证券研究报告 2025 年 10 月 09 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 银行业理财研究 银行理财月度跟踪 相关研究： | 1. | 《2025中期策略-价值重估仍 | | --- | --- | | 在进行时》 | 2025.07.02 | | 2. | 《业绩底部修复，配置价值提 | | 升》 | 2025.09.05 | 行业评级：增持(维持) 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 -10.1 -28.1 -8.8 分析师：郭怡萍 证书编号：S0500523080002 Tel：(8621) 50295327 Email：guoyp@xcsc.com 中国人寿金融中心10楼 核心要点： 理财市场动态 2. 《业绩底部修复，配置价值提 今年以来，理财存续规模保持稳定增长，但与公募基金相比，理财规模增 长速度较慢。根据 Wind 援引基金业协会数据，截至 2025 年 8 月末，公募 基金规模为 36.25 万亿元，同比增长 17.3%。理财存续规模自上半年末开始 超过 30 万亿元，增速仅为个位数。一方面，由于存款利率低位环境下的资 金迁移效应，理财规模整体保持扩张态势。另一方 ...

Market Overview - The bond market experienced an unexpected correction last week, with an overall balanced and loose funding environment. The weighted average of DR007 on August 15 was 1.48%, and the yield on 10-year government bonds closed at 1.75% [2] - In the stock market, major A-share indices surged, with the ChiNext Index, STAR 50 Index, and Shenzhen Component Index recording weekly gains of 8.58%, 5.53%, and 4.55% respectively. The communication, electronics, and non-bank financial sectors led the gains [2] Product Performance - The number of underperforming products remains low, with 25,210 public wealth management products in existence as of August 17, 2025. Among these, 141 products had a cumulative net value below 1, resulting in a comprehensive break-even rate of 0.56% for bank wealth management. The break-even rates for equity and mixed wealth management products were 35.71% and 4.8%, respectively, while fixed income products had a break-even rate of 0.28% [3] - The break-even rates for fixed income products of various maturities remained low, with 1-2 year and over 3-year products slightly higher at 0.71% and 0.57% respectively [3] New Product Issuance - A total of 433 wealth management products were issued by 32 wealth management companies from August 11 to August 15, with joint-stock banks leading in issuance. Everbright Wealth issued 39 products, followed by Xinyin Wealth with 30 and Xinyin Wealth with 29 [4] - The newly issued products were primarily R2 (medium-low risk), closed-end net value type, and fixed income public products, with only 4 mixed products issued, accounting for 1.8%. No new equity or financial derivative products were launched [4] - Pricing trends showed a decline in most product maturities, with 1-2 year and 2-3 year products dropping below 2.80%, while products with maturities over 3 years saw a significant rebound to 2.55% [4] Investment Strategies - Notably, Xinyin Wealth launched a fixed income enhancement product named "Fengli Xindong Ruixiang 3M Holding Period Target Red 3 (Jixing Version)", which is a "fixed income+" product with a risk level of three and a minimum holding period of 90 days. The product's performance benchmark is based on a combination of various indices and deposit rates [5] Yield Performance - Fixed income wealth management yields declined, with an average net value growth rate of 0.0511% over the past week. Mixed and equity products had average net value growth rates of 0.2075% and 1.354%, respectively. Among fixed income products, those with maturities over 3 years had the highest average net value growth rate of 0.0794% [6] - The average annualized yield for cash public wealth management products in RMB, USD, and AUD was 1.338%, 3.924%, and 2.87%, respectively [6] - The proportion of negative yield products increased, primarily due to fixed income products, with 9.94% of RMB public wealth management products experiencing negative returns last week [6][7] Industry Trends - The scale of bank wealth management grew unexpectedly by approximately 2 trillion RMB to 32.67 trillion RMB by the end of July 2025, driven by the maturity of high-interest deposits and the relative attractiveness of wealth management products compared to deposit rates [8] - In August, the wealth management scale is expected to exceed 33 trillion RMB, with an annual target of 33.5 trillion RMB [8] - Last week, 16 new ESG-themed wealth management products were launched, indicating a rapid expansion of thematic wealth management offerings [9]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that by the end of July 2025, the scale of bank wealth management is expected to exceed expectations, growing by approximately 2 trillion yuan to reach 32.67 trillion yuan, driven by the maturity of high-interest three-year deposits and the relative attractiveness of wealth management products compared to deposit rates [1] Group 1 - The growth in bank wealth management is primarily attributed to the reallocation of deposits as high-interest three-year deposits mature [1] - The decline in deposit rates is occurring at a faster pace than the decrease in wealth management product yields, enhancing the appeal of these products [1] - Non-bank deposits are significantly related to the growth in wealth management scale, with an expected increase of at least 800 billion yuan attributed to cash management and short-term fixed-income products [1] Group 2 - The structure of wealth management shows that cash contributions are relatively low, while "fixed income plus" products are emerging as a strong performer, reflecting an increase in market risk appetite [1] - The wealth management scale is anticipated to surpass 33 trillion yuan in August, with an annual target of over 33.5 trillion yuan [1]

Market Overview - The bond market continued to experience fluctuations, with an overall balanced and loose funding environment. The weighted average of DR007 on August 8 was 1.425%, and the yield on 10-year government bonds closed at 1.69% [2] - In the stock market, major A-share indices saw gains, with the CSI 1000 index, Shanghai Composite Index, and CSI 500 index increasing by 2.51%, 2.11%, and 1.78% respectively. The defense, non-ferrous metals, and machinery equipment sectors led the weekly gains [2] Product Performance - The number of underperforming products remains low, with 25,003 public wealth management products in existence as of August 10, 2025, of which 179 had a cumulative net value below 1, resulting in a comprehensive break-even rate of 0.72%. The break-even rates for equity and mixed wealth management products were 38.1% and 5.46%, respectively, while fixed income products had a break-even rate of 0.4% [3] - Fixed income products with 1-2 year and over 3-year terms had slightly higher break-even rates of 0.9% and 1.12%, respectively [3] New Product Issuance - A total of 443 wealth management products were issued by 31 companies from August 4 to August 8, 2025. The leading issuers were Xinyin Wealth Management and Huaxia Wealth Management, each issuing 36 products, followed by Everbright Wealth Management with 32 products [4] - The newly issued products were primarily R2 (medium-low risk), closed-end net value type, and fixed income public products, with only 8 mixed products (1.8% of total) and no new equity products [4] - Pricing varied across different term products, with 2-3 year products seeing a rise of 24 basis points to 2.86%. In contrast, longer-term products (over 3 years) saw a decline of 36 basis points to 2.15% [4] Yield Performance - Fixed income wealth management products showed signs of recovery, with an average net value growth rate of 0.0718% over the past week. Mixed and equity products had average growth rates of 0.091% and 0.8529%, respectively. The highest growth rate among fixed income products was for those with over 3-year terms at 0.1075% [5] - The average annualized yield for cash public wealth management products in RMB, USD, and AUD was 1.364%, 3.91%, and 2.83%, respectively [5] - The proportion of negative yield products decreased, with 5.19% of RMB public wealth management products reporting negative returns over the past week. The negative yield rates for fixed income, mixed, and equity products were 4.02%, 23.3%, and 33.33%, respectively [5] Industry Trends - Since the opening of offline IPO participation for wealth management subsidiaries in March, only two companies, Everbright Wealth Management and Ningyin Wealth Management, have attempted this, with Ningyin being more active [6][7] - In the first half of 2025, 36 out of 69 city commercial banks without wealth management subsidiaries saw their asset management business scale decrease by over 10%, reflecting ongoing regulatory pressure [8] - Conversely, some city commercial bank wealth management subsidiaries experienced significant growth, with Ningyin Wealth Management's scale exceeding 600 billion RMB, marking a growth of over 25% compared to the beginning of the year [9]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperforming the Market" with an expected increase of over 10% relative to the market index in the next six months [5][19]. Core Insights - As of the end of 1H25, the total scale of wealth management products reached 30.67 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.53% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of approximately 1.53 trillion yuan [2][11][17]. - There is an observed increase in the risk appetite among individual investors, with the proportion of aggressive investors rising by 1.25 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024 [2][12][17]. - The recent adjustments in deposit rates, particularly the significant drop in one-year deposit rates below 1%, are expected to drive a gradual increase in demand for fund reallocation, as investors seek better returns in a low-interest environment [2][13][17]. - Regulatory policies and their implementation pace are crucial to monitor, especially following the negative feedback from the bond market in 2022, which has affected overall risk appetite [3][14][16]. Summary by Sections Wealth Management Scale - The total number of wealth management products in existence reached 4.18 million, with a year-on-year growth of 4.54% [11]. - Wealth management products from companies accounted for 89.61% of the total market scale, with a total scale of 27.48 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.98% [12]. Fund Reallocation Demand - Recent adjustments in deposit rates have led to a significant decline, with the average reduction exceeding 15 basis points, marking the largest cut in three years [13]. - The low-interest environment, combined with a recovering capital market, is expected to enhance risk appetite and increase the demand for fund reallocation [2][13][17]. Regulatory Policy Focus - The focus on regulatory policies is heightened, particularly in light of the need to stabilize net asset values and manage risk [3][14][16]. - The ongoing regulatory adjustments are anticipated to continue, necessitating close attention to the direction and pace of policy changes [3][16]. Investment Recommendations - The expectation is for the wealth management scale to maintain steady growth throughout 2025, driven by increasing risk appetite and the need for diversified investment products [2][17]. - Attention should be given to valuation differentiation and the evolving regulatory landscape as key factors influencing future performance [3][17].

"今年同行规模涨得太多，给了我们很大的压力，600亿以上的规模增长，竟然在同行中排名垫底。"临 近年中，一家城商行理财子人士对记者吐槽。 具体来看，城商行理财子中，规模增幅最大的是宁银理财，截至6月底规模超6000亿元，较年初增长 25%以上；其次是苏银理财，规模仍是城商行里最大的，接近7500亿元，较年初增长了近20%；杭银理 财规模较年初增长17%左右，规模超5000亿元；南银理财较年初增长了近15%，规模来到了5500亿元上 下；北银理财规模较年初增长超10%，规模为4000多亿元。 整体来看，城商行理财子规模前五中，前四家被长三角地区的理财子包揽，依次为苏银理财、宁银理 财、南银理财、杭银理财，最后一家为北银理财，规模也分别沿着7000亿、6000亿、5000亿、4000亿元 递延，其中在5000亿元规模区间，南银理财和杭银理财竞争胶着，目前杭银理财增势更猛。 虽然不如城农商行理财子增幅大，但是一些股份行理财子也在原本存续规模基数较大的基础上，继续稳 定增长，规模也不断突破原有上限。 有人欢喜，有人忧。《中国银行业理财市场半年报告（2025年上）》数据显示，截至2025年6月末，理 财公司存续产品只数 ...

21世纪经济报道记者 吴霜 上海报道 "今年同行规模涨得太多，给了我们很大的压力，600亿以上的规模增长，竟然在同行中排名垫底，"临 近年中，一家城商行理财子人士对记者吐槽。 近日，21世纪经济报道记者独家获取了部分理财子今年上半年的规模增长数据发现，今年上半年，城商 行理财子普遍取得了非常突出的规模增长，部分头部城商行理财子年中较上年初的规模增长就已经超过 了20%以上。 具体来看，城商行理财子中，规模增幅最大的是宁银理财，截至6月底规模达超6000亿元，较年初增长 26.94%；其次是苏银理财，规模仍是城商行理财子里最大的，为7453.81亿元，较年初增长了17.72%； 杭银理财规模较年初增长17.28%，达到了5143.89亿元；南银理财较年初增长了14.75%，规模来到了 5432.57亿元；北银理财规模较年初增长了11.79%，规模为4174.92亿元。 整体来看，城商行理财子规模前五中，前四家被长三角地区的理财子包揽，依次为苏银理财、宁银理 财、南银理财、杭银理财，最后一家为北银理财，规模也分别沿着7000亿、6000亿、5000亿、4000亿递 延，其中在5000亿规模区间，南银理财和杭银理财 ...

21世纪经济报道记者 吴霜 上海报道 "今年同行规模涨得太多，给了我们很大的压力，600亿以上的规模增长，竟然在同行中排名垫底，"临 近年中，一家城商行理财子人士对记者吐槽。 近日，21世纪经济报道记者独家获取了部分理财子今年上半年的规模增长数据发现，今年上半年，城商 行理财子普遍取得了非常突出的规模增长，部分头部城商行理财子年中较上年初的规模增长就已经超过 了20%以上。 具体来看，城商行理财子中，规模增幅最大的是宁银理财，截至6月底规模达到了6010.90亿元，较年初 增长26.94%；其次是苏银理财，规模仍是城商行理财子里最大的，为7453.81亿元，较年初增长了 17.72%；杭银理财规模较年初增长17.28%，达到了5143.89亿元；南银理财较年初增长了14.75%，规模 来到了5432.57亿元；北银理财规模较年初增长了11.79%，规模为4174.92亿元。 整体来看，城商行理财子规模前五中，前四家被长三角地区的理财子包揽，依次为苏银理财、宁银理 财、南银理财、杭银理财，最后一家为北银理财，规模也分别沿着7000亿、6000亿、5000亿、4000亿递 延，其中在5000亿规模区间，南银理财和 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the growth and performance of the banking wealth management market in the first half of 2025, indicating a stable increase in both the scale and returns of wealth management products. Group 1: Market Overview - As of the end of June 2025, the total scale of the wealth management market reached 30.67 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.38% from the beginning of the year and a year-on-year increase of 7.53% [1] - A total of 16,300 new wealth management products were issued in the first half of the year, raising 36.72 trillion yuan [1] Group 2: Product Performance - The average annualized return of wealth management products in the first half of 2025 was 2.12%, a decrease from the average return of 2.65% for the entire year of 2024 [3] - Wealth management products generated a total return of 389.6 billion yuan for investors in the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.18% [4] Group 3: Investor Behavior - The number of investors holding wealth management products reached 136 million by the end of June 2025, an increase of 8.37% from the beginning of the year [5] - Among individual investors, those with a risk preference classified as level two (steady) accounted for 33.56% as of mid-2025 [6] - The proportion of level five (aggressive) individual investors increased by 1.25 percentage points compared to the same period last year, while level one (conservative) investors also saw an increase of 1.03 percentage points [7] Group 4: Regulatory Environment - The Financial Regulatory Bureau issued the "Product Appropriateness Management Measures" on July 11, 2025, which will take effect on February 1, 2026, requiring financial institutions to understand products and clients to ensure suitable product sales [8]

Core Insights - The overall scale of the wealth management market in China reached 30.67 trillion yuan by the end of June 2025, reflecting a 2.38% increase from the beginning of the year and a 7.53% year-on-year growth [1] - A total of 16,300 new wealth management products were issued in the first half of the year, raising 36.72 trillion yuan in funds [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The average annualized yield of wealth management products was 2.12% in the first half of 2025, down from 2.65% for the entire previous year [3] - Wealth management products generated a total return of 389.6 billion yuan for investors in the first half of 2025, representing a 14.18% increase compared to the same period last year [3] - Fixed income products remain dominant, accounting for 97.2% of the total scale of wealth management products by the end of June, an increase of 0.32 percentage points year-on-year [2] Group 2: Investor Trends - The number of investors holding wealth management products reached 136 million by the end of June 2025, an increase of 8.37% from the beginning of the year [4] - Among individual investors, the proportion of those with a risk preference of level 5 (aggressive) increased by 1.25 percentage points compared to the same period last year [6] - The Financial Regulatory Authority has introduced new guidelines for financial institutions to ensure appropriate product sales to suitable clients, effective from February 1, 2026 [6]