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每日投行/机构观点梳理(2025-07-01)
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-07-01 08:26
Group 1: Federal Reserve Predictions - Goldman Sachs anticipates the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in September instead of December, citing lower-than-expected inflation impacts from tariffs [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts three rate cuts of 25 basis points each in September, October, and December, adjusting the terminal rate forecast to 3-3.25% [1] - Morgan Stanley analysts believe the likelihood of rate cuts in the upcoming meetings remains low, with most Fed officials supporting a cautious stance [2] Group 2: Corporate Profitability and Tariffs - Goldman Sachs highlights that U.S. corporate profit margins will face significant challenges in the upcoming earnings season due to the direct impact of tariffs, which have increased costs by approximately 10 percentage points since the beginning of the year [1] - The report indicates that while most of the increased costs are expected to be passed on to customers, if companies are forced to absorb higher-than-expected costs, profit margins will be under pressure [1] Group 3: Currency and Economic Data - Analysts from Deutsche Bank suggest that the outlook for the U.S. dollar depends on the underlying reasons for rate cut expectations, with potential short-term rebounds if inflation impacts from tariffs are limited [3] - Dutch International Group anticipates that upcoming U.S. economic data, particularly the non-farm payroll report, may provide support for the dollar index, limiting its decline [4] Group 4: Commodity Prices and Market Trends - CITIC Securities maintains a bullish outlook for copper prices, predicting they will rise to $10,000-$11,000 per ton in the second half of the year, supported by stable economic growth in China and the U.S. [6] - The report emphasizes that the copper market remains tight, with limited upstream production and a need for further macroeconomic policy support to sustain price increases [6] Group 5: Investment Opportunities - Baosheng Group suggests that while the U.S. stock market presents unique opportunities, diversifying investments into Europe, China, and India may yield better value and risk-adjusted returns [5] - The report highlights the attractiveness of U.S. corporate sectors, particularly selected tech stocks, defensive stocks, and high-dividend stocks [5]
广发证券:深海资源开发的政策催化空间充足 行业龙头积极推进深海采矿
news flash· 2025-06-30 23:57
广发证券研报表示,在海洋强国战略指引下,国内后续有望推出相应政策推动深海经济发展,重点方向 包括深海采矿、深海油气开发、深海生物资源利用等。从产业化角度来看,深海资源开发已具备经济 性。根据目前的深海矿产开采价值,海底石油和天然气居首;其次是滨海砂矿,包括砂、石等建筑用材, 锡砂等;最后是深海的多金属软泥和多金属结核。深海矿产资源具备的高经济价值和战略价值,使得深 海采矿成为深海资源开发的重要方向。 ...