氯碱日报 | 2025-11-11 供需偏弱，PVC震荡探底 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4614元/吨（+3）；华东基差-74元/吨（-33）;华南基差-4元/吨（-13）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4540元/吨（-30）；华南电石法报价4610元/吨（-10）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格800元/吨（+0）；电石价格2830元/吨（+0）；电石利润-100元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-769元/吨（-6）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-465元/吨（+79）；PVC出口利润4.8美元/吨（-0.3）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存33.5万吨（-0.3）；PVC社会库存54.6万吨（+0.1）；PVC电石法开工率80.17%（+3.70%）； PVC乙烯法开工率77.23%（-1.27%）；PVC开工率79.28%（+2.19%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量74.2万吨（-3.2）。 上游生产利润：山东烧碱单品种利润1509元/吨（+0）；山东氯碱综合利润（0.8吨液氯）845.8元/吨（-40.0）；山东 氯碱综合利润（1吨PVC）43.78元/吨（-10.0 ...

氯碱日报 | 2025-11-04 液氯价格大幅下调 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4680元/吨（-21）；华东基差-80元/吨（-9）;华南基差0元/吨（+1）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4600元/吨（-30）；华南电石法报价4680元/吨（-20）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格740元/吨（+0）；电石价格2830元/吨（+0）；电石利润-52元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-763元/吨（-40）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-545元/吨（+16）；PVC出口利润-3.7美元/吨（+7.2）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存33.8万吨（+0.4）；PVC社会库存54.5万吨（-1.0）；PVC电石法开工率76.47%（+4.82%）； PVC乙烯法开工率78.50%（-0.06%）；PVC开工率77.09%（+3.35%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量77.4万吨（+13.9）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2350元/吨（+40）；山东32%液碱基差150元/吨（-40）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价800元/吨（+0）；山东50%液碱报价1250元/ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the caustic soda price was weak, but due to the high - operating - rate of chlorine - consuming downstream industries such as PVC, the consumption of liquid chlorine was smooth, and its price continued to rise, leading to a wider profit margin in the chlor - alkali industry. In the fourth quarter, as it is the off - season for chlor - alkali plant maintenance and enterprises have sufficient willingness to operate under the current profit level, the supply pressure may remain high. The market price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is expected to run weakly. For the futures, as there is an expectation of cost - based production cuts in alumina in the future, and the impact after implementation is greater than the replenishment demand of new alumina plants, the spot price is at a premium over the 01 contract. In terms of valuation, there is still room for compression in the profit level corresponding to the 01 contract. Attention should be paid to the realization of the alumina production cut expectation in the future [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda contract was 2317 yuan/ton, a decrease of 44 yuan; the position of the main caustic soda contract was 165,100 lots, an increase of 31,060 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures was - 30,729 lots, a decrease of 16,452 lots; the trading volume of the main caustic soda contract was 362,389 lots, an increase of 60,520 lots. The closing price of the January caustic soda contract was 2317 yuan/ton, a decrease of 44 yuan; the closing price of the May caustic soda contract was 2480 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan [3]. 现货市场 - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 950 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of caustic soda was 183 yuan/ton, an increase of 44 yuan [3]. Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of thermal coal was 649 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was 200 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan; in Jiangsu, it was 125 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan [3]. Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,120 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina was 2790 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Industry News - From October 24th to 30th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.3%, a week - on - week increase of 3.5%. From October 18th to 24th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese alumina was 86.27%, a week - on - week increase of 0.05%. From October 24th to 30th, the operating rate of viscose staple fiber was 89.64%, an increase of 1.03% compared with last week; the operating rate of printing and dyeing was 68.32%, an increase of 1.01% compared with last week. As of October 30th, the factory inventory of fixed - liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 442,600 wet tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.84%, and a year - on - year increase of 52.42%. From October 24th to 30th, the average weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 626 yuan/ton [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - The PVC market may rebound with macro - sentiment after a volatile decline. The caustic soda market has a stable - to - falling spot price, and there are uncertainties in supply and demand [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract was 4,699 yuan/ton (- 3), the East China basis was - 69 yuan/ton (+ 3), and the South China basis was 1 yuan/ton (+ 3) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,630 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,700 yuan/ton (+ 0) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price was 690 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium carbide price was 2,830 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium carbide profit was - 12 yuan/ton (+ 0), the PVC calcium carbide - based production gross profit was - 713 yuan/ton (- 91), the PVC ethylene - based production gross profit was - 553 yuan/ton (- 14), and the PVC export profit was - 0.8 US dollars/ton (- 0.2) [1] - Inventory and operation rate: The PVC factory inventory was 36.0 tons (- 2.3), the PVC social inventory was 55.6 tons (- 0.1), the PVC calcium carbide - based operation rate was 74.73% (- 7.03%), the PVC ethylene - based operation rate was 76.10% (- 2.44%), and the overall PVC operation rate was 75.14% (- 5.66%) [1] - Downstream orders: The production enterprise's pre - sales volume was 55.6 tons (- 2.8) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2,375 yuan/ton (- 5), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 188 yuan/ton (+ 5) [1] - Spot price: The 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was quoted at 820 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was quoted at 1,280 yuan/ton (+ 0) [1] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1,571 yuan/ton (+ 0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 988.3 yuan/ton (+ 0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 216.28 yuan/ton (- 10.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 1,241.75 yuan/ton (+ 0.00) [2] - Inventory and operation rate: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 40.33 tons (- 1.79), the flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.45 tons (+ 0.34), and the caustic soda operation rate was 81.40% (- 2.90%) [2] - Downstream operation rate: The alumina operation rate was 86.22% (- 0.10%), the dyeing operation rate in East China was 66.76% (+ 0.13%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate was 88.61% (- 1.02%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - The PVC market may rebound with macro - sentiment after a volatile decline. The supply is abundant with new capacity coming on - stream and some maintenance enterprises resuming production. The demand has recovered to the pre - holiday level, and the social inventory has decreased slightly. The export has shown strong growth, but there are potential impacts from anti - dumping investigations [3] Caustic Soda - The spot price of caustic soda is stable - to - falling. The supply is expected to increase slightly with new capacity and the resumption of maintenance enterprises. The demand from the alumina industry has some uncertainties, and the non - aluminum downstream has seen an increase in operation rate. The inventory has decreased, and there is cost support [3] Strategy PVC - Unilateral: Wait - and - see - Inter - delivery spread: Sell the near - term contract and buy the far - term contract when the spread of V01 - 05 is high - Inter - commodity spread: None [4] Caustic Soda - Unilateral: Wide - range fluctuation - Inter - delivery spread: Wait - and - see - Inter - commodity spread: None [4][5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the PVC industry, this week's production volume slightly increased, but the actual volume was less than expected. Next week, production is expected to decrease due to more device overhauls. The apparent demand this week was higher than expected, and it is expected to remain stable next week. The inventory showed a mixed trend, with the old - sample inventory decreasing and the new - sample inventory increasing. The overall comprehensive profit of the chlor - alkali industry was in a relatively strong state but is expected to weaken later. The upstream is mainly focused on stable production, the downstream demand is weak, and the export order volume improved slightly this week [6][9][11]. - For the caustic soda industry, this week's production volume decreased slightly, but it remained at a high level and is expected to continue to increase. The apparent demand was in line with expectations and is expected to remain stable next week. The national inventory decreased slightly and may continue to decline. The comprehensive profit of the chlor - alkali industry in Shandong showed a mixed trend, with the profit of external - sales liquid - chlorine devices improving and the comprehensive profit of PVC - supporting enterprises weakening [112][115]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 PVC Market 3.1.1 Production - This week's total PVC production was 47.88 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.69 million tons. The ethylene - based production was 13.95 million tons, an increase of 0.55 million tons, and the calcium - carbide - based production was 33.93 million tons, an increase of 1.14 million tons. Next week, the total production is expected to be 44.87 million tons, mainly due to more device overhauls [6]. 3.1.2 Import and Export - The weekly average import volume remained stable at 1.50 million tons, and the weekly average export volume was 5.75 million tons. The export order volume increased slightly this week, and the export volume in July was 33.06 million tons, 10% higher than the previous forecast [6]. 3.1.3 Apparent Demand - This week's apparent demand was 44.35 million tons, higher than the expected 42.53 million tons. The expected apparent demand for next week is 42.53 million tons. The domestic apparent demand growth rate in September is expected to be - 2%, but the actual growth rate may be lower [6]. 3.1.4 Inventory - The total inventory this week was 84.16 million tons, a decrease of 0.72 million tons from last week. The old - sample inventory decreased by 0.72 million tons, while the new - sample inventory of middle - stream traders increased by 1.62 million tons, higher than the old - sample increase of 1.76 million tons. The actual total inventory still increased [6][9]. 3.1.5 Price and Basis - The spot price of PVC showed a weakening trend. The basis of PVC showed a strengthening trend, and the inter - month spread was volatile [11][24][25]. 3.1.6 Profit - The production profit of calcium carbide in Shaanxi remained stable at - 492 yuan/ton, while the production profit of calcium carbide in Inner Mongolia increased from - 40 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali slightly expanded, but it is expected to weaken later. The profit of various production methods of PVC showed different trends, with some decreasing and some increasing [11]. 3.2 Caustic Soda Market 3.2.1 Production - This week's total caustic soda production was 82.11 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.85 million tons. Next week, the production is expected to be 82.54 million tons and continue to increase [112]. 3.2.2 Import and Export - The weekly average import volume was 0.02 million tons, and the weekly average export volume was 6.52 million tons. The export volume in July was 29.1 million tons, and the export volume is estimated to be around 653,000 tons based on previous years' data [112]. 3.2.3 Apparent Demand - This week's apparent demand was around 77.09 million tons, and next week it is expected to be around 77.53 million tons based on previous years' data [112]. 3.2.4 Inventory - The total inventory (in 100% equivalent) this week was 20.05 million tons, a decrease of 1.48 million tons from last week. The liquid - caustic soda inventory in Shandong decreased by 3.10 million tons, and the flake - caustic soda inventory and the inventory of large alumina plants showed little change [112]. 3.2.5 Price and Basis - The spot price of caustic soda remained stable. The basis of caustic soda showed a strengthening trend, and the inter - month spread was volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the reverse - arbitrage opportunity for the 1 - 5 spread [115][126][127]. 3.2.6 Profit - The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong showed a mixed trend. The profit of external - sales liquid - chlorine devices improved, and the comprehensive profit of PVC - supporting enterprises weakened. The cost of caustic soda in Shandong remained stable [115].