Core Viewpoint - The baking industry is experiencing a significant wave of closures, with many popular brands failing to sustain operations due to increased competition and rising costs, leading to a rapid market reshuffle [8][9][56]. Group 1: Current State of the Baking Industry - A large number of popular baking brands, including "BreadTalk" and "Gontran Cherrier," have recently closed multiple locations or ceased operations entirely, indicating a troubling trend in the industry [10][17][25]. - The closure rate in the baking sector is accelerating, with 2024 and early 2025 seeing a continuous stream of brand shutdowns, including notable names like "Panda Not Going" and "ABC Cooking Studio" [29][30]. - As of December 2024, the baking sector saw a net increase of only 8,000 stores, with a closure rate of 34.2% compared to an opening rate of 37.1% [30]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Trends - Despite the closures, the baking market remains vibrant, with new brands emerging that focus on product innovation and quality, appealing to younger consumers [34][58]. - The market is witnessing a bifurcation into high-end and low-cost segments, with premium brands emphasizing quality and unique offerings, while budget brands focus on affordability and high volume [58][60]. - Major players like "Hai Di Lao" and "Cha Yan Yue Se" are entering the baking space with competitive pricing strategies, which may disrupt existing market dynamics and challenge high-priced brands [51][62]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The baking industry is expected to continue its rapid reshuffle, driven by supply chain efficiency, consumer insights, and brand resilience, with a focus on health, digitalization, and unique consumer experiences [62][63]. - Brands that can effectively navigate these trends and establish a strong market presence are likely to thrive, while those lacking core competitiveness may face accelerated exit from the market [63].

Core Viewpoint - The well-known bakery brand Bread Talk has closed all 11 of its stores in Chengdu, marking a significant retreat from the market and highlighting the challenges faced by established brands in the baking industry [1][3][7]. Group 1: Company Overview - Bread Talk, founded in Singapore in 2000, was once a leading player in the bakery sector, achieving rapid expansion and reaching 418 stores in China by 2014 [9][11]. - The brand's revenue from mainland China accounted for 31.6% of its total revenue in 2014, making it a crucial market for the company [11]. - However, the company has faced significant challenges, including food safety issues and an unstable franchise model, leading to a decline in consumer trust and a series of store closures [12][14][15]. Group 2: Recent Developments - The recent closure of all stores in Chengdu was framed as a "renovation and upgrade" by the company, but it has been revealed to be a complete shutdown [3][7]. - Since 2021, Bread Talk has experienced negative growth in store numbers, with only one new store opening this year, leaving a total of 173 operational stores primarily in Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Shanghai [18]. - The company has faced legal challenges, including two consumption restriction orders in 2021 and 2023, indicating ongoing financial difficulties [8]. Group 3: Industry Context - The bakery industry is undergoing significant upheaval, with many once-popular brands facing closures. In 2024, the industry saw a net increase of only 8,000 stores despite 10.3 million new openings and 9.5 million closures [22]. - The competitive landscape is shifting, with new brands emerging and established ones struggling to maintain market share. Brands like Good Day and others are expanding aggressively, while traditional players like Bread Talk are retreating [30][31]. - The rise of cross-industry competition, with tea and restaurant brands entering the bakery space, adds further pressure on traditional bakery brands [31].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising trend of baked goods in supermarkets, highlighting their increasing sales and popularity as a response to the challenges faced by traditional fresh food categories [3][10][19]. Group 1: Sales Performance of Baked Goods - Sam's Club's Swiss roll became a phenomenon, contributing 8%-10% to monthly sales in some stores, with annual sales exceeding 1 billion yuan [6]. - Hema's strawberry box sales approached 200 million yuan during the recent sales season, with four baked goods surpassing 100 million yuan in sales since 2020 [6][10]. - The "big mooncake" from Pang Donglai reportedly exceeded 200 million yuan in annual sales [7]. Group 2: Shift in Supermarket Strategy - Supermarkets are shifting focus from fresh produce to baked goods due to the inability to differentiate in the fresh food market, which has been impacted by e-commerce and community group buying [9][10]. - Dazhonghua's new brands "Runfa Workshop" and "Good Wheat" emphasize fresh and healthy baked goods, with products like potato bread selling out on launch day [11][13]. - The bakery segment has significantly boosted sales for stores like Yonghui, with some locations seeing over 520% year-on-year growth in bakery sales after adjustments [13]. Group 3: Competitive Pricing and Quality - Supermarket baked goods are gaining popularity due to their high cost-performance ratio, with prices significantly lower than specialty bakeries [19][21]. - For example, Sam's cranberry bagels are priced at 23.8 yuan for seven, while Costco's cinnamon raisin bagels are 19.5 yuan for six [19]. - Supermarkets maintain quality by using premium ingredients, such as 100% animal cream and imported New Zealand milk powder, while also employing longer fermentation processes for better flavor [23][24]. Group 4: Marketing and Consumer Engagement - Supermarkets leverage social media platforms like Xiaohongshu to promote new products and engage consumers, creating a buzz around popular items [27][31]. - Special promotions and limited-time offers during holidays further drive consumer interest and foot traffic to stores [29][30]. - The combination of competitive pricing, quality ingredients, and effective marketing strategies has positioned supermarket baked goods as attractive options for consumers [24][27]. Group 5: Industry Trends and Future Outlook - The traditional bakery sector is facing challenges, with notable brands like Christine and Huan Niu Cake House shutting down due to financial difficulties [15][17]. - The market share of traditional bakeries is declining as supermarkets capture a larger portion of the baked goods market, with offline supermarkets accounting for 37.7% of the main consumption channels in 2024 [17]. - The competition in the baking sector is expected to intensify, with supermarkets increasingly focusing on product innovation and consumer trends to differentiate themselves [41].