| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:烧碱(日,元/吨) | 2317 | -44 烧碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 165100 | 31060 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) | -30729 | -16452 烧碱主力合约成交量(日,手) | 362389 | 60520 | | | 合约收盘价:烧碱:1月(日,元/吨) | 2317 | -44 合约收盘价:烧碱:5月(日,元/吨) | 2480 | -3 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) | -30729 | -16452 | | | | 现货市场 | 烧碱(32%离子膜碱):山东地区(日,元/吨) | 800 | 0 烧碱(32%离子膜碱):江苏地区(日,元/吨) | 950 | 0 | | | 山东地区32%烧碱折百价(日,元/吨) | 2500 | 0 基差:烧碱(日,元/吨) | 183 | 44 | | 上游情况 | 原盐:山东:主流价(日,元/吨) | 210 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - The PVC market may rebound with macro - sentiment after a volatile decline. The caustic soda market has a stable - to - falling spot price, and there are uncertainties in supply and demand [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract was 4,699 yuan/ton (- 3), the East China basis was - 69 yuan/ton (+ 3), and the South China basis was 1 yuan/ton (+ 3) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,630 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,700 yuan/ton (+ 0) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price was 690 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium carbide price was 2,830 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium carbide profit was - 12 yuan/ton (+ 0), the PVC calcium carbide - based production gross profit was - 713 yuan/ton (- 91), the PVC ethylene - based production gross profit was - 553 yuan/ton (- 14), and the PVC export profit was - 0.8 US dollars/ton (- 0.2) [1] - Inventory and operation rate: The PVC factory inventory was 36.0 tons (- 2.3), the PVC social inventory was 55.6 tons (- 0.1), the PVC calcium carbide - based operation rate was 74.73% (- 7.03%), the PVC ethylene - based operation rate was 76.10% (- 2.44%), and the overall PVC operation rate was 75.14% (- 5.66%) [1] - Downstream orders: The production enterprise's pre - sales volume was 55.6 tons (- 2.8) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2,375 yuan/ton (- 5), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 188 yuan/ton (+ 5) [1] - Spot price: The 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was quoted at 820 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was quoted at 1,280 yuan/ton (+ 0) [1] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1,571 yuan/ton (+ 0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 988.3 yuan/ton (+ 0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 216.28 yuan/ton (- 10.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 1,241.75 yuan/ton (+ 0.00) [2] - Inventory and operation rate: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 40.33 tons (- 1.79), the flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.45 tons (+ 0.34), and the caustic soda operation rate was 81.40% (- 2.90%) [2] - Downstream operation rate: The alumina operation rate was 86.22% (- 0.10%), the dyeing operation rate in East China was 66.76% (+ 0.13%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate was 88.61% (- 1.02%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - The PVC market may rebound with macro - sentiment after a volatile decline. The supply is abundant with new capacity coming on - stream and some maintenance enterprises resuming production. The demand has recovered to the pre - holiday level, and the social inventory has decreased slightly. The export has shown strong growth, but there are potential impacts from anti - dumping investigations [3] Caustic Soda - The spot price of caustic soda is stable - to - falling. The supply is expected to increase slightly with new capacity and the resumption of maintenance enterprises. The demand from the alumina industry has some uncertainties, and the non - aluminum downstream has seen an increase in operation rate. The inventory has decreased, and there is cost support [3] Strategy PVC - Unilateral: Wait - and - see - Inter - delivery spread: Sell the near - term contract and buy the far - term contract when the spread of V01 - 05 is high - Inter - commodity spread: None [4] Caustic Soda - Unilateral: Wide - range fluctuation - Inter - delivery spread: Wait - and - see - Inter - commodity spread: None [4][5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the PVC industry, this week's production volume slightly increased, but the actual volume was less than expected. Next week, production is expected to decrease due to more device overhauls. The apparent demand this week was higher than expected, and it is expected to remain stable next week. The inventory showed a mixed trend, with the old - sample inventory decreasing and the new - sample inventory increasing. The overall comprehensive profit of the chlor - alkali industry was in a relatively strong state but is expected to weaken later. The upstream is mainly focused on stable production, the downstream demand is weak, and the export order volume improved slightly this week [6][9][11]. - For the caustic soda industry, this week's production volume decreased slightly, but it remained at a high level and is expected to continue to increase. The apparent demand was in line with expectations and is expected to remain stable next week. The national inventory decreased slightly and may continue to decline. The comprehensive profit of the chlor - alkali industry in Shandong showed a mixed trend, with the profit of external - sales liquid - chlorine devices improving and the comprehensive profit of PVC - supporting enterprises weakening [112][115]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 PVC Market 3.1.1 Production - This week's total PVC production was 47.88 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.69 million tons. The ethylene - based production was 13.95 million tons, an increase of 0.55 million tons, and the calcium - carbide - based production was 33.93 million tons, an increase of 1.14 million tons. Next week, the total production is expected to be 44.87 million tons, mainly due to more device overhauls [6]. 3.1.2 Import and Export - The weekly average import volume remained stable at 1.50 million tons, and the weekly average export volume was 5.75 million tons. The export order volume increased slightly this week, and the export volume in July was 33.06 million tons, 10% higher than the previous forecast [6]. 3.1.3 Apparent Demand - This week's apparent demand was 44.35 million tons, higher than the expected 42.53 million tons. The expected apparent demand for next week is 42.53 million tons. The domestic apparent demand growth rate in September is expected to be - 2%, but the actual growth rate may be lower [6]. 3.1.4 Inventory - The total inventory this week was 84.16 million tons, a decrease of 0.72 million tons from last week. The old - sample inventory decreased by 0.72 million tons, while the new - sample inventory of middle - stream traders increased by 1.62 million tons, higher than the old - sample increase of 1.76 million tons. The actual total inventory still increased [6][9]. 3.1.5 Price and Basis - The spot price of PVC showed a weakening trend. The basis of PVC showed a strengthening trend, and the inter - month spread was volatile [11][24][25]. 3.1.6 Profit - The production profit of calcium carbide in Shaanxi remained stable at - 492 yuan/ton, while the production profit of calcium carbide in Inner Mongolia increased from - 40 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali slightly expanded, but it is expected to weaken later. The profit of various production methods of PVC showed different trends, with some decreasing and some increasing [11]. 3.2 Caustic Soda Market 3.2.1 Production - This week's total caustic soda production was 82.11 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.85 million tons. Next week, the production is expected to be 82.54 million tons and continue to increase [112]. 3.2.2 Import and Export - The weekly average import volume was 0.02 million tons, and the weekly average export volume was 6.52 million tons. The export volume in July was 29.1 million tons, and the export volume is estimated to be around 653,000 tons based on previous years' data [112]. 3.2.3 Apparent Demand - This week's apparent demand was around 77.09 million tons, and next week it is expected to be around 77.53 million tons based on previous years' data [112]. 3.2.4 Inventory - The total inventory (in 100% equivalent) this week was 20.05 million tons, a decrease of 1.48 million tons from last week. The liquid - caustic soda inventory in Shandong decreased by 3.10 million tons, and the flake - caustic soda inventory and the inventory of large alumina plants showed little change [112]. 3.2.5 Price and Basis - The spot price of caustic soda remained stable. The basis of caustic soda showed a strengthening trend, and the inter - month spread was volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the reverse - arbitrage opportunity for the 1 - 5 spread [115][126][127]. 3.2.6 Profit - The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong showed a mixed trend. The profit of external - sales liquid - chlorine devices improved, and the comprehensive profit of PVC - supporting enterprises weakened. The cost of caustic soda in Shandong remained stable [115].