运营优衣库的迅销集团预计2026财年合并净利润将小幅增长，达到4350亿日元。迅销正将增 长重心从中国市场转向其他地区，美国的重要性不断上升。该公司通过涨价来抵消关税的影 响，但也存在引发消费下滑的风险…… 运营优衣库的迅销集团于10月9日发布消息称，预计2026财年（截至2026年8月）合并净利 润（国际会计准则）将较上财年小幅增长，达到4350亿日元。在预计连续6年刷新最高利润 的情况下，令人担忧的是将全面受到特朗普关税影响的北美业务。该公司打算通过涨价来抵 消关税的影响，但同时也隐藏着在全球最大市场引发消费下滑的风险。 预计2026财年销售收益（相当于销售额）将增长10%，达到3.75万亿日元。 2025财年（截至2025年8月）北美业务的营业收入为2711亿日元，同比增长25%。在美 国，提高关税前的库存已基本见底。在迅销在东京都内召开的记者会上，首席财务官 （CFO）冈崎健表示："已通过调整价格消化了关税导致的成本上升"，同时透露称，已对部 分商品实施涨价。 迅销此前曾就2025财年的"业务利润"（销售收益减去销售成本、销售费用和管理费用后计算 得出）预测，关税将成为导致其降低约25亿日元的主要原因 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights Procter & Gamble's (P&G) Q4 fiscal year 2025 performance exceeding expectations, but warns of significant profit impacts due to tariffs in fiscal year 2026, with an estimated additional cost of $1 billion [2][4]. - P&G reported a 2% increase in net sales to $20.89 billion, surpassing market expectations, with earnings per share at $1.48, also above the anticipated $1.42 [2][3]. - The sales growth was primarily driven by price increases and product mix optimization, particularly in the personal care segment, which saw a 4% price rise [3][4]. Group 2 - The company anticipates that tariffs will result in approximately $1 billion in cost impacts for fiscal year 2026, with a post-tax effect of around $800 million, exceeding 1% of P&G's net sales of $84.3 billion for the fiscal year ending in June [4]. - P&G's CFO previously indicated that tariffs could impact the company's growth by $1 billion to $1.5 billion annually, with increased costs for imported goods and raw materials due to tariffs [4]. - In response to rising costs, P&G is focusing on improving productivity, shifting sourcing, and enhancing formulations, while also raising prices on products that contain locally unavailable raw materials [4]. Group 3 - The CEO emphasized the importance of providing higher value to consumers, who are becoming more discerning and opting for larger packages, seeking promotions, and in some cases, reducing spending [5]. - In pre-market trading, P&G's stock rose nearly 1%, although the company has seen a decline of about 6% year-to-date [6]. - Recent downgrades from Morgan Stanley and Evercore reflect concerns over organic sales weakness and P&G's market share loss on platforms like Amazon [6].

Core Viewpoint - The luxury goods industry is facing significant challenges, including leadership changes in major companies, declining sales growth, and a shift in consumer behavior towards high-quality replicas and alternatives [3][4][30]. Group 1: Leadership Changes and Performance - Recent leadership changes in top luxury brands like LVMH and Kering reflect a response to market pressures and declining performance [3][4]. - Major luxury brands are experiencing disappointing sales, with Hermès' growth slowing by 10 percentage points compared to last year, and Kering's Gucci facing a double-digit decline in sales for five consecutive quarters [4][9]. - LVMH's revenue fell short of market expectations, particularly in its wine and spirits segment, leading to a nearly 13% drop in its stock price this year [7][9]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Burberry reported a staggering 94% drop in profit, prompting the company to cut approximately 20% of its global workforce to save £60 million by fiscal year 2027 [4][5]. - From 2019 to 2024, the luxury goods sector saw economic profits triple, primarily due to price increases, but signs of slowdown are evident as this strategy loses effectiveness [4][30]. - Prada stands out with a 13% revenue increase in Q1 2025, driven by strong performance from its Miu Miu brand, while Kering's overall sales dropped by 14% [9][11]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The luxury market is experiencing a bifurcation, with core brands like Prada performing well while others like Gucci and YSL struggle [11][15]. - North America remains a stable market for luxury brands, with Hermès and Prada achieving growth of 11% and 9.9% respectively, while Japan shows a remarkable recovery with a 25% increase for Richemont [18][19]. - The luxury sector is witnessing a shift in consumer preferences, with a notable decline in the number of luxury consumers in North America by 12.5% from 2022 to 2024 [32]. Group 4: Product Performance - Leather goods continue to be a stronghold for luxury brands, with Hermès' leather and harness business growing by 10% [24][25]. - In contrast, the wine and spirits segment of LVMH saw an 8% decline, indicating a significant disparity in performance across different product categories [25][26]. - The demand for high-end watches and jewelry is declining, with Rolex's secondary market prices dropping over 30% from their peak two years ago [28][30]. Group 5: Strategic Challenges - The effectiveness of price increases as a strategy is waning, with brands like Prada and Balenciaga implementing price hikes in early 2025, citing inflation and rising costs [30][31]. - The rise of high-quality replicas is challenging traditional luxury brands, with a significant portion of consumers now openly purchasing and wearing these alternatives [33][35]. - The luxury industry faces a complex landscape of changing consumer demographics, economic uncertainties, and evolving retail channels, necessitating a reevaluation of strategies [35][37].