【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不 预示未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参 考，不构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险 等级相匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 天风证券指出，银行板块短期调整不改长期向好逻辑。增量资金持续涌入带动板块估值修复，当前 PB为0.73倍，较年初明显抬升，距离1倍PB仍有修复空间。高股息优势显著，银行板块股息率达 4.47%，在35个Wind二级行业中排名第二，但PB估值仅为0.73x，防御属性突出。基本面边际改善预期 明确：净息差企稳，信贷供需矛盾缓和推动贷款利率下行趋缓，高息存款集中到期释放成本改善红利； 非息收入受益理财回暖及债市修复；置 ...

Group 1 - The construction and infrastructure sectors are expected to improve in terms of market sentiment, with a notable increase in orders from state-owned construction enterprises in the second quarter [1] - The issuance of new local government special bonds reached 54.29% of the total planned for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.94 percentage points, with a month-on-month increase of 490.45% in July [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is set to release a work plan to stabilize growth in the building materials sector, which is anticipated to alleviate supply-demand conflicts in the cement industry under the anti-involution policy [1] Group 2 - The current price-to-earnings ratio for the construction sector is at a historical low of 8.53 times, while the infrastructure sub-sector has a valuation of 7.58 times, indicating potential for recovery [1] - The China Infrastructure ETF (159619) tracks the CSI Infrastructure Index (930608), which includes listed companies involved in construction, building materials, and engineering machinery, reflecting the overall performance of the infrastructure sector [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai CSI Infrastructure ETF Initiated Link C (016837) and Guotai CSI Infrastructure ETF Initiated Link A (016836) [1]

截至2025年7月10日 13:51，中证全指金融地产指数(000992)强势上涨1.60%，成分股中银证券(601696)、绿地控股(600606)10cm涨停，深深房A(000029) 上涨9.81%，中油资本(000617)，新城控股(601155)等个股跟涨。金融地产ETF(159940)上涨1.64%， 冲击6连涨。 金融地产ETF(159940)，场外联接(广发金融地产联接A：001469；广发金融地产联接C：002979)。 流动性方面，金融地产ETF盘中成交911.29万元。拉长时间看，截至7月9日，金融地产ETF近1周日均成交1018.93万元。 规模方面，金融地产ETF最新规模达10.01亿元。 截至7月9日，金融地产ETF近1年净值上涨42.84%，指数股票型基金排名402/2907，居于前13.83%。从收益能力看，截至2025年7月9日，金融地产ETF 自成立以来，最高单月回报为24.06%，最长连涨月数为4个月，最长连涨涨幅为29.82%，上涨月份平均收益率为5.00%。截至2025年7月9日，金融地产 ETF近3个月超越基准年化收益为7.20%。 金融地产ETF紧密跟踪中证全指金 ...

Group 1: Brokerage Sector Outlook - The brokerage sector is expected to see a valuation recovery throughout the year, with a significant increase in revenue and profit for listed brokerages, up 25% and 83% year-on-year respectively in Q1 2025 [1] - Key drivers of growth include brokerage, margin financing, and proprietary trading, with notable year-on-year increases of 49%, 51%, and 27% in brokerage, proprietary trading, and net interest income respectively [1] - The resilience of investment banking and asset management businesses is better than expected, indicating a positive growth outlook for brokerage and margin financing businesses [1] Group 2: Banking Sector and Fund Reform - The recent implementation of public fund reforms is anticipated to drive valuation in the banking sector, with a focus on aligning fund allocations with performance benchmarks [2] - The banking sector is currently under-allocated in active equity, with a deviation of nearly 10 percentage points from the CSI 300 index, suggesting significant potential for increased allocation [2] - Recent policy measures aimed at economic recovery, along with the expansion of passive funds and accelerated entry of insurance capital, are expected to support the banking sector's market performance [2] Group 3: Metal Industry Investment Opportunities - The metal industry is projected to experience steady profit growth in 2024 and Q1 2025, with gold, nickel, cobalt, tin, rare earths, and copper leading the sector [3] - Current valuations in the metal industry remain relatively low, particularly for aluminum, copper, and nickel, indicating potential for valuation recovery [3] - The industry is also seeing an increase in dividend returns, with some stocks offering dividend yields exceeding 5%, enhancing shareholder return capabilities [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the banking industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes a "pro-cyclical + high dividend" strategy, highlighting that policy measures are driving valuation recovery in the sector. The average dividend yield for the sector is currently at 4.49%, which remains historically high compared to the risk-free rate represented by the 10-year government bond yield [3][5] - The report anticipates that the improvement in the sector will be catalyzed by policy support, particularly from the real estate and consumer sectors. The static price-to-book (PB) ratio for the sector is only 0.65 times, indicating a significant safety margin with an implied non-performing loan (NPL) ratio exceeding 15% [3][5] - Recommended stocks include regional banks benefiting from policy expectations (Chengdu, Changsha, Suzhou, Changshu, Ningbo) and high-dividend stocks (ICBC, CCB, Shanghai Bank) [3][5] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - As of the end of April, 42 listed banks reported a year-on-year decline in net profit of 1.2% for Q1 2025, a decrease of 3.5 percentage points compared to 2024 [5] - The revenue growth rate for listed banks in Q1 2025 fell to -1.7%, down 1.8 percentage points from 2024. Net interest income decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, while non-interest income showed signs of stabilization [5][9] Market Trends - In April 2025, the banking sector experienced a slight decline of 0.06%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.94 percentage points, ranking fifth among 30 sectors [3] Macro and Liquidity Tracking - The manufacturing PMI for April was reported at 49%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points. The new RMB loans in March 2025 increased by 3.64 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.4% [3][5] Asset Quality - The overall asset quality of listed banks remains stable, with the NPL ratio decreasing by 1 basis point to 1.22% in Q1 2025. The provision coverage ratio decreased by 2.13 percentage points to 238% [10][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" for the banking sector [1]. Core Insights - The core viewpoint emphasizes a "pro-cyclical + high dividend" strategy, with policy measures driving valuation recovery in the sector. The average dividend yield for the sector is currently at 4.50%, which remains historically high compared to the risk-free rate represented by the 10-year government bond yield. This indicates a continued appeal for fixed-income-like investments. The report also highlights the potential for regional banks benefiting from economic recovery and policy effectiveness, with a focus on the expected improvements in the real estate and consumer sectors [3][17]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The banking sector is rated as "Outperform" [1]. Core Insights - The average dividend yield for the banking sector is 4.50%, which is historically high compared to the risk-free rate [3][17]. - The report suggests that regional banks with strong growth potential and benefiting from policy support should be closely monitored [3][17]. - The static price-to-book (PB) ratio for the sector is currently at 0.66, indicating a significant safety margin with an implied non-performing loan rate exceeding 15% [3][17]. Market Trends - In February 2025, the banking sector experienced a decline of 0.98%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.89 percentage points, ranking 27th out of 30 sectors [21][27]. - The report notes that the average dividend yield of the six major state-owned banks in Hong Kong is 1.33 percentage points higher than that of A-shares, making them attractive to stable investment funds [4][9]. Individual Stock Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on regional banks such as Chengdu Bank and Changsha Bank, which are expected to benefit from their regional advantages and ongoing economic recovery. Chengdu Bank is projected to have earnings per share (EPS) growth of 13.1% to 15.1% from 2024 to 2026, with a corresponding PB ratio of 0.90x to 0.70x [50][54][56].