近期，美国与日本、韩国相继签署协议，日本和韩国分别承诺向美国投资5500亿美元和3500亿美元，此举再度提升市场对于特朗普政策能否有效推动美 国"再工业化"的关注度。我们在此前的报告 《特朗普的目标与现实——经济每月谈第六期》 中已从逻 辑层面 剖析美国"再工业化"目标面临的障碍。本报告 则聚焦于2019年以来的实际数据，评估美国推动产业链回流的努力对其制造业产生的客观影响。 2019年以来美国制造业回顾：投资有热度、生产未改善、就业继续下降。 制造业就业继续下滑。 尽管企业宣称"回流"带动的制造业新增就业数量持续增长，但美国劳工局数据显示，实际制造业就业人数近两年反而呈现收缩态势。 尤其值得注意的是，2 024年制 造业就业收缩幅度为2008年次贷危机后（除2020年疫情外）之最。 结构上美国电子产业链局部加速，但整体带动乏力。 前述市场关注到的美国绿地投资宣告流入及制造业建筑业支出激增均集中于电子产业链。如2020年以来 数据中心、计算机及电子设备制造行业的实际建筑支出分别增长了247%、740%。同期，计算机与电子设备制造业生产指数也增长了18%，位列18个制造 业子行业之首。但该行业产出占整体制造业比 ...

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普周五表示，他将很快对钢铁和半导体芯片进口征收新关税，这标志着其旨在 促进国内制造业发展的贸易政策再次升级。 特朗普在前往阿拉斯加与俄罗斯总统普京会晤的空军一号上对记者表示，关税将在未来两周内公布。 关税最初将较低，以便企业有时间在美国建立生产基地，之后将大幅上调。 特 朗 普 表 示 ： " 一 开 始 我 会 把 利 率 设 得 较 低 ， 给 他 们 机 会 进 来 建 设 ， 一 段 时 间 后 再 把 利 率 设 得 很 高。"他指出，这一做法与他最近的制药战略如出一辙。 虽然总统没有具体说明初始税率，但他表示，提高长期关税将使企业更愿意在国内建设制造能力，而 不是依赖进口。 特朗普已通过提高多种商品的关税，震动了全球贸易。今年2月，他的政府将钢铁和AI的关税提高至 25%，随后在5月又将税率翻倍至50%，以提振美国生产商。目前尚不清楚即将出台的措施是否会进 公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 来源 ：内容来自 mining，谢谢 。 一步提高这些税率。 上周，特朗普表示将对进口半导体征收100%的关税，但承诺在美国制造业进行大规模投资的公司可 享受关税豁免。他的最新 ...

Group 1 - The article argues that the idea of re-industrialization in the U.S. is unrealistic due to high costs and challenges in the American market, as highlighted by TSMC's chairman, who stated that "the U.S. is expensive and not good to eat" [1] - It emphasizes that a successful industry requires a complete ecosystem, including government efficiency, infrastructure, supply chain, and talent support, which the U.S. currently lacks [1][2] - The article claims that the U.S. manufacturing sector is not strong enough to support a return to industrialization, as it lacks a continuous economic policy and suffers from bureaucratic inefficiencies at the local government level [3][4] Group 2 - The article points out that the U.S. does not have the necessary infrastructure to support manufacturing, as even minor disruptions can halt production for extended periods [3][4] - It highlights the shortage of trained manufacturing talent in the U.S., suggesting that the focus on academic research over practical skills has led to a decline in manufacturing capabilities [4] - The article warns that TSMC's investment in U.S. manufacturing may not yield returns due to the competitive pressure from mainland China's chip industry and the inefficiencies in the U.S. market [4]

Group 1 - The European Union (EU) officials have requested major EU companies and their CEOs to report detailed plans for investments in the United States to prepare for trade negotiations with the US [1][3] - The European Business Association members received a questionnaire from the European Commission, asking for their future investment intentions in the US [3] - The European Industrial Roundtable, which includes major companies like ASML, BASF, SAP, BMW, and Mercedes-Benz, has also been contacted to provide their investment plans for the next five years [3] Group 2 - Recent trade negotiations between the EU and the US show signs of progress, with President Trump delaying the imposition of a 50% tariff on EU imports from June 1 to July 9 [3][7] - The EU aims to negotiate the cancellation of any tariffs on EU products or at least prevent new tariffs, exploring conditions that could satisfy the US [7] - European companies are currently focusing significant investments in the pharmaceutical sector, with Roche and Novartis committing to invest $50 billion and $23 billion respectively in the US [7] Group 3 - A survey by the German Chamber of Commerce revealed that 24% of surveyed companies intend to increase investments in the US, while 29% plan to reduce their investments [7] - The uncertainty caused by the fluctuating policies of the Trump administration is a primary reason for companies considering reducing their investments in the US [7] - Trump's recent executive order requiring pharmaceutical companies to lower drug prices in the US has led Roche to reconsider further investments in the US [8]

Core Viewpoint - Boeing, once a symbol of American manufacturing, now relies heavily on foreign orders for survival, as evidenced by recent transactions with Middle Eastern countries and the implications of U.S. trade policies [2][52]. Group 1: Recent Transactions and Orders - Qatar gifted a Boeing 747 valued at $400 million to the U.S. military, which will be modified to serve as Air Force One [2][4]. - The UAE's AviLease ordered 20 Boeing 737 MAX aircraft, with an option for 10 more, while Qatar Airways signed a contract worth $96 billion for up to 210 Boeing 787 and 777X aircraft [6][7]. - Boeing's revenue is projected to drop to $66.5 billion in 2024, marking a significant decline from $101.1 billion in 2018, with continuous losses expected [7][9]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Boeing's financials show a decline in revenue from $101.1 billion in 2018 to an expected $66.5 billion in 2024, with a net loss projected at $10.7 billion for 2024 [9]. - The company has faced operational losses for five consecutive years, with a projected operating loss of $10.7 billion in 2024 [9]. - Boeing's backlog of orders remains substantial, with $49.88 billion in contracts as of 2024, indicating ongoing demand despite recent challenges [9]. Group 3: Historical Context and Industry Position - Boeing has been a significant player in the aerospace and defense sectors, being the largest exporter in the U.S. and employing over 172,000 people, with 85% based in the U.S. [26][38]. - The company has transitioned from a manufacturing powerhouse to a more finance-driven model, outsourcing approximately 70% of its production [33][34]. - The decline in Boeing's reputation and market share is seen as a reflection of broader issues within American manufacturing, particularly following high-profile accidents and operational challenges [36][41]. Group 4: Geopolitical Implications - U.S. trade policies and tariffs have created uncertainty for Boeing, with potential price increases for its aircraft due to tariffs, which could benefit competitors like Airbus [41][42]. - The relationship between Boeing and China has deteriorated, with no significant orders from China since 2017, contrasting with previous decades of strong collaboration [49][50]. - Boeing's future heavily relies on U.S. government support and the revival of American manufacturing, particularly under the current administration's policies [38][52].

Group 1 - Qatar Investment Authority (QIA) plans to invest $500 billion in the U.S. over the next decade, nearly equivalent to its current total assets of $524 billion [1][2] - The investment is part of a broader economic exchange valued at $1.2 trillion between Qatar and the U.S., with over $243.5 billion already agreed upon [1][3] - QIA's investment strategy is shifting from small risk investments to larger transactions, focusing on acquiring stakes in publicly listed companies [3][4] Group 2 - The investment will target sectors traditionally favored by QIA, such as artificial intelligence, data centers, and healthcare, aligning with the U.S. re-industrialization agenda [2][3] - QIA's increased focus on the U.S. does not indicate a withdrawal from other markets, but rather an expansion of exposure to the U.S. market [3][4] - Qatar's wealth, with over $1.5 million per citizen, has granted it significant geopolitical influence in the U.S., particularly in the context of regional tensions with Saudi Arabia and Iran [5][6]

Group 1 - The recent phenomenon of "triple kill" in the US financial market, where stocks, bonds, and the dollar all decline simultaneously, indicates a significant outflow of capital from the US market [2][4] - The S&P 500 index has seen a decrease of 5.9% from December 2022 to April 2025, while the 10-year Treasury yield has increased by 0.11 percentage points during the same period [3] - The decline in US Treasury prices is attributed to multiple factors, including increased tariffs leading to inflation, forced liquidation by hedge funds, and the upcoming debt ceiling crisis [4][5] Group 2 - Major US companies are beginning to estimate the impact of tariffs on their profits, with PepsiCo projecting a 5% decline and Pulte Homes estimating a 1% increase in new home costs due to tariffs [6][7] - The impact of tariffs on small and medium-sized enterprises is still unclear, as they lack the resources to mitigate risks compared to larger corporations [7] - The outlook for the US bond market is more predictable, with expectations of increased demand for Treasury issuance following the debt ceiling increase, but concerns remain about inflation and capital outflows [8][9] Group 3 - The US-China trade war has shifted from a broad approach to targeted measures, with tariffs being raised on specific industries such as automotive and medical devices [9][10] - There is a consensus among US elites regarding the need to increase tariffs on key industries to bring manufacturing back to the US, despite the challenges of re-industrialization [10] - China faces a significant challenge in balancing the need for dollar reserves while exploring alternatives to the dollar in international trade, including the promotion of digital currency [11]

工业化关乎效率，再工业化关乎公平。 特约作者丨王汉洋 快九十岁的宾州老人 Ed Pany 总是和来访者从 1950 年代初开始讲起：精神失常的日本见习僧人烧毁了金阁寺、艾森豪威尔以国防名义建立连接全美的高速公 路网络、苏联则拉开了太空竞赛的大幕。不过外部世界纷纷扰扰都与正在上中学的 Ed 没有关系。 Ed 只关心他能不能多干点、再多干点、多给一些水泥口袋封口。Ed 贫穷的父亲从即将解体的奥匈帝国来到了美国，落地在宾夕法尼亚州北安普顿。到 Ed 出 生时，家里情况开始逐渐稳定，不过依然需要每个人都尽早工作。 正准备上中学的 Ed 并不讨厌工作，相反他迫不及待。伴随着二战结束，美国蒸蒸日上的经济也为每个人提供了机会。Ed 来到了家边的水泥厂，负责把铁丝套 在麻袋然后用机器把铁丝缠绕上去封口。一套、一钩、一拉，几分钱就到手了。 手捧水泥袋的 Ed Ed 就这样一直干到了 16 岁上大学，他依靠自己用缠水泥袋子挣的钱，付了学费。一个人，靠水泥袋子挣出了自己的学费，这在今天听起来像是天方夜谭。Ed 也知道这点，所以他才会在博物馆里，给所有访客讲述这个过去的故事。一个比房子、车和狗更令人激动的美国梦。 这个博物馆几乎是靠 ...