新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-03-03 中东危机引发海外供应担忧 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价23620元/吨，较上一交易日变化210元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-170元/ 吨，较上一交易日变化0元/吨；中原A00铝价23500元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化0元/吨至-290元/吨； 佛山A00铝价录23620元/吨，较上一交易日变化200元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-10元/吨至-170元/ 吨。 铝期货方面：2026-03-02日沪铝主力合约开于23815元/吨，收于24465元/吨，较上一交易日变化760元/吨，最 高价达24495元/吨，最低价达到23710元/吨。全天交易日成交483091手，全天交易日持仓277833手。 库存方面，截止2026-03-02，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存122.9万吨，较上一期变化7.2万吨，仓单库存 294788吨，较上一交易日变化5490吨，LME铝库存463550吨，较上一交易日变化-2000吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2026-03-02SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2630元/吨，山东价格录得2590元/吨，河南价格录得 265 ...

2026 年 3 月 3 日 星期二 每日大市点评 昨日港股下跌。恒生指数及国企指数分别收报 26,059.85 点及 8,701.91 点，下跌 2.1%及 1.8%。港股成交合共 3,577 港 元，较上周五的 2,884 亿港元，下跌 24.0%，或反映投资者轮动交易情况。分类指数方面，能源、原材料、公用事业业指 数分别上升 4.0%、3.1%、0.1%；医疗保健、金融、非必需性消费则分别下跌 3.4%、3.3%、3.1%。蓝筹个股方面，信义玻 璃(868 HK)及中国宏桥(1378 HK)领涨，分别上升 12.4%及 7.2%；京东健康(6618 HK)及汇丰控股(5 HK)领跌，皆分别下跌 5.2%。 近日美国及以色列攻击伊朗，这无疑加深地缘政治危机，以及影响石油及天然气等传统能源供应。WTI 原油价格上涨至 70 美元近月高水平，虽然如此，仍远低于 2022 年俄乌军事冲突爆发时候的 100 至 115 美元水平。黄金价格则上升至今年初 的 5,300 美元高水平。在此次战争情况下，相关港股板块表现出传统投资逻辑。"三桶油"上升 2.6%-5.6%，金矿股例如 招金矿业(1818 HK)上升 6. ...

作者 | 哥吉拉 数据支持 | 勾股 大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 周一，心里悬着的石头终于落下。上证收盘微涨0.47%，市场成交额达到了三万亿。 更离谱的在港股！一天三只概念股市值翻倍。 中港石油、百勤油服、山东墨龙盘中最高涨幅来到了145%，107%、116%。 战局经过两天的发酵，后续变化会对国内市场造成怎样的影响？ 油路命脉中断 01 周末大家一边吃瓜，一边期待着周一开盘股市的走向，券商机构忙得不可开交。 中东战局撬动了期货和个别股票板块，中国石油A股一共就9次涨停，而收盘时"三桶油"竟然都涨停了！这在历史上还是第一次。 讨论方向无非是哪些板块会涨，甚至只要是自己看好的板块，都能找到利好的理由。 但今天从盘面来看， 油气、海运、军工、贵金属板块掀起涨停潮 ，通信设备、 CPO 、电力板块表现活跃；而文化传媒、软件、互联网等 AI 应用方向集体走低。 | | | 同花顺板块表现 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 油气开采及服务 | 贵金属 | 石油加工贸易 | 军工电子 | 港口航运 | | 12.23% | 10.69% | 5.33% | ...

晨报 铝锭 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:上周铝价区间偏强运行。中东地缘黑天鹅事件发生，霍尔木兹海 峡的航运已陷入停滞状态，承担中东原铝及相关原料主要海运任务，一旦 受阻将引发区域性供应危机并可能传导至全球。 以伊冲突 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交（签约）面积总计 223.4 万平方米，环比下降 40.3%，同比增长 43.2%。 成材昨日继续震荡下行，价格再创近期新低。在供需双弱的格局下， 市场情绪同样偏悲观，导致价格重心持续下移。无论从宏观上还是产业 ...

晨报 铝锭 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2026 年 2 月 26 日 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日铝价偏强震荡。宏观上交易员削减对美联储的降息押注，美 联储 3 月维持利率不变的概率高达 98%。 以伊冲突 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交（签约）面积总计 223.4 万平方米，环比下 ...

其次，美国冬季天气异常导致美国原油产出短期受到影响。1月，覆盖美国东部三分之二地区的冬季风暴对能源系统造成严重冲击，严寒天气扰乱了墨西哥 湾沿岸多家炼油厂的运营，并影响了部分原油产量。数据显示，今年以来，美国原油产量出现回落，2月13日当周降至1373.5万桶/日，而去年12月5日当周 一度创下1385.3万桶/日的历史最高纪录。美国能源服务公司贝克休斯公布的数据显示，今年以来，美国原油钻井数量下降，2月20日当周降至409口，较去 年同期减少16.2%。 图为VLCC一年期日租金（单位：美元） 1月以来，原油价格震荡反弹，国内春节假期期间加速上涨，WTI原油期货4月合约一度上涨至67美元/桶一线，布伦特原油期货5月合约最高上涨至72美元/桶 附近。 原油价格反弹的主要原因是地缘政治危机引发的原油运输担忧、美国冬季恶劣天气影响炼厂开工和油轮运费上涨带来的成本传导。然而，2026年全球原油市 场处于供应过剩格局决定了油价反弹的高度有限。产油国对全球原油市场份额的争夺意味着供应很难下降，地缘政治危机引发的涨势难以持续。 三大因素推动原油反弹 首先，地缘政治危机引发供应担忧。年初至今，原油价格持续反弹的主要驱动力为 ...

晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：淡季库存积累 价格区间震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日沪铝区间震荡。宏观上美联储洛根表示，美联储的政策立场 恰到好处；美联储的政策立场可能接近中性水平，既不刺激也不抑制经济 活动。 以伊冲突 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The price of finished products is expected to move downward with a weak trend and fluctuate and consolidate. The price of aluminum ingots is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment [1][2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, and resume production around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting 741,000 tons of construction steel output. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - Finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center continues to move down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [2] Aluminum Ingots - Last week, Shanghai aluminum pulled back from its high. The US threat to impose tariffs on countries involved in Iranian trade will disrupt global trade flows and suppress risk appetite. The central bank carried out reverse repurchases to supplement liquidity, alleviating the panic in the domestic commodity market [2] - Domestically, Shanxi's bauxite production has resumed actively, with sufficient supply and falling prices. For imported ore, the intended transaction price has decreased, and the market is quiet. Some alumina plants are cautious in purchasing [2] - In January, China's electrolytic aluminum output increased by 2.7% year - on - year and 0.5% month - on - month. Last week, the comprehensive aluminum processing operating rate was 57.9%, a 1.5 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week, with significant differentiation among sectors [2] - The operating rate of leading aluminum plate and strip enterprises rose to 66.0%, but will decline after the completion of pre - holiday stocking. The operating rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises rose to 71.4% and will maintain a high level. The operating rate of aluminum cables dropped to 58% and will further decline. The operating rate of aluminum profiles dropped to 36.0%, but the demand for photovoltaic profiles is strong [2] - As of February 9, the social inventory of aluminum ingots reached 857,000 tons, a 40,000 - ton increase from last Monday. As the price drops, attention should be paid to downstream feedback, but it is expected that there will be no obvious improvement before the Spring Festival [2] Market as a Whole - Short - term market sentiment has eased, the linkage between precious metals and non - ferrous metals is still strong, and market trading sentiment is cautious. Prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [3]

【环球网报道 记者 张倩】据英国《卫报》、美国广播公司（ABC）报道，美国自由式滑雪老将亨特·赫斯近日在2026年米兰-科尔蒂纳冬奥会开幕式前的 一场新闻发布会上表示，当下代表美国参加冬奥会让自己"情绪复杂"，并坦言"有些艰难"。美国总统特朗普8日对此作出回应，指责赫斯是"真正的失败 者"，并对其在发布会上的言论表示不满。 《卫报》称，赫斯6日在新闻发布会上被问及，在当前美国国内形势背景下——包括美国移民与海关执法局（ICE）在明尼苏达州的移民执法行动及多起 地缘政治危机——代表美国参加奥运会有何感受。 赫斯表示，"显然现在发生了很多我并不完全认同的事，我想很多人也是如此。对我来说，我更多的是代表家乡的朋友和家人，代表那些在我之前代表这 个国家的人，以及我所认同的美国积极的一面。""我身披国旗，并不意味着我代表美国正在发生的一切"。 报道称，特朗普对赫斯这番言论明确表达不满，将其解读为赫斯"声称自己不是代表他的国家参加本届冬奥会"。特朗普在其社交媒体上发文称，"如果是 这样，他就不该参加国家队选拔，很遗憾他进了队。很难为这样的人加油"。 这一事件在社交媒体上引发网友争议。有美国网友表示："对于此刻代表美国参赛 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The finished products are expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center shifting downward and showing weak performance. The aluminum ingot price is expected to experience a short - term weak callback, and the short - term market fluctuates sharply [1][2][3] Summary by Related Content Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel producers will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, and resume production around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month. The total output of construction steel is expected to be affected by 741,000 tons during this period. Six short - process steel mills in Anhui, one stopped on January 5th, most will stop in mid - January, and a few after January 20th. The daily output is expected to be affected by 16,200 tons [1] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - The finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, the price center continues to shift downward. The winter storage is sluggish this year, providing weak support for prices [2] Aluminum Ingots - The sharp decline of Shanghai Aluminum was due to the selling of precious metals, triggering risk - aversion sentiment. The market's expectation of loose liquidity was disappointed, and funds fled from risk assets such as commodities. The previous large increase in the non - ferrous metal sector led to profit - taking, intensifying the downward pressure on prices [1] - In January 2026, the domestic electrolytic aluminum output increased by 2.7% year - on - year and 0.5% month - on - month. In February, it is expected to decrease month - on - month due to fewer natural days. Some new electrolytic aluminum projects are expected to be put into production stably [2] - As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream demand for raw materials weakens, and the high aluminum price suppresses demand. The enterprise's willingness to cast ingots increases significantly, and the proportion of molten aluminum is expected to drop sharply [2] - Last week, the comprehensive operating rate of aluminum processing was 59.4%, a 1.5 - percentage - point decline from the previous week, showing characteristics of "accelerated seasonal decline and deepened high - price suppression effect". Most sub - sectors' operating rates decreased, and the industry is quickly entering the Spring Festival off - season [2] - As of January 29, the national social inventory of aluminum ingots has reached 782,000 tons, an increase of 330,000 tons compared with the same period in 2025 [2] Later Concerns - For finished products, the concerns are macro - policies and downstream demand [2] - For aluminum ingots, the concerns are changes in macro - expectations, the development of geopolitical crises, the resumption of production at the mine end, and the release of consumption [3]