Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The成材is expected to move in a sideways consolidation pattern, and its price is likely to continue to decline in the short term due to the weak supply - demand situation and pessimistic market sentiment [4]. - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, with attention paid to macro - sentiment and mine - end news [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 成材 - Yungui region's short - process construction steel producers will have a shutdown period from mid - January, and the resumption time is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel production [3]. - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui Province, one has stopped production on January 5th, and most of the rest will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [4]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4]. - The price of成材continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the weak supply - demand pattern, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the winter storage is sluggish this year, providing little support for prices [4]. Aluminum - The alumina market has an oversupply situation, with a slowdown in the decline of spot prices but an unconfirmed bottom. Some high - cost enterprises in the Jin and Yu regions have cut production, with a weekly output decrease of 17,000 tons [4]. - The raw material inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants and the total social inventory are high, and continuous inventory accumulation intensifies the supply - demand contradiction [4]. - Last week, the overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.4 percentage points to 62%. The SMM expects the operating rate to show a differentiated trend in the short term [4]. - On November 20, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 621,000 tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons from Monday and the same as last Thursday [4]. - There are mixed macro - sentiments. The market still expects a tightening of overseas supply due to potential production cuts in Iceland and Mozambique. However, with the arrival of the domestic off - season, the downstream is weak, and the inventory trend is volatile [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Views of the Report - The finished products are expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center shifting downward and showing a weak trend [2][4]. - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to undergo short - term high - level adjustments, considering the increasing inventory pressure and the complex macro - situation [2][5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel production [3]. - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui Province: one has stopped production on January 5th, most will stop around mid - January, and a few after January 20th, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [4]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4]. - The price of finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center has been moving down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little support for prices [4]. Aluminum Ingots - Macroscopically, the number of initial jobless claims in the US in mid - October reached a two - month high. The market is waiting for the Fed's October 28 - 29 meeting minutes and the US Department of Labor's September employment report [3]. - In October 2025, China imported 13.77 million tons of bauxite, a 13.29% decrease from the previous period but a 12.5% increase year - on - year [4]. - The alumina market has a continuous oversupply situation. Although the decline of spot prices has slowed down, it has not stopped. Industry profits are shrinking, forcing some high - cost enterprises in Shanxi and Henan to reduce production, with a weekly output decrease of 17,000 tons. However, the alumina inventory at electrolytic aluminum plants and in the social sector is still accumulating, reaching 4.793 million tons [4]. - Last week, the SMM weekly aluminum - water ratio was 77.25%, a 0.5 - percentage - point decrease from the previous period. Some sectors are transitioning from the peak to the off - season, and the high aluminum price has pressured downstream processing fees, leading some processing enterprises to cut production and some aluminum - water suppliers to increase ingot casting [4]. - Last week, the overall operating rate of domestic leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises increased by 0.4 percentage points to 62%. The SMM predicts that the operating rate of the aluminum downstream processing industry will show a differentiated trend in the short term, with power grid orders supporting a slight increase in aluminum cables, while aluminum plates, strips, and foils are likely to decline due to environmental protection and the off - season [4]. - On November 17, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 646,000 tons, an increase of 25,000 tons from last Thursday and 19,000 tons from last Monday [4]. - The market still anticipates a tightening of overseas aluminum supply due to the reported production cuts in Iceland and Mozambique. However, with the arrival of the domestic off - season and weakening downstream demand, the inventory pressure is increasing, and the price is expected to have short - term回调 space [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The finished products are expected to run in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center moving downward and showing a weak trend [1][2] - The aluminum price is expected to run strongly in the short - term, with the macro support being strong and the pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic continuing, but the downstream is weakening and the pressure of inventory accumulation is increasing in the short - term [1][3] Summary by Relevant Content Finished Products - The short - process construction steel enterprises in the Yunnan - Guizhou region will stop production and conduct maintenance from mid - to late January during the Spring Festival, and are expected to resume production between the 11th and 16th day of the first lunar month, with an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown period [1] - In Anhui Province, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most of the remaining steel mills will stop production and have holidays around mid - January, with an estimated daily impact on output of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown period [2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 40.3% and a year - on - year increase of 43.2% [2] - The finished products continued to fluctuate downward yesterday, reaching a new low in the recent period. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, resulting in a continuous downward shift of the price center. The winter storage this year is sluggish, providing little support for prices [2] - The later focus includes macro - policies and downstream demand [2] Aluminum - Domestically, the output of bauxite has decreased. Although the mine enterprises in Shanxi and Henan that were shut down due to environmental protection policies and the rainy season previously are now eligible for resumption, they still need government approval. Some compliant mines are expected to resume production on a small scale before the end of the year. With sufficient imported supplies, some mining enterprises have increased the proportion of imported high - temperature ore to maintain output, and the price of domestic bauxite is expected to remain stable in the short term [2] - Last week, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises was 61.6%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous week. The operating rate of aluminum cables decreased by 2 percentage points, and the operating rate of the aluminum profile industry dropped to 52.6%. The operating rates of aluminum strip and aluminum foil leading enterprises also decreased slightly. The overall operating rate is expected to continue to shrink [2] - On November 13, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 621,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from Monday and 1,000 tons from last Thursday [2] - Overseas, affected by high import tariffs and global supply shortages, the premium of the US spot market aluminum price has reached a record high [2] - The aluminum price is expected to run strongly in the short term, with strong macro - support and a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic continuing. However, with the arrival of the off - season, the downstream is weakening and the pressure of inventory accumulation is increasing. Later, attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend and the high - level pressure [3] - The later focus includes changes in macro - expectations, the development of geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [3]

Market Overview - The market is overshadowed by trade tensions and concerns over a potential U.S. government shutdown, leading to mixed performance in U.S. stock futures and declines in European and Asian markets [1][2] - The S&P 500 futures rose nearly 0.1%, while the Dow futures increased by 0.04%, and the Nasdaq 100 futures saw a slight decline of 0.01% [2][7] Gold Market - Gold prices experienced a significant drop, with spot gold falling to below $4070 per ounce, marking a substantial decline of 6.3%, the largest intraday drop in over a decade [1][3][7] - The decline in gold prices is attributed to technical selling, as the market had been in an overbought condition since early September, despite a nearly 60% increase in gold prices year-to-date [3][4] Corporate Earnings - Investor sentiment is being influenced by improved corporate earnings reports, although uncertainties regarding trade prospects and the government shutdown remain [2] - Tesla is set to report its earnings, which will be closely watched as it marks the beginning of earnings reports from major tech companies [2] European Market - European stock indices opened lower, with the Euro Stoxx 50 index down by 0.27%, while the UK FTSE 100 index rose by 0.44% [7] - The market is reacting to mixed signals from corporate earnings and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [4][7] Cryptocurrency Market - Cryptocurrencies are experiencing declines, with Bitcoin down nearly 0.4% and Ethereum down approximately 0.9% [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the reports. Group 2: Core Views - The view on finished products is that they will operate in a volatile and consolidating manner [2]. - The view on aluminum ingots is that the price is expected to run at a high level in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment and mine - end news [3]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel producers will stop production and conduct maintenance from mid - January, with an expected impact on the total building steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown, and the resumption time is expected to be from the 11th to the 16th day of the first lunar month [1]. - In Anhui Province, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5th, most of the rest will stop production around mid - January, and the daily impact on output during the shutdown is about 16,200 tons [2]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2]. - Finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, hitting a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, and the price center continues to move down. Winter storage is sluggish this year, providing little support for prices [2]. Aluminum Ingots - In September, the import volume of bauxite was 15.88 million tons, a 13.2% decrease from the previous period and a 37.5% increase year - on - year. The delivery volume from Guinea decreased by 14.9% to 10.49 million tons in September due to the impact of the rainy season on mining and shipping in July and August [2]. - Last week, the average operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises was 62.5%, a 1.4 - percentage - point decrease compared with the same period last year. The operating rate of aluminum plate and strip leading enterprises was stable at 68%, but due to the off - season expectation and Trump's tariff, the procurement was cautious, and the operating rate is expected to decline gradually. The operating rate of the aluminum cable industry was 64%, and it may continue to be weak and stable in the short term. The operating rate of the aluminum profile industry decreased slightly to 53.5%, and it is expected to be weak and stable in the short term [2]. - On October 20, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 625,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from last Thursday and 25,000 tons from last Monday [2]. Market Outlook - The finished products are expected to operate in a volatile and consolidating manner, and attention should be paid to macro policies and downstream demand [2]. - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to run at a high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment, geopolitical crisis development, mine - end resumption, and consumption release [3].

Core Insights - Gold prices have recently surged, surpassing the historical threshold of $4000 per ounce, with predictions suggesting it could reach $10,000 per ounce by mid-2028 to early 2029 if the momentum continues [1] Group 1: Historical Context - In 1979, gold experienced a dramatic increase of 130% for the year, with prices soaring from $400 to $850 in just three months due to high inflation, economic stagnation, and geopolitical crises [3] - The inflation rate reached 13.3% in the U.S., while the unemployment rate peaked at 10.8%, contributing to the surge in gold prices as a safe-haven asset [3] Group 2: Current Market Dynamics - The current rise in gold prices mirrors the conditions of 1979, with the Federal Reserve having cut interest rates and expectations for further reductions, leading to a weaker dollar and stronger gold prices [6] - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves, with China adding 40,000 ounces in September alone, indicating a shift away from U.S. debt [6] Group 3: Investment Considerations - Investors are advised to consider various channels for gold investment, such as bank gold bars for high purity and low fees, gold ETFs for liquidity, and paper gold for short-term trading [8] - A recommended allocation for gold in a household's total assets is between 5% to 10%, serving as a stabilizing asset rather than a full investment [8]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The price of finished products is expected to move in a sideways consolidation, while the price of aluminum ingots is expected to be strong in the short - term and fluctuate, with attention paid to macro - sentiment and mine - end news [2][4][5] 3) Summary by Related Contents Finished Products - The production of short - process construction steel enterprises in the Yunnan - Guizhou region during the Spring Festival shutdown is expected to affect a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel output, and 6 short - process steel mills in Anhui Province will also have varying degrees of shutdown, with a daily impact of about 16,200 tons of output [3][4] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4] - The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low in the recent period. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, and the price center of gravity continues to move down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, and the price support is not strong [4] - The finished products are expected to move in a sideways consolidation, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [4] Aluminum Ingots - During the holiday, non - ferrous metals in the external market generally rose, and LME aluminum was strong. The US government shutdown has entered the eighth day, and Fed officials believe that the risks in the US job market have increased enough to support interest rate cuts, but many policymakers are still vigilant about high inflation [3] - In September, the domestic electrolytic aluminum output increased by 1.14% year - on - year and decreased by 3.18% month - on - month. The aluminum - water ratio of domestic electrolytic aluminum plants rebounded slightly. The comprehensive PMI index of aluminum processing increased by 2.4 percentage points to 55.7%. Different sub - sectors showed structural differentiation [4] - On October 9, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the domestic mainstream consumption areas was 649,000 tons, an increase of 57,000 tons compared with September 29 and an increase of 32,000 tons compared with September 25. The destocking in September was less than expected, and the premium of electrolytic aluminum is expected to face certain pressure in the early post - holiday period. In October, the aluminum - water ratio of some northern enterprises is expected to increase, and the ingot casting volume is expected to remain low, which will support the aluminum price [4] - With the continuous expectation of overseas interest rate cuts, the short - term macro - favorable atmosphere and the stable fundamentals, the price is expected to remain high and fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend. The price of aluminum ingots is expected to be strong in the short - term and fluctuate, and attention should be paid to macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine - end resumption, and consumption release [4][5]

报道称，内塔尼亚胡推迟访问阿根廷也有其他因素。阿根廷人权律师8月在联邦法院提起刑事诉讼，要 求一旦内塔尼亚胡入境就将其逮捕，理由是其涉嫌对3月在拉法发生的"医护人员遇害事件"负有责任。 该诉状由律师扬松和巴勒斯坦人权中心主任苏拉尼提交，指控内塔尼亚胡犯有战争罪和危害人类罪。 （白云怡） 另据阿根廷媒体"布宜诺斯艾利斯经济新闻"报道，在联合国大会期间，米莱已和内塔尼亚胡在纽约举行 了约45分钟的会晤，讨论加沙的人质问题和中东地区的地缘政治危机。巴勒斯坦伊斯兰抵抗运动（哈马 斯）扣押的人员中仍有阿根廷人，米莱也是为数不多的支持内塔尼亚胡在加沙实施军事行动的外国领导 人之一。据阿根廷总统发言人介绍，在会晤中，双方重申了继续深化两国合作关系的共同意愿。 【环球时报综合报道】据以色列"Ynet"新闻网28日报道，以色列总理内塔尼亚胡原计划在美国之行结束 后继续前往阿根廷，但阿根廷总统米莱顾及该国即将举行议会选举和担心引发负面政治影响，要求其推 迟此次访问。 据报道，尽管米莱是内塔尼亚胡的"坚定支持者"，但他担心此时接待内塔尼亚胡可能对其自身政治地位 造成不利影响。报道援引阿根廷官员的话称，上述决定并非针对以色列，而是该 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of strengthening cooperation between China and Europe, especially in light of the evolving global landscape and the upcoming 50th anniversary of their diplomatic relations in 2025 [1][2] - The 25th China-EU leaders' meeting is significant as it aims to summarize the past 50 years and set a direction for future relations, despite existing disputes [2] - The overall trajectory of China-EU relations has been characterized by mutual respect, cooperation, and win-win outcomes, which is crucial amid the current uncertainties in the international order [2][4] Group 2 - There is a strong willingness for cooperation at the enterprise and public levels, particularly in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative and mutually beneficial economic and technological exchanges [4] - The China-Europe Railway Express has become a vital economic lifeline for the EU since its launch in 2011, maintaining stable operations even during the Ukraine crisis [4] - The Swedish Industrial Union has noted that high-quality and reasonably priced Chinese intermediate products have enhanced Sweden's manufacturing competitiveness and increased worker wages, exemplifying mutual benefits [4] Group 3 - In response to the U.S.-initiated trade war, Europe is pursuing a dual-track approach, seeking agreements with the U.S. while also preparing countermeasures [5] - The Ukraine crisis has increased Europe's reliance on U.S. security guarantees, placing it at a disadvantage in trade negotiations [5] - China and Europe share common interests and a foundation for cooperation in multilateral trade mechanisms, which is essential for maintaining the authority of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and global trade stability [5] Group 4 - Climate change and green cooperation present significant opportunities for collaboration, as both sides recognize the importance of climate mitigation and sustainable development [5][7] - The China-EU joint statement on climate change serves as an effective example of maintaining multilateralism, despite potential differences [7] - The current European "de-risking" strategy towards China reflects strategic anxieties regarding technological power dynamics, which could hinder normal exchanges [8] Group 5 - There is potential for deepening cooperation on global issues such as the Iran nuclear problem, where China and Europe share common concerns and perspectives [9] - The concept of a "community with a shared future for mankind" proposed by China emphasizes the need for cooperation on common goals while respecting differences among nations [9] - The harmonious collaboration among countries, likened to different musical notes creating a symphony, is essential for effectively addressing global risks and challenges [9]

Group 1: Gold Market Overview - International gold prices have maintained a high level of fluctuation after reaching a historical high, supported at $3200 per ounce, but require more positive factors for a new upward trend [1] - The marginal effects of previous positive factors such as central bank gold purchases and increased investment demand are diminishing, while the ongoing de-dollarization process and geopolitical crises provide some support against significant declines [1] - Future gold price increases largely depend on potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with caution advised regarding the impact of U.S. Treasury issuance on dollar liquidity [1][6] Group 2: U.S. Economic Conditions - The risk of stagflation in the U.S. is increasing, with second-quarter economic growth seen as a correction of the first quarter's distortions rather than a strengthening of growth momentum [2] - Private domestic sales growth slowed to 1.2% in the second quarter, the slowest since Q4 2022, indicating weak domestic demand [2] - Employment data shows a significant drop in non-farm payrolls, with July's figures at 73,000, the lowest in nine months, raising concerns about the labor market [2] Group 3: Inflation and Consumer Prices - Tariff policies have contributed to inflation concerns, with July's Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a 0.2% month-on-month increase and a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, slightly below expectations [3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [3] - Historical evidence suggests that stagflation environments are favorable for gold, as seen in the 1970s when gold prices surged from $43 per ounce in 1970 to $666 per ounce in 1980 [3] Group 4: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Expectations - Following the release of July employment data, some Federal Reserve policymakers are leaning towards a dovish stance, with predictions of potential interest rate cuts [4] - Market expectations indicate a 94.1% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September, with significant probabilities for further cuts in October [4] - Increased demand for gold investments has been observed, with holdings in the SPDR Gold ETF rising to 964.2 tons, surpassing previous records [4] Group 5: Global Gold Demand - Global gold demand increased by 3% year-on-year in Q2, reaching 1248.8 tons, with investment demand remaining stable despite a decline in physical demand due to high prices [5] - Investment demand for gold in Q2 reached 477.2 tons, a 78% year-on-year increase, with significant growth in gold bars and coins [5] - The inflow of funds into gold ETFs increased by $3.2 billion in July, indicating strong investment interest [5] Group 6: Dollar Liquidity Risks - The U.S. Treasury has issued approximately $328 billion in short-term debt since raising the debt ceiling, which could strain liquidity in the financial system [6] - Predictions suggest that the cash balance in the Treasury General Account (TGA) will rise significantly, potentially impacting bank reserves and increasing the risk of liquidity issues [6] - The decline in the usage of the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase agreements (RRP) may lead to pressures in the financing market as Treasury cash balances grow [6]