理财净值化

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赎回费隐忧下,二永跌出价值了吗?:固定收益专题研究
Guohai Securities· 2025-10-19 10:40
2025 年 10 月 19 日 固定收益专题研究 研究所: 证券分析师: 颜子琦 S0350525090002 yanzq@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 赎回费隐忧下,二永跌出价值了吗? 固定收益专题研究 最近一年走势 相关报告 《固定收益点评:利率债切券策略初探*颜子琦, 刘畅》——2025-10-17 势吗?*颜子琦,刘畅》——2025-10-11 《债券研究周报:交易承压,配置入场*靳毅,刘 畅》——2025-08-26 曲线走陡,二永跌幅居前 9 月,债市在市场风险偏好及利率上行 的多重影响下持续调整。9 月 5 日中国证监会就《公开募集证券投资 基金销售费用管理规定》(征求意见稿)(简称公募销售新规)公 开征求意见,进一步引发债市赎回压力。二永作为公募基金重仓品 种,流动性较高,9 月跌幅居前,5Y 及以上二永债收益率均突破年 内高点,中长端 AAA-二级资本债跌幅更大,曲线走陡。 《固定收益点评:关税战升级,债市能重启下行趋 二永债 9 月赎回新高,四季度供给不弱 从供给结构看,9 月二永 债赎回新高,净融资缺口扩大,银行面临资本补充压力,四季度本 就为二永债供给旺季,在" ...
观察丨“低波”导向下,“戴枷锁”的银行理财猛配存款
券商中国· 2025-07-31 12:14
券商中国记者查阅中国银行业理财市场2025年半年报和2024年年报,关于理财持仓资产结构,有几个值得深剖 的变化: 渠道和客户屡屡强调的"低波"导向,犹如一把枷锁,束缚了理财配置端。 一是上半年理财配置现金及存款的余额和占比是上升的:2024年末32.13万亿元理财产品投资资产中,配置的 现金及银行存款占比是23.9%,约为7.68万亿元;而到了今年6月末,32.97万亿元投资资产中现金及银行存款 占比上升到了24.8%,约为8.18万亿元。 二是反之,债券配置占比由43.5%下降到了41.8%,配置余额由18.6万亿元下降到了18.33万亿元; 三是权益类资产的余额和占比均出现下降:去年末余额为0.83万亿元,占比2.58%;今年六月末为0.78万亿 元,占比为2.38%。 可以看出,理财资金的投资风格,愈发保守了。 "异常增长"的存款 在一名大型理财公司固收投资经理看来,现金及存款占比上升是一种"异常增长"。 回溯近三年,理财资金通过保险资管通道配置了大量三年期协议存款,直到去年"手工补息"被叫停后,这一行 为降温。有专业理财从业人士预估:全市场通过保险资管通道配置的协议存款约4万亿元,每年到期量1/3。 ...
理财净值化与信用债变局
CMS· 2025-07-22 09:40
Group 1: Report's Core View - The capital flow of wealth management products is an important influencing factor in the credit bond market. This report analyzes the changes in wealth management scale and bond - allocation behavior under the background of net - value transformation to enrich the credit bond analysis framework [1][9] Group 2: Wealth Management Scale Trends 2.1 Overall Scale and New Product Term - Deposit interest rate decline drives deposit transfer to wealth management, leading to an increase in wealth management scale. As of Q1 2025, the wealth management product scale reached 29.14 trillion yuan. The average 1 - year fixed - deposit rate of the six major banks was only 0.96% in June 2025, while the wealth management yield was 3.01%. Newly issued products are mainly closed - end, and the term of new products has been extended, with the proportion of new wealth management products with a term over 1 year reaching 47% in June 2025, up about 14 percentage points from March 2024 [10][12] 2.2 Main Expansion Force - Open - ended products are more popular among individual investors. In 2024, the scale of open - ended products increased by 2.7 trillion yuan year - on - year, while that of closed - ended products increased by only 160 billion yuan. The minimum - holding - period products are the main expansion force of wealth management products in 2024, balancing liquidity and yield. As of the end of June 2025, the average maximum drawdown of minimum - holding - period products in the past 1 year was 0.18%, the lowest among open - ended products, and the average annualized yield in the past 1 year reached 2.53%, about 70bp higher than daily - open products [16][17] Group 3: Impact of the "Impossible Triangle" on Bond - Allocation Style 3.1 Bond Allocation Changes - To stabilize the net value of wealth management products, wealth management has reduced bond allocation in recent years and increased the allocation of cash and bank deposits with higher liquidity and lower valuation fluctuations. As of Q1 2025, the scale of wealth management investment in bonds, cash and bank deposits, and inter - bank certificates of deposit was 13.68 trillion yuan, 7.27 trillion yuan, and 4.20 trillion yuan respectively, accounting for 43.9%, 23.3%, and 13.5% of the total investment assets, with changes of - 6.5%, 5.8%, and 0.2% respectively compared to Q4 2022 [23] 3.2 Credit Bond Allocation - Credit bonds are the main investment direction of wealth management funds, accounting for 41% of the total investment assets. As of the end of 2024, the proportions of interest - rate bonds and credit bonds in bond investment were 5% and 95% respectively. In Q1 2025, wealth management preferred to allocate urban investment bonds, secondary perpetual bonds, and industrial bonds, accounting for 35%, 26%, and 23% of credit bonds respectively. Due to the short - term nature of most wealth management products and the instability of the liability side, the duration of credit bond allocation is short [33][37] 3.3 Increased Fund Entrustment - It is difficult for wealth management to meet the performance benchmark by directly investing in bonds. In Q2 2025, the wealth management performance benchmark dropped to 2.88%, still 84 - 87bp higher than the yields of 3Y AA(2) urban investment bonds and 7Y AA+ secondary perpetual bonds. With the blockage of insurance and trust channels, wealth management has increased entrusted investment in funds. The proportion of wealth management's penetrated investment in funds has been rising, indicating an increasing importance of entrusted funds [39][47] 3.4 Bond - Buying Behavior after Self - Built Valuation Model Restrictions - The "self - built valuation model" is a new way for wealth management to smooth net - value fluctuations but has problems such as liquidity risk and unfair returns. After the restriction of the self - built valuation model, some wealth management may reduce the allocation of long - term secondary perpetual bonds and medium - low - rated credit bonds and increase the allocation of short - term high - rated bonds [52][53] Group 4: Impact of Wealth Management on the Credit Bond Market 4.1 Influence of Scale Changes - The bond - allocation rhythm of wealth management is highly correlated with the scale change, which affects the credit spread trend. When the wealth management scale rises, the credit spread tends to narrow; when it falls, the credit spread tends to widen. The seasonal change of wealth management scale also makes the credit spread show seasonal characteristics. Quarter - beginning is a good time for credit spread compression, especially from August to the end of the year. September is a good allocation window, but beware of widening credit spreads in November [3][57] 4.2 Observing Market Adjustment from Wealth Management - During bond market adjustments, pay attention to the risk of "redemption tides". The "redemption tide" occurs when wealth management passively sells bonds due to significant net - value drawdowns. The "redemption tide" is accompanied by an increase in the net - value break - even rate. When the weekly环比 change of the 4 - week rolling net - value break - even rate exceeds 6%, the possibility of a "redemption tide" increases. The maximum drawdown rate of wealth management products can be a leading indicator of credit spread changes, leading by about 7 - 60 days [3][64]