LPG早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/03/02 L P G 日期 华南液化气 华东液化气 山东液化气 丙烷CFR华南 丙烷CIF日 本 CP预测合 同价 山东醚后碳四 山东烷基 化油 纸面进口利润 主力基差 2026/02/13 4750 4467 4470 621 551 529 4460 7280 -171 315 2026/02/24 4760 4424 4500 640 583 540 4380 7300 -289 -58 2026/02/25 4770 4424 4500 641 600 540 4380 7300 -272 14 2026/02/26 4760 4444 4480 645 631 550 4410 7300 -301 -22 2026/02/27 4765 4429 4500 644 638 551 4420 7300 -300 10 日度变化 5 -15 20 -1 7 1 10 0 1 32 周度观点 上周盘面上行，主要受地缘、沙特装置故障影响。基差-342（-76），4-5月差73（-8）。仓单6679手（-83）。最便宜交割品是上海民 用4200（+50）。FEI月差4 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The short - term outlook for the East China LPG market is expected to remain stable, with a possible slight decline in local transaction prices. The internal basis of the LPG market is still weak, and the downside risk for the civil LPG market during pre - holiday inventory clearance is limited due to the large price difference between propane and civil LPG. The 3 - 4 month spread is fairly valued, and the situation of warehouse receipts needs to be monitored. The external market remains tight in the short term, with high freight rates, and geopolitical factors and cold snaps are key factors that need continuous attention [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Situation - The March - April spread rebounded, with the 3 - 4 month spread at - 275 (+22) and the 4 - 5 month spread at 89 (-2). Warehouse receipts remained unchanged. The East China market was generally stable, with mainstream transactions ranging from 4,150 to 4,800 yuan per ton. Market transportation capacity is gradually decreasing, and refineries are mainly focused on stabilizing inventory before the holiday, with a cautious attitude and limited willingness to adjust prices [1] Weekly Situation - The futures price fluctuated downward this week, mainly due to the decline in oil prices and the weak basis of PG. The basis strengthened by 163 to - 71 (calculated using Shanghai civil LPG), the 3 - 4 month spread was - 303 (-9), and the number of warehouse receipts was 6,902 lots (+1,035), with Wuchan Zhongda adding 1,000 lots. The current cheapest deliverable is Shanghai civil LPG at 4,150 (+30). The monthly spread of overseas paper goods increased, and the oil - gas price ratio fluctuated. The internal - external spread weakened, with PG - FEI c1 at 75.26 (-9.6), FEI - MB at 185.6 (+16.6), and FEI - CP at 10 (+13). Freight rates increased. The discount changed significantly due to contract roll - over, but the actual landed cost fluctuated weakly. The FEI - MOPI spread widened to - 44.75 (-15.75). PDH profit decreased. Port storage capacity decreased by 1.67 pct, and the number of incoming vessels decreased by 5.22%, mainly in East China; refinery storage capacity decreased by 0.39 pct, and external sales increased by 0.94%. Chemical demand increased, with PDH operating rate at 62.66% (+1.94 pct), and Donghua Zhangjiagang and Ningbo Formosa Plastics increasing their loads. Yantai Wanhua Phase II is expected to resume next week. Although the temperature has slightly warmed up, it is still low, and the rigid demand for combustion is fair. As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream restocking is coming to an end. It is expected that transportation capacity will decline next week, and factories will focus on inventory clearance [1]

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View This week, the domestic LPG market rose significantly influenced by geopolitical factors and the international market. The overall internal and external valuation is moderately high. Despite the decline in PDH operation rate, the fundamentals remain tight in the short term due to the cold wave in the US and the peak combustion season. However, as the cold wave ends and Middle - East supply resumes, combined with negative feedback from poor PDH profits and the maintenance season in March, the upward momentum will weaken. The domestic LPG spread valuation is neutral, and the fundamentals support bull spreads, but attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts. [4] Summary by Relevant Content 1. Price and Spread Data - **Daily Price Changes**: From 2026/01/21 to 2026/01/27, prices of LPG in South China, East China, and Shandong, as well as related products like propane CFR South China, showed fluctuations. The daily change on 2026/01/27 included a 70 - yuan increase in South China LPG, a 2 - yuan increase in East China LPG, and a 10 - yuan decrease in Shandong LPG. [4] - **Spread Data**: The 03 - 04 spread was - 274 (- 6), and the 04 - 05 spread was 88 (- 5). As of 9 pm, FEI and CP paper prices reached $539.64 and $534.64 respectively. Weekly spreads also changed, with the 03 basis at 96 (- 83), 02 - 03 spread at 64 (- 16), and 03 - 04 spread at - 261 (- 32). [4] 2. Market Conditions and Factors - **Domestic Market**: The domestic market was significantly affected by geopolitical and international factors this week. Civil LPG prices were divergent, with Shandong at 4460 (+ 20), East China at 4372 (- 151), and South China at 4780 (- 255). The cheapest deliverable was Shandong ether - after carbon four at 4350 (+ 10). Warehouse receipts were 5898 lots (- 79). [4] - **International Market**: FEI spreads rose, while MB and CP spreads slightly declined. The oil - gas ratio decreased slightly, FEI strengthened against CP and MB, and MB - CP also strengthened. The PG - FEI c1 spread was 55.1 (- 18.7). Propane arrival discounts in East China, and FOB discounts in AFEI, the Middle East, and the US also changed. Freight rates decreased, and the FEI - MOPJ spread was - 18 (weekly + 9). [4] 3. Profit and Inventory - **Profit**: PDH spot profits fluctuated, and paper profits dropped significantly. [4] - **Inventory**: Port inventory decreased by 1.53%, and incoming shipments decreased by 13.21%. Refinery storage utilization increased by 1.21 pct, and external sales increased by 2.11%. [4] 4. Industry Operation PDH operation rate was 62.25% (- 10.82 pct). Juzhengyuan Phase II was under maintenance, and Ruiheng had a breakdown and stopped production, expected to resume next week. [4]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic LPG market rose significantly due to geopolitical factors and the influence of the external market. Although the PDH operating rate has decreased, the fundamentals are still tight in the short term due to the cold wave in the United States and the peak combustion season. However, as the cold wave ends, Middle - East supply returns, and considering the negative feedback of poor PDH profits and the maintenance season in March, the driving force will weaken. The domestic market's month - spread valuation is neutral, and the fundamentals support bull spreads, but attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content 1. Daily Market Data - From January 20 to January 26, 2026, prices of LPG in South China, East China and Shandong, as well as related products like propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, CP forecast contract price, Shandong ether - after carbon four, and Shandong alkylation oil showed different changes. The paper import profit decreased from 148 to - 169, and the main contract basis decreased from 519 to 142. On January 26, compared with the previous day, the price of South China LPG decreased by 10, the price of East China LPG increased by 10, the price of Shandong LPG decreased by 40, and other indicators also had corresponding daily changes [1] 2. Daily Market Conditions - On Monday, under the influence of macro and geopolitical sentiments, the futures market showed a strong performance. The 03 - 04 month - spread was - 246 (+15), and the 04 - 05 month - spread was 91 (-13). As of 9 p.m., the FEI and CP paper - cargo prices reached 551 and 540 US dollars respectively [1] 3. Weekly Views a. Price and Basis Changes - The domestic market rose this week. The 03 basis was 96 (-83), the 02 - 03 month - spread was 64 (-16), and the 03 - 04 month - spread was - 261 (-32). Civil LPG prices were differentiated, with the price in Shandong being 4460 (+20), in East China 4372 (-151), and in South China 4780 (-255). The cheapest deliverable product was Shandong ether - after carbon four at 4350 (+10). The number of warehouse receipts was 5898 (-79) [1] b. International Market Indicators - The FEI month - spread increased, while the MB and CP month - spreads decreased slightly. The oil - gas ratio declined slightly. FEI strengthened compared to CP and MB, and MB - CP also strengthened. The domestic - foreign PG - FEI c1 reached 55.1 (-18.7). The arrival - at - shore discount of propane in East China, China was 85 (+8); the FOB discounts of propane in AFEI, the Middle East, and the United States were 36 (-1.75), 20 (-9), and 62.52 US dollars (+11.72) respectively. Freight rates decreased. The FEI - MOPJ spread was - 18 (week - on - week +9) [1] c. Profit and Inventory - PDH spot profits fluctuated, and paper - cargo profits dropped significantly. Port inventory decreased by 1.53%, and incoming shipments decreased by 13.21%, indicating a narrowing demand. The refinery storage capacity utilization rate increased by 1.21 pct, and external sales increased by 2.11%. The PDH operating rate was 62.25% (-10.82 pct), with Juzhengyuan Phase II under maintenance and Ruiheng out of operation due to a fault, expected to resume next week [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the domestic LPG market rose significantly influenced by geopolitical factors and the international market. The 03 basis was 96 (-83), the 02 - 03 monthly spread was 64 (-16), and the 03 - 04 monthly spread was -261 (-32). The prices of civil LPG showed a divergence, with prices in Shandong at 4460 (+20), in East China at 4372 (-151), and in South China at 4780 (-255). The cheapest deliverable was Shandong ether - after carbon four at 4350 (+10). The number of warehouse receipts was 5898 lots (-79). The FEI monthly spread increased, while the MB and CP monthly spreads slightly decreased. The oil - gas price ratio declined slightly. FEI strengthened compared to CP and MB, and MB - CP also strengthened. The internal and external PG - FEI c1 was 55.1 (-18.7). The CIF discount for propane in East China, China, was 85 (+8), and the FOB discounts for propane in AFEI, the Middle East, and the United States were 36 (-1.75), 20 (-9), and 62.52 US dollars (+11.72) respectively. Freight rates dropped. The FEI - MOPJ spread was -18 (week - on - week +9). The spot profit of PDH fluctuated, while the paper profit dropped significantly. Port inventory decreased by 1.53%, vessel arrivals decreased by 13.21%, and demand contracted. The refinery storage capacity utilization rate increased by 1.21 pct, and external sales increased by 2.11%. The PDH operating rate was 62.25% (-10.82 pct), with Juzhengyuan Phase II under maintenance and Ruiheng out of operation due to a fault, expected to resume next week. Overall, the internal and external valuations are moderately high. Although the PDH operating rate has decreased, the fundamentals remain tight in the short term due to the cold wave in the United States and the peak combustion season. As the cold wave ends and Middle - East supply resumes, the negative feedback from poor PDH profits and the maintenance season in March will weaken the driving force. The internal monthly spread valuation is neutral, and the fundamentals support bull spreads, but attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Price and Spread Data - **LPG Prices**: On January 23, 2026, the prices in South China, East China, and Shandong were 4780, 4372, and 4460 respectively, with daily changes of -35, -56, and -20 compared to the previous day [1] - **Propane Prices**: The CFR price of propane in South China was 614, and the CIF price in Japan was 584 on January 23, 2026 [1] - **CP Forecast Contract Price**: On January 23, 2026, it was 536, with a daily change of -4 [1] - **Other Product Prices**: The price of Shandong ether - after carbon four was 4350 (+10), and the price of Shandong alkylation oil was 7150 (unchanged) on January 23, 2026 [1] - **Paper Import Profit and Basis**: On January 23, 2026, the paper import profit was -127, and the main contract basis was 298, with daily changes of 45 and -96 respectively [1] - **Monthly Spreads**: The 03 basis was 96 (-83), the 02 - 03 monthly spread was 64 (-16), and the 03 - 04 monthly spread was -261 (-32) [1] 3.2 Market and Fundamental Indicators - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts was 5898 lots, a decrease of 79 [1] - **Price Relationships**: The FEI monthly spread increased, while the MB and CP monthly spreads slightly decreased. The oil - gas price ratio declined slightly. FEI strengthened compared to CP and MB, and MB - CP also strengthened. The internal and external PG - FEI c1 was 55.1 (-18.7) [1] - **Propane Discounts**: The CIF discount for propane in East China, China, was 85 (+8), and the FOB discounts for propane in AFEI, the Middle East, and the United States were 36 (-1.75), 20 (-9), and 62.52 US dollars (+11.72) respectively [1] - **Freight Rates**: Freight rates dropped [1] - **FEI - MOPJ Spread**: The FEI - MOPJ spread was -18 (week - on - week +9) [1] - **PDH Profits**: The spot profit of PDH fluctuated, while the paper profit dropped significantly [1] - **Inventory and Arrivals**: Port inventory decreased by 1.53%, and vessel arrivals decreased by 13.21% [1] - **Refinery Indicators**: The refinery storage capacity utilization rate increased by 1.21 pct, and external sales increased by 2.11% [1] - **PDH Operating Rate**: The PDH operating rate was 62.25% (-10.82 pct), with Juzhengyuan Phase II under maintenance and Ruiheng out of operation due to a fault, expected to resume next week [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the domestic market was greatly affected by geopolitical factors, rising first and then falling, with a slight upward shift in the weekly central level [1]. - The internal and external valuations are relatively high; the external supply - demand pattern is expected to weaken, as the impact of fog in the US is expected to be small, and although the Middle East is tight in the short - term, it will be loose later; the combustion demand will end in February, and the PDH operation rate will decline [1]. - The domestic valuation is neutral, and the 2 - 3 and 3 - 4 spreads are in reverse arbitrage. Attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts in the future [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Data Changes - From 2026/01/13 to 2026/01/19, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, CP forecast contract price, Shandong ether - after carbon four, Shandong alkylation oil, paper import profit and main basis all had different degrees of changes. The daily changes on 2026/01/19 were - 75, 0, 30, 1, 1, 1, 20, 0, - 79, 45 respectively [1]. Daily Viewpoint - On Monday, the futures market dropped significantly. The 02 - 03 spread was 85 (+10), the 03 - 04 spread was - 256 (+3), and the 02 - 04 spread was - 171 (+13). At 10 p.m. on Monday, the FEI and CP paper prices reached 523 and 527 US dollars respectively, with small changes [1]. Weekly Viewpoint - The 02 basis was 138 (-41), the 02 - 03 spread was 70 (+15), and the 03 - 04 spread was - 250 (-58) [1]. - The prices of domestic gas increased. The price in Shandong was 4440 (+40), in East China was 4523 (+56), and in South China was 5035 (+195). The cheapest deliverable was Shandong ether - after carbon four at 4340 (-50) [1]. - There were 5977 warehouse receipts (-241). The FEI and CP spreads increased, the MB spread decreased, the oil - gas ratio weakened, and FEI strengthened compared with CP and MB [1]. - The PG - FEI spread was 73.6 (-11.9), and the PG - CP spread was 69.6 (-8). The arrival discount of propane in East China, China was 77 (-2); the FOB discounts of AFEI, Middle East, and US propane were 37.75 (+3.75), 29 (-1), and 50.8 US dollars (+9.12) respectively [1]. - Freight rates increased. The rate from the US Gulf to Japan was 139 (+7). The FEI - MOPJ spread was - 27 (weekly +12) [1]. - PDH profits were significantly repaired but still poor. Port inventory decreased by 4.9%, ship arrivals increased by 2.7%, and overall shipments increased significantly. The refinery storage capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.66 pct, and external sales decreased by 0.19% [1]. - The PDH operation rate was 73.07% (-2.54 pct), and there were expectations of multiple device shutdowns in February (Juzhengyuan Phase II and Zhongjing Phase II), with the PDH operation rate expected to continue to decline [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Report Core View - The LPG market is characterized by a tight supply of Middle Eastern resources, rising premiums, and high prices in winter. The 1 - month CP official price is approaching release. The internal and external valuations are high, but the driving force is weak, and the internal and external trading logics are differentiated. The upward driving force of FEI is limited, and the domestic market needs to focus on the negative feedback between warehouse receipts and PDH, with high uncertainty [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Price and Basis - On December 15 - 19, 2025, the prices of Shandong LPG, propane CIF Japan, Shandong ether - after carbon four, etc. fluctuated. The lowest delivery location was Shandong, with a basis of 143 and a daily change of (- 19). The 01 - 02 month spread was 145 (+ 26), the 02 - 03 month spread was 166 (+ 5), and the 03 - 04 month spread was - 185 (+ 21). The FEI was 512 (+ 6) and the CP was 498 (- 1) US dollars/ton [4] Market Trends - The LPG futures price rebounded. The 01 basis was 162 (- 187), the 01 - 02 month spread was 119 (+ 35), and the 03 - 04 month spread was - 206 (+ 33). The number of warehouse receipts was 3368 lots (- 108). Domestic civil LPG prices were differentiated, with the most suitable delivery product being Shandong at 4380 (- 50), East China at 4398 (- 21), and South China at 4500 (+ 80). The FEI month spread strengthened, the CP month spread weakened, and the oil - gas ratio fluctuated [4] Profit and Inventory - The PDH spot profit was weak, but the futures profit rebounded. The number of arriving ships decreased by 7.64%, and the port inventory decreased by 7.89%. The refinery commercial volume increased by 0.82%, and the refinery inventory decreased by 0.03%. The PDH operating rate was 75% (+ 2.13 pct) [4]

台H 研究中心能化团队 2025/12/16 LP G 内院CFR华 CP预测合 山东烷基 山东液化气 丙烷CIF日本 山东醚后碳四 纸面进口利润 日期 主力基差 华南液化气 华东液化气 同价 化油 E 2025/12/09 549 4440 4392 4450 596 511 4550 7100 -395 199 2025/12/10 4424 4370. 4570 7100 -429 4440 600 557 245 198 2025/12/11 4415 4400 525 4570 7130 4420 610 564 -519 200 2025/12/12 4419 4430 515 4420 600 550 4560 7130 -440 350 2025/12/15 4460 4550 7130 -357 4460 4413 202 510 279 l 日度变化 30 -5 -5 -10 0 83 -71 40 -6 |周一，民用气方面，华东4413（-6），山东4460（+30），华南4460（+40）。懿后碳四4550（-10）。最低交割地为华东，基差24 日度变化 ０（-32），01-02月差1 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The Middle East LPG supply is tight, and prices are unlikely to drop significantly in winter; the domestic LPG market is expected to be weak in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the subsequent PDH operation under high costs and the situation of factory - warehouse warrants [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Price and Basis - On Friday, for civil LPG, the price in East China was 4419 (+4), in Shandong was 4430 (+30), and in South China was 4420 (+0). The price of ether - after carbon four was 4560 (-10). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of 26 [4] - The PG futures price dropped due to falling oil prices, PDH shutdown news, and an increase in warrants. The basis was 265 (+122), the 01 - 02 month - spread was 84 (+5), and the 03 - 04 month - spread was -223 (-12). The number of warrants was 5476 lots (+865) [4] External Market and Arbitrage - The external paper market first rose and then fell. The FEI and CP month - spreads strengthened, while the MB month - spread weakened; the oil - gas ratio declined. The domestic - foreign relationship weakened, with PG - CP at 71 (-28) and PG - FEI at 65 (-14). The US - Asia arbitrage window opened [4] Premium and Freight - The East China propane arrival premium was 85 (-7). The AFBI, Middle East, and US propane FOB premiums were 42 (+12), 42 (+17), and 47 (+4) respectively. Freight rates increased slightly [4] Profit and Operation - The PDH spot and futures profits weakened; the alkylation unit performance deteriorated; the MTBE profit fluctuated. The chemical demand profit was poor, but the operation was stable, with the PDH operation rate at 72.87% (+2.65pct) [4] Inventory and Supply - The arrival volume increased by 12.25%, and the port inventory increased by 3.22%; the external supply increased slightly by 1.3%, and the refinery storage capacity increased slightly by 0.27% [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The PG main contract fluctuated upward. Domestic civil gas prices dropped significantly, while external market prices rose sharply. The profit of PDH decreased. With low arrivals, reduced external supply, and decreased port and factory inventories, supported by chemical demand and the expected recovery of combustion demand, and considering that there is no pressure on inventory and downstream purchasing willingness has increased, it is expected that the spot price will maintain a slight increase. Propane is still greatly affected by the China - US tariff policy, and cautious participation is recommended [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Changes - On Tuesday, the decline of civil gas continued. In the East China region, the price was 4274 (-8), in Shandong it was 4260 (-10), and in South China it was 4400 (-10). The price of ether - post carbon four was 4400 (-30). The lowest delivery location was Shandong, with a basis of -87 (-18). The 11 - 12 spread was 89 (+2), and the 12 - 01 spread was 98 (-5). FEI and CP increased to 504 (+9) and 462 (+4) US dollars/ton respectively [4] Weekly View - The PG main contract fluctuated upward. The basis was -69 (-49), the 11 - 12 spread was 90 (-47), and the 12 - 01 spread was 113 (-1). Domestic civil gas prices dropped significantly. The cheapest delivery product was East China civil gas at 4279 (-66); in Shandong it was 4360 (+160), and in South China it was 4405 (-55). There were 2416 warehouse receipts, with 2300 from Wanhua, an increase of 64 from Yunda, and an increase of 52 from Haiyu Petrochemical. External market prices rose sharply; the FEI spread was -6.25 US dollars (+3.75), and the CP spread was -8 US dollars (-4). PG - CP was 114 (-17); PG - FEI was 79 (-33). FEI - CP was 35 (+15). The US - Asia arbitrage window opened. The CP South China CIF discount was 74 (-4). The freight from the US Gulf to Japan was 116 (+0), and from the Middle East to the Far East was 56 (-4). The FEI - MOPJ decreased but the switching window was still open, at -82.5 (-11.5). The PDH profit decreased. With low arrivals and reduced external supply, both port and factory inventories decreased. Supported by chemical demand and the expected recovery of combustion demand, the PDH operating rate was 71.66% (+2.9 pct) due to the restart of Hebei Haiwei and the increased load of Wanda Tianhong, but the second - phase of Zhongjing shut down again. Next week, Lihuayi Weiyuan is expected to resume production [4]