Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the tariff strategy of the Trump administration from the perspective of the U.S., highlighting its implications on trade relations and economic performance [2] Group 1: Tariff Strategy - The Trump administration's tariffs were aimed at reducing the trade deficit, particularly with China, which was approximately $419 billion in 2018 [2] - The tariffs imposed on Chinese goods amounted to about $360 billion, significantly impacting various sectors, including technology and agriculture [2] - The article discusses the retaliatory measures taken by China, which included tariffs on $110 billion worth of U.S. goods, affecting American exporters [2] Group 2: Economic Impact - The tariffs led to an increase in consumer prices, with estimates suggesting a rise of 0.3% to 0.5% in inflation due to higher costs of imported goods [2] - The U.S. manufacturing sector experienced fluctuations, with some industries benefiting from protectionist measures while others faced increased costs and supply chain disruptions [2] - The overall GDP growth rate was affected, with projections indicating a potential decrease of 0.1% to 0.2% in the long term due to trade tensions [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The article suggests that the long-term sustainability of the tariff strategy is questionable, as it may lead to a fragmented global trade system [2] - There is a potential for future administrations to reassess and possibly reverse these tariffs, depending on the evolving economic landscape [2] - The ongoing trade negotiations and their outcomes will be crucial in determining the future of U.S.-China trade relations and the effectiveness of the tariff strategy [2]

Core Insights - The report highlights the adjustments in China's tariff strategy in response to U.S. non-tariff measures, including export controls on rare earths and threats of increased tariffs by Trump, indicating a growing division in U.S. political circles regarding tariff strategies [2][10] - It discusses the strategic flaws in Trump's tariff approach, emphasizing the need for a more nuanced strategy that includes non-tariff barriers and targeted measures rather than broad high tariffs [3][10] - The report suggests that U.S. policymakers are more focused on strategic and security issues rather than just economic outcomes, indicating a potential shift in how trade agreements with China may be structured [3][10] Summary by Sections Section 1: Adjustments in China's Tariff Strategy - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs has increased due to U.S. non-tariff measures since September, including expanded sanctions and new export controls on rare earths [2][10] - China has adopted a more proactive approach compared to the previous tariff phase, utilizing tactical agreements to gain strategic space without compromising core interests [10] - The U.S. political landscape shows bipartisan concern over China's export control measures, indicating a significant shift in strategy [10] Section 2: Flaws in Trump's Tariff Strategy - Trump's historical pattern of releasing strong pre-meeting signals to pressure opponents is noted, with a critique of the economic viability of reciprocal tariffs [3][10] - Recommendations for a refined approach include maintaining conditional tariffs and focusing on targeted export control lists to minimize collateral damage to domestic supply chains [3][10] Section 3: Desired Trade Agreements with China - U.S. policymakers express a preference for smaller, more manageable trade agreements rather than large-scale deals, which may require geopolitical concessions [3][10] - The urgency for Trump to secure a trade agreement is highlighted, as the economic costs of a non-agreement primarily impact the U.S. [3][10] - The report indicates that while formal agreements may not be reached, the ongoing negotiations have already led to some tariff easing effects for China [3][10]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent resurgence of Trump's tariff threats in October, highlighting China's more composed response and increasing divisions within the U.S. regarding tariff strategies [1][6][24] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs has been influenced by non-tariff measures taken by the U.S. since September, including the expansion of sanctions and export controls on rare earths [2][7][24] - U.S. policymakers have noted two significant changes in China's tariff strategy: the use of tactical agreements to gain strategic space and an increase in China's proactive stance compared to the previous tariff conflict [2][10][24] Group 2 - Critics from think tanks like Cato and AEI argue that Trump's tariff strategy has inherent flaws, including economic inefficiency and potential harm to domestic supply chains [3][11][25] - Recommendations from U.S. strategic circles suggest a shift away from broad high tariffs towards more targeted non-tariff barriers and conditional tariffs on critical sectors [3][14][25] - The article emphasizes that U.S. policymakers are concerned about the short-term focus of Trump's negotiations, which may overlook long-term strategic interests [4][15][26] Group 3 - There is a general consensus among U.S. policymakers that any trade agreement with China should prioritize strategic and security concerns over visible economic gains [4][15][26] - The article highlights the urgency for Trump to reach a verifiable agreement, as the lack of a formal deal has led to significant economic costs for the U.S., including a sharp decline in agricultural orders [4][18][26] - The preference for smaller, more manageable trade agreements over large-scale deals is noted, as the latter may require geopolitical concessions that do not align with U.S. interests [5][19][27]

10月特朗普关税威胁再起，但此次中方更从容，美方分歧加大。本文从美方视角出发，客观梳理美国政 界对特朗普关税策略的批评及建议，为理解美国关税未来可能取向提供框架化参考。 一、美方视角下，中国关税策略出现了哪些调整？ 本次关税不确定性来源于9月以来美国非关税措施。 9月，美国BIS扩大制裁范围；10月9日，商务部出台 稀土出口管制措施；10日，特朗普威胁加征100%关税，对关键软件实施出口管制，发表不利言论，但随 后，特朗普又做改口。此次，美国政界对自身关税策略的分歧扩大。 美国政界认为中国关税策略出现两点新变化。 一是中方以战术性协议换取战略发展空间，包括TikTok协 议、农产品采购等，这些措施不损害中方核心利益，但可满足特朗普诉求；二是与关税1.0时期相比，中 方增强了主动性，包括停止购买美豆，在会晤前主动创设议题和谈判筹码。 出口管制措施引起美国两党普遍担忧及警惕。 今年4月中方首次出台稀土出口管制措施，主要针对的是 境内出口商；10月的出口管制新措施将域外适用首次写入条文。CSIS认为此次调整是长线策略的急剧升 级，众议院对华特设委员会呼吁采取行动巩固美国稀土供应链。 二、站在美国战略层视角，特朗普关 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Court of Appeals has temporarily halted a lower court's ban on Trump's tariff measures, providing the White House with a reprieve in a significant judicial battle affecting global trade [1][3] - The deadline for the cancellation of tariffs has been extended to June 9, allowing for further legal discussions on the legitimacy of the tariffs, which cover products like steel, aluminum, and automobiles [3] - If the appellate court or the Supreme Court supports the White House's position, punitive tariffs could remain in place for several months, impacting Trump's ability to fulfill campaign promises [3] Group 2 - The Trump administration is reportedly preparing alternative strategies to address the judicial challenges, including potentially using the Trade Expansion Act, which would require a lengthy investigation process [3] - Legal experts have raised concerns about the constitutional validity of Trump's tariff strategy, suggesting that it may overstep the legislative authority granted to Congress [3] - The ongoing judicial battle has led to a halt in tariff exemption applications for $3 billion worth of goods, causing delays in trade negotiations with multiple countries [3] Group 3 - The judicial ruling is reshaping global capital expectations, with emerging market bond funds seeing an influx of $3.7 billion in the week following the ban on tariffs, indicating a reassessment of the sustainability of tariff policies [4] - Market analysts suggest that the conditions for the effectiveness of tariff policies are being re-evaluated, which could diminish their deterrent effect [4]

Core Viewpoint - Dan Quayle expresses skepticism about Trump's handling of U.S.-Russia relations and the Ukraine conflict, suggesting that Putin has no intention of ending the conflict before achieving his goals in Ukraine [1][2]. Group 1: U.S.-Russia Relations - Quayle criticizes Trump's approach, stating that Trump has not applied any pressure on Putin and has failed to leverage any negotiating chips [1][2]. - He believes that the lack of pressure on Russia undermines the U.S.-EU policy alliance and suggests that secondary sanctions should be considered if Russia does not agree to a ceasefire [2]. Group 2: Ukraine Conflict - Quayle asserts that Putin's ultimate goal is to destabilize Ukraine, and he has been successful in manipulating Trump's weaknesses [2][3]. - He identifies three potential actions that could pressure Putin to return to the negotiating table: utilizing Russian funds in Swiss banks for Ukraine, providing more weapons to Ukraine, and implementing secondary sanctions against Russia [2][3]. Group 3: Political Implications - Quayle warns that if Trump is perceived as a failure in the Ukraine conflict, it could have significant political repercussions for him [3]. - He emphasizes that while Americans dislike conflict, they also dislike losing, indicating that Trump's handling of the situation could impact his political capital [3]. Group 4: Economic Impact - Quayle expresses confusion over Trump's tariff strategy, suggesting it lacks coherence and could lead to long-term inflation due to delayed capital expenditures and disrupted supply chains [4].