冠通期货研究报告 --沥青周报 研究咨询部苏妙达 执业资格证号：F03104403/Z0018167 发布时间：2025年12月22日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 行情分析 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回落0.2个百分点至27.6%，较去年同期低了0.9个百分点，仍处于近年同期最低水 平。据隆众资讯数据，12月份国内沥青预计排产215.8万吨，环比减少7.0万吨，减幅为3.1%，同比减少34.4万吨， 减幅为13.8%。上周，沥青下游各行业开工率多数下跌，其中道路沥青开工环比下跌3个百分点至24%，受到资金和天 气制约。上周，华东地区主营炼厂间歇停产，加之价格高位，其出货量减少较多，全国出货量环比减少3.52%至 24.45万吨，处于中性水平。沥青炼厂库存存货比环比小幅下降，仍处于近年来同期的最低位附近。由于美国财政部 宣布对委内瑞拉实施新的制裁措施，其中包括运输委内瑞拉石油的公司和船只，特朗普下令对进出委内瑞拉的受制 裁油轮实施全面封锁。委内瑞拉主要石油储存设施及码头停泊的油 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Date: December 16, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Oil prices lack support, and asphalt has no obvious driving force, expected to continue oscillating [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: BU2602 opened at 2941 yuan/ton, closed at 2963 yuan/ton, with a high of 2989 yuan/ton, a low of 2931 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.54%, and a trading volume of 211,000 lots; BU2603 opened at 2970 yuan/ton, closed at 2982 yuan/ton, with a high of 3005 yuan/ton, a low of 2951 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.74%, and a trading volume of 67,300 lots [6] - Spot Market: Asphalt spot prices in North China rose slightly, those in Shandong and Sichuan-Chongqing regions fell significantly, and prices in other regions remained stable. Rigid demand for asphalt continued to decline, negatively affecting market sentiment [6] - Supply: After the resumption of asphalt production at Guangzhou Petrochemical in South China, the operating rate is expected to remain stable, while in Shandong, there is no new resumption plan after the switch to producing residual oil, and the operating rate is expected to decline slightly [6] - Demand: Cold snaps will continue to affect most parts of China in the next ten days, with widespread rain and snow in central and eastern regions. Although the temperature will gradually rise after the 14th, demand is unlikely to be significantly supported due to seasonal factors [6] 2. Industry News - Shandong Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 2850 - 3370 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The increase in spot resource circulation and the decline in demand led to price cuts by refineries and traders [7] - East China Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3100 - 3220 yuan/ton, remaining stable from the previous working day. The futures price rose, but the spot price lacked upward momentum, and the high ex-factory price of road transportation limited purchasing enthusiasm [7] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including those on South China asphalt spot price, Shandong asphalt basis, asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, asphalt cracking spread, asphalt social inventory, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts [11][12][13]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Core View of the Report - The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly. Factors include the low asphalt production rate, reduced production volume in December, weakening demand, and the current market's cautious attitude towards winter storage contracts [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Supply side: Last week, the asphalt operating rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 27.9% week-on-week, 1.0 percentage point lower than the same period last year, still at the lowest level in recent years. In December, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.158 million tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons month-on-month (3.1%) and 344,000 tons year-on-year (13.8%). This week, Qilu Petrochemical plans to switch to asphalt production, and the asphalt operating rate will increase slightly [1] - Demand side: Last week, the operating rates of various downstream asphalt industries varied. The road asphalt operating rate remained unchanged at 29% compared with the previous week, restricted by funds and weather. After the temperature drops in the north, road construction will gradually end, subsequent demand will further weaken, and the increase in southern projects is limited, with overall demand being average [1] - Inventory: The inventory-to-sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased week-on-week and is still near the lowest level in the same period in recent years [1] - Crude oil price: Some previously malfunctioning oil fields in Iraq have resumed production, and the crack spread of refined oil products in Europe and the United States has continued to decline, causing the crude oil price to fluctuate weakly [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2602 contract fell 0.24% to 2,940 yuan/ton, below the 5-day moving average, with a minimum price of 2,916 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 2,953 yuan/ton. The trading volume increased by 4,156 to 205,972 lots [2] - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 2,930 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 02 contract rose to -13 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: Refineries such as Shandong Shengxing have resumed asphalt production, and the asphalt operating rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 27.9% week-on-week, 1.0 percentage point lower than the same period last year, still at the lowest level in recent years [1][4] - Investment: From January to October, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year-on-year, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate remained the same as from January to September. From January to October, the actual completed investment in fixed assets in the road transportation industry decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, a slight decline from -2.7% from January to September. From January to October, the completed investment in fixed assets in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, continuing to decline from 1.1% from January to September [4] - Social financing: From January to October, the year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.5%, a 0.2 percentage point decline from January to September. The new social financing in October was lower than market expectations [4] - Inventory: As of the week of December 5, the inventory-to-sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 13.2% compared with the week of November 28, and is near the lowest level in the same period in recent years [4]

Report Information - Report Name: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Date: November 19, 2025 [2] Report Core View - With no support for oil prices and weakening asphalt demand, the central price of asphalt is expected to have further downside potential, and short - selling is recommended [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: For BU2601, the opening price was 3054 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3032 yuan/ton, the highest was 3072 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3029 yuan/ton, the decline was 0.36%, and the trading volume was 157,100 lots. For BU2602, the opening price was 3068 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3052 yuan/ton, the highest was 3071 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3049 yuan/ton, the decline was 0.36%, and the trading volume was 30,100 lots [6] - **Spot Market**: Today, asphalt spot prices in the northwest and northeast regions were relatively stable, while prices in other regions declined to varying degrees. Some major refineries lowered their asphalt settlement prices, driving down the spot price. Shengxing Petrochemical plans to switch to producing residual oil, and Yunnan Petrochemical plans to shut down for maintenance in the middle of the month, so the operating rate is expected to decline slightly. On the demand side, demand in the northern regions has shrunk significantly. Affected by rain and snow, road asphalt demand in the northwest, northeast, and northern North China will drop to zero. In North China, Shandong, and surrounding areas, the temperature will drop below freezing, and road projects will gradually stop, so the rigid demand for asphalt continues the seasonal downward trend. Rainfall in the northwest and the eastern part of the southwest has also affected project construction, and demand continues to decline marginally [6] 2. Industry News - **Shandong Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70 A - grade asphalt was 3020 - 3520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The price difference between Qilu Petrochemical and local refineries widened, which was not conducive to resource consumption. Qilu lowered its settlement price, driving down the high - end price in the Shandong market. However, Hongrun stopped loading asphalt, Dongming shipped intermittently, and some refineries limited supply, so the tightened spot resources in circulation in Shandong were conducive to maintaining the firmness of local refinery prices, and the low - end price in the Shandong market rose slightly [8] - **South China Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70 A - grade asphalt was 3100 - 3210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Sinopec Maoming lowered its road and shipping prices, and the quoted price of Jingbo Hainan's storage area also decreased, leading to a decline in the low - end price in the South China market. In addition, the intended price of new contracts in Jieyang is expected to be lowered, and the warehousing cost of some storage areas continues to decrease, which is negative for market sentiment [8] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the spot price of asphalt in South China, the basis of Shandong asphalt, the daily operating rate of asphalt, the comprehensive profit of Shandong asphalt, asphalt cracking, social inventory of asphalt, manufacturer inventory of asphalt, and asphalt warehouse receipts, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [11][13][15][23]

Core Viewpoints - The asphalt futures market is experiencing a strong fluctuation, with the main contract reaching a peak of 3582.00 yuan and currently trading at 3560.00 yuan, reflecting a 1.42% increase [1] - Various institutions have differing views on the short-term outlook for asphalt, with a consensus on cautious trading strategies [1] Group 1: National Insights - Guosen Futures suggests a short-term trading approach for asphalt, driven by recent price increases from major refineries and a rebound in crude oil prices [2] - Demand remains weak due to high temperatures and regional rainfall affecting construction projects, leading to a cautious purchasing attitude among downstream users and traders [2] - The overall supply of asphalt is stable, but demand has not effectively released due to ongoing funding shortages, resulting in a lackluster performance during the peak season [2] Group 2: Regional Analysis - Nanhua Futures indicates that asphalt prices are primarily following cost fluctuations, with stable supply but weak demand due to adverse weather conditions [2] - The inventory structure shows slow de-stocking in social warehouses, while factory inventories are decreasing slightly, with some speculative demand causing inventory shifts [2] - The upcoming rainy weather in southern regions is expected to further weaken the demand outlook, with the peak season not performing as expected [2] Group 3: Market Trends - Donghai Futures notes that while oil prices are slightly rising, asphalt remains weak, with a small decline in basis [3] - The current inventory levels show limited de-stocking, and profits have slightly recovered with noticeable increases in production [3] - The market is likely to continue in a fluctuating pattern due to the anticipated impact of OPEC+ production increases on crude oil prices [3]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Asphalt Daily Report, August 13, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Wu Xiaorong, Futures Practitioner Certificate No.: F03108405, Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate No.: Z0021537 [3] Group 2: Relevant Data Futures Prices and Positions - BU2510 (Main Contract): Price on August 13, 2025, was 3503, down 3 (-0.09%) from the previous day [2] - BU2511: Price was 3460, down 6 (-0.17%) [2] - BU2512: Price remained unchanged at 3406 [2] - SC2509: Price was 489.5, down 5.7 (-1.15%) [2] - Brent First Line: Price was 65.91, down 1.1 (-1.61%) [2] - Main Contract Positions: 22.5 million lots, up 0.2 million lots (0.84%) [2] - Main Contract Trading Volume: 12.3 million lots, up 0.3 million lots (2.42%) [2] - Warehouse Receipt Quantity: 73,750 tons, unchanged [2] Basis and Spread - BU11 - 12: Spread was 54.00, down 6.00 (-10.00%) [2] - BU10 - 11: Spread was 43.00, up 3.00 (7.50%) [2] - Shandong - Main Contract Basis: 190.00, up 6.00 (3.26%) [2] - East China - Main Contract Basis: 190.00, up 6.00 (3.26%) [2] - South China - Main Contract Basis: Data unavailable [2] Industrial Chain Spot Prices - Shandong Low - end Price: 3520, unchanged [2] - East China Low - end Price: 3650, unchanged [2] - South China Low - end Price: Data unavailable [2] - Shandong Gasoline: Price was 7732, down 6.00 (-0.08%) [2] - Shandong Diesel: Price was 6562, up 1.00 (0.02%) [2] - Shandong Petroleum Coke: Price was 2960, unchanged [2] - Diluted Asphalt Discount: -5.3, unchanged [2] - Exchange Rate Middle Price: 7.1350, down 0.01 (-0.10%) [2] Spread and Profit - Asphalt Refinery Profit: 4.36, up 52.61 (109.04%) [2] - Refined Oil Comprehensive Profit: 525.78, up 54.41 (11.54%) [2] - BU - SC Cracking Spread: -511.40, up 36.30 (6.63%) [2] - Gasoline Spot - Brent: 1204.47, up 55.90 (4.87%) [2] - Diesel Spot - Brent: 859.07, up 62.09 (7.79%) [2] Group 3: Market Analysis Market Overview - On August 13, the average domestic asphalt market price was 3820 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.10%) from the previous day [5] - In the North China market, demand is slowly recovering, and major refineries are limiting shipments, supporting price increases [5] - In the Shandong market, supply is abundant, and transactions are mostly at low - end prices [5] - In the Northeast market, demand is weak, and some traders are cutting prices to stimulate sales [5] - In the South market, demand is tepid, but major refineries mainly ship by sea, and inventories are at medium - low levels, so prices are stable [5] - In the Shandong market, the mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3670 - 3850 yuan/ton. Falling crude oil prices are negative for market sentiment, but asphalt prices are already relatively low, and traders' previous procurement costs are high [5] - In the Yangtze River Delta market, the mainstream transaction price of heavy - traffic asphalt remained stable at 3750 - 3800 yuan/ton. Low refinery operating rates and inventory levels support prices, but rain has affected terminal demand [5] - In the South China market, the mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3530 - 3530 yuan/ton. Demand is weak, and many downstream users are pessimistic. New typhoons and high social inventories may keep prices weakly stable [6] Market Outlook - The short - term spot market is weak. Short - term precipitation affects demand release, and demand in the North will start slowly before September. The supply - demand pattern will be weak in August, and the de - stocking speed in the industrial chain will slow down [7] - Oil prices will fluctuate in the short term and are bearish in the medium term. Asphalt prices will fluctuate weakly in the short term, being more resilient than crude oil. The operating range of the BU main contract is expected to be between 3450 and 3550 [7] Group 4: Relevant Attachments - The report includes figures such as BU main contract closing prices, positions, East China and Shandong asphalt market prices, Shandong refined oil prices, etc., with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Wind, and Steel Union [9][10][12]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in asphalt futures prices indicates a bearish sentiment in the market, with expectations of continued volatility in the near term [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Performance - On August 8, asphalt futures experienced a sharp decline, reaching a low of 3467.00 yuan, closing at 3478.00 yuan, down 1.58% [1] - Various institutions predict that asphalt prices will experience fluctuations, with some expecting a primarily sideways movement [2][3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side of asphalt is expected to see limited growth, while demand remains strong during the peak season, although actual performance is still under observation [2] - The domestic asphalt market is currently in a subdued state, particularly in southern and central-western regions affected by the rainy season, while northern regions are beginning to see increased end-user demand [3] Group 3: Institutional Insights - Guantong Futures anticipates that asphalt will experience oscillations in the near term due to weak cost support from crude oil prices and upcoming government policies aimed at stabilizing key industries [2] - Jianxin Futures suggests that the asphalt market will primarily see single-sided price fluctuations, with potential opportunities for arbitrage as oil price increases slow down [2] - Xinhuh Futures notes that the short-term price outlook for asphalt remains weak, with attention needed on actual demand conditions as supply begins to recover [3]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Date: June 13, 2024 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - The unilateral price of asphalt is expected to rise following the short - term strong oil price due to geopolitical tensions. The long - BU short - SC position should stop profit and wait for the oil price to decline before considering re - entry. The previous recovery of asphalt profit has stimulated refineries' willingness to start work to some extent, but the overall increase is limited. The demand side will be affected by the rainy season in June, with limited growth space and lack of market drivers [6]. Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: For BU2509, the opening price was 3493 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3527 yuan/ton, the highest was 3535 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3468 yuan/ton, the increase was 1.47%, and the trading volume was 302,600 lots. For BU2508, the opening price was 3506 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3543 yuan/ton, the highest was 3549 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3485 yuan/ton, the increase was 1.37%, and the trading volume was 12,600 lots [6]. - **Spot Market**: The asphalt spot price in Shandong has increased, and the prices in other regions are mainly stable. The rise of crude oil and asphalt futures has a positive impact on the asphalt spot market sentiment [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Stop profit and wait for the long - BU short - SC position, and consider re - entry when the oil price drops [6]. Group 5: Industry News - **Shandong Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3520 - 3950 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The sharp rise in international oil prices drove the asphalt futures to fluctuate higher, boosting the spot market sentiment [7]. - **East China Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3600 - 3670 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The rise of crude oil price and asphalt futures supported the market price, but the market demand was poor, and the social inventory price was still low [7]. Group 6: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, Shandong asphalt spot price, Shandong asphalt basis, asphalt cracking, asphalt social inventory, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [11][15][19][24]