1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - The price of steel products is expected to move in a range-bound manner, with its focus shifting downwards and showing a weak performance [1][3] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and mining - end news [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Steel Products - **Production Impact**: Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel producers will halt production from mid - to late January and resume around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting 741,000 tons of output. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills, 1 stopped on January 5, most will stop in mid - January, and some after January 20, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [2][3] - **Market Transaction**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% week - on - week decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase [3] - **Market Situation**: Steel products continued to decline yesterday, hitting a new low. In a weak supply - demand situation, market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, providing little price support [3] - **Later Concerns**: Macro policies and downstream demand [3] Aluminum Products - **Macro Factors**: The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged this week, but news of Powell's successor may impact the market [2] - **Raw Material Supply**: Some northern mining areas have reduced production due to weather. In Henan, bauxite mining in Xin'an stopped last weekend and is resuming, with an 80% drop in supply due to transportation issues. Southern domestic mines are stable, and domestic ore prices are expected to remain stable [3] - **Production Situation**: Domestic and Indonesian electrolytic aluminum projects are ramping up, and daily output is rising. The overall aluminum processing start - up rate was 60.9% last week, up 0.7 percentage points. Different sub - industries have different situations, with some affected by environmental protection, weather, and market demand [3] - **Inventory**: On January 26, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major consumption areas was 777,000 tons, up 28,000 tons from last Monday [3] - **Price Outlook**: Due to macro uncertainty and weak dollar, non - ferrous metals are strong. Aluminum prices are expected to remain high in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro events and downstream feedback [4] - **Later Concerns**: Changes in macro expectations, development of geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ☆☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆ [1] - Alumina: ☆☆☆ [1] - Casting Aluminum Alloy: ☆☆☆ [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆ [1] - Tin: ☆☆☆ [1] - Carbonate Lithium: ☆☆☆ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆ [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall market still needs to reduce volume, and there is still some potential in the current volume and price. The market is highly concerned about the geopolitical situation. The domestic copper market is mainly "supply exceeds demand". It is recommended to continue holding the option combination of selling call options with an exercise price of 104,000 and buying put options with an exercise price of 98,000 [1]. - The overseas macro uncertainty is strong, and the capital sentiment fluctuates rapidly. The Shanghai aluminum fluctuates around 24,000 yuan waiting for the driving force. The casting aluminum alloy follows the Shanghai aluminum to fluctuate, and the market activity is not high. The alumina balance continues to be in a significant surplus, and it is advisable to participate in short - selling when the basis is low [2]. - The zinc price has回调, the downstream acceptance is still limited, and the spot trading is weak. The short - term support is seen at 24,000 yuan/ton, and it is advisable to short - sell at high levels [3]. - The import window of aluminum continues to be open, and both the internal and external markets are in a low - level consolidation under oversupply. The supply - side pressure of lead increases, but the lead concentrate is still tight, and the lower support of Shanghai lead is seen at 17,000 yuan/ton [5]. - The Shanghai nickel fluctuates at a high level, and the stainless - steel traditional consumption season is off - season. The negative feedback risk is accumulating, but in the short term, it is still dominated by policy sentiment, and the long - position thinking is continued [6]. - The Shanghai tin continues to decline with position reduction. The long - and short - sides have different focuses. The internal and external explicit inventories of tin have increased significantly, and it is advisable to hold the high - level sold call options [7]. - The carbonate lithium fluctuates weakly, and the downstream acceptance of high prices is generally weak. The overall inventory reduction speed has slowed down significantly, and the short - term uncertainty is extremely strong [8]. - The industrial silicon is expected to shift from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction, and attention should be paid to the breakthrough at 9000 yuan/degree on the disk and whether the production reduction expectation of large factories is repeated [9]. - The polysilicon disk maintains fluctuations. Although the cancellation of export tax rebates is beneficial to short - term demand, the upward movement of the disk is still under pressure, and it should be participated in cautiously [10]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - The Shanghai copper oscillates around 100,000. The domestic social inventory has increased to 329,400 tons, and after the delivery and month - change of the 2601 contract, the domestic spot copper is quoted at a discount. The domestic refined copper output in January is expected to pick up month - on - month, and the domestic copper market is mainly "supply exceeds demand". Hold the option combination of selling call options with an exercise price of 104,000 and buying put options with an exercise price of 98,000 [1]. Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - The Shanghai aluminum oscillates. The spot premiums and discounts in East China, Central China, and Foshan are - 160 yuan, - 290 yuan, and 130 yuan respectively. The processing fee of aluminum rods has recovered to around 100 yuan, and the social inventories of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods have each increased by 13,000 tons. The casting aluminum alloy follows the Shanghai aluminum to fluctuate, and the waste aluminum is still in short supply. The domestic alumina operating capacity is maintained at around 95 million tons, and the balance is in a significant surplus. When the basis is low, participate in short - selling [2]. Zinc - The zinc price has回调, the downstream acceptance is limited, and the spot trading is weak. The Shanghai - London ratio oscillates at a low level, and the transfer between the internal and external zinc markets is not smooth. The high price has an obvious negative feedback on the consumption end. The short - term support is seen at 24,000 yuan/ton, and it is advisable to short - sell at high levels [3]. Aluminum - The import window of aluminum continues to be open, the LME aluminum inventory has dropped to 206,000 tons, and both the internal and external markets are in a low - level consolidation under oversupply. The supply - side pressure of lead increases in late January, but the lead concentrate is still tight, and the lower support of Shanghai lead is seen at 17,000 yuan/ton [5]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The Shanghai nickel fluctuates at a high level, and the stainless - steel traditional consumption season is off - season. The negative feedback risk is accumulating, but in the short term, it is still dominated by policy sentiment. The nickel inventory has increased by 2500 tons to 63,500 tons, the nickel - iron inventory has decreased by 1000 tons to 29,300 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory has decreased by 10,000 tons to 844,000 tons. Continue the long - position thinking [6]. Tin - The Shanghai tin continues to decline with position reduction. The long - side focuses on factors such as tight ore supply, while the short - side focuses on the reality of restricted demand under high prices. The internal and external explicit inventories of tin have increased significantly. Hold the high - level sold call options [7]. Carbonate Lithium - The carbonate lithium fluctuates weakly. The downstream acceptance of high prices is generally weak, and the overall inventory reduction speed has slowed down significantly. The short - term uncertainty is extremely strong [8]. Industrial Silicon - Xinjiang large factories plan to reduce production by 50% at the end of the month, affecting the monthly output by more than 60,000 tons. In February, the demand for downstream polysilicon and organic silicon continues to decline, but the decline range is limited month - on - month. The industrial silicon is expected to shift from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction. Pay attention to the breakthrough at 9000 yuan/degree on the disk and whether the production reduction expectation of large factories is repeated [9]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon disk maintains fluctuations. The cancellation of export tax rebates is beneficial to short - term demand, and leading polysilicon enterprises plan to reduce production. The January production plan has been revised down to 103,000 tons. The N - type re - feed material price is firm, with a slight increase to 54,850 yuan/ton. The upward movement of the disk is still under pressure, and it should be participated in cautiously [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views of the Report - The coking coal market currently shows characteristics of "ongoing supply disruptions and rigid demand support." The key factors to watch are the actual impact of the over - production inspection by the Energy Bureau on the output in major production areas, changes in imported coal prices, and the transmission effect of coking enterprises' profit repair on the raw material replenishment rhythm. The coke market's fundamentals remain relatively strong, with rigid demand support and transportation disruptions jointly driving up market bullish expectations. Key factors to monitor include the impact of steel mill profit changes on the replenishment rhythm, the continuous impact of extreme weather on transportation, and the transmission effect of futures price fluctuations on traders' behavior. Due to significant disturbances in market news, the volatility risk of coking coal and coke has increased, and it is advisable to maintain a neutral and wait - and - see stance [12][13] Summary by Directory Coal and Coke Investment Strategy - **Coking Coal**: On the supply side, the over - production inspection by the Energy Bureau is ongoing, some previously over - producing coal mines have reduced production due to policy constraints, and the production recovery rhythm of some mines is slow. In addition, environmental protection control in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia has tightened, making it difficult for open - pit mines to resume production, resulting in a tight supply of resources such as fat coal. On the import side, the auction transaction has improved. In terms of demand, the coking price increase rhythm was postponed due to the weakening of the futures market. Some coking enterprises' losses have expanded due to cost pressure, and their enthusiasm for raw material replenishment is limited. However, steel mill blast furnaces still maintain a certain production intensity, and coking enterprises have many pre - sold orders. Overall, the coking coal price remains stable, and the market trading atmosphere is cautious [12] - **Coke**: On the supply side, after the fourth round of price increases, the profits of some enterprises have improved, and their production enthusiasm has increased. However, some coking enterprises' production is still restricted by previous losses, environmental protection, and maintenance, and the overall supply increase is limited. On the demand side, steel mill blast furnace production remains high, and the rigid demand for coke is strong. Although the fifth - round price increase process was initially slowed down by the futures market, it picked up later, and the supply - demand tight situation remains unchanged [12] - **Operation Strategy**: Due to significant disturbances in market news, the volatility risk of coking coal and coke has increased, and it is advisable to maintain a neutral and wait - and - see stance [13] Coking Coal Data Tracking - **July Price Operation Logic Review**: In early July, the coking coal market was in a tight balance under the game between supply and demand, and the cost support of coking coal gradually emerged. In mid - July, cost pressure drove the price increase of coke, and the coking coal market differentiation intensified. In late July, there were frequent news disturbances in the coking coal market, and the strong cost supported the coke price [19] - **Price Performance**: Domestic coking coal prices in major production areas have stabilized. The port pick - up prices of Australian, Russian, and Mongolian coking coal have decreased. The coking coal futures closing price has shown a volatile trend [21] - **Price Difference**: The spot price difference between Shanxi coking coal and Mongolian coking coal from Ganqimaodu has widened significantly. The futures price difference and the basis have also shown a widening trend [24] - **Production**: The production recovery rhythm of coal mines is slow. The daily average output of 110 coal washing plants has decreased slightly, and the monthly total supply of coking coal has increased [28][29] - **Profit**: The cost of coking coal has increased significantly, but coking enterprises still face losses. The average profit per ton of independent coking enterprises is - 45 yuan/ton [33] - **Inventory**: The overall coking coal inventory has stabilized, and the inventory pressure of upstream coal mines has been significantly reduced [35] Coke Data Tracking - **Price Increase**: The spot prices of coke in various regions have increased, and the futures closing price has shown a volatile trend [40][42] - **Price Difference and Basis**: The price difference between export coke and domestic coke has increased, and the basis of coke has converged [44][46] - **Downstream Demand**: The daily average iron - water output of 247 steel mills has fluctuated slightly, and the profit of steel mills has increased [50][53] - **Inventory**: The overall coke inventory has continued to decline, with the inventory of coking plants and steel mills decreasing and the port inventory increasing [55][56]