1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The prices of steel, iron ore, coking coal and coke, and thermal coal are all in a state of volatile operation. The market is affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, raw material replenishment expectations, and seasonal and policy - related factors [1][3][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Steel Market Analysis - Yesterday, the main contract of rebar futures closed at 3,130 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,287 yuan/ton. The overall spot trading volume was average, with better low - price purchases during the morning price increase, increased speculative sentiment, and weaker trading in the afternoon. The basis first narrowed and then widened throughout the day, and the national building materials trading volume was 117,700 tons [1] Supply - Demand and Logic - The supply - demand fundamentals of building materials have no obvious contradictions, maintaining low production, low consumption, and low inventory. Plates are still restricted by high inventories, with limited marginal price fluctuations. In the short term, there are expectations of raw material replenishment in the market. Attention should be paid to environmental protection and seasonal production cuts, demand and inventory reduction, profit status, cost support, raw material replenishment, steel exports, and domestic policies [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Volatile; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [2] Iron Ore Market Analysis - Yesterday, iron ore futures prices fluctuated. The iron ore 2605 contract closed at 796.5 yuan/ton. Spot prices generally rose slightly, trading was average, traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and steel mills maintained on - demand replenishment, with purchase prices mostly following the market [3] Supply - Demand and Logic - The supply - demand pattern continues to tighten. Port inventories have increased significantly, but downstream procurement demand is weak. Due to limited liquidity of some port supplies and market concerns about future actual supply, iron ore prices are supported by a relatively high valuation. If relevant negotiations make clear progress, potential supply - demand contradictions may emerge, and prices may face downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the actual production cut rhythm of steel mills and changes in port inventory structure [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Volatile; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [4] Coking Coal and Coke Market Analysis - Yesterday, coking coal and coke futures showed a volatile pattern throughout the day, and the main contracts of both closed slightly lower. For imported Mongolian coal, the customs clearance volume decreased, and the quotations fluctuated with the market. The market is cautiously waiting and watching [5] Logic and View - As the end of the year approaches, the demand for capital repatriation increases, and speculative demand declines. For coking coal, the output of some coal mines has decreased, and with the stable customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal, the overall supply has slightly shrunk. Downstream enterprises mainly purchase for rigid needs and have a weak willingness to actively replenish inventory. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday downstream replenishment rhythm. For coke, the overall supply is stable. After the fourth round of price cuts, the production enthusiasm of enterprises is average. On the demand side, the current absolute value of hot metal production is low, and the post - holiday blast furnace restart is expected to further drive the increase in hot metal production. Attention should be paid to the restart progress of steel mills and changes in hot metal production [5][6] Strategy - Coking coal: Volatile; Coke: Volatile; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [6] Thermal Coal Market Analysis - In the producing areas, the supply of major coal - producing areas is tight due to factors such as the completion of annual production and sales tasks and face - moving operations. Coal mine inventories are generally low, and the sales of operating coal mines are good, with prices set according to the number of vehicles. In the short term, prices are expected to change little. At ports, the downward trend in the port market continues, but the decline has narrowed, and port inventories have decreased due to factors such as reduced shipments. Currently, downstream consumption has increased month - on - month, and with the expected impact of cold snaps in the future, market inquiries have increased, and demand is gradually improving. However, although inventories have declined, they are still at a relatively high level, and the later market consumption situation needs to be observed. For imported coal, the price difference between domestic and foreign trade is inverted, and the decline in the imported coal market has also narrowed, with both high - and low - calorie coal prices falling [7] Demand and Logic - Recently, coal prices have changed from weak to strong, and downstream consumption has improved. Due to coal mines completing their annual tasks, it is difficult for supply to improve significantly in the later stage. Attention should also be paid to the consumption situation affected by factors such as weather in January. The supply elasticity of coal is large, and attention should be paid to changes in the supply pattern, non - power coal consumption, and inventory replenishment [7] Strategy - None [7]

Copper - Copper prices have shown a volatile upward trend, with domestic refined copper imports maintaining losses [3][12] - The US GDP grew by 4.3% in Q3, the fastest rate in two years, driven by strong consumer spending, while the PCE price index rose to 2.9%, affecting future Fed rate cut expectations [3][12] - Domestic efforts are focused on stabilizing the real estate market, as indicated by a national construction meeting [3][12] - LME copper inventory increased by 825 tons to 158,575 tons, while Comex inventory rose by 3,879 tons to 427,435 tons [3][12] - Demand remains cautious, with downstream enterprises primarily purchasing based on immediate needs, despite a generally warm macroeconomic environment [3][12] - A strategy of buying on dips is recommended, but excessive chasing of high prices is discouraged [3][12] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel prices fell by 0.1% to $15,115 per ton, while SHFE nickel dropped by 0.14% to 121,180 yuan per ton [4][13] - LME nickel inventory increased by 216 tons to 254,604 tons, while SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 301 tons to 38,621 tons [4][13] - The Indonesian Nickel Mining Association reported a significant decrease in nickel ore production targets for 2026 [4][13] - Domestic social inventory of primary nickel has slightly increased, while LME inventory has decreased [4][14] - Caution is advised regarding price movements, as current prices have returned to previous levels [4][14] Aluminum & Aluminum Alloys - Alumina prices showed a slight increase, with AO2601 closing at 2,541 yuan per ton, up 0.83% [6][15] - SHFE aluminum prices also increased slightly, with AL2602 closing at 22,160 yuan per ton, up 0.16% [6][15] - Aluminum ingot prices are under pressure due to increased shipments and a return to production by major mining companies [6][15] - The market is facing potential inventory accumulation pressures as macroeconomic sentiment stabilizes [6][15] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices increased, with the main contract closing at 8,780 yuan per ton, up 1.68% [7][16] - Polysilicon prices showed a slight decline, with the main contract closing at 59,225 yuan per ton, down 0.91% [7][16] - Expectations of further environmental production cuts in the northwest may support industrial silicon prices in the short term [7][16] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures rose by 5.31% to 120,160 yuan per ton, with significant increases in both battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium carbonate prices [8][17] - Weekly production of lithium increased, while demand for ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate saw a decrease [8][17] - Market sentiment is influenced by expectations of weaker short-term mining operations, leading to rapid price increases in futures [8][17]

Copper - Copper prices experienced narrow fluctuations overnight, with domestic refined copper imports maintaining losses [3][9] - The macroeconomic outlook shows significant divergence among Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate cuts next year, while the market focuses on the new chairman's ability to maintain the Fed's policy independence [3][9] - China's LPR has remained unchanged for seven consecutive months [3][9] - LME copper inventory decreased by 2,650 tons to 157,750 tons, while Comex inventory increased by 4,247 tons to 423,556 tons [3][9] - Demand for copper is cautious, with downstream enterprises primarily purchasing based on immediate needs [3][9] - The strategy suggests maintaining a buy-on-dips approach but advises against excessive chasing of prices [3][9] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel rose by 2.42% to $15,260 per ton, while SHFE nickel increased by 2.82% to ¥122,130 per ton [4][10] - LME inventory decreased by 162 tons to 254,388 tons, while SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 1,320 tons to 38,922 tons [4][10] - The Indonesian Nickel Mining Association indicated a significant reduction in nickel ore production targets for 2026 [4][10] - Nickel prices saw a slight increase due to market sentiment, but caution is advised regarding actual implementation [4][10] Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum & Aluminum Alloys - Alumina prices showed a slight increase, with AO2601 closing at ¥2,515 per ton, up 0.56% [5][11] - SHFE aluminum experienced a slight decline, with AL2602 closing at ¥22,135 per ton, down 0.47% [5][11] - The market is facing pressure from increased shipments and the resumption of large-scale mining operations [5][11] - The aluminum price trend is expected to remain weak due to high inventory levels and macroeconomic sentiment [5][11] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices showed a slight decline, with the main contract closing at ¥8,595 per ton, down 0.52% [6][12] - Polysilicon prices also experienced a decline, with the main contract closing at ¥58,845 per ton, down 2.1% [6][12] - There are expectations of further environmental production cuts in the northwest, which may support industrial silicon prices [6][12] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures rose by 3.98% to ¥114,380 per ton, with significant increases in both battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium carbonate prices [7][14] - Weekly production of lithium increased by 47 tons to 22,045 tons, while demand for ternary materials decreased [7][14] - The market is experiencing strong demand expectations, with downstream stocking intentions remaining relatively strong [7][14]