[Table_StockNameRptType] 云天化（600096） 公司点评 25H1 利润较稳定，磷化工业务保持景气 | 投资评级：增持（维持） [Table_Rank] | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025-08-26 | | | [Table_BaseData] 收盘价（元） | | 27.21 | | 近 12 个月最高/最低（元） | | 27.31/18.22 | | 总股本（百万股） | | 1,823 | | 流通股本（百万股） | | 1,823 | | 流通股比例（%） | | 100.00 | | 总市值（亿元） | | 496 | | 流通市值（亿元） | | 496 | [公司价格与沪深 Table_Chart] 300 走势比较 -21% -4% 14% 31% 48% 8/24 11/24 2/25 5/25 云天化 沪深300 [Table_Author] 分析师：王强峰 [Table_Author] 分析师：王强峰 执业证书号：S0010522110002 电话：13621792701 邮箱：wangqf@hazq.com 分 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock performance that will exceed the market index by more than 15% over the next six months [6]. Core Insights - The company is projected to achieve a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, estimated between 947.62 million to 1,042.38 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 146.97% to 171.67% [3]. - The expected net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is forecasted to be between 939.02 million to 1,033.78 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 151.01% to 176.34% [3]. - The increase in profits is driven by a constrained supply of refrigerants, a favorable industry landscape, and rising prices, particularly for the second-generation and third-generation fluorinated refrigerants [3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit of 547 million to 641 million yuan for Q2 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 138.70% to 180.08% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 36.31% to 59.95% [3]. - The average prices for key refrigerants in Q2 2025 are reported as follows: R32 at 49,811.48 yuan/ton (+49.63% YoY), R134a at 47,688.52 yuan/ton (+52.41% YoY), R125 at 45,270.49 yuan/ton (+8.35% YoY), and R22 at 35,885.25 yuan/ton (+33.79% YoY) [3]. Market Position - The company has established a comprehensive fluorochemical industry chain, focusing on anhydrous hydrofluoric acid, fluorinated refrigerants, and fluorinated foaming agents, positioning itself as a major supplier in the industry [3]. - The projected basic earnings per share for 2025 is 3.17 yuan, with a current price-to-earnings ratio of 14 times [3]. Revenue Forecast - The revenue forecast for the company is as follows: - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 5,810.02 million yuan, with a net profit of 1,935.95 million yuan [5]. - The company expects to see continued growth in revenue and profit through 2027, with net profits projected to reach 2,691.63 million yuan by that year [5].

Investment Rating - Investment Rating: Buy (Maintain) [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 13.966 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 77.86%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.054 billion yuan, up 17.11% year-on-year [4][5] - The company has completed the acquisition of Sinochem Blue Sky, enhancing its fluorochemical industry chain and product offerings [6][7] - The high-end fluorine materials segment faced pressure due to declining prices, while the electronic chemicals and carbon reduction business saw improved gross margins [7][8] Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.759 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 138.14%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 44.29% [4] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 3.157 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 95.73%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 16.02% [5] - The gross margin for Q4 2024 was 19.02%, down 14.04 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 5.70%, down 7.80 percentage points year-on-year [8][10] Segment Analysis - The high-end fluorine materials segment experienced a 20.7% decline in gross profit year-on-year, while the electronic chemicals segment saw a 25.0% increase in gross profit [7] - The carbon reduction business maintained stable growth, with average prices for copper and nickel catalysts increasing by 5.4% and 12.9% year-on-year, respectively [7] Future Outlook - The company expects net profits attributable to shareholders to reach 1.242 billion yuan in 2025, 1.534 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.775 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 26.54X, 21.49X, and 18.57X [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term performance pressure, but the outlook for refrigerant market conditions is expected to improve [2] - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 13.966 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 77.86%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.054 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.11% [4][5] - The integration of Sinochem Blue Sky into the company is expected to significantly enhance its comprehensive capabilities and strengthen its fluorochemical industry chain [6] Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.759 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 138.14%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 44.29% [4] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 3.157 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 95.73%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 16.02% [5] - The gross profit margin for Q4 2024 was 19.02%, a decrease of 14.04 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The company expects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 1.242 billion, 1.534 billion, and 1.775 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 26.54X, 21.49X, and 18.57X [11] Segment Performance - The high-end fluorine materials segment faced pressure with a gross profit margin decrease of 20.7% year-on-year [7] - The electronic chemicals segment showed strong demand with a gross profit increase of 25.0% year-on-year [7] - The carbon reduction business maintained stable growth, with average prices for copper and nickel catalysts increasing by 5.4% and 12.9% year-on-year, respectively [7] Capacity Expansion and Projects - The company has completed nine projects in 2024, including the establishment of China's first large-scale civil aviation tire production line [10] - Ongoing projects include 18,000 tons of polytetrafluoroethylene resin and 6,000 tons of fluorinated gases, which are expected to contribute to new profit growth [10]