证券研究报告 2025 年 10 月 09 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 银行业理财研究 银行理财月度跟踪 相关研究： | 1. | 《2025中期策略-价值重估仍 | | --- | --- | | 在进行时》 | 2025.07.02 | | 2. | 《业绩底部修复，配置价值提 | | 升》 | 2025.09.05 | 行业评级：增持(维持) 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 -10.1 -28.1 -8.8 分析师：郭怡萍 证书编号：S0500523080002 Tel：(8621) 50295327 Email：guoyp@xcsc.com 中国人寿金融中心10楼 核心要点： 理财市场动态 2. 《业绩底部修复，配置价值提 今年以来，理财存续规模保持稳定增长，但与公募基金相比，理财规模增 长速度较慢。根据 Wind 援引基金业协会数据，截至 2025 年 8 月末，公募 基金规模为 36.25 万亿元，同比增长 17.3%。理财存续规模自上半年末开始 超过 30 万亿元，增速仅为个位数。一方面，由于存款利率低位环境下的资 金迁移效应，理财规模整体保持扩张态势。另一方 ...

本课题组成员： 研究员：黄桂煊 薛茹云 陈子卉 数据分析师：张稆方 数据来源：粤港澳大湾区（广东）财经数据中心、南财理财通 编者按：《机警理财日报》作为南财集团、21世纪经济报道、南财理财通的金牌理财专栏，目前细分了 现金、纯固收、固收+期权、固收+权益、混合、权益、衍生品七大类，已实现对银行理财市场的每日 追踪。为了进一步反映银行理财行业发展现状，南财理财通课题组特开设银行理财月报独家专题，力求 及时准确研判理财行业趋势、洞悉理财产品表现，以期为银行理财行业转型发展带来参考价值。 本期，南财理财通课题组发布8月份银行理财行业运作报告，对理财产品破净情况、新发情况、到期情 况和存续情况进行分析。 摘要： 存续情况：权益类理财产品为今年前8个月表现最好的理财产品，前8个月平均净值增长率高达 13.39%。混合类理财今年前8个月的平均净值涨幅为3.36%，而固收类理财产品平均净值增长率仅 1.68%。从稳健性来看，固收产品依旧有优势，前8个月平均最大回撤仅0.2%，而权益类理财的平均最 大回撤达到9.66%，混合类理财平均最大回撤为1.32%。 破净情况：南财理财通数据显示，截至8月末，32家理财公司共有2942 ...

本课题组成员： 研究员：黄桂煊 薛茹云 陈子卉 数据分析师：张稆方 数据来源：粤港澳大湾区（广东）财经数据中心、南财理财通 编者按：《机警理财日报》作为南财集团、21世纪经济报道、南财理财通的金牌理财专栏，目前细分了现金、纯固收、固收+期权、固收+权益、混合、权 益、衍生品七大类，已实现对银行理财市场的每日追踪。为了进一步反映银行理财行业发展现状，南财理财通课题组特开设银行理财月报独家专题，力求及 时准确研判理财行业趋势、洞悉理财产品表现，以期为银行理财行业转型发展带来参考价值。 本期，南财理财通课题组发布7月份银行理财行业运作报告，对理财产品破净情况、新发情况、到期情况和存续情况进行分析。 摘要： 破净情况：7月理财产品破净率破净比例为1.23%，环比6月上升0.69个百分点。其中固收类理财产品破净率上升至0.97%；混合类理财产品破净率4.69%，环 比下降0.89个百分点；权益类理财产品破净率从6月末的15.65%升至17.81%。 新发情况：2025年7月，理财公司加快产品新发，产品发行量环比涨超25%。此外，理财公司加大了产品在渠道端的营销力度，产品募集规模较为可观，募 集规模均值达到3.12亿元， ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [4] Core Insights - The bank wealth management market experienced steady growth in the first half of 2025, with a total scale of 30.67 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.53%. The scale of wealth management companies reached 27.48 trillion yuan, up 12.98% year-on-year. This growth is attributed to the migration of funds due to low deposit interest rates, indicating potential for continued stable expansion [6][14] - The structure of wealth management products shows that fixed-income products account for 97.20% of the total scale, with a slight decrease of 0.13 percentage points since the beginning of the year. This decline is expected to be related to bond market volatility and improved conditions in the equity market [6][16] - In terms of asset allocation, there has been an increase in cash and deposit assets as well as public funds, while allocations to bonds and interbank certificates of deposit have decreased. Specifically, the allocation ratios for bonds, interbank certificates, and equity assets have decreased by 1.7%, 0.6%, and 0.5% to 41.8%, 13.8%, and 2.4%, respectively [6][20] Wealth Management Product Yield - The yield of cash management wealth management products has continued to decline, with a 7-day annualized yield of 1.44% in July, down 6 basis points from the previous month and 40 basis points from December of the previous year. In comparison, the yield of money market funds was 1.25%, down 9 basis points month-on-month and 31 basis points year-on-year [8][24] - The average annualized yield for short-term pure fixed-income wealth management products was 2.15%, up 0.03 percentage points from the previous month, while the yields for medium-term and long-term products decreased [9][27] - The overall break-even rate for fixed-income + wealth management products increased to approximately 2.4% in July, indicating a rise from the previous month, although the number of deeply discounted products remains low [10][35] Market Performance - Over the past 12 months, the industry has shown a relative return of 13.49% and an absolute return of 25.64%, indicating strong performance compared to the market benchmark [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the performance and trends in the bank wealth management industry for June 2025, indicating a significant decline in the net loss rate of wealth management products, alongside stable issuance and maturity rates, reflecting a cautious yet optimistic market environment [2][4][12]. Break-even Situation - In June 2025, the break-even rate of wealth management products reached a new low of 0.54%, with fixed-income products at 0.17%, mixed products at 5.58%, and equity products at 15.65% [2][4][12]. - The majority of public fixed-income products maintained a break-even rate of 0 or saw a decrease in their break-even rates [4][11]. New Issuance Situation - A total of 1,795 wealth management products were issued by 32 companies in June 2025, remaining stable compared to May's 1,806 products [2][5]. - The structure of new products showed an increase in short-term, low-risk, high-liquidity products, with the proportion of level one risk products rising to 22.1% [6][8]. Maturity Situation - In June 2025, 1,089 closed-end RMB wealth management products matured, marking a 30.26% increase from the previous month [3][8]. - The overall performance compliance rate for matured products was 82.42%, with fixed-income products achieving a performance compliance rate of 48.25% [9][10]. Existing Situation - As of the end of June, there were 27,381 existing wealth management products, with fixed-income products accounting for 92.55% [11]. - The proportion of open-ended products increased to 54.79%, indicating a shift in product structure [11]. Product Performance - Equity wealth management products showed the best performance in the first half of the year, with an average net value growth rate of 5.82% [12][14]. - Fixed-income products had the lowest average net value growth rate of 1.26%, but exhibited superior stability with a maximum drawdown of only 0.19% [12][14].

Market Overview - The bond market is experiencing fluctuations with an overall balanced and loose funding environment. As of June 27, the weighted average of DR007 is 1.7%, and the yield on 10-year government bonds is at 1.65% [2] - In the stock market, easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East led to gains in major A-share indices, with the weekly increases for the ChiNext Index, CSI 1000 Index, and CSI 500 Index being 5.69%, 4.62%, and 3.98% respectively. The computer, defense, and non-bank financial sectors saw the highest weekly gains [2] Product Performance - As of June 27, 2025, there are 23,906 active public wealth management products, with 137 products having a cumulative net value below 1, resulting in a comprehensive broken net rate of 0.57%. The broken net rates for equity and mixed wealth management products are 48.78% and 6.55% respectively, while fixed income products have a broken net rate of 0.16% [3] - The broken net rates for fixed income products across various maturities remain low, all below 1%. The broken net rates for 1-2 year and 2-3 year products are slightly higher at 0.43% and 0.3% respectively [3] New Product Issuance - A total of 448 wealth management products were issued by 31 wealth management companies from June 23 to June 27, with the highest issuance from joint-stock banks. Notable issuers include Xinyin Wealth Management, Xingyin Wealth Management, Puyin Wealth Management, and Huaxia Wealth Management, which issued 41, 38, 33, and 32 products respectively [4] - The newly issued products are primarily R2 (medium-low risk), closed-end net value type, and fixed income public products, with only 5 mixed products (1.1% of total) and 2 equity products from Zhongyou Wealth Management [6] Product Observations - Zhongyou Wealth Management launched its first equity public products, indicating a strategic move into equity investment. The two products focus on technology and intelligent manufacturing, and FOF investment strategies, with a minimum holding period of 14 days and a starting investment of 10,000 yuan. The fundraising scale for these products was relatively small, with 4.7 million yuan and 5.7 million yuan respectively [8] - Huaxia Wealth Management's closed-end product failed to raise the required minimum amount, leading to its non-establishment [9] Yield Performance - All categories of RMB public wealth management products recorded positive returns last week. Fixed income products had an average net value growth rate of 0.0625%, while mixed, equity, and commodity financial derivative products had growth rates of 0.142%, 1.5611%, and 0.0601% respectively [10] - The average weekly yield for fixed income products across all maturities was positive, with the 2-3 year products showing the highest average net value growth rate of 0.0725% [10] Negative Yield Situation - The proportion of negative yield products slightly increased, with 3.8% of RMB public wealth management products experiencing negative returns last week. The proportions for fixed income, mixed, equity, and commodity financial derivative products were 2.99%, 17.45%, 13.51%, and 0% respectively [13] - Among fixed income products, the highest proportion of negative yield products was for those with maturities over 3 years at 12.27%, while the lowest was for products with maturities of less than 1 month at 1.12% [13] Industry Trends - Regulatory scrutiny on bank wealth management subsidiaries has intensified, with significant penalties being imposed. Recently, Zhongyin Wealth Management was fined 12.9 million yuan for various violations, marking the second instance of a bank wealth management subsidiary receiving a fine exceeding 10 million yuan this year. The total penalties for these two companies approached 30 million yuan, nearing last year's total [16]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the performance and trends in the banking wealth management industry for May 2025, indicating a significant decline in the net loss rate of wealth management products and a shift towards longer-term products in issuance. Group 1: Net Loss Situation - The net loss rate of wealth management products reached a new low of 0.71% by the end of May, down 0.25 percentage points from the previous month [4][8] - The net loss rates for fixed income, mixed, and equity wealth management products all decreased, with fixed income products dropping to 0.25% and mixed products to 7.07% [9] - Most wealth management companies reported a decrease or maintained a net loss rate of zero for their public fixed income products [9] Group 2: New Issuance Situation - In May 2025, 32 wealth management companies issued a total of 1,806 products, a decrease of over 15% from April, likely due to the "May Day" holiday [10] - The proportion of products with a term of over one year increased by 1.24 percentage points, indicating a trend towards longer-term products [12] - The average pricing for products with a term of less than one month fell to 2.14%, with expectations of approaching the 1% era [15] Group 3: Expiry Situation - A total of 836 closed-end RMB wealth management products expired in May, a decrease of 17.64% from the previous month [5][21] - The overall performance benchmark compliance rate for expired products was 84.32%, with fixed income products achieving a compliance rate of 51.58% [24][28] - The average annualized yield for fixed income products at expiry was 2.89%, with 1-2 year products yielding the highest at 3.32% [25][26] Group 4: Ongoing Situation - As of the end of May, there were 27,163 ongoing wealth management products, with fixed income products making up 92.41% of the total [34] - The proportion of open-ended products increased to 54.04%, while closed-end products decreased correspondingly [34] - The performance of equity products was the best among all types in the first five months of the year, with an average net value growth rate of 2.88% [38] Group 5: Performance by Company - The highest average net value growth rate for fixed income products in the first five months was achieved by Huayin Wealth Management at 1.21% [44] - For mixed products, Ningyin Wealth Management led with an average growth rate of 2.54% [46] - The report indicates that the performance of wealth management products varies significantly among different companies, reflecting their management capabilities and client expectation management [28]

Core Insights - The overall net loss rate of wealth management products in April decreased to below 1%, reaching 0.96%, down by 0.11 percentage points from March [2][3] - The issuance of wealth management products increased, with 2,192 products launched in April, a 6.05% rise from March, and the average fundraising scale of new products surged over 80% [2][5] - The performance of fixed-income products improved, with a net loss rate of 0.45%, while equity and mixed products saw an increase in their net loss rates [4][5] Breakdown by Category Net Loss Situation - The net loss rate for wealth management products fell to 0.96% by the end of April, with fixed-income products at 0.45% and equity products experiencing a rise in their net loss rates [2][4] - The net loss rate for fixed-income products decreased by 0.13 percentage points from March, while equity and mixed products saw increases of 0.28 and 5.26 percentage points, respectively [4][5] New Issuance Situation - In April, 31 wealth management companies issued a total of 2,192 products, marking a 6.05% increase from March [5] - The average fundraising scale for new products exceeded 80%, with three products raising over 7 billion yuan, including the "ESG Preferred Stable Direct Train" from Bank of China, which raised 74.99 billion yuan [2][7] Expiry Situation - A total of 1,015 closed-end RMB wealth management products expired in April, a decrease of 31.43% from the previous month [3][8] - The overall performance benchmark compliance rate for expired products was 80.99%, with fixed-income products achieving a compliance rate of 82.67% [9][10] Existing Situation - As of the end of April, there were 23,057 existing public wealth management products, with fixed-income products making up 92.37% of the total [11][12] - The proportion of short-term investment products (less than 3 months) continued to increase, while the share of products with longer investment periods decreased [12][13] Performance Insights - Fixed-income products showed the best performance in the first four months of the year, with an average net value growth rate of 0.76%, followed by equity products at 0.7% [13][14] - The average annualized yield for fixed-income products was 2.91%, with longer-term products (over 3 years) yielding the highest at 3.56% [10][14]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market experienced a significant adjustment in the first quarter of this year, with the China Bond Index falling by 0.79%. However, it began to stabilize towards the end of March, impacting the performance of various financial products [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The average net value growth rate for RMB fixed-income financial products in Q1 was 0.51%, translating to an annualized rate of only 2.04% [1]. - Foreign currency fixed-income products maintained relatively higher returns, with an average net value growth rate of 1.04% in Q1, equating to an annualized rate of approximately 4.16% [1]. - Equity products outperformed others, achieving an average net value growth rate of 2.81% in Q1 [1]. Group 2: Break-even Rates - As of the end of March, there were 22,169 public financial products, with 237 products having a cumulative net value below 1, resulting in a break-even ratio of 1.07%, which is an increase of 0.17 percentage points from the end of 2024 [1][3]. - The break-even rate for public financial products showed a trend of rising in January and February, followed by a decline in March, likely due to the stabilization of the bond market [1]. Group 3: Company-Specific Performance - Companies with higher break-even rates for public financial products included ICBC Wealth Management, BlackRock CCB Wealth Management, and Schroder Jiao Yin Wealth Management, with ICBC primarily having mixed financial products [3]. - Seven financial companies reported a break-even rate of 0, including Bank of China Wealth Management and Goldman Sachs ICBC Wealth Management, indicating strong performance in their public financial products [5]. - Companies like Agricultural Bank of China Wealth Management and CCB Wealth Management had lower average net value growth rates for their RMB fixed-income products in Q1 [9].