人民财讯12月17日电，中信证券研报称，中信证券测算，2025年11月末，银行理财规模环比上升3000亿 元至33.8万亿元，同比增长10.1%。存款利率下行持续推动高息到期存款流向理财。综合来看，10—11 月规模增长约1.67万亿元，创资管新规后新高。展望12月，受季节性因素影响，理财规模或小幅收缩至 33万亿元，但1月初会很快修复。展望2026年，"固收+"理财产品仍是理财规模增长的重要发力点。结合 存款利率进入"1时代"的背景，长期来看储蓄的吸引力持续下降，同理财收益的平均收益中枢形成明显 差距。2026年全年理财规模有望达到35万亿元以上。 ...

11月银行理财规模延续上涨态势。业内人士认为，季节性规律与存款利率下行驱动的资金搬家成为 其核心增长动力。尽管12月季末银行考核带来的资金回表压力可能引发理财规模阶段性回调，但机构普 遍预计年底这一数字仍将站上33万亿元关口。 与规模增长形成反差的是，11月现金管理类、纯固收类理财产品收益率同步承压，同时年底前完成 估值整改的监管时限日趋临近，银行理财净值化转型进一步深化。在此背景下，理财机构积极调整策 略，通过多资产配置提升收益弹性，同时拉长封闭式产品期限以适应净值化转型。 季节性规律叠加资金搬家 面对收益端持续承压的局面，理财公司积极调整策略，"固收+"产品成为行业发力的核心方向。例 如，今年以来，多家理财公司明确表态，将通过直接投资或间接参与的方式，持续增持交易型开放式指 数基金（ETF），并布局指数策略、指数增强策略等含权理财产品，在提升收益弹性的同时助力资本市 场发展。 "我们的权益投资以ETF为核心工具，并在此基础上，灵活运用个股直接投资、其他基金配置及委 托投资等多种方式。去年以来，ETF已成为理财公司布局权益市场的重要手段。在选择ETF时，我们重 点考量估值水平、市场风格以及对后市的展望。目前 ...

Group 1: Corporate Pension Fund and Investment Performance - The core viewpoint indicates that in Q3 2025, corporate pension funds exhibited characteristics of "scale expansion, high investment returns, and market structure differentiation" [7][8] - The coverage and fund scale continue to expand, with a significant jump in equity investment returns driving overall performance improvement [7][9] - The number of established corporate pension plans increased by 2,770 to 175,000, and the number of participating employees rose by 275,200 to 33.32 million, with accumulated funds increasing by 24 billion to 409 billion [8][9] Group 2: Investment Management Market Dynamics - The current market for corporate pension fund trustees is dominated by insurance capital, with banks rapidly emerging, and competition strategies are diversifying, particularly towards small and micro enterprises [9][10] - As of Q3 2025, major players like China Life Pension and Ping An Pension dominate the market, holding nearly half of the management in terms of enterprises, employees, and asset amounts [9][10] - The total assets under management for corporate pension funds increased by 6.3% to 3.1 trillion, with smaller institutions experiencing faster growth [9][10] Group 3: Investment Returns and Product Performance - The investment returns for equity portfolios surged, with quarterly returns jumping from 1.02% to 4.82%, leading to an overall increase in investment returns from 1.00% to 4.26% [13][14] - The net asset value of equity products increased by 42.8% to 223.6 billion, with investment returns rising from 2.3% in Q2 to 22.9% in Q3 [14] - Fixed income products saw a slight decrease in net asset value by 5.95% to 1.596 trillion, with returns slightly declining to 0.68% [14] Group 4: Wealth Management and Market Trends - As of November 2025, the total wealth management scale reached 34 trillion, an increase of 4 trillion from the previous year, with a monthly increase of 0.35 trillion [15][16] - The average annualized yield for pure fixed income wealth management products fell to 2.42%, reflecting a downward trend in the performance benchmark since early 2022 [16][17] - The growth in wealth management scale is expected to provide strong support for credit bonds with a maturity of 3 years or less [17] Group 5: Real Estate Market Overview - The real estate sector saw a decline of 2.2% in the week, with new home transactions in 42 key cities dropping by 6.9% to 1.93 million square meters [18][19] - The macroeconomic environment is influenced by policies supporting the development of REITs and asset securitization, with the scope of underlying assets expanding to urban renewal facilities [19][20] - Local governments are implementing housing subsidies, with cities like Changzhou and Nanning introducing new policies to support homebuyers [19][20]

固收定期报告 证券研究报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 10 日 11 月理财规模稳步增长 ——理财规模跟踪月报（2025 年 11 月） 投资要点： 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 11 月理财规模稳步增长。我们测算，截至 2025 年 11 月末，理财规模合计 34.0 万 亿元，较上年末增加 4.0 万亿元，较上月末增加 0.35 万亿元。2025 年 11 月理财规 模增加 0.35 万亿，2023-2024 年的 11 月份理财规模平均增加 0.37 万亿，与季节性 规律接近。尽管三季度股市大幅上涨，但 2025 年三季度理财规模合计增量达 1.46 万亿，高于 2022-2024 年的同期增量。 11 月理财公司纯固收理财平均当月年化收益率回落。2022 年初以来，理财公司当月 新发人民币固收类理财的平均业绩比较基准震荡下行，我们测算，截至 2025 年 11 月末，理财规模合计 34.0 万亿元，较上年末增加 4.0 万亿元，较上月末增加 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The significant increase in the scale in the third quarter of this year is mainly due to the large - scale maturity of high - interest fixed deposits after the major banks lowered deposit rates in May, the acceleration of floating profit release during the valuation rectification process by the end of the year, and the fact that the third quarter is a traditional peak season for wealth management growth. Looking ahead, the wealth management scale is still expected to increase significantly in the fourth quarter, but the fluctuations in net value and scale will be amplified after the full completion of valuation rectification [3][6][9] Group 3: Summary by Related Directory Reasons for the High Growth of Wealth Management Scale in the Third Quarter - The main reason for the large - scale increase in the third quarter is the combination of the major banks' deposit rate cut in May and the large - scale maturity of high - interest fixed deposits. From 2022 - 2023, residents' fixed deposits increased significantly at high interest rates, with 3 - year fixed deposits maturing in the next two years. After the rate cut in May, the interest rate difference between 3 - year and 1 - year fixed deposits dropped to 30BP, and the proportion of residents' fixed deposits declined, indicating that some deposits moved to wealth management [6] - By the end of the year, it may be the final node for the full completion of the valuation rectification task. During the rectification process, floating profits will be accelerated, and wealth management institutions can use this advantage to attract customers. Although bond market interest rates rose significantly in the third quarter, the proportion of fixed - income products remained stable above 97%, contributing most of the incremental scale, and the number of investors continued to grow. The average annualized return of wealth management products in the third quarter was 2.28%, still having an advantage over 3 - year fixed deposits [6] - Seasonally, the third quarter is usually a peak season for wealth management growth. From 2019 - 2024, the average growth of wealth management scale in the third quarter was 1.28 trillion yuan [6] Other Concerns in the Third - Quarter Report of Wealth Management - In terms of asset allocation, the proportion of cash and deposits increased significantly, the proportion of inter - bank lending increased slightly, and the proportions of other categories decreased to varying degrees. Although the equity market performed well, the proportion of equity assets still decreased slightly [6] - The leverage ratio decreased significantly, indicating that wealth management has a strong demand for stable net value when the bond market fluctuates [7] - The proportion of closed - end products increased slightly. Some closed - end wealth management products can use the amortized cost method for valuation, which may have certain advantages after the valuation rectification [7] Future Outlook - Whether from a seasonal perspective or the trend of fixed - deposit maturity, the wealth management scale is still expected to increase significantly in the fourth quarter. However, with the full completion of the valuation rectification of wealth management, the fluctuations in net value and scale will be amplified [9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [4] Core Views - The wealth management market has shown stable growth in the existing scale this year, but the growth rate is slower compared to public funds. As of the end of August 2025, the scale of public funds reached 36.25 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 17.3%. The existing scale of wealth management has exceeded 30 trillion yuan since the end of the first half of the year, with a growth rate in single digits. This is attributed to the low deposit interest rate environment causing a migration of funds, while public funds continue to attract inflows due to the favorable equity market conditions [5][12] - In September, the average annualized yield of cash management wealth management products was 1.33%, down 2 basis points from the previous month and down 50 basis points from December of the previous year. The average annualized yield of money market funds was 1.21%, unchanged from the previous value, and down 35 basis points from December of the previous year. The yield difference between cash management products and traditional money market funds has been narrowing [6][15] - The overall break-even rate of wealth management products increased in September, with the break-even rate of fixed income + wealth management products at approximately 4.4%, continuing to rise from the previous month. The number of deeply broken products (unit net value < 0.99) remains low, indicating an upward trend in break-even rates due to increased volatility in the bond market and differentiated performance in the equity market [9][27] Summary by Sections Wealth Management Market Dynamics - The existing scale of wealth management has shown stable growth, but the growth rate is slower compared to public funds. The existing scale has exceeded 30 trillion yuan, with a growth rate in single digits. The low deposit interest rate environment has contributed to this expansion, while public funds have attracted more inflows due to favorable equity market conditions [5][12] Wealth Management Product Yields - In September, the average yield of pure fixed income wealth management products was 2.09%, down 0.47 percentage points from the previous month. The yield of fixed income + wealth management products was 1.65%, down 0.99 percentage points. The yields across different maturities of fixed income wealth management products have decreased, with short-term yields at 1.90%, medium-term at 2.38%, and long-term at 1.84% [7][22] - The average yield of short-term fixed income + wealth management products was 1.78%, down 0.37 percentage points, medium-term at 1.50%, down 0.88 percentage points, and long-term at 2.06%, down 2.12 percentage points [8][22] Wealth Management Product Break-even Rates - The break-even rate of wealth management products has increased, with the overall break-even rate of fixed income + wealth management products at approximately 4.4%, indicating a rising trend due to increased market volatility [9][27]

Market Overview - The bond market experienced an unexpected correction last week, with an overall balanced and loose funding environment. The weighted average of DR007 on August 15 was 1.48%, and the yield on 10-year government bonds closed at 1.75% [2] - In the stock market, major A-share indices surged, with the ChiNext Index, STAR 50 Index, and Shenzhen Component Index recording weekly gains of 8.58%, 5.53%, and 4.55% respectively. The communication, electronics, and non-bank financial sectors led the gains [2] Product Performance - The number of underperforming products remains low, with 25,210 public wealth management products in existence as of August 17, 2025. Among these, 141 products had a cumulative net value below 1, resulting in a comprehensive break-even rate of 0.56% for bank wealth management. The break-even rates for equity and mixed wealth management products were 35.71% and 4.8%, respectively, while fixed income products had a break-even rate of 0.28% [3] - The break-even rates for fixed income products of various maturities remained low, with 1-2 year and over 3-year products slightly higher at 0.71% and 0.57% respectively [3] New Product Issuance - A total of 433 wealth management products were issued by 32 wealth management companies from August 11 to August 15, with joint-stock banks leading in issuance. Everbright Wealth issued 39 products, followed by Xinyin Wealth with 30 and Xinyin Wealth with 29 [4] - The newly issued products were primarily R2 (medium-low risk), closed-end net value type, and fixed income public products, with only 4 mixed products issued, accounting for 1.8%. No new equity or financial derivative products were launched [4] - Pricing trends showed a decline in most product maturities, with 1-2 year and 2-3 year products dropping below 2.80%, while products with maturities over 3 years saw a significant rebound to 2.55% [4] Investment Strategies - Notably, Xinyin Wealth launched a fixed income enhancement product named "Fengli Xindong Ruixiang 3M Holding Period Target Red 3 (Jixing Version)", which is a "fixed income+" product with a risk level of three and a minimum holding period of 90 days. The product's performance benchmark is based on a combination of various indices and deposit rates [5] Yield Performance - Fixed income wealth management yields declined, with an average net value growth rate of 0.0511% over the past week. Mixed and equity products had average net value growth rates of 0.2075% and 1.354%, respectively. Among fixed income products, those with maturities over 3 years had the highest average net value growth rate of 0.0794% [6] - The average annualized yield for cash public wealth management products in RMB, USD, and AUD was 1.338%, 3.924%, and 2.87%, respectively [6] - The proportion of negative yield products increased, primarily due to fixed income products, with 9.94% of RMB public wealth management products experiencing negative returns last week [6][7] Industry Trends - The scale of bank wealth management grew unexpectedly by approximately 2 trillion RMB to 32.67 trillion RMB by the end of July 2025, driven by the maturity of high-interest deposits and the relative attractiveness of wealth management products compared to deposit rates [8] - In August, the wealth management scale is expected to exceed 33 trillion RMB, with an annual target of 33.5 trillion RMB [8] - Last week, 16 new ESG-themed wealth management products were launched, indicating a rapid expansion of thematic wealth management offerings [9]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that by the end of July 2025, the scale of bank wealth management is expected to exceed expectations, growing by approximately 2 trillion yuan to reach 32.67 trillion yuan, driven by the maturity of high-interest three-year deposits and the relative attractiveness of wealth management products compared to deposit rates [1] Group 1 - The growth in bank wealth management is primarily attributed to the reallocation of deposits as high-interest three-year deposits mature [1] - The decline in deposit rates is occurring at a faster pace than the decrease in wealth management product yields, enhancing the appeal of these products [1] - Non-bank deposits are significantly related to the growth in wealth management scale, with an expected increase of at least 800 billion yuan attributed to cash management and short-term fixed-income products [1] Group 2 - The structure of wealth management shows that cash contributions are relatively low, while "fixed income plus" products are emerging as a strong performer, reflecting an increase in market risk appetite [1] - The wealth management scale is anticipated to surpass 33 trillion yuan in August, with an annual target of over 33.5 trillion yuan [1]

Market Overview - The bond market continued to experience fluctuations, with an overall balanced and loose funding environment. The weighted average of DR007 on August 8 was 1.425%, and the yield on 10-year government bonds closed at 1.69% [2] - In the stock market, major A-share indices saw gains, with the CSI 1000 index, Shanghai Composite Index, and CSI 500 index increasing by 2.51%, 2.11%, and 1.78% respectively. The defense, non-ferrous metals, and machinery equipment sectors led the weekly gains [2] Product Performance - The number of underperforming products remains low, with 25,003 public wealth management products in existence as of August 10, 2025, of which 179 had a cumulative net value below 1, resulting in a comprehensive break-even rate of 0.72%. The break-even rates for equity and mixed wealth management products were 38.1% and 5.46%, respectively, while fixed income products had a break-even rate of 0.4% [3] - Fixed income products with 1-2 year and over 3-year terms had slightly higher break-even rates of 0.9% and 1.12%, respectively [3] New Product Issuance - A total of 443 wealth management products were issued by 31 companies from August 4 to August 8, 2025. The leading issuers were Xinyin Wealth Management and Huaxia Wealth Management, each issuing 36 products, followed by Everbright Wealth Management with 32 products [4] - The newly issued products were primarily R2 (medium-low risk), closed-end net value type, and fixed income public products, with only 8 mixed products (1.8% of total) and no new equity products [4] - Pricing varied across different term products, with 2-3 year products seeing a rise of 24 basis points to 2.86%. In contrast, longer-term products (over 3 years) saw a decline of 36 basis points to 2.15% [4] Yield Performance - Fixed income wealth management products showed signs of recovery, with an average net value growth rate of 0.0718% over the past week. Mixed and equity products had average growth rates of 0.091% and 0.8529%, respectively. The highest growth rate among fixed income products was for those with over 3-year terms at 0.1075% [5] - The average annualized yield for cash public wealth management products in RMB, USD, and AUD was 1.364%, 3.91%, and 2.83%, respectively [5] - The proportion of negative yield products decreased, with 5.19% of RMB public wealth management products reporting negative returns over the past week. The negative yield rates for fixed income, mixed, and equity products were 4.02%, 23.3%, and 33.33%, respectively [5] Industry Trends - Since the opening of offline IPO participation for wealth management subsidiaries in March, only two companies, Everbright Wealth Management and Ningyin Wealth Management, have attempted this, with Ningyin being more active [6][7] - In the first half of 2025, 36 out of 69 city commercial banks without wealth management subsidiaries saw their asset management business scale decrease by over 10%, reflecting ongoing regulatory pressure [8] - Conversely, some city commercial bank wealth management subsidiaries experienced significant growth, with Ningyin Wealth Management's scale exceeding 600 billion RMB, marking a growth of over 25% compared to the beginning of the year [9]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperforming the Market" with an expected increase of over 10% relative to the market index in the next six months [5][19]. Core Insights - As of the end of 1H25, the total scale of wealth management products reached 30.67 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.53% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of approximately 1.53 trillion yuan [2][11][17]. - There is an observed increase in the risk appetite among individual investors, with the proportion of aggressive investors rising by 1.25 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024 [2][12][17]. - The recent adjustments in deposit rates, particularly the significant drop in one-year deposit rates below 1%, are expected to drive a gradual increase in demand for fund reallocation, as investors seek better returns in a low-interest environment [2][13][17]. - Regulatory policies and their implementation pace are crucial to monitor, especially following the negative feedback from the bond market in 2022, which has affected overall risk appetite [3][14][16]. Summary by Sections Wealth Management Scale - The total number of wealth management products in existence reached 4.18 million, with a year-on-year growth of 4.54% [11]. - Wealth management products from companies accounted for 89.61% of the total market scale, with a total scale of 27.48 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.98% [12]. Fund Reallocation Demand - Recent adjustments in deposit rates have led to a significant decline, with the average reduction exceeding 15 basis points, marking the largest cut in three years [13]. - The low-interest environment, combined with a recovering capital market, is expected to enhance risk appetite and increase the demand for fund reallocation [2][13][17]. Regulatory Policy Focus - The focus on regulatory policies is heightened, particularly in light of the need to stabilize net asset values and manage risk [3][14][16]. - The ongoing regulatory adjustments are anticipated to continue, necessitating close attention to the direction and pace of policy changes [3][16]. Investment Recommendations - The expectation is for the wealth management scale to maintain steady growth throughout 2025, driven by increasing risk appetite and the need for diversified investment products [2][17]. - Attention should be given to valuation differentiation and the evolving regulatory landscape as key factors influencing future performance [3][17].