中外对话丨中欧应加强合作，成就彼此、照亮世界 中新网北京8月21日电 题：中欧应加强合作，成就彼此、照亮世界 作者 陈天浩 冯小妍 2025年是中欧建交50周年。站在关键历史节点上，面对加速演进的世界百年变局和变乱交织的国际形 势，中欧应如何相处，携手共进？在美国发起贸易战的背景下，欧洲如何更好地平衡同中国的关系？第 二十五次中国—欧盟领导人会晤中的高层互动，又有何重要意义？ "中外对话"栏目邀请全球治理和国际组织研究所所长金玲和瑞典"一带一路"研究所副所长侯赛因·阿斯 卡里(Hussein Askary)，对中欧关系发展进行深入剖析。 五十年同行：中欧高层会晤为未来关系定向 在双方建交五十周年的重要节点，第二十五次中欧领导人会晤意义重大。金玲表示，"尽管会晤前，欧 方对中欧关系存在一些争议与分歧，但此次会晤的核心价值在于总结过去五十年的经验，为未来的中欧 关系锚定一个方向。" 瑞典工业工会曾公开表示，中国的高质量且价格合理的中间产品，推动了瑞典制造业竞争力并带动工人 工资上涨，这正是互利共赢的生动例证。在企业、经济界乃至学术界，人们普遍认同与中国的合作对双 方都有利，而这种合作的基础，超越了地缘政治博弈和全 ...

4月下旬，国际黄金价格在创下历史新高后，便维持高位震荡走势，调整幅度较小，在3200美元／盎司 处获得支撑。黄金价格之所以高位震荡，是因为若要开启新一轮上涨，需要更多的利多因素推动。然 而，此前诸如央行购金、投资需求增长以及避险买盘等利多因素，其边际作用已逐渐减弱。 不过，鉴于去美元化进程不断推进、地缘政治危机频繁爆发以及美元汇率持续走低，黄金价格同样缺乏 能使其大幅下跌的利空力量。展望未来，黄金若要开启新一轮上涨行情，很大程度上要依赖美联储降息 这一驱动因素。但在三季度，需特别警惕美债发行对美元流动性造成的冲击，一旦美元市场出现流动性 危机，黄金价格或被波及。 美国滞胀风险增加 "胀"的一面则体现为关税对美国物价产生了传导作用。数据显示，尽管7月就业数据表现疲软，但特朗 普政府的关税政策引发了通胀担忧。美国劳工统计局当地时间8月12日公布的数据显示，7月美国消费者 价格指数（CPI）环比上涨0.2%，与6月0.3%的涨幅相比有所放缓，符合市场预期；同比上涨2.7%，低 于市场预期的2.8%，与6月持平。剔除食品和能源价格的核心CPI环比上涨0.3%，符合预期，但同比涨 幅达3.1%，高于预期的3.0%。 此 ...

Core Insights - International crude oil prices experienced a rebound due to the summer driving season in Europe and the U.S., alongside a weakening dollar, with NYMEX WTI prices rising above $68 per barrel by July 8 [1] - Despite seasonal demand, significant downward pressure on prices is expected in Q3 due to OPEC+'s increasing production plans and the ongoing impact of U.S. tariff policies on global economic growth [1] OPEC+ Production Increase - OPEC+ is significantly increasing production to regain market share, with an agreement reached on July 5 to raise output by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations [2] - A potential meeting on August 3 may approve an additional increase of approximately 550,000 barrels per day for September, bringing total output from key OPEC+ members back to 2.17 million barrels per day [2] - In May, OPEC's production rose to 27.022 million barrels per day, an increase of 184,000 barrels per day from April, with Saudi Arabia and Libya contributing the most to this increase [2] U.S. Production Trends - U.S. crude oil production is projected to grow by 270,000 barrels per day in 2024, averaging 13.2 million barrels per day, a 2.08% increase from 2023 [3] - As of June 27, U.S. production had decreased to 13.433 million barrels per day, down from a record high of 13.631 million barrels per day in December [3] - High-cost shale oil producers are beginning to cut production due to falling prices, with the average breakeven prices in key regions being $62 and $64 per barrel [3] Geopolitical Impact - Recent geopolitical tensions, such as the conflict between Israel and Iran, initially caused spikes in oil prices, but the impact has been short-lived as supply routes have normalized [4] - Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports increased by 450,000 barrels per day in June, reaching the highest level in over a year [4] - Structural changes in the energy market, including diversified supply sources and improved strategic reserves, are reducing the traditional dominance of oil-producing countries [4] Demand Concerns - Trade barriers and tariffs are expected to weaken global economic growth, which may suppress oil demand [5] - Forecasts for global oil demand in 2025 have been adjusted by major agencies, with IEA, EIA, and OPEC predicting demand at 103.7627 million, 103.5280 million, and 105.1349 million barrels per day, respectively [6] - Seasonal gasoline consumption in the U.S. has seen a mild recovery, but overall demand during the summer driving season is expected to be lower than previous years [6] Domestic Market Dynamics - In May, China's crude oil imports showed negative growth year-on-year, with a 3% decline month-on-month [7] - Domestic refining profits have increased, leading to a rise in refinery operating rates, while smaller refineries are struggling with low profits [7] - The global oil market is likely to face oversupply, driven by OPEC+'s production increases and the impact of U.S. energy policies [7]

Group 1: Geopolitical Impact on Oil Prices - The core viewpoint is that any U.S. military intervention in Iran is expected to be short-lived, as President Trump aims to keep gasoline prices below $4 per gallon [1] - WTI crude oil futures have risen approximately 10% over the past week, while Brent crude has increased by 18% since June 10, reaching a near five-month high of $79.04 [3] Group 2: Currency and Market Trends - Hartnett warns that the most painful trade this summer will be going long on the U.S. dollar, as the market is predominantly short on the dollar [5] - European and Asian markets are showing signs of structural bull markets, with European stocks up 20% and Chinese stocks up 15% in dollar terms this year, compared to only a 2% increase in the U.S. [7] Group 3: Investment Allocation Insights - High-net-worth investors are significantly under-allocated in gold, with only 0.4% of their assets in this asset class, despite gold's strong performance [11] - Recent data shows that gold experienced its largest inflow in eight weeks, totaling $2.8 billion, with an annualized inflow reaching a record $80 billion [13] Group 4: U.S. Debt and Fiscal Policy - Military intervention in Iran is likely to reinforce the consensus of a long-term bear market for U.S. Treasuries, as Trump has limited options to reduce government spending [9] - The discussion around interest rate cuts by Powell is linked to the fiscal constraints faced by the Trump administration [10]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Report's Core View - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with its center of gravity shifting downward and showing a weak performance [1][3] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, with low inventory continuing and the price in a high - level game during the off - season [1][4] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival from mid - to late January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, hitting a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center of gravity keeps moving down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [3] Aluminum Ingots - The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range between 4.25% and 4.50% unchanged, and it may cut interest rates twice this year according to the dot - plot. Aluminum prices showed a strong and volatile trend yesterday [2] - In June, the price of bauxite fluctuated, and the overall cost of alumina didn't change much. Due to profit recovery, some previously shut - down alumina production capacity resumed, and new production capacity was released, leading to an increase in the operating capacity of alumina. There is an expectation of a decline in the prices of alumina and auxiliary materials, weakening the cost support for electrolytic aluminum [3] - In June, the off - season atmosphere in the downstream aluminum processing industry is strong. The weekly开工 rate of leading aluminum processing enterprises decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 60.9% compared with the previous week, with different performances in each segment [3] - On June 16, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 458,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from last Thursday and 19,000 tons from last Monday. The inventory reduction slowed down in mid - June. Affected by regional price differences and transfers, the inventory in Shanghai, Wuxi in East China and Gongyi in the Central Plains increased significantly, while that in Foshan, South China decreased greatly, and other regions remained stable. The overall low casting volume in the short term supports the inventory reduction trend, but the increase in shipments from the northwest and regional transfers due to price differences have put pressure on East China and the Central Plains, and the tight supply situation may be alleviated [3] - Overseas macro instability still exists. The current low inventory and the expectation of a higher proportion of molten aluminum provide strong support for aluminum prices, but the off - season pressure on the demand side limits the upward space. The spot of aluminum ingots in major consumption areas may face a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [4]

晨报 铝锭 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:上周铝价偏强震荡。数据显示，美国本月消费者信心指数跃升至 60.5，高于市场预期。本周美联储 FOMC 将公布利率决议和经济预期摘要， 关注海外宏观对市场情绪的指引。 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：旺季尾声 关注本周宏观指引 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 后期关注/风险因素：关注宏观预期变动 ...

原油-SC 宝城期货研究所 姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 原油 | 专题报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 2025 年 6 月 12 日 原油 专业研究·创造价值 美伊核谈判一波三折 地缘风波加剧 摘 要 近期全球原油期货市场在多重地缘政治危机的冲击下经历了 剧烈波动。俄乌战争的持续升级与中东地区美伊核谈判的动荡交 织，对原油供应、需求预期、金融投机及全球能源格局产生了深远 影响。 地缘政治事件通过三条传导链影响油价：直接供应中断（如油 田攻击）、运输通道封锁（如霍尔木兹海峡危机）、制裁政策变动 （如俄罗斯出口限制）。市场对不同类型事件的反 ...

Core Viewpoint - The newly elected South Korean President Lee Jae-myung and Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio have agreed to strengthen bilateral relations, emphasizing the importance of cooperation among South Korea, Japan, and the United States in addressing geopolitical crises [1]. Group 1 - President Lee Jae-myung's foreign policy is centered on pragmatism, aiming to enhance security cooperation among South Korea, Japan, and the United States [1]. - Both leaders reaffirmed the significance of the South Korea-Japan relationship and agreed to meet in person to further develop bilateral ties [1].

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the context of strong demand growth, insufficient supply release, and a long - term bullish trend in gold, geopolitical crises, continuous central bank gold purchases, a loose monetary environment, and the weakening of the US dollar's credit support the long - term strength of gold prices. The report maintains that gold is expected to reach a high of $3,800 - $4,000 per ounce this year, corresponding to a RMB price of 880 - 930 yuan per gram. For silver, it is expected to break through 10,000 yuan per kilogram this year, with the US silver above $42 per ounce. Investors can buy long positions in gold and silver on dips [3][26]. Summary by Relevant Aspects Silver Market Demand - Silver is the core material for photovoltaic cell conductive paste, with about 80 tons of silver consumed per 1GW of photovoltaic installed capacity. In 2024, global new photovoltaic installed capacity exceeded 600GW, and the demand for silver paste increased by over 25% year - on - year. In 2025, global photovoltaic installed capacity continued to grow steadily, leading to a rapid increase in the industrial demand for silver. It is predicted that global photovoltaic installed capacity will increase from 390GW in 2023 to 1000GW in 2030. In 2024, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity was 277.57GW, maintaining its global leading position and strongly supporting domestic silver demand. Additionally, the semiconductor industry, servers, and high - performance chips also show a surging demand for silver conduction [5]. Supply - 70% of global silver is a by - product of copper, lead, and zinc mines. Affected by the low prices of base metals, global silver production has declined in recent years. In 2024, global silver production was 25,000 tons, a 2% year - on - year decline. The contraction in supply has led to a 45% decline in the London Bullion Market Association's silver inventory over the past three years to 26,000 tons, only enough to cover 5 months of industrial demand [8]. Price Influence - Silver has both industrial and precious metal attributes and is affected by gold prices. The current domestic "silver/gold" ratio is around 11.2, which is in the undervalued area [11]. Geopolitical Factors - On June 1, 2025, the Russia - Ukraine conflict reached a historic turning point. Ukraine launched a special military operation, and Russia urgently initiated the deployment procedure of 300,000 - ton strategic nuclear weapons, casting a shadow of nuclear deterrence over Eurasia. In addition, the situations in India - Pakistan and the Middle East remain unstable, which drives up the prices of precious metals [14]. Central Bank Gold Purchases - The People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by 70,000 ounces in April 2025, which was the sixth consecutive month of gold purchases since November 2024. Since November 2022, the central bank has restarted gold purchases, buying 62.21 tons in 2022, 224.88 tons in 2023, 44.17 tons in 2024, and 14.9 tons in the first four months of 2025. As of the end of April, the central bank held 2,295 tons of gold, indicating the substitution demand for US dollar assets and the official recognition of the long - term value of gold [15]. Monetary Policy - On May 15, 2025, the People's Bank of China lowered the reserve requirement ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points, injecting about 1 trillion yuan of liquidity into the market. This was the second reserve requirement ratio cut since September 2024. Since 2021, China has been in a cycle of interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts, and the interest rate level has been declining. In addition, the monetary policies of major economies such as Europe and the United States are also becoming more accommodative. The Federal Reserve entered an interest rate cut cycle in December 2023, and there is still an expectation of several interest rate cuts this year. Europe is also in a long - term interest rate cut cycle. The global loose monetary environment remains unchanged, and the expectation of further interest rate cuts by major economies will further push up the price of gold [18][20]. US Dollar and Gold - The US federal government debt reached $37 trillion in May 2025, up from $36 trillion in November 2024, with the debt scale expanding at an accelerating pace. The Federal Reserve's continuous bond purchases have led to currency over - issuance, weakening the US dollar's purchasing power in the long run. When the US dollar's credit is damaged, gold, as a non - credit currency, is often favored. The US dollar is likely to enter a long - term depreciation channel, and gold will benefit from the currency substitution demand. Recently, the US dollar index has continued to decline, falling below 110 since January [22][23]. Gold Price Technical Analysis - Technically, the gold price is still supported by the support line. Every "pullback" is supported by the strong support line, and May was no exception. Now, gold has returned to the upward price trend [24].

晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：成本端受消息面提振 铝价暂偏强震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 重要声明： 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 5 月 22 日 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 证监许可【2011 ...