AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 对于通过降息应对经济衰退的选项，戴蒙明确表示反对："显然，如果因衰退而被迫降息，这本身就是 坏事。"他更倾向于通过适度经济增长自然压低利率，但承认当前政策环境充满不确定性。 "监管和规则制定领域的独立性正在流失。"戴蒙暗示，新主席人选可能影响美联储的政策路径。目前市 场押注理事克里斯托弗·沃勒（Christopher Waller）为最大热门，其主张"通过控制货币供应抑制通胀"的 立场与特朗普的降息诉求存在潜在冲突。 鲍威尔的任期将于2026年5月结束，特朗普政府已明确表示不会延长其任期，理由是对其"抗通胀不 力"的不满。这一政治干预可能加剧市场对政策不确定性的担忧。 尽管戴蒙发出警告，但市场仍对美联储宽松政策抱有强烈期待。芝商所（CME）美联储观察工具显 示，投资者预计10月和12月会议各降息25个基点的概率分别为90%和75%。 这一预期推动美股持续走高：追踪标普500指数的ETF（SPY）年内上涨14.8%，追踪纳斯达克100指数 的ETF（QQQ）涨幅达18.1%。社交媒体平台Stocktwits的情绪数据显示，散户对SPY的看涨看跌比率高 达 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant fluctuations in gold prices due to escalating trade barriers in the U.S., leading to increased market fears of economic recession and a subsequent sell-off in U.S. stocks and bonds [1][3] - Gold prices surged to a historic high of over $3500 per ounce before experiencing a sharp decline of over $200 in a single day, indicating a volatile market environment [1][3] - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive despite short-term volatility, driven by factors such as increased gold reserves by central banks and a weakening U.S. dollar due to rising fiscal deficits [3][6] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's stance against interest rate cuts amid rising inflation and low growth creates a complex economic environment, which may temporarily suppress gold prices but supports its long-term value [3][6] - Investors are encouraged to view the recent price corrections in gold as opportunities to optimize their holdings, suggesting a strategy of low-cost accumulation and diversified investment [6] - Key upcoming events to monitor include the impact of tariff policies and U.S. employment and inflation data, which could influence gold price movements in the near term [6]

随着美国总统特朗普加大对美联储主席鲍威尔的攻击力度，美国的资本市场正在进入一个"至暗时刻"。4月21日，美国遭遇股债汇"三杀"。 美国股市三大股指的跌幅均超过2%，其中科技"七巨头"的大幅下挫，对纳斯达克指数产生了巨大影响。标普500指数收盘时，更是较2月19日创下的历史收 盘高点，下挫了16%。 面对金融市场的惨淡，美国民众把气撒到了特朗普的头上。人们普遍认为，这场风暴的导火索，正是特朗普对美联储主席鲍威尔的解雇威胁。特朗普声 称"鲍威尔越早走人越好"，并要求美联储立即降息以挽救经济。 特朗普多次公开施压降息，甚至研究解雇鲍威尔的合法路径。尽管法律学者普遍认为，依据1935年《联邦储备法》，总统无权因政策分歧罢免美联储主席， 但市场担忧特朗普政府另辟蹊径，通过扩大总统权力，摧毁美联储的独立性基石。 回顾近段时间特朗普的举动，我们可以发现，特朗普已经开始对鲍威尔"逼宫"。4月15日，白宫文件泄露称，特朗普政府正在研究解雇鲍威尔法律路径； 在这之后，特朗普公然宣称"美联储是经济杀手"，并在"真实社交"平台上发帖要求立刻降息，否则解雇鲍威尔。 这场逼宫大戏背后，是特朗普为挽救经济恶化形势的疯狂赌博。美国3月CPI ...

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index is experiencing significant depreciation, reaching its lowest level since early April 2022, primarily due to the impact of the US government's tariff policies and the resulting economic uncertainties [1][2]. Economic Impact - The US dollar index has dropped over 5.5% in April and nearly 10% year-to-date, indicating a strong downward trend [2]. - Tariff policies are projected to impact US GDP by approximately 3 percentage points, contributing to economic instability [5]. - The US economy is entering a "stagflation trap," with rising inflation expectations and declining consumer confidence due to tariff-induced uncertainties [4]. Market Reactions - Recent financial market trends show a "sell everything" mentality, with a liquidity shock indicating a growing concern over the dollar's status as a safe asset [7]. - There is a notable shift of funds from US assets to safer alternatives like the Swiss franc, Japanese yen, and gold, accelerating the process of "de-dollarization" [8][9]. Federal Reserve Dynamics - The independence of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is being undermined, with increasing pressure from the government to lower interest rates, which could further weaken the dollar [10][12]. - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has indicated that the economic impacts of tariff increases may exceed expectations, complicating monetary policy decisions [11]. Inflation and Consumer Sentiment - Despite a recent drop in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), tariffs are expected to be a key factor influencing future inflation trends, with concerns about persistent high inflation [6]. - Market sentiment is deteriorating, with households and businesses reporting increased uncertainty regarding economic prospects, largely attributed to trade policy concerns [12].