Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2605 increased with a weekly gain of about 0.72%. Considering the boost from holiday stockpiling and the reduction in cotton planting area, it is expected that the cotton price will still maintain a possible upward trend in the future [5]. - According to a report from a Brazilian authority, in December 2025, Brazil exported 452,500 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 28.2%. In the first five months of the 2025/26 season, the cumulative export was 1.405 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.7%, reaching the highest export volume from August to December in history [5]. - As of the end of December 2025, the national commercial cotton inventory in China was 5.7847 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 23.51% and a year - on - year slight increase of 1.75%, at a high level in the same period. However, driven by the combination of downstream rigid demand replenishment and the expectation of reduced planting in the future, the short - term inventory pressure is expected to be controllable [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2605 increased this week, with a weekly gain of about 0.72% [5]. - **Market Outlook**: Brazil's cotton exports increased significantly in December 2025 and the first five months of the 2025/26 season. China's commercial cotton inventory was at a high level at the end of December 2025, but the short - term inventory pressure is controllable. The cotton price is expected to maintain a possible upward trend [5]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory conditions [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **US Cotton Market**: The price of the US cotton March contract decreased this week, with a weekly decline of about 1.32%. As of January 13, 2026, the non - commercial long positions of US cotton were 88,834 lots, an increase of 7,425 lots from the previous week; the non - commercial short positions were 116,265 lots, an increase of 5,936 lots from the previous week; the net short positions were 27,431 lots, a decrease of 1,489 lots from the previous week [11]. - **Foreign Cotton Spot Market**: In the week ending January 8, the net export sales of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season reached 339,700 bales, a high for the season. The international cotton spot price this week was 74.55 cents per pound, a decrease of 0.5 cents per pound from last week [17]. - **Futures Market**: The price of the Zhengzhou cotton 2605 contract increased this week, with a weekly gain of about 0.72%, while the price of the cotton yarn futures 2603 contract decreased by 0.15%. As of this week, the net positions of the top 20 in cotton futures were - 164,119 lots, and in cotton yarn futures were - 1,836 lots. The number of cotton futures warehouse receipts at the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 9,972, and the number of cotton yarn futures warehouse receipts was 0 [21][27][31]. - **Spot Market**: As of January 23, 2026, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,870 yuan per ton, and the spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 21,320 yuan per ton [42][53]. - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of January 22, the import cotton price with sliding - scale duty was 13,684 yuan per ton, a decrease of 51 yuan per ton from last week; the import cotton quota price was 12,514 yuan per ton, a decrease of 102 yuan per ton from last week. The import cotton yarn price indices for different varieties were also provided [59]. - **Imported Cotton Price Cost - Profit**: As of January 22, the estimated profit of imported cotton with sliding - scale duty was 2,135 yuan per ton, a decrease of 100 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit of imported cotton with quota was 1,828 yuan per ton, a decrease of 49 yuan per ton from last week [62]. 3.3 Industry Chain - **Supply - Side - Commercial Cotton Inventory**: As of the end of December 2025, the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.7847 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 23.51% and a year - on - year slight increase of 1.75%. At the end of December, the in - stock industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 983,800 tons, an increase of 44,200 tons from the end of the previous month [67]. - **Supply - Side - Imported Cotton Volume**: In December 2025, China's total cotton import volume was about 180,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 31%. From January to December 2025, China's cumulative cotton import volume was 1.07 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 59.1%. In December 2025, China's imported cotton yarn volume was 170,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 20,000 tons [70]. - **Mid - end Industry - Demand - Side - Yarn and Grey Cloth Inventory**: As of the end of November, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 26.33 days, an increase of 0.21 days from the previous month, and the grey cloth inventory was 32.34 days, an increase of 0.37 days from the previous month [73]. - **Terminal Consumption - Demand - Side - Textile and Garment Export Volume**: In December 2025, China's textile and garment export volume was 25.99 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 7.4% and a month - on - month increase of 8.9%. Among them, textile exports were 12.58 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 4.2%; clothing exports were 13.41 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 10.2% [79]. - **Downstream Terminal Consumption - Demand - Side - Domestic Garment Retail Sales**: As of October 31, 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing were 864.54 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 13.90%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate was 2.9%, a month - on - month increase of 20.83% [83]. 3.4 Options and Stock Market - Related Market - **Options Market**: The implied volatility of at - the - money options for cotton this week was presented in the report, but specific data was not mentioned [84]. - **Stock Market - Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd.**: The price - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd. was shown in the report, but specific data was not mentioned [87].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Agricultural Products R & D Report - Cotton and Cotton Yarn Daily [1] - Date: January 6, 2026 - Researchers: Wang Xizhen, Liu Qiannan Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 contract closed at 14,955, up 215; trading volume was 9,463 lots, down 828; open interest was 76,464 lots, down 6181 [2] - CF05 contract closed at 14,855, up 200; trading volume was 394,159 lots, down 98,579; open interest was 915,854 lots, up 25,993 [2] - CF09 contract closed at 15,040, up 195; trading volume was 32,651 lots, down 12,617; open interest was 78,436 lots, up 6,406 [2] - CY01 contract closed at 20,250, down 225; trading volume was 32 lots, up 32; open interest was 378 lots, unchanged [2] - CY05 contract closed at 20,880, up 230; trading volume was 61 lots, down 22; open interest was 171 lots, up 7 [2] - CY09 contract closed at 20,695, down 90; trading volume was 1 lot, unchanged; open interest was 14 lots, unchanged [2] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B was 15,711 yuan/ton, up 126; CY IndexC32S was 21,240 yuan, up 40 [2] - Cot A was 74.05 cents/pound; FCY IndexC33S was 20,985 yuan, up 24 [2] - (FC Index):M: arrival price was 71.49; Indian S - 6 was 55,800 yuan, unchanged [2] - Polyester staple fiber was 7,450 yuan, up 70; pure polyester yarn T32S was 11,080 yuan, unchanged [2] - Viscose staple fiber was 12,730 yuan, unchanged; viscose yarn R30S was 17,320 yuan, unchanged [2] Spreads - Cotton inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 spread was 100, up 15; 5 - 9 spread was - 185, up 5; 9 - 1 spread was 85, down 20 [2] - Cotton yarn inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 spread was - 630, down 455; 5 - 9 spread was 185, up 320; 9 - 1 spread was 445, up 135 [2] - Cross - variety spreads: CY01 - CF01 was 5,295, down 440; CY05 - CF05 was 6,025, up 30; CY09 - CF09 was 5,655, down 285 [2] - Domestic - foreign spreads: 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton spread was 2,827, up 139; sliding - scale domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1,810, up 130; domestic - foreign yarn spread was 255, up 16 [2] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of December 31, 2025, Pakistan's new cotton listing in 2025/26 reached 842,000 tons, almost the same year - on - year; textile mills purchased 757,000 tons, up 1.1% year - on - year; unsold new cotton was 85,000 tons, down 8.5% year - on - year [4] - As of December 30, 2025, ICE cotton futures fund net long ratio was - 16.13% (up 0.41 percentage points week - on - week, up 2.46 percentage points last week) [4] - As of December 27, 2025, Brazil's 2025/26 cotton planting was 25.1% complete, up 8.2 percentage points month - on - month, 0.1 percentage points slower year - on - year, and 0.3 percentage points slower than the three - year average [4] Trading Logic - Xinjiang Cotton Association's article confirms the rumor of reduced cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026. Cotton sales are fast, and consumption is expected to increase due to improved Sino - US relations and expansion of Xinjiang textile mills [5] - China signed 20,000 tons of US cotton last week, providing upward momentum for US cotton. The cotton price is supported by fundamental factors, but there may be short - term correction risks [5] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: US cotton is expected to trade in a range, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be bullish with short - term correction risks [6] - Arbitrage: Hold off [7] - Options: Hold off [8][12] Cotton Yarn Industry News - The pure cotton yarn market is weak, with only rigid demand. Some factories have orders for 10 - 15 days. Yarn mills raised prices, but downstream acceptance is low [8] - The pure cotton grey fabric market is also weak. Dyeing factories are working on previous orders, and weavers find it difficult to get new orders before the Spring Festival [8] Group 4: Options - Volatility: Cotton's 10 - day HV was 6.4492, slightly higher than the previous day. CF601 - C - 13400 implied volatility was 6.7%, CF601 - P - 13000 was 11.4%, and CF601 - P - 12400 was 17.8% [10] - Options Strategy: Hold off [12] Group 5: Related Attachments - Figures include 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton spread, cotton 1 - month, 5 - month, 9 - month basis, CY05 - CF05, CY01 - CF01, CF9 - 1 spread, and CF5 - 9 spread [14][17][21][22]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the cotton textile industry is "Oscillating Weakly" [3] Core Viewpoints - Short - and medium - term outlook for cotton: This year, new cotton is on the market. With current prices in the low - value range, cotton purchases are likely to be stable. Around the National Day, firm spot prices support seed cotton prices, preventing deep drops in futures. After mid - to late October, as new cotton supply increases and hedging pressure rises, futures may first open low, then rebound, and finally decline. The short - term fluctuation range of CF2601 futures price is 13,200 - 14,200. Whether it can exceed 14,200 in October depends on the post - National Day spot tightness. Long - term outlook: Due to potentially tight domestic supply - demand next year, balanced global supply - demand, the Fed's shift to a rate - cut cycle, and possible continuous domestic favorable policies, the market is expected to improve macroscopically, showing an upward oscillating trend in the long run [5]. - For cotton yarn, this week, Zhengzhou cotton and cotton yarn markets mainly oscillated downward. The pure - cotton yarn market had average trading, worse than previous years. Low - count yarns performed better, with downstream purchasing for rigid demand. Inland spinning enterprises are still in cash - flow losses and lack confidence in the future. The market is highly concerned about subsequent orders in September [7]. Summary by Directory 01 - Weekly Viewpoint - Cotton - Short - and medium - term: New cotton purchase likely stable, futures supported by spot before National Day, may decline after mid - to late October. CF2601 short - term range 13,200 - 14,200. Long - term: Tight domestic supply - demand next year, global balance, possible favorable policies, long - term upward oscillation [5]. 02 - Weekly Viewpoint - Cotton Yarn - This week, Zhengzhou cotton and cotton yarn oscillated downward. Pure - cotton yarn market trading was average, low - count yarns better, inland enterprises in losses, market concerned about September orders [7]. 03 - Market Review - Cotton market: Zhengzhou cotton broke through support and trended down. Market focused on new cotton listing, with increased Xinjiang cotton production and yarn capacity, and tight spot market causing divergence. Cotton yarn market: Pure - cotton yarn trading was average, worse than previous years, low - count yarns better, inland enterprises in losses [11]. 04 - International Macroeconomics - In the US, various economic indicators such as ISM manufacturing PMI, employment data, trade balance, inflation, and interest rates had different changes in September 2025. In the Eurozone, unemployment, CPI, PPI, GDP, and interest rates also showed specific trends [12]. 05 - Domestic Macroeconomics - In China, in September 2025, foreign exchange reserves increased, CPI and PPI had specific changes, M2 money supply remained stable, social financing scale and new RMB loans had significant differences from previous values, and indicators like fixed - asset investment, retail sales, and unemployment also changed [14]. 06 - Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In the 2025/26 season, global cotton production, consumption, imports, and exports all increased slightly compared to the previous month, while the ending inventory decreased. Total supply increased slightly, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio changed [16][17]. 08 - US Cotton Exports - From September 5 - 11, 2025, US net signing of 2025/26 upland cotton increased, while shipments decreased. Net signing of Pima cotton increased, but shipments decreased. China's net signing of 2025/26 upland cotton was 998 tons, with no shipments [22]. 09 - Industrial and Commercial Inventories - At the end of August, China's commercial cotton inventory decreased significantly compared to the previous month and last year. Industrial cotton inventory in textile enterprises decreased slightly. Total industrial and commercial inventories decreased year - on - year [23]. 10 - Cotton and Cotton Yarn Imports in July - In August 2025, China's cotton imports increased from the previous month but decreased year - on - year. Cotton yarn imports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. Cumulative imports from January - August and the 2024/25 season decreased compared to the previous year [28]. 11 - Cotton Yarn Production and Sales in August - In August, the pure - cotton yarn market improved, especially in the second half. Spinning enterprises' profit margins improved, with reduced losses. August production increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month, and cumulative production from January - August increased year - on - year [32]. 12 - US Cotton Growth - As of September 14, US cotton boll opening and harvesting rates were close to the average of recent years, and the good - to - excellent rate was high. Yield is expected to increase steadily [35]. 13 - US Cotton Weather - As of September 16, the drought index in the US cotton - growing areas increased, approaching the 5 - year average. Early - stage drought had limited impact, and the weekly good - to - excellent rate was good [39]. 14 - Xinjiang Cotton Growth - As of September 15, 2025, Xinjiang cotton was in the late boll - opening stage, with a high boll - opening rate. The second round of defoliant spraying was in progress, and some early - maturing varieties in northern Xinjiang had started picking [41]. 15 - Textile Industry Inventories - In July, textile industry inventories increased slightly month - on - month and year - on - year. Textile and garment inventories showed different trends in month - on - month and year - on - year comparisons [42]. 16 - Domestic Demand - In August 2025, China's social consumer goods retail总额 increased year - on - year and month - on - month. Retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles also increased [47]. 17 - External Demand - Exports - In July 2025, China's textile and garment exports decreased slightly year - on - year and month - on - month. From January - July, exports increased year - on - year [50]. 18 - US Apparel Retail Sales in July - In July 2025, US apparel and clothing accessory retail sales increased year - on - year and month - on - month. In June, retailer inventories increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month, and the inventory - to - sales ratio decreased [56]. 19 - US Cotton Product Imports in July - In July 2025, US cotton product imports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. Textile and garment imports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [59]. 20 - Warehouse Receipts - As of September 18, 2024/25 season warehouse receipts decreased compared to the previous week [61]. 21 - Non - Commercial Long Positions - As of September 9, ICE cotton futures non - commercial futures plus options net long positions decreased, as did non - commercial futures net long positions and commodity index fund net long positions [65]. 22 - Spinning Mill Load - As of September 12, the pure - cotton yarn mill load index remained flat, the rayon yarn load remained flat, and the polyester yarn load increased slightly [68]. 23 - Weaving Mill Load - The pure - cotton grey fabric load index, rayon fabric load index, and short - fiber fabric comprehensive load all increased [72]. 24 - Industrial Chain Inventories - Textile enterprises' cotton, cotton yarn, and pure - cotton grey fabric inventories decreased compared to the previous week. Improving demand in the "Golden September and Silver October" season led to inventory decline, supporting prices [76]. 25 - Industrial Chain Profits - In the spot market, the pure - cotton yarn market was mediocre. Spinning enterprises wanted to maintain prices, and yarn prices declined slightly with Zhengzhou cotton. Profits improved slightly, with inland enterprises' C32S cash - flow losses around 300 yuan/ton [82]. 26 - Basis - This week, the basis strengthened as futures prices declined. The current basis is 1448 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from last week. New cotton purchase prices are out, and the basis for pre - sold new cotton is relatively high and stable [83]. 27 - Domestic - Foreign Cotton Price Spread - This year, domestic cotton is stronger than foreign cotton. However, after October, with Xinjiang cotton harvest and possible large - scale arrival of Brazilian cotton in November - December, the situation may change. In the long run, domestic supply may be tight next year, so one should not blindly short domestic and long foreign cotton [86]. 28 - Inter - Month Spread - The 11 - 1 spread is - 115 yuan/ton this week. Considering next year's supply - demand and macro - factors, the near - term is weak and the long - term is strong. However, due to factors like warehouse receipt cancellation in November, the spread may fluctuate between - 80 and - 200 [91].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2509 and the cotton yarn futures 2509 contract both rose, with weekly increases of about 1.96% and 1.87% respectively [6][18]. - Internationally, the decline in the good - quality rate of US cotton and the spill - over of crude oil price fluctuations boosted the US cotton market, but weak weekly export sales data dragged down the increase. The market is waiting for the USDA quarterly inventory report and planting area report [6]. - Domestically, the textile industry is in a consumption off - season. Enterprises' new orders are poor, the overall operating rate is slowly decreasing, and some spinning enterprises are in a state of inventory accumulation. The old - crop fundamentals lack driving force. However, the risk of high - temperature heat damage to cotton in Xinjiang has led to concerns about production, driving a short - term rebound [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights - **Market Analysis**: Zhengzhou cotton 2509 and cotton yarn futures 2509 rose this week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Internationally, the US cotton market has mixed factors. Domestically, the textile off - season affects demand, while weather concerns drive a short - term rebound [6]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to changes in foreign cotton prices, macro factors, trade policies, and weather factors [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **US Cotton Market**: The price of the US cotton December contract rose by about 3.19% this week. As of June 17, 2025, non - commercial long and short positions changed, and the net position increased by 0.50% [9]. - **Foreign Cotton Spot Market**: As of June 12, 2025, the weekly export volume of US upland cotton decreased by 13.36% month - on - month, and the cumulative export volume increased by 2.14%. As of June 24, the international cotton spot price index rose by 1.1% [14]. - **Futures Market**: Zhengzhou cotton 2509 and cotton yarn futures 2509 rose. As of this week, the top 20 net positions of cotton futures were - 36385, and that of cotton yarn futures were - 113. The cotton futures warehouse receipts were 10302, and the cotton yarn futures warehouse receipts were 2 [18][25][32]. - **Spot Market**: As of June 27, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15109 yuan/ton, and the spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20380 yuan/ton [39][46]. - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of June 25, 2025, the imported cotton price index and imported cotton yarn price index all rose slightly [52]. - **Imported Cotton Cost - Profit**: As of June 26, 2025, the cost - profit of imported cotton with sliding - scale duty was 497 yuan/ton, and that with 1% quota was 1253 yuan/ton [54]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Supply Side**: In May 2025, China's cotton imports decreased year - on - year, and the national cotton commercial inventory decreased month - on - month [59][63]. - **Mid - end Industry**: As of the end of May, textile enterprises' yarn and grey fabric inventories increased [67]. - **Terminal Consumption**: From January to May 2025, textile and clothing exports increased year - on - year. As of May 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles increased by 3.3% year - on - year [71][73]. 3.4 Options and Stock Market Correlation - **Options Market**: The implied volatility of at - the - money options for cotton this week is presented, but no specific data is given [75]. - **Stock Market**: The report mentions the price - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongfa, but no specific analysis is provided [79][81].