Core Insights - The CITIC Basic Chemical Industry Index increased by 5.02% in September 2025, ranking 7th among 30 CITIC primary industries [1][2] - Sub-industries such as lithium chemical products, electronic chemicals, and modified plastics showed strong performance [1][2] - Chemical product prices continued to decline in September 2025 [1][2] Market Review - The CITIC Basic Chemical Industry Index outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 4.38 percentage points and the CSI 300 Index by 1.82 percentage points in September 2025 [2] - Over the past year, the index rose by 28.23%, surpassing the Shanghai Composite Index by 11.86 percentage points and the CSI 300 Index by 12.73 percentage points [2] Sub-industry and Stock Performance - In September 2025, 16 out of 33 CITIC tertiary sub-industries rose, while 17 declined [3] - Lithium chemical products, electronic chemicals, and modified plastics increased by 32.82%, 12.09%, and 11.91% respectively [3] - Among 524 stocks in the basic chemical sector, 215 rose and 309 fell, with the top gainers including Lanfeng Biochemical and Tianji Co., with increases of 103.92% and 84.82% respectively [3] Product Price Tracking - International oil prices continued to decline in September 2025, with WTI crude oil down by 2.56% and Brent crude oil down by 1.61% [4] - Among 319 tracked products, 93 saw price increases, while 175 experienced declines, indicating an overall downward trend in basic chemical product prices [4] Industry Investment Recommendations - The industry maintains a "market perform" investment rating, with expectations for improved supply and demand dynamics due to the implementation of growth plans [5] - For October 2025, the investment strategy suggests focusing on the pesticide, polyester filament, coal chemical, phosphate, and potassium fertilizer sectors [5]

东海证券近日发布基础化工行业周报：上周（2025/10/09~2025/10/10），沪深300指数下 跌0.51%，申万石油石化指数上涨2.99%，跑赢大盘3.50pct，申万基础化工指数上涨1.99%， 跑赢大盘2.50pct涨幅在全部申万一级行业中分别位列第5位、第8位。子板块涨跌幅，涨幅前 五的为：磷肥及磷化工：6.26%；钛白粉：4.23%；油品石化贸易：4.23%；复合肥： 3.42%；涤纶：3.07%。 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资要点： 反内卷释放政策信号：9月28日，国家发展和改革委员会、市场监管总局发布《关于治 理价格无序竞争维护良好市场价格秩序的公告》，提出在保护经营者自主定价权的前提下， 采取调研评估行业平均成本、提供定价参考、加强价格监管、规范招投标行为等措施，引导 经营者共同维护行业公平竞争秩序。 行业基础数据跟踪：上周（2025/10/09~2025/10/10），沪深300指数下跌0.51%，申万石 油石化指数上涨2.99%，跑赢大盘3.50pct，申万基础化工指数上涨1.99%，跑赢大盘2.50pct 涨幅在全部申万一级行业中分别位列第5位、第8位。子板块涨跌幅，涨幅前五的为： ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The supply side is expected to undergo structural optimization, with a focus on selecting elastic and advantageous sectors. Domestic policies frequently emphasize supply-side requirements, while rising raw material costs and capacity shocks in Asia have led to shutdowns and capacity exits among European and American chemical companies. In the short term, geopolitical tensions have increased uncertainty in overseas chemical supply, but in the long term, China's chemical industry chain has a clear competitive advantage, rapidly filling gaps in the international supply chain and potentially reshaping the global chemical industry landscape [4][13] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Focus on sectors with significant supply elasticity such as organic silicon, membrane materials, chlorine-alkali, and dyes, with key companies including Hoshine Silicon Industry, Xingfa Group, Dongcai Technology, Junzheng Group, Zhejiang Longsheng, and Runtu Co. Additionally, pay attention to relatively advantageous products or leading companies in sectors with weaker supply-demand dynamics, such as coal chemical leader Baofeng Energy, fluorochemical refrigerants related to leading company Juhua Co., and pesticide sector leaders like Yangnong Chemical, Guangxin Co., Runfeng Co., and Jiangshan Co. [4][13] Industry News and Policy Signals - On September 28, the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued an announcement aimed at curbing price disorder and maintaining a good market price order. This includes measures such as assessing industry average costs, providing pricing references, enhancing price supervision, and standardizing bidding behaviors to guide operators in maintaining fair competition in the industry [12] Market Performance - For the week of October 9-10, 2025, the CSI 300 index fell by 0.51%, while the Shenwan Petroleum and Petrochemical Index rose by 2.99%, outperforming the market by 3.50 percentage points. The Shenwan Basic Chemical Index increased by 1.99%, outperforming the market by 2.50 percentage points, ranking 5th among all Shenwan first-level industries [15][17] Price Trends - The top price increases for the week of October 6-10, 2025, included NYMEX natural gas at 10.88%, anhydrous hydrofluoric acid in Jiangsu at 8.49%, and East China fluorite powder at 6.94%. Conversely, the largest price declines were seen in dichloromethane in Jiangsu at -3.44% and polyester industrial yarn at -2.30% [27][28]

Core Viewpoint - The prices of third-generation refrigerants have increased as of September 2025, while prices of PVDF and HFP have decreased [2] Group 1: Refrigerant Prices - As of September 30, 2025, the prices for third-generation refrigerants R32, R125, and R134a are 62,500 yuan/ton, 45,500 yuan/ton, and 52,000 yuan/ton, reflecting increases of 4.17%, 0.00%, and 0.97% respectively compared to the end of August [2][4] - The price of R22 has decreased by 4.23% month-on-month to 34,000 yuan/ton, but has increased by 13.33% year-on-year [2] Group 2: Fluorspar and Hydrofluoric Acid Prices - As of September 30, 2025, the prices for wet and dry fluorspar are 3,628 yuan/ton and 3,828 yuan/ton, showing month-on-month increases of 10.07% and 9.50% respectively [2][4] - The market price for anhydrous hydrofluoric acid is 11,704 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 11.83% [2][4] Group 3: Air Conditioning Production Trends - Domestic air conditioning production is expected to decline year-on-year in October, November, and December 2025, with production volumes of 11.53 million units, 12.96 million units, and 16.36 million units respectively, reflecting year-on-year decreases of 17.98%, 14.70%, and 8.60% [3] - Since June 2024, the export volume of R32 has shown an upward trend due to increased overseas demand and enhanced production capacity of domestic air conditioning companies [3] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The reduction of second-generation refrigerant quotas and the maintenance of third-generation refrigerant production quotas at baseline levels indicate a tightening supply-demand relationship [4] - The prices of refrigerants have been steadily increasing since 2025, with significant year-on-year price increases for R32, R134a, and R125 of 64.47%, 55.22%, and 40.00% respectively [4] - Companies such as Juhua Co., Ltd., Sanmei Co., Ltd., and Jinshi Resources are recommended for investment due to their strong positions in the refrigerant industry and complete industrial chains [4]

Core Viewpoint - The joint release of the "Petrochemical Industry Stabilization and Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" by seven government departments aims to address industry bottlenecks and promote stable operation and structural optimization in the petrochemical sector [1][3]. Group 1: Policy and Industry Outlook - The "Work Plan" outlines ten key tasks across five major directions to create a dual driving force for growth and transformation in the petrochemical industry [3]. - The plan is a collaborative effort involving the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Ecology and Environment, Ministry of Emergency Management, People's Bank of China, State Administration for Market Regulation, National Financial Supervision Administration, and the All-China Federation of Supply and Marketing Cooperatives [1][3]. Group 2: Market Performance - The top five chemical products with price increases this week include hydrogen peroxide (+16.7%), anhydrous hydrofluoric acid (+10.5%), coking coal (+7.1%), paraquat (+6.3%), and Brent crude oil (+5.2%) [1][5]. - The WTI oil price rose by 4.9% to $65.72 per barrel this week [4]. Group 3: Subsector Analysis - The prices of DMF, organic silicon, titanium dioxide, acetic acid, and caustic soda increased by 2.6%, 0.9%, 0.8%, 0.3%, and 0.1%, respectively [5]. - Conversely, the prices of VE, urea, ethylene glycol, calcium carbide PVC, VA, rubber, polymer MDI, liquid methionine, ethylene PVC, and solid methionine decreased by 7.3%, 1.8%, 1.4%, 1.1%, 0.8%, 0.7%, 0.6%, 0.6%, 0.3%, and 0.2%, respectively [5]. Group 4: Sector Performance - The basic chemical sector increased by 0.32% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 1.07%, resulting in a 0.75 percentage point lag [7]. - The sub-industries with significant weekly gains include synthetic resin (+15.49%), rubber additives (+12.33%), coatings and inks (+5.22%), polyester (+3.74%), and viscose (+2.26%) [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights the significant price increases in synthetic ammonia, lithium battery electrolytes, aniline, and anhydrous hydrofluoric acid, while other products like natural gas and sulfuric acid experienced notable declines [1][2][3] - As of September 26, Brent crude oil prices reached $70.13 per barrel, up 5.17% from the previous week, while WTI crude oil prices were at $65.72 per barrel, up 4.85% [1][3] - The report anticipates that the central value of international oil prices will stabilize between $65 and $70 by 2025 [1][3] Group 2 - The report identifies key investment opportunities in sectors such as glyphosate, fertilizers, import substitution, domestic demand, and high-dividend assets [4] - It suggests focusing on the glyphosate industry, which is showing signs of recovery with decreasing inventory and rising prices, recommending companies like Jiangshan Co., Xinfeng Group, and Yangnong Chemical [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic chemical fertilizer industries, particularly nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers, which are expected to maintain stable demand, recommending companies like Hualu Hengsheng and China Heart Link Fertilizer [4] Group 3 - The chemical industry is currently experiencing mixed performance, with some sectors like lubricants exceeding expectations, while overall industry performance remains weak due to past capacity expansions and weak demand [3][4] - The report highlights the potential for growth in the lubricating oil additive sector and suggests companies with strong competitive positions and growth potential, such as Ruifeng New Materials and Baofeng Energy [4] - The report also notes that the three major oil companies in China are expected to remain attractive due to their high asset quality and dividend yields in the context of rising international oil prices [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the basic chemical industry, suggesting that leading companies with significant scale and cost advantages will benefit from economic recovery and demand resurgence [4][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights the recovery of the TDI production facility by Mitsui and the successful commissioning of a new ethylene plant by Jilin Petrochemical, indicating positive developments in the industry [3][4]. - It emphasizes the strong competitive position of domestic tire manufacturers and suggests that rare growth stocks in this sector are worth attention [4]. - The report notes a potential recovery in consumer electronics, recommending upstream material companies as beneficiaries of this trend [4]. - It identifies several resilient cyclical industries, such as phosphate and fluorine chemicals, which are expected to see improved market conditions due to supply constraints and rising demand [5][8]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.18%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 2.35%. The CITIC Basic Chemical Index increased by 0.15%, and the Shenwan Chemical Index decreased by 1.36% [14][17]. - The top-performing sub-industries included organic silicon (3.59%), modified plastics (2.46%), and tires (2.22%), while the worst performers were other plastic products (-4.72%) and compound fertilizers (-3.04%) [17][18]. Industry Dynamics - Mitsui's TDI plant is set to resume production after a chlorine leak incident, with expectations of stable product supply [3]. - Jilin Petrochemical's new ethylene plant has successfully started operations, increasing its total ethylene capacity to 1.9 million tons per year [3]. Investment Themes - **Tire Sector**: Domestic tire companies are noted for their strong competitive edge, with recommendations to focus on companies like Sailun Tire and Linglong Tire [4]. - **Consumer Electronics**: A gradual recovery is anticipated, with upstream material companies expected to benefit from increased demand in the panel supply chain [4]. - **Cyclical Industries**: Phosphate and fluorine chemical sectors are highlighted for their resilience, with recommendations for companies like Yuntianhua and Juhua [5][8]. - **Leading Companies**: The report suggests that leading companies in the chemical sector, such as Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng, will benefit from economic recovery and demand resurgence [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2]. Core Viewpoints - The upcoming peak season in September and October is expected to improve demand for polyester filament, leading to price elasticity [5]. - The organic silicon industry is anticipated to experience a phase of rebound due to strengthened collaboration expectations [5]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The basic chemical sector outperformed the market with a weekly increase of 1.1%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.8% and the ChiNext Index increased by 7.7% [4]. - Year-to-date, the basic chemical industry index has increased by 23.9%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 8.8% but underperforming the ChiNext Index by 11.1% [4]. Key News and Company Announcements - The demand for polyester filament is improving, supported by favorable external factors such as the extension of tariffs between China and the U.S. and the initiation of autumn and winter orders in the domestic market [5]. - The organic silicon industry is expected to face significant supply pressure in 2024, with a projected 26.5% year-on-year increase in new capacity [5]. Product Price and Price Difference Analysis - As of August 29, the prices for polyester filament (POY, DTY, FDY) were 6900, 8050, and 7150 CNY/ton respectively, with weekly increases of 100, 100, and 50 CNY/ton [5]. - The report highlights significant price increases in various chemical products, with liquid nitrogen in Hebei rising by 38.5% [6]. Investment Recommendations - Core assets are entering a long-term value zone, with chemical blue chips expected to experience a dual recovery in valuation and profitability [6]. - Industries facing supply shortages are likely to see price elasticity first, with specific companies recommended for investment [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the phosphate fertilizer export window has opened, and high demand for phosphate fertilizers is expected to continue [1][2] - Phosphate fertilizer exports in 2025 may occur in phases, with the first batch concentrated in the peak period from May to September, and the second batch adjusted based on domestic supply and demand dynamics [1][2] - The total export quota for phosphate fertilizers in 2025 is expected to decrease compared to last year, which may help alleviate domestic overcapacity issues [1][2] Group 2 - The report highlights companies with strong performance in the first half of the year, recommending attention to Shengquan Group and Hailide [2] - Shengquan Group benefits from the AI capital investment in the new materials industry, being a major domestic supplier of electronic resins for AI servers, with expected performance improvements as server shipments increase [2] - Hailide, a leading enterprise in the polyester industrial yarn sector, is expected to benefit from the US tariff conflict due to its overseas factories [2] Group 3 - Frequent chemical safety accidents have raised concerns, with a recent explosion at Youdao Chemical prompting national attention [3] - The incident involved a hazardous chemical process, leading to expectations of nationwide safety inspections in the pesticide industry, which may help improve the industry's overall outlook [3] - Non-compliant production capacity involving dangerous processes may be accelerated for elimination, contributing to a recovery in the pesticide sector [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies such as Shengquan Group and Hailide. Both companies are expected to benefit from their respective market positions and macroeconomic factors [3]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the strong performance of Shengquan Group, a major domestic supplier of electronic resins for AI servers, which is expected to see a sequential increase in performance due to rising server shipments [1][3]. - Hailide, a leading company in the polyester industrial yarn sector, is highlighted for its advantages stemming from the US tariff conflicts, which are expected to enhance its profitability [1]. - The report notes that the export window for phosphate fertilizers has opened, with high demand anticipated to continue, benefiting large phosphate chemical companies like Yuntianhua [1]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Overview - The chemical sector index closed at 4064.30 points, up 1.11% from the previous week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.60% [9]. - Key chemical products such as acrylic acid methyl ester and NYMEX natural gas saw significant price increases, with the former rising by 8% [17][18]. Key Chemical Sub-sectors - **Polyester Filament**: Prices have slightly increased, with POY averaging 6865 CNY/ton, up 80 CNY/ton from the previous week. The market remains cautious due to slow demand recovery [20][21]. - **Tire Industry**: The operating rate for the full steel tire sector is at 64.89%, showing a slight decrease, while raw material prices are experiencing fluctuations [32][37]. Fertilizer Sector - The report indicates that phosphate fertilizer exports are expected to alleviate domestic overcapacity issues, with the first batch of exports scheduled for peak periods from May to September [1]. Company Profit Forecasts - Shengquan Group is projected to have an EPS of 1.53 CNY in 2025, with a PE ratio of 22, while Hailide is expected to have an EPS of 0.37 CNY with a PE of 17 [3].