1月9日 资讯分享 委内瑞拉局势——①美国：委石油产量在18个月内可能增长50%。②美媒：川普筹划控制委国石油公 司，目标是将油价压低至50美元/桶。③委内瑞拉重申致力于深化与中国的经济和贸易协定。 美国至1月3日当周初请失业金人数录得20.8万人，低于预期的21万人，前值由19.9万人修正为20万人。 随着全球多个主要产油国陷入地缘政治危机，引发供应中断担忧，国际原油反弹。WTI原油美盘加速拉 升，最终收涨3.61%，报58.33美元/桶，创两周高位；布伦特原油最终收涨3.79%，报62.49美元/桶。 美联储——①米兰：预计在2026年将进行约150个基点的降息。②川普称已决定下一任美联储主席人 选。③贝森特敦促美联储进一步降息，并称预计将在本月宣布美联储主席人选。 周四，现货黄金先跌后涨，收复了早些时候的失地，最终收涨0.47%，报4477.42美元/盎司；由于投资 者正准备迎接未来几天内价值数十亿美元的期货合约抛售潮，现货白银连续第二个交易日走低，一度下 破74美元关口，最终收跌3.76%，报78.19美元/盎司。 ...

男生普通话版 下载mp3 女声普通话版 下载mp3 粤语版 下载mp3 西南方言版 下载mp3 东北话版 下载mp3 上海话版 下载mp3 今日优选 美联储理事最新发声：预计今年降息150个基点！ 中国石化与中国航油实施重组 市场盘点 周四，美元指数连涨三日，盘中逼近99关口，最终收涨0.125%，报98.87；美债收益率普涨，基准的10年期美债收益率最终收报4.173%，对美联储政策利率 敏感的2年期美债收益率收报3.498%。 现货黄金先跌后涨，收复了早些时候的失地，最终收涨0.47%，报4477.42美元/盎司；由于投资者正准备迎接未来几天内价值数十亿美元的期货合约抛售 潮，现货白银连续第二个交易日走低，一度下破74美元关口，最终收跌3.76%，报78.19美元/盎司。 随着全球多个主要产油国陷入地缘政治危机，引发供应中断担忧，国际原油反弹。WTI原油美盘加速拉升，最终收涨3.61%，报58.33美元/桶，创两周高 位；布伦特原油最终收涨3.79%，报62.49美元/桶。 CME上调贵金属期货的跨期价差及相关价差合约履约保证金 美媒称特朗普希望将油价降至每桶50美元 美国方面讨论支付1万~10万美元来收 ...

关注 「电动车公社」 和我们一起重新思考汽车 两年前那些"自愿"离开俄罗斯的国际车企，现在可能 想 回都回不去 了。 事情是这样的，两年前因为响应西方制裁措施，现代汽车跟随诸多友商的脚步，" 主动 " 退出了俄罗斯市场。 因为走得实在匆忙，现代汽车只要了7000卢布（约550块人民币）就把位于圣彼得堡的工厂贱卖给了俄罗斯本地企业， 回购权两年。 在很多人看来，这都是笔稳赚不赔的买卖。 既然开工肯定没希望了，工厂维护、复工的成本要以亿计算。还不如做个顺水人情，借俄罗斯企业用一阵。等停战了再买回来，能省一大笔钱。 这就有点像是 把自己家孩子寄养给了隔壁老王， 穿衣吃饭都是老王花钱，两年后再把孩子接回来，还是父慈子孝，岂不妙哉 。 可谁承想，如今两年之期已到，俄乌那边的局势还没恢复稳定，什么时候能稳定也是遥遥无期。 回，就要承担荒废工厂的无底洞投入；不回，这可是当年投资5400亿韩元（约26亿元人民币）、耗时两年才建成的工厂！难道就要这么拱手让人了？ 然而，急得像热锅上的蚂蚁的， 可不止现代汽车一家。 丰田、大众这两家或许是看得明白， 在割肉离场时头也不回，出售资产时连回购权都没要，认亏走人。 而其他在俄罗斯建过厂 ...

热点新知 在现行成品油价格形成机制下，国内油价调整结果严格接轨国际油价，全年油价大跌915元/吨，加油站柴油汽油价格下降至四年低点。 布伦特原油价格跌破60美元后展开反弹，国际油价连涨两周，有料财经分析今年1月6日国内油价或将上调！ 作者：小天 辛苦读者点赞关注有料财经，及时把握最新油价调整消息和获得专业油价分析内容，摒弃对于国内油价调整规则和油价涨与跌的偏见与误解，大家一起加 油。 美国抓获委内瑞拉马杜罗引发国际金融市场巨震，华尔街国际金融机构分析师预计2026年新年首个原油市场交易日将迎来 本轮国内油价调整周期三地原油均值波动率正向波动，油价上涨幅度1.42%，折合国内油价涨幅50元/吨，刚好满足国内油价上调门槛。 如果元旦假期后国际油价上涨，有料财经提醒车主做好1月6日国内油价小幅上调的心理准备，2026年国内成品油价格调整周期将以油价上涨开局。 由于国内油价涨幅轻微，在今年首轮油价调整后，国内柴油汽油价格维持在油价6元时代。 有料财经油价分析：委内瑞拉马杜罗被抓，美国总统特朗普表示将强势介入委内瑞拉的石油产业， 光大期货研报指出受到南美洲委内瑞拉突发地缘事件影响，元旦假期结束后国内原油市场能化品种开盘 ...

新浪声明：此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同 其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。 1月6日 这场闹剧可能还仅仅只是开始，继特朗普光速拿下委内瑞拉总统夫妇以后，英法进入叙利亚想 要分得一杯羹；主要原因是美国霸权已经快要瓦解，那么这套体系玩不下去那就只能退化，重新玩殖民 体系了；整个世界都在推不退步只有东方大国在进步。全球很快就会进入群魔乱舞时代，特朗普拿下委 内瑞拉以后下一步就是格兰陵岛，而中东也都已经武装完，在开始之前已经对伊朗发动了舆论攻势，所 以整体来讲全球地缘政治危机还在不断恶化，随之避险情绪也会逐渐开始升温，故此黄金的上涨势头可 能无法逆转，所有的回落都只是回踩，并不能造就趋势逆转。行情重新回到了无脑做多的时代。 隔夜国际现货黄金在周一跳空高开高走，从4344附近一路高歌猛进直接冲击站稳4400上方，最终录得高 位4456附近以后开始盘整回踩，说的是回踩可是事实上涨幅达到了惊人的110个点，而回落空间仅仅只 给到了20个点，黄金大概率是要重新进入单边上涨行情了，而这周还能否有回落4400下方的机会做多， 那就要 ...

晨报 铝锭 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 2026 年 1 月 6 日 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日沪铝偏强运行。宏观上市场关注可能影响美联储政策和全球 市场走向的关键一周经济数据，美元持续走弱，地缘政治风险引发避险需 求，叠加国内产能天花板铺垫以及节后首日短期国内消费政策提振，铝继 续走强。 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品 ...

【华宝期货】有色金属周报 华宝期货 2026.1.5 以上内容谨代表个人观点，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与华宝期货有限公司和作者无关，据此入市交易，风险自负！投资有风险，入市需谨慎！ 目录 01 有色周度行情回顾 02 本周有色行情预判 03 品种数据（铝、锌、锡、碳酸锂） 以上内容谨代表个人观点，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与华宝期货有限公司和作者无关，据此入市交易，风险自负！投资有风险，入市需谨慎！ 周度行情回顾 | 品种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2025. 12. 31 2025. 12. 26 | 周变动 | 周涨跌幅 | | | 2025. 12. 31 2025. 12. 26 | 周变动 | 周涨跌幅 | | 铜 | CU2602 | 98240 | 98720 | -480 | -0. 49% | 中国:平均价:铜:上海物贸 | 99280 | 97865 | 1415 | 1. 45% | ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market experienced a "super bull" trend in 2025, with gold, silver, platinum, and palladium reaching historical highs, driven by various macroeconomic factors and increased demand from central banks [1][6][11]. Price Performance - In 2025, COMEX gold and silver contracts saw annual maximum increases of 66% and 187%, respectively, while London spot gold and silver rose by 75% and 192% [1][2]. - Platinum and palladium also experienced significant gains, with NYMEX platinum and palladium contracts rising over 185% and 136%, respectively [1][2]. Market Dynamics - Gold prices surged in three phases throughout 2025, with notable increases in the first quarter and a subsequent high-level consolidation phase before another rise in the latter part of the year [3]. - Silver's price increase was concentrated in the fourth quarter, with COMEX silver rising from under $40/oz to $79.7/oz [4]. Supply and Demand Factors - The global silver market faced a deficit of approximately 5,835 tons in 2025, driven by low mining output and strong demand from sectors like 5G and renewable energy [8][9]. - Platinum and palladium also faced supply shortages, with the global platinum market expected to have a supply gap of 69,200 ounces in 2025 [10]. Influencing Factors - Multiple factors supported the rise in gold prices, including risk premiums, a rate-cutting cycle, and increased central bank purchases [6][7]. - The correlation between gold and silver prices remained high, with gold's price increases often leading to similar movements in silver [8]. Future Outlook - Analysts expect precious metals to maintain strength into 2026, with gold potentially reaching $5,000/oz, supported by ongoing monetary easing and geopolitical factors [11][13]. - The demand for silver and platinum is anticipated to grow due to the energy transition and industrial applications, despite potential short-term corrections [12][13].

1月4日，跨越新年美国打响第一炮，周六突发，美军用了一个小时拿下委内瑞拉总统夫妇，无论里应外 合还是瞎猫碰上死耗子，这件事就这样堂而皇之的发生了。特朗普此举被部分分析视为美国对委内瑞拉 军事行动的一部分，可能旨在推翻马杜罗政权并扶植亲美政府，主要动机包括控制委内瑞拉丰富的石油 资源全球储量第一以维护美元霸权，以及重塑拉美地区影响力；同时，此举可能服务于特朗普的国内政 治需求。而美国撕破了面具，直接绑架了主权国的总统，并没有通报联合国那就已经是摆在明面上了， 不论黑猫白猫能够抓住耗子就是好猫，可是这样也会造成两点不一样的局势，首先这样开始玩那么接下 来是不是只要是大国都可以这样玩，战略意义上来讲美国已经开始不择手段想要迫切打破当前的局势， 可是这样反而会让其他国家更是放开手脚了。第二点即使抓了委内瑞拉的总统，这样会不会引发更大的 反美潮，委内瑞拉国内有着东方大国以及俄罗斯的兵力部署，是否会形成反扑我们可是拭目以待。 回到行情上来，国际现货黄金周五走出了冲高回落，周五早间开盘从4320附近一路高歌猛进直捣4400整 数关口附近，日内亚盘欧盘走势都很顺畅并没有太多的停留，而美盘开盘以后黄金瀑布式跳水，回吐了 日内所 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the gold and silver markets showed significant upward trends. The outlook for the precious metals market in 2026 remains optimistic. The continued fiscal expansion of major countries, the expected further decline of the US dollar, and the existence of stagflation risks in the US may further support the investment demand for gold. The industrial and investment demand for silver may also remain strong [2]. Summary by Directory Part I: Review of Precious Metals Market Gold Market Review - **Historical Gold Market Review**: Gold has experienced three major bull markets in the past 60 years. From 1971 - 1980, the price rose from $35/ounce to $850/ounce, a nearly 24 - fold increase. From 1980 - 2000, it was a bear market. From 2001 - 2011, the price soared from $255/ounce to $1920/ounce, a 650% increase. From 2016 - 2025, it entered a new bull market [6]. - **2025 Gold Market Review**: Affected by factors such as the implementation of the US tariff policy, the Fed's interest - rate cuts, and geopolitical crises, the London spot gold price rose from $2610.85/ounce at the end of 2024 to over $4500/ounce at the end of 2025, a cumulative increase of over 70%. The SHFE gold futures also showed a similar trend [13]. Silver Market Review - **Historical Silver Market Review**: Over the past 60 years, international silver prices have fluctuated significantly. From 1971 - 1980, it soared from $1.5/ounce to $49.45/ounce. From 1980 - 2000, it plummeted. From 2001 - 2011, it rose from $4/ounce to $49/ounce. From 2021 - 2025, it was driven by multiple factors to break through $80/ounce [18]. - **2025 Silver Market Review**: The London spot silver price rose from $28.91/ounce at the end of 2024 to over $80/ounce at the end of 2025, with a maximum annual increase of over 170%. The SHFE silver also showed a similar upward trend [23]. Part II: Analysis of the Impact of Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Factors on Precious Metals Prices Impact of the US Economic Situation on Precious Metals Prices - **Impact of the US Interest - Rate Cut Cycle**: The expectation of the US interest - rate cut cycle is one of the underlying logics supporting the sharp rise in precious metals prices. In 2025, the Fed cut interest rates three times, weakening the yields of traditional assets and increasing the attractiveness of gold [31]. - **Impact of the US Economy**: In 2025, the US economy maintained a certain growth rate, but the "Big and Beautiful" tax and expenditure bill worsened the medium - and long - term fiscal prospects, consolidating the bullish trend of gold [33]. - **Impact of the US Dollar Index Trend**: The US dollar index has a negative correlation with precious metals prices. In 2025, the weakening dollar index supported precious metals prices, but in 2026, its support may weaken [49]. Impact of Central Bank Gold Purchases on Precious Metals Prices - In recent years, global central banks have continuously increased their gold reserves. In 2025, central banks' gold - buying pace accelerated in the third quarter. In 2026, the pace of central bank gold allocation may slow down [51]. Impact of Geopolitical Crises on Precious Metals Prices - Geopolitical conflicts such as the Middle East situation, the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the Palestine - Israel conflict have increased market uncertainty, leading investors to turn to gold for risk - aversion. They also affect the supply and demand pattern of gold [56]. Part III: Analysis of Precious Metals Supply and Demand Gold Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply Analysis**: In the first three quarters of 2025, domestic raw material gold production was 271.782 tons, and imported raw material gold production was 121.149 tons. The global total gold supply in the first three quarters was 3717.4 tons [59]. - **Demand Analysis**: The global total gold demand in the first three quarters of 2025 was 3717.4 tons, showing a slight upward trend. China's gold consumption decreased by 7.95% year - on - year [63]. - **Inventory Analysis**: In 2025, SHFE gold inventory continued to rise, while COMEX gold inventory remained stable after an initial increase and then gradually declined slightly [65]. Silver Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply Analysis**: It is expected that the global silver supply in 2025 will increase by 2% year - on - year to 1030.6 million ounces, mainly due to a 2% increase in mined silver [69]. - **Demand Analysis**: It is expected that the global silver demand in 2025 will decrease by 1% year - on - year to 1148.3 million ounces. Industrial demand will decrease slightly, while investment demand will increase by 7% [75]. - **Inventory Analysis**: SHFE, COMEX, and Shanghai Gold Exchange silver inventories all showed significant fluctuations in 2025 [78]. Part IV: Arbitrage and Position Analysis of the Precious Metals Market Gold Market Arbitrage and Position Analysis - **Domestic Gold Spot - Futures Arbitrage Analysis**: In 2025, the basis of SHFE gold futures active contracts was mostly negative, with occasional positive values presenting arbitrage opportunities [88]. - **Gold Inter - Period Arbitrage Analysis**: The inter - period spread of SHFE gold futures active contracts and continuous contracts was mostly positive, with occasional large declines presenting arbitrage opportunities [91]. - **Gold - Silver Ratio Analysis**: In 2025, the gold - silver ratio fluctuated sharply, and its future direction is difficult to judge after breaking through the previous range [95]. - **Analysis of SHFE Gold Positions and Capital Inflows**: In 2025, domestic institutional net long positions in SHFE gold futures showed fluctuations, and the inflow of funds increased with the rise in gold prices [97]. Silver Market Arbitrage and Position Analysis - **Silver Basis Analysis**: In 2025, the basis of SHFE silver futures active contracts was mostly negative, with large positive spreads appearing at the end of the year [106]. - **Silver Inter - Period Spread Analysis**: The inter - period spread of SHFE silver futures active contracts and continuous contracts was mostly positive, with occasional large fluctuations [108]. - **Analysis of SHFE Silver Positions and Capital Inflows**: In 2025, domestic institutional net long positions in SHFE silver futures showed fluctuations, and the inflow of funds increased significantly with the rise in silver prices [111]. Part V: Analysis and Strategies of Precious Metals Options - The implied volatility of gold and silver options has increased in recent years. The put - call ratio of gold options indicates a bullish market, while that of silver options shows more fluctuations, especially increasing when the silver price rises sharply [121]. - Different options strategies can be considered according to different price and volatility expectations, such as buying at - the - money call options, selling out - of - the - money put options, selling strangles, and buying straddles [122]. Part VI: Seasonal Analysis of Precious Metals - Based on a five - year seasonal analysis, precious metals have a relatively high probability of rising in March, April, and October and a relatively high probability of falling in June [137]. Part VII: Outlook on Factors Affecting Precious Metals Prices in 2026 and Technical Analysis - **Prediction of the Fed's Interest - Rate Cut Rhythm in 2026 and Its Impact on Precious Metals Prices**: It is expected that the Fed will cut interest rates by 75 basis points in 2026, which is beneficial to precious metals prices [146]. - **Orientation of US Government Policies in 2026 and Their Impact on Precious Metals Prices**: The US economy is expected to grow, and the government will maintain a high fiscal deficit rate. The new Fed chairman may be more dovish, which is conducive to the rise of precious metals prices [150]. - **Impact of Gold Supply - Demand Balance on Gold Prices**: In 2025, gold investment demand increased significantly. In 2026, the gold market outlook remains optimistic, and the strategic value of allocating gold is still stable [151]. - **Technical Analysis of Precious Metals Price Trends**: Technically, COMEX gold has strong support at $3500/ounce and $4000/ounce, and COMEX silver may have strong support at $50/ounce and $35/ounce [155]. Part VIII: Outlook on Precious Metals Prices in 2026 and Strategy Recommendations - In 2026, the global macro - game pattern remains unchanged. The continuous expansion of fiscal deficits in major economies, the Fed's interest - rate cuts, and geopolitical uncertainties are expected to support precious metals prices. Buying on dips can be considered as a trading strategy [160].