Core Viewpoints - The asphalt futures market is experiencing a strong fluctuation, with the main contract reaching a peak of 3582.00 yuan and currently trading at 3560.00 yuan, reflecting a 1.42% increase [1] - Various institutions have differing views on the short-term outlook for asphalt, with a consensus on cautious trading strategies [1] Group 1: National Insights - Guosen Futures suggests a short-term trading approach for asphalt, driven by recent price increases from major refineries and a rebound in crude oil prices [2] - Demand remains weak due to high temperatures and regional rainfall affecting construction projects, leading to a cautious purchasing attitude among downstream users and traders [2] - The overall supply of asphalt is stable, but demand has not effectively released due to ongoing funding shortages, resulting in a lackluster performance during the peak season [2] Group 2: Regional Analysis - Nanhua Futures indicates that asphalt prices are primarily following cost fluctuations, with stable supply but weak demand due to adverse weather conditions [2] - The inventory structure shows slow de-stocking in social warehouses, while factory inventories are decreasing slightly, with some speculative demand causing inventory shifts [2] - The upcoming rainy weather in southern regions is expected to further weaken the demand outlook, with the peak season not performing as expected [2] Group 3: Market Trends - Donghai Futures notes that while oil prices are slightly rising, asphalt remains weak, with a small decline in basis [3] - The current inventory levels show limited de-stocking, and profits have slightly recovered with noticeable increases in production [3] - The market is likely to continue in a fluctuating pattern due to the anticipated impact of OPEC+ production increases on crude oil prices [3]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Asphalt Daily Report, August 13, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Wu Xiaorong, Futures Practitioner Certificate No.: F03108405, Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate No.: Z0021537 [3] Group 2: Relevant Data Futures Prices and Positions - BU2510 (Main Contract): Price on August 13, 2025, was 3503, down 3 (-0.09%) from the previous day [2] - BU2511: Price was 3460, down 6 (-0.17%) [2] - BU2512: Price remained unchanged at 3406 [2] - SC2509: Price was 489.5, down 5.7 (-1.15%) [2] - Brent First Line: Price was 65.91, down 1.1 (-1.61%) [2] - Main Contract Positions: 22.5 million lots, up 0.2 million lots (0.84%) [2] - Main Contract Trading Volume: 12.3 million lots, up 0.3 million lots (2.42%) [2] - Warehouse Receipt Quantity: 73,750 tons, unchanged [2] Basis and Spread - BU11 - 12: Spread was 54.00, down 6.00 (-10.00%) [2] - BU10 - 11: Spread was 43.00, up 3.00 (7.50%) [2] - Shandong - Main Contract Basis: 190.00, up 6.00 (3.26%) [2] - East China - Main Contract Basis: 190.00, up 6.00 (3.26%) [2] - South China - Main Contract Basis: Data unavailable [2] Industrial Chain Spot Prices - Shandong Low - end Price: 3520, unchanged [2] - East China Low - end Price: 3650, unchanged [2] - South China Low - end Price: Data unavailable [2] - Shandong Gasoline: Price was 7732, down 6.00 (-0.08%) [2] - Shandong Diesel: Price was 6562, up 1.00 (0.02%) [2] - Shandong Petroleum Coke: Price was 2960, unchanged [2] - Diluted Asphalt Discount: -5.3, unchanged [2] - Exchange Rate Middle Price: 7.1350, down 0.01 (-0.10%) [2] Spread and Profit - Asphalt Refinery Profit: 4.36, up 52.61 (109.04%) [2] - Refined Oil Comprehensive Profit: 525.78, up 54.41 (11.54%) [2] - BU - SC Cracking Spread: -511.40, up 36.30 (6.63%) [2] - Gasoline Spot - Brent: 1204.47, up 55.90 (4.87%) [2] - Diesel Spot - Brent: 859.07, up 62.09 (7.79%) [2] Group 3: Market Analysis Market Overview - On August 13, the average domestic asphalt market price was 3820 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.10%) from the previous day [5] - In the North China market, demand is slowly recovering, and major refineries are limiting shipments, supporting price increases [5] - In the Shandong market, supply is abundant, and transactions are mostly at low - end prices [5] - In the Northeast market, demand is weak, and some traders are cutting prices to stimulate sales [5] - In the South market, demand is tepid, but major refineries mainly ship by sea, and inventories are at medium - low levels, so prices are stable [5] - In the Shandong market, the mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3670 - 3850 yuan/ton. Falling crude oil prices are negative for market sentiment, but asphalt prices are already relatively low, and traders' previous procurement costs are high [5] - In the Yangtze River Delta market, the mainstream transaction price of heavy - traffic asphalt remained stable at 3750 - 3800 yuan/ton. Low refinery operating rates and inventory levels support prices, but rain has affected terminal demand [5] - In the South China market, the mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3530 - 3530 yuan/ton. Demand is weak, and many downstream users are pessimistic. New typhoons and high social inventories may keep prices weakly stable [6] Market Outlook - The short - term spot market is weak. Short - term precipitation affects demand release, and demand in the North will start slowly before September. The supply - demand pattern will be weak in August, and the de - stocking speed in the industrial chain will slow down [7] - Oil prices will fluctuate in the short term and are bearish in the medium term. Asphalt prices will fluctuate weakly in the short term, being more resilient than crude oil. The operating range of the BU main contract is expected to be between 3450 and 3550 [7] Group 4: Relevant Attachments - The report includes figures such as BU main contract closing prices, positions, East China and Shandong asphalt market prices, Shandong refined oil prices, etc., with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Wind, and Steel Union [9][10][12]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in asphalt futures prices indicates a bearish sentiment in the market, with expectations of continued volatility in the near term [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Performance - On August 8, asphalt futures experienced a sharp decline, reaching a low of 3467.00 yuan, closing at 3478.00 yuan, down 1.58% [1] - Various institutions predict that asphalt prices will experience fluctuations, with some expecting a primarily sideways movement [2][3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side of asphalt is expected to see limited growth, while demand remains strong during the peak season, although actual performance is still under observation [2] - The domestic asphalt market is currently in a subdued state, particularly in southern and central-western regions affected by the rainy season, while northern regions are beginning to see increased end-user demand [3] Group 3: Institutional Insights - Guantong Futures anticipates that asphalt will experience oscillations in the near term due to weak cost support from crude oil prices and upcoming government policies aimed at stabilizing key industries [2] - Jianxin Futures suggests that the asphalt market will primarily see single-sided price fluctuations, with potential opportunities for arbitrage as oil price increases slow down [2] - Xinhuh Futures notes that the short-term price outlook for asphalt remains weak, with attention needed on actual demand conditions as supply begins to recover [3]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Date: June 13, 2024 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - The unilateral price of asphalt is expected to rise following the short - term strong oil price due to geopolitical tensions. The long - BU short - SC position should stop profit and wait for the oil price to decline before considering re - entry. The previous recovery of asphalt profit has stimulated refineries' willingness to start work to some extent, but the overall increase is limited. The demand side will be affected by the rainy season in June, with limited growth space and lack of market drivers [6]. Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: For BU2509, the opening price was 3493 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3527 yuan/ton, the highest was 3535 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3468 yuan/ton, the increase was 1.47%, and the trading volume was 302,600 lots. For BU2508, the opening price was 3506 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3543 yuan/ton, the highest was 3549 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3485 yuan/ton, the increase was 1.37%, and the trading volume was 12,600 lots [6]. - **Spot Market**: The asphalt spot price in Shandong has increased, and the prices in other regions are mainly stable. The rise of crude oil and asphalt futures has a positive impact on the asphalt spot market sentiment [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Stop profit and wait for the long - BU short - SC position, and consider re - entry when the oil price drops [6]. Group 5: Industry News - **Shandong Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3520 - 3950 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The sharp rise in international oil prices drove the asphalt futures to fluctuate higher, boosting the spot market sentiment [7]. - **East China Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3600 - 3670 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The rise of crude oil price and asphalt futures supported the market price, but the market demand was poor, and the social inventory price was still low [7]. Group 6: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, Shandong asphalt spot price, Shandong asphalt basis, asphalt cracking, asphalt social inventory, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [11][15][19][24]