: Downstream procurement improved, and spot prices were stable [63]. - **Related Information** - In May, the total social electricity consumption was 809.6 billion kWh, up 4.4% year - on - year [64]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Short - term short positions can avoid emotional rebounds [67]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [67]. - Arbitrage: Participate in the Si2511, Si2512 reverse spreads [67] Polysilicon - **Market Review** - Futures: The main polysilicon futures contract fell 3.33% to 30,615 yuan/ton [68]. - Spot: Spot prices declined [68]. - **Related Information** - From January to May 2025, China's new - installed photovoltaic capacity was 197.85GW, up 150% year - on - year [69]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Short - term short positions [73]. - Options: On the sidelines [73]. - Arbitrage: On the sidelines [73] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review** - Futures: The main 2509 contract fell 460 to 59,120 yuan/ton, with the index increasing positions by 9,340 lots, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts decreasing by 1,014 to 26,779 tons [74]. - Spot: Spot prices declined [74]. - **Related Information** - In May 2025, China's lithium spodumene imports were about 605,000 tons, slightly down 2.9% month - on - month [75]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Short on rallies, do not bottom - fish [77]. - Arbitrage: On the sidelines [78]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [79]