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LPG早报-20251029
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-29 00:47
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The PG main contract fluctuated upward. Domestic civil gas prices dropped significantly, while external market prices rose sharply. The profit of PDH decreased. With low arrivals, reduced external supply, and decreased port and factory inventories, supported by chemical demand and the expected recovery of combustion demand, and considering that there is no pressure on inventory and downstream purchasing willingness has increased, it is expected that the spot price will maintain a slight increase. Propane is still greatly affected by the China - US tariff policy, and cautious participation is recommended [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Changes - On Tuesday, the decline of civil gas continued. In the East China region, the price was 4274 (-8), in Shandong it was 4260 (-10), and in South China it was 4400 (-10). The price of ether - post carbon four was 4400 (-30). The lowest delivery location was Shandong, with a basis of -87 (-18). The 11 - 12 spread was 89 (+2), and the 12 - 01 spread was 98 (-5). FEI and CP increased to 504 (+9) and 462 (+4) US dollars/ton respectively [4] Weekly View - The PG main contract fluctuated upward. The basis was -69 (-49), the 11 - 12 spread was 90 (-47), and the 12 - 01 spread was 113 (-1). Domestic civil gas prices dropped significantly. The cheapest delivery product was East China civil gas at 4279 (-66); in Shandong it was 4360 (+160), and in South China it was 4405 (-55). There were 2416 warehouse receipts, with 2300 from Wanhua, an increase of 64 from Yunda, and an increase of 52 from Haiyu Petrochemical. External market prices rose sharply; the FEI spread was -6.25 US dollars (+3.75), and the CP spread was -8 US dollars (-4). PG - CP was 114 (-17); PG - FEI was 79 (-33). FEI - CP was 35 (+15). The US - Asia arbitrage window opened. The CP South China CIF discount was 74 (-4). The freight from the US Gulf to Japan was 116 (+0), and from the Middle East to the Far East was 56 (-4). The FEI - MOPJ decreased but the switching window was still open, at -82.5 (-11.5). The PDH profit decreased. With low arrivals and reduced external supply, both port and factory inventories decreased. Supported by chemical demand and the expected recovery of combustion demand, the PDH operating rate was 71.66% (+2.9 pct) due to the restart of Hebei Haiwei and the increased load of Wanda Tianhong, but the second - phase of Zhongjing shut down again. Next week, Lihuayi Weiyuan is expected to resume production [4]
LPG早报-20250619
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-19 01:47
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The fundamentals of the LPG market are improving marginally but still face pressure, and geopolitical risks are significant. It is recommended to operate with caution [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Data Price and Profit - The cheapest deliverable is Shandong civil gas at 4570. PP prices rose, PDH production profit worsened, and FEI production profit was lower than CP. PG futures prices increased significantly, with the 07 - 09 spread changing from -46 to 114 [1] - Civil gas prices rose significantly, and the cheapest deliverable became East China civil gas at 4603. Shandong showed signs of stabilization; East China was generally weak due to the expected commissioning of Zhenhai Phase II but improved marginally due to the postponed commissioning of Daxie; South China's spot prices rebounded due to typhoon - affected arrivals. The PG futures market was strong, the basis of the 07 contract weakened to 221 (-130), and the 07 - 09 spread was 195 (+10) [1] - Outer - market prices strengthened significantly, mainly affected by geopolitical factors. The PG - CP spread reached 18 US dollars (+27), and the FEI - CP spread was -19 (+31). Freight rates increased, and the waiting time at the Panama Canal for VLGCs decreased [1] Production Profit and Spread - PDH production profit worsened, FEI production profit was lower than CP; alkylation oil profitability decreased significantly; MTBE gas - fractionation etherification profit increased, isomerization etherification profit decreased; FEI - MOPJ and naphtha cracking spreads declined [1] Inventory and Supply - Demand - Port and factory inventories decreased. Arrivals and out - shipments declined, and it is expected that out - shipments will increase and arrivals will decrease in the future [1] - Chemical demand improved overall, with the PDH operating rate rising to 64.3% and the alkylation operating rate rising to 48.18%. MTBE production also increased significantly, and a large number of MTBE export orders supported prices [1] - As temperatures rise, combustion demand is expected to decline. The number of registered warrants was 9005 lots (-335) [1]