高盛闭门会-亚洲和中国 2026 股票策略，超配中韩印的理 由，首席策略师谈中国四大主题 20260110 高盛将亚太地区 MX APJ 指数 12 个月目标上调至 825 点，预计美元价 格回报为 14%，总回报为 17%，但认为回报可能不及 2025 年，建议 关注北亚、印度及周期性板块，通过核心主题创造超额收益。 高盛认为当前宏观环境具有建设性，美国 GDP 增速高于市场共识，美联 储或年中前再降息两次，美元指数将进一步贬值，通常利好亚洲市场。 预计 2026 年盈利增长强劲，从 10%提升至 19%。 高盛认为当前估值大致合理但略高，全年预测中计入小幅估值压缩，盈 利将是股市回报的核心驱动因素。海外投资者累计抛售约 1,000 亿美元， 共同基金配置较基准低 75 个基点，存在重建头寸空间。 高盛预计超大规模企业 2026 年投资增长 34%至约 5,500 亿美元，利 好硬件、半导体及 AI 领域。能源供应存在缺口，看好"亚洲能源升级" 主题，涵盖核电、电力及可再生能源等领域。 美中战略紧张局势带来美国再工业化机会，韩国、日本等国对美追加投 资，利好直接受益于美国需求增长或在工业技术、材料领域宣布对 ...

美国总统通常在每个任期首年年底发布国家安全战略报告。报告没有法律约束力，但对美国联邦政府预 算分配和政策优先事项制定具有一定影响。 《 人民日报 》（ 2025年12月08日 13 版） (责编：赵欣悦、袁勃) 本报华盛顿12月7日电 （记者李志伟）美国白宫近日发布美国国家安全战略报告，全面阐述美国总统特 朗普今年1月重返白宫以来的"美国优先"外交政策，聚焦美国"核心国家利益"，重新调整美国全球安全 优先事项。 报告认为，"美国必须在西半球保持首要地位"，加强在拉美的军事存在，确保美国在拉美"持续享有对 关键战略要地的使用权"。报告批评欧洲，警告其因移民政策等原因面临"文明消亡的严峻前景"，称美 国对欧政策应优先考虑"帮助欧洲纠正其当前发展轨迹"。报告对中东在美国外交政策中的地位作了"降 级"处理，提出要避免陷入使美国在中东地区付出巨大代价的"永久战争"。 在经济层面，报告强调经济安全是国家安全的基础，要求"重新平衡"全球贸易关系，扩大美国对全球关 键矿产和材料的获取，监控全球关键供应链和技术进步；通过"战略性关税"和新技术应用，推动美国再 工业化；强化美国"能源主导"和"金融主导"地位。 在军事层面，报告提 ...

【导读】特朗普政府祭出「创世纪行动」，将AI竞赛拔高至「曼哈顿计划」量级，并不惜以联邦力量起诉地方监管，誓要扫除一切阻碍算力狂飙的「减 速带」。从向沙特解禁芯片出口换取资金，到促成OpenAI与富士康联手重塑本土制造，一个庞大的「AI军工复合体」正在白宫的意志下加速成型。这不 再仅是技术的迭代，而是一场在「速度即正义」的逻辑下，美国赌上国运的霸权保卫战。 在这个周一的清晨，白宫的空气中弥漫着一种久违的、近似于冷战时期的紧张与亢奋。 「创世纪行动」并非仅仅是一个耸人听闻的代号。 它的核心逻辑非常粗暴且直接：集中力量办大事，扫除一切拦路虎。 该命令最引人注目的部分，是指示美国国家实验室——那些曾经孕育了核武器和互联网雏形的科研圣地——全面转向AI技术研发。 但这还不够，特朗普政府显然认为，现有的联邦体制正在拖累AI发展的脚步。 如果说上个世纪的物理学家们在洛斯阿拉莫斯的荒漠中叩开了原子弹的大门，那么今天，美国政府正试图在硅谷的数据中心里复刻那一历史性时刻。 特朗普即将签署的一项代号为「创世纪行动」（Genesis Mission）的行政命令，彻底撕下了所谓「商业竞争」的温情面纱。 根据能源部幕僚长卡尔·科（Car ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming CICC Global Economic and Sector Outlook Conference 2025, focusing on various themes such as geopolitics, AI applications, US reindustrialization, and the global strategies of Chinese companies in the food and beverage sector [3][7][8]. Group 1: Conference Overview - The conference will take place on November 14, 2025, at the Beijing Kerry Hotel [4]. - It will feature a welcome address by Sun Nan, a member of the Management Committee and Secretary of the Board of Directors at CICC [6]. - The agenda includes discussions on the future of geopolitics, the global economy, AI application unicorns in the US, and investment opportunities in US reindustrialization [7][8]. Group 2: Key Sessions and Guests - A session titled "Navigating the Future of Geopolitics, Global Economy, and Assets" will be led by Ashok Bhundia, the Deputy Chief Economist at the Institute of International Finance [7]. - The session on "The Rise of AI Application Unicorns in the US" will feature co-founders and CEOs from Sahara AI and Anytime AI [7]. - Investment opportunities in US reindustrialization will be discussed by executives from Honeywell China and Minth Group [8]. Group 3: Chinese Companies' Global Strategies - A session titled "How Chinese Companies Can Transition from 'Going Out' to 'Fitting In'" will include insights from leaders of Dreame Technology and Yadea Group [8]. - The global strategy of Chinese food and beverage companies will be explored in a session featuring co-founders from Molly Tea and Powerful Group [9]. - The conference will also address the performance of Vietnam's capital market in the post-emerging market upgrade era [9].

Core Insights - The collaboration between OpenAI and Microsoft is described as one of the greatest tech partnerships in history, emphasizing Microsoft's early commitment and ongoing support as crucial [1][3][6] - OpenAI has established one of the largest non-profit organizations globally to ensure that artificial general intelligence (AGI) benefits all of humanity, supported by a public benefit corporation for funding expansion [1][6][9] - Microsoft has invested approximately $13-14 billion in OpenAI, acquiring about 27% of the company on a fully diluted basis [1][6][9] - OpenAI plans to invest $1.4 trillion in computing power over the next four to five years, addressing the significant demand for computational resources in AI development [1][16][19] - AI is expected to reshape the SaaS landscape, with a shift in business logic towards intelligent agents, enhancing productivity and potentially leading to a "golden age of profit expansion" [1][16][34] - Concerns about fragmented AI regulation at the state level in the U.S. highlight the need for a unified federal framework to support the AI startup ecosystem [1][31][32] Investment and Financial Aspects - Microsoft’s strategic investment in OpenAI not only provides equity value but also creates significant strategic and economic benefits through exclusive API distribution rights and long-term commitments to Azure [1][6][9] - OpenAI's revenue-sharing model with Microsoft is set at 15%, continuing until AGI is validated or the agreement period ends [1][12][14] - OpenAI's projected revenue for 2025 is $13 billion, raising questions about how a company with such revenue can commit to $1.4 trillion in spending [1][16][19] AI Development and Economic Impact - AI is anticipated to greatly enhance productivity, potentially leading to profit growth that outpaces employee growth, thus creating new job opportunities and workflows [1][16][34] - The economic implications of AI-driven interactions differ significantly from traditional search models, affecting profitability in consumer and enterprise sectors [1][16][34] - AI's potential in scientific research is highlighted, with expectations for significant advancements and discoveries by 2026 [1][16][34] Future Outlook and Challenges - The realization of AGI is viewed as a critical milestone that could alter the exclusivity of the partnership between OpenAI and Microsoft [1][14][15] - The ongoing need for computational resources and the potential for supply chain constraints are acknowledged, with predictions that demand will continue to outpace supply in the near term [1][21][24] - The emergence of powerful consumer-grade devices capable of running large AI models locally is expected to transform human-computer interaction [1][16][34]

Group 1: AI Applications and Trends - The penetration and trust in AI applications among companies are increasing, with significant contributions to cost reduction and efficiency improvement. Typical applications include coding, customer service, and business process assistance [3] - Early adopters of AI are transitioning from trial phases to large-scale deployments, with cloud vendors and large model developers focusing on vertical industry transformations to enhance user engagement and value [3][15] - AI applications are becoming more specialized, with startups emerging around professional scenarios such as law, finance, and healthcare, creating industry-specific solutions that form closed commercial models [3][18] Group 2: Reindustrialization in the U.S. - The reindustrialization process in the U.S. is seen as a long-term decision, with gradual rather than abrupt growth in manufacturing output. Current investments are primarily in brownfield expansions and modernization [4][20] - Factors affecting the pace of reindustrialization include labor costs and supply chain support, with U.S. average labor costs being approximately five times that of China [4][23] - The demand for data centers is strong, while investments in logistics and consumer goods manufacturing remain stable, indicating a cautious approach in sectors like automotive [4][22] Group 3: Consumer Market Dynamics - The U.S. consumer market is experiencing a downgrade trend, particularly among low-income groups affected by inflation, leading to a shift in purchasing behavior towards essential goods [6][41] - Companies are employing strategies such as product innovation, supply chain optimization, and flexible pricing to maintain resilience in the face of consumer demand challenges [6][42] - The impact of tariffs has not fully translated to consumers yet, with companies adopting selective price increases rather than broad-based hikes [6][44] Group 4: Manufacturing and Labor Market Challenges - The U.S. manufacturing sector is undergoing structural changes, with a focus on rebuilding complete supply chains and improving efficiency through technology [20][23] - Labor shortages and high costs are significant challenges, with skilled labor being particularly scarce, impacting the speed of capacity ramp-up [30][31] - Automation and AI are increasingly being integrated into manufacturing processes to enhance productivity and reduce reliance on skilled labor [34][35] Group 5: AI in Manufacturing - AI technology is deeply penetrating the U.S. manufacturing sector, from design and development to production and operations, becoming a key factor in addressing labor cost pressures [34] - Companies are leveraging AI to optimize production data and enhance operational efficiency, with examples of AI applications in various manufacturing processes [34][35] - The integration of AI in manufacturing faces challenges related to data quality, cost, and ecosystem collaboration, which need to be addressed for further advancement [35]

Group 1 - The core of the recent U.S.-China tensions revolves around China's strategic responses to U.S. sanctions, particularly focusing on the push for RMB settlement in iron ore and the upgrade of rare earth controls [4][6][8] - China's initiative to promote RMB settlement for iron ore is a significant move against the dollar's dominance in global commodity pricing, potentially reducing the dollar's settlement ratio as more countries adopt RMB for essential commodities [6][8] - The upgrade in rare earth controls is a targeted measure to protect China's industrial interests, particularly in critical sectors like electric vehicles and advanced military equipment, which could severely impact U.S. manufacturing capabilities [8][18] Group 2 - The current market dynamics differ from previous downturns, as China's actions are seen as proactive rather than reactive, suggesting a stronger and more sustainable policy direction [10][12] - Investors in sectors like new energy and rare earths have already seen significant returns, which may lead to increased volatility as profit-taking occurs during market adjustments [13][14] - The challenges facing U.S. manufacturing, including high labor costs and a lack of complete supply chains, highlight the long-term advantages of China's industrial sectors, which are not easily altered by short-term policy changes [15][18] Group 3 - Ordinary investors are advised to maintain a balanced approach, focusing on industry advantages and fundamentals while managing their positions carefully [20][22] - The differences in volatility between Hong Kong and A-shares should be considered, with recommendations to shift some investments to core A-share sectors to mitigate external influences [20][22] - A strong emphasis is placed on understanding the long-term implications of China's industrial strengths and the challenges faced by U.S. manufacturing, rather than being swayed by short-term market fluctuations [23][24][26]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and slow progress of the U.S. manufacturing sector's efforts to return production to the country, despite significant investment announcements from foreign entities and government initiatives aimed at revitalizing the industry [1][6]. Investment Overview - Announced greenfield foreign direct investment (FDI) projects in the U.S. have increased by 96% from the average levels of 2017-2019, with commitments of $550 billion from Japan and $350 billion from South Korea [2][9]. - However, actual FDI inflows have only grown by 18% during the same period, indicating a significant gap between announced and realized investments [10]. Manufacturing Production - Despite a 110% increase in manufacturing construction spending since 2020, this has not translated into a corresponding increase in manufacturing production, which has only seen a 2% rise since 2019 [12][17]. - The manufacturing value added as a percentage of global totals has continued to decline, indicating a lack of competitiveness [17]. Employment Trends - Although companies have announced job creation due to manufacturing reshoring, actual employment in the sector has decreased, with a notable drop in 2024, marking the largest contraction since the 2008 financial crisis [2][22]. - The manufacturing employment share of total non-farm employment has fallen from 13% in 2000 to 8% in 2024, highlighting a significant labor shortage [31]. Sector-Specific Insights - The electronics industry has seen substantial investment growth, with construction spending in data centers and electronic equipment manufacturing increasing by 247% and 740%, respectively [25][28]. - However, the electronics sector's contribution to overall manufacturing output remains limited, accounting for only 4% of total manufacturing production [28]. Structural Challenges - The U.S. manufacturing sector faces significant constraints, including a shortage of qualified labor and inadequate infrastructure, which hinder further progress [4][31]. - The labor cost in the U.S. is significantly higher than in other countries, with manufacturing costs being 10%-50% more expensive, complicating the reshoring efforts [32]. Infrastructure Issues - The American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) has rated U.S. infrastructure as a C grade, indicating critical issues that need addressing to support manufacturing growth [35]. - Upgrading the aging electrical grid is essential, as increased power demands from new manufacturing facilities are expected to strain existing infrastructure [35].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses President Trump's upcoming tariffs on steel and semiconductor imports as part of a strategy to boost domestic manufacturing and reduce reliance on foreign supply chains [2][5]. Group 1: Tariff Announcement - President Trump announced that new tariffs on steel and semiconductor imports will be revealed within two weeks [4]. - The initial tariff rates will be set low to allow companies time to establish production facilities in the U.S., with plans to significantly increase rates later [4]. Group 2: Strategic Implications - The long-term goal of increasing tariffs is to encourage companies to build manufacturing capabilities domestically rather than relying on imports [4]. - Trump's approach mirrors his recent pharmaceutical strategy, aiming to create a more favorable environment for U.S. manufacturing [4]. Group 3: Recent Developments - In February, tariffs on steel and AI were raised to 25%, and in May, they were doubled to 50% to support U.S. manufacturers [5]. - Trump indicated a potential 100% tariff on imported semiconductors, with exemptions for companies that invest significantly in U.S. manufacturing [5]. - Apple's announcement of an additional $100 billion investment in domestic operations aligns with the broader effort of U.S. reindustrialization [5].

Group 1 - The article argues that the idea of re-industrialization in the U.S. is unrealistic due to high costs and challenges in the American market, as highlighted by TSMC's chairman, who stated that "the U.S. is expensive and not good to eat" [1] - It emphasizes that a successful industry requires a complete ecosystem, including government efficiency, infrastructure, supply chain, and talent support, which the U.S. currently lacks [1][2] - The article claims that the U.S. manufacturing sector is not strong enough to support a return to industrialization, as it lacks a continuous economic policy and suffers from bureaucratic inefficiencies at the local government level [3][4] Group 2 - The article points out that the U.S. does not have the necessary infrastructure to support manufacturing, as even minor disruptions can halt production for extended periods [3][4] - It highlights the shortage of trained manufacturing talent in the U.S., suggesting that the focus on academic research over practical skills has led to a decline in manufacturing capabilities [4] - The article warns that TSMC's investment in U.S. manufacturing may not yield returns due to the competitive pressure from mainland China's chip industry and the inefficiencies in the U.S. market [4]